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Author Topic: Took Hanover  (Read 1593 times)
Esab
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« on: September 04, 2006, 08:46:10 PM »

Folks, Took Hanover was vicious in the Cane Pace...beat a length from post 8...Campbell left and tucked 4th, went 1st over vs. Teague juice....he used this horse like he was sittin' behind Life Sign....he's gonna win everything else he's eligible to for Daley (Noel, not Ryan and Ardena
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MWG
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2006, 08:54:10 PM »

Folks, Took Hanover was vicious in the Cane Pace...beat a length from post 8...Campbell left and tucked 4th, went 1st over vs. Teague juice....he used this horse like he was sittin' behind Life Sign....he's gonna win everything else he's eligible to for Daley (Noel, not Ryan and Ardena

Esab - easy on my friend Teague about "juice", never has had a positive or violation on any horse. As far as Took Hanover, a very nice colt, but he'll have to draw inside of Total Truth to beat him on a half-mile.
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Esab
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2006, 09:05:25 PM »

Juice is mild term. But appropriate, for Total Truth was crappy in the Adios and hadn't raced since. Adios was 3 weeks ago. Still no harm intended.

I think the eyebrow-raising term is ""rocket fuel'' which I dind't use!
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MWG
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2006, 09:37:20 PM »

Juice is mild term. But appropriate, for Total Truth was crappy in the Adios and hadn't raced since. Adios was 3 weeks ago. Still no harm intended.

I think the eyebrow-raising term is ""rocket fuel'' which I dind't use!

For my own info after being a race fan and bettor for the past 40 years, why must people resort to accusations such as "juicing" against people they don't even know and who have a spotless record ? I don't get it. As far as the Adios, Truth finished 2nd in elim, 3rd in final. As far as a 3-week break, how many starts has Artistic Fella had since M1 Pace ? They all need a break at this level. Next start is LBJ. This horse is the top $$$ earner this year and has won the N.A. Cup, Hoosier Cup, 3rd in the Adios, and now the Cane Pace, always a legitimate contender and threat in any 3YO event.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2006, 09:37:44 PM »

Esab - easy on my friend Teague about "juice", never has had a positive or violation on any horse. As far as Took Hanover, a very nice colt, but he'll have to draw inside of Total Truth to beat him on a half-mile.

I would say that on a more neutral half (like Delaware for instance) that Total Truth would've had his hands full even with the post advantage.

Great races from both.  To me, the disappointment of the afternoon was Dave Panlone.  Couldn't convert the trip at all.

Best,
EW
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MWG
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2006, 09:45:04 PM »

I would say that on a more neutral half (like Delaware for instance) that Total Truth would've had his hands full even with the post advantage.

Great races from both.  To me, the disappointment of the afternoon was Dave Panlone.  Couldn't convert the trip at all.

Best,
EW

What is a neutral half ? Truth is not home at Freehold. As far as Dave Panlone, again, a very good horse, but unable to beat Total Truth on the lead or from behind, example Hoosier Cup. IMO, in the LBJ, Jereme's Jet and Armbro Deuce are the main contenders versus Total Truth.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2006, 09:48:14 PM »

What is a neutral half ? Truth is not home at Freehold. As far as Dave Panlone, again, a very good horse, but unable to beat Total Truth on the lead or from behind, example Hoosier Cup. IMO, in the LBJ, Jereme's Jet and Armbro Deuce are the main contenders versus Total Truth.

More "neutral" in referring to bias.  Freehold has a nasty front bias -- IMO, probably the worst in the country for any well-simulcasted track.

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EW
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2006, 09:51:38 PM »

More "neutral" in referring to bias.  Freehold has a nasty front bias -- IMO, probably the worst in the country for any well-simulcasted track.

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EW

If you think Freehold has a front-end bias, welcome to Harrington, which, IMO, plays right into Morgan's hands. That boy does know how to get a horse to the front on a half-mile track.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2006, 09:55:12 PM »

If you think Freehold has a front-end bias, welcome to Harrington, which, IMO, plays right into Morgan's hands. That boy does know how to get a horse to the front on a half-mile track.

Harrington definitely has a bias.  I just think that Freehold is worse.  Either way, my point is that things will be interesting on Jug day with a more neutral track.

Best,
EW
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2006, 10:06:22 PM »

you think the delaware track is nuetral? ..no passing lane ..very tuff to go the overland route, to bet a come from behind horse at delaware is a very risky prop. ..now a come from behind trotter... thats a different story, but as for pacers, it is a very front end biased venue..only nfld park seems to be a neutral half miler
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MWG
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2006, 10:09:23 PM »

Harrington definitely has a bias.  I just think that Freehold is worse.  Either way, my point is that things will be interesting on Jug day with a more neutral track.

Best,
EW

Should be a great race, of course, I'm biased to Total Truth because he's DE owned. The horse I fear the most, however, is Armbro Deuce, Blair Burgess's colt, beat Truth's stablemate, twice, at Flamboro, in record time, on a half-mile track.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2006, 10:09:38 PM »

you think the delaware track is nuetral? ..no passing lane ..very tuff to go the overland route, to bet a come from behind horse at delaware is a very risky prop. ..now a come from behind trotter... thats a different story, but as for pacers, it is a very front end biased venue..only nfld park seems to be a neutral half miler

It's tough to go overland at ANY half.  You are giving up about 4-6 lengths.

Delaware has far, far, far less of a bias than Freehold though, IMO.  I have a little bit different way of doing biases -- but it's just my opinion.

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EW
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2006, 10:13:51 PM »

It's tough to go overland at ANY half.  You are giving up about 4-6 lengths.

Delaware has far, far, far less of a bias than Freehold though, IMO.  I have a little bit different way of doing biases -- but it's just my opinion.

Best,
EW

I loved the yeat Jet Laag won the Senior Jug at Delaware; he had competed at both Harrington and Dover that year for Toscano; he was, IMO, one of those unusual horses that did better on a half than a mile track.
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njhorseman
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2006, 07:29:46 AM »

I would say that on a more neutral half (like Delaware for instance) that Total Truth would've had his hands full even with the post advantage.

Great races from both.  To me, the disappointment of the afternoon was Dave Panlone.  Couldn't convert the trip at all.

Best,
EW

Delaware is a "neutral half"? It has a worse front end bias than Freehold. The stretch at Freehold is 100 ft. longer (480 vs 380) than Delaware's, and it has a passing lane to boot. That is why winning your first heat in the Jug is an absolute necessity if you want to have a shot at winning the second heat and the race. With post positions based on order of finish in the first heat you are dead meat in the Jug if you are outside.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2006, 10:07:45 AM »

Delaware is a "neutral half"? It has a worse front end bias than Freehold. The stretch at Freehold is 100 ft. longer (480 vs 380) than Delaware's, and it has a passing lane to boot. That is why winning your first heat in the Jug is an absolute necessity if you want to have a shot at winning the second heat and the race. With post positions based on order of finish in the first heat you are dead meat in the Jug if you are outside.

I think the stretch length actually HURTS, because it sharpens the turns.  You don't lose as much ground at Delaware (like Nfld) from the turns to the stretch.

Obviously it's much to your advantage to ALWAYS have a good post, and in the Jug, it's a natural "selection process" because the better horses will consistenly have better posts (by virtue of finishing better in the first heat).

The interesting part about Freehold is that first over is better than second over.  It's one of the very few tracks that -- when corrected for odds (the only way I can "fairly" adjust for skill at a track I don't carefully handicap) -- first over is consistently better than second over.

Like I said before, I have different methods of determining bias.  I may be alone on this opinion, but eh.

Best,
EW
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2006, 10:21:03 AM »

Delaware is a "neutral half"? It has a worse front end bias than Freehold. The stretch at Freehold is 100 ft. longer (480 vs 380) than Delaware's, and it has a passing lane to boot. That is why winning your first heat in the Jug is an absolute necessity if you want to have a shot at winning the second heat and the race. With post positions based on order of finish in the first heat you are dead meat in the Jug if you are outside.

if you finish third ..you do have a one in three chance of getting the nine post which to me is better than the4..5.. 6..7..and 8, since you are behind one of the winners
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