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Author Topic: More Hawthorne Bias quotes  (Read 1671 times)
APCD Dan
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« on: November 25, 2005, 11:27:03 PM »

Taken from a Hersch article in DRF about Perry Compton:

<<<Compton is a smart rider, too. The state of the Hawthorne racetrack often has much to do with the results of Hawthorne races, something Compton has fully grasped.

"You really have to pay attention to the bias here," Compton said this week. "And it's not just from day to day, but even from race to race. You have to try to figure out where you need to be before you go out there for any race.">>>>

Then how in the hell are bettors supposed to know anything?  The bias sort of tosses out any real handicapping!

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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2005, 12:29:58 AM »

Taken from a Hersch article in DRF about Perry Compton:

<<<Compton is a smart rider, too. The state of the Hawthorne racetrack often has much to do with the results of Hawthorne races, something Compton has fully grasped.

"You really have to pay attention to the bias here," Compton said this week. "And it's not just from day to day, but even from race to race. You have to try to figure out where you need to be before you go out there for any race.">>>>

Then how in the hell are bettors supposed to know anything?  The bias sort of tosses out any real handicapping!

Race to race bias. All the local geniuses believe in that.

No wonder Perry Compton has such a great winning  %
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2005, 12:39:05 AM »

You know what, when I think about it, for Marcus to report about this "race to race bias" like it is some sort of legitimate news sucks. I am going to complain to his superiors about shoddy reporting.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2005, 03:04:03 AM »

Ya know, I think it's even worse than that -- I think the track bias changes DURING THE RACE!

Some races go fast early and slow late. Some go slow early and fast late. The dregs go slow early and slower late. And once in awhile, a race goes fast early and fast late.

This phenomenon, known as PACE SCENARIO and / or RACE SHAPE to the unwashed, is without a doubt perplexing to most Hawthorne bettors, some of which seem to think that a PAR CHART is a visual layout of their local miniature golf course.   
 
Clearly, the track surface is some sort of alien life form that is mutating and morphing on a moment-to-moment basis. This makes the racing SO unpredictable at Hawthorne that three favorites won yesterday in nine races, which computes to the same 33% (approx.) win rate of favorites at just about every other track.

::::yawn::::
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2005, 03:55:47 AM »

Taken from a Hersch article in DRF...

Could this guy Hersh possibly be any more sour in his writings about Hawthorne?

Yeah, the weather sucks, and yep, the racing experience at Hawthorne is a bit more bleak than at AP. We get it.

Tell ya what, Marcus -- I'll take your job being at the track every day, getting paid to make selections and write about racing, and you can have my shitty job and sit in a 6' X 6' cubicle for 10 hours every day. Deal?
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Thomas Graham
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2005, 04:38:12 AM »

A race-to-race bias means, now follow along with me here kiddies ---- THAT MEANS THERE IS NO BIAS.

Now, as far as the condition of the track, that's another story.  I've heard from enough people that the track there isn't maintained as well as the old Sportman's track --- but one more time for the bias-impaired --- IF THE BIAS CHANGES FROM RACE TO RACE, THEN THERE IS NO BIAS. 

Simple as that.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2005, 03:04:00 PM »

When I think about it, all Marcus did was report a quote. He didn't say that "race to race" stuff himself. He did write that the person who uttered the quote was smart ...

But I know what happens. Those tractors I reported on last week, when they drive around the track, one time they will drive 0.3 mph, and the next time 0.32 mph, and that's what creates the "race to race bias", with the sand particles standing at a slightly different angle and all. It's so obvious.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2005, 03:37:00 PM by CLOCKERTERRY » Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2005, 04:45:20 PM »

"You really have to pay attention to the bias here," Compton said this week. "And it's not just from day to day, but even from race to race.
You have to try to figure out where you need to be before you go out there for any race."

The more I think about it, the more ridiculous this gets. Think about that statement there. Perry is telling us there is a race to race bias, but he's deciding ahead of time how to ride in the face of the NEW bias that is going to be out there next race. HOW DOES HE KNOW? Is it posted in the jockey's room ahead of time or something? "Race 5, slow on the rail, favoring speed in the 2 path. Race 6, golden rail, but advantage closers."

My new theory is that Perry and Marcus were just pulling our leg, trying to find out who is reading the DRF articles. No one could really be so stupid to say that, never mind write it with a straight face. This is more ridiculous even than anything O'Donnell ever wrote.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2005, 05:38:55 PM »

Time to change to Polytrack. No bias there.

One day all cold weather tracks will poly. saving the dirt tracks for warm weather. (saratoga, monmouth, AP)
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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
edwarren
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2005, 06:08:03 PM »

All I know is - when youse gets old and I'm gettin there, you can't run as fast as Youse Usta.
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g3tPWNed_24
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2005, 04:25:22 AM »

well from the early reports it seems polytrack would be very good at both of our thoroughbred tracks(seems we agree for a change clockeral). at arlington you got 5k claimers runnin 6 panels in 109 and change and people wonder why so many horses came off that track in bad shape this year. last year in december the hawthorne track literally looked like a beach and you could hear the horses thumping hard off it, i was surprised they let racing go on with the track in that condition. bottom line is how much do they care about the bettors,jocks/ horseman and last but definately not least the animals themselves? my guess is they dont care too much as long as theyre rakin in the money and linin their pockets
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