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Author Topic: online gambling - now illegal, cept for dem horses  (Read 3885 times)
Jim C
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« Reply #25 on: July 12, 2006, 01:13:18 PM »

I would think the loop holes of using phone card and the phone lines in general will be covered in the Senate version of the bill and then written into the final bill.

What is strange to me is that those "big bettors" who insist on betting offshore and in effect doing an end around of racing are only killing the very product they are betting on. NONE of that money comes back into the system so whose greed is worse? The tracks and the take out they have or the "big bettors" who rape the very product that they are making money off of? The tracks provide a service and a product which they should be compensated for and yes make a profit as well. People who bet and win are making a profit on those winnings, so what they are doing is bypassing the system to make MORE of a profit without helping to fund the product they are profiting on. IMHO that is worse than the high takeout the tracks charge. Some rebate program I think will be worked out soon for the top customers who bet through the system but I dont see that happening until this law is passed. But the more the system gets abused by these whales, the greater the chance the game itself will continue to suffer and have to depend on slots and other forms of revenue streams. The tracks are not innocent in this situation, I remeber when some tracks had reduced take out and the NY tracks would not carry those tracks signal.
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Stat Man Steve
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« Reply #26 on: July 12, 2006, 02:17:58 PM »

NY-OTB wouldn't take the deduced take-out signals, since it 'cut' into their profit margins (i.e. could make their patrons bet only on tracks with higher takeouts).
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David
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« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2006, 08:30:22 PM »

Jim C, this has been debated before, but the vast majority of "whale" off shore money does hit the pools, it isn't "booked" by the off shores. If the tracks really wanted to cut them off they could, but obviously they don't want to. Some of the stuff that might be getting booked is the more retail trade if you will or the lower bettors who play through pinnalce and such places - but even then they do dump some action into the pools.

Typical "whale" off shore business model, typical 20 percent merged takeout, pay 6 percent (much higher than normal simo) for simo fees to somewhat legitimate sources (lewiston/indian casinos/god knows where else) return 10 percent in rebates, keep 4 percent gross profit.

If you actually think they book these guys action, you would have to believe that the "whales" that are betting with them aren't coming within 10 percent of break even (that is to cover thier rebate) that is a 1.80 ROI based on 2.00 wager, otherwise the supposed business model would be a complete drain within no time. if you really think that "whales" can't beat a 1.80 roi, your not being realistic. Granted they would be able to "cancel" some wagers out and not feed them into the tote, but with the higher end bettors not so much due to the typical pattern of thier betting.

The question would come, if these "whales" weren't getting this incentive would they be playing into these pools, my guess is no, others may guess otherwise.
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edwarren
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« Reply #28 on: July 12, 2006, 08:44:17 PM »

Hope you may know, this: how much of their dough is US money and how much from Europe/Asia?
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big wally
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« Reply #29 on: July 12, 2006, 09:00:58 PM »

Well said David and I Agree 100%. The tracks would like you to believe this is now the MAJOR problem of racing... Here in Illinois, I think the public  lost interest in the Sport...¬†
« Last Edit: July 13, 2006, 01:22:51 PM by big wally » Report to moderator   Logged
David
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« Reply #30 on: July 12, 2006, 09:16:41 PM »

Hope you may know, this: how much of their dough is US money and how much from Europe/Asia?

The whales are almost exclusivley US Based, people want to bet what they are familar with, not sure if they answers your question or not.
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Jim C
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« Reply #31 on: July 12, 2006, 11:53:48 PM »

The point is while the tracks may get some of that money the purse account does not or if it does it is almost nothing. This is why it hurts racing so much and has the effect it does on the end product. The highest take out should be on all off track betting no matter where it is. The least amunt of take out should be on track bets. In all cases all the money should flow trough the system so that all involved get their fair share. The off shore freeloaders should either pay up or be cut off period. If those whales dont bet the horses anymore who cares? We arent getting much money from them anyway.
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edwarren
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« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2006, 05:07:37 AM »

I think most of it is booked. If it got layed off, there would be no profit.  Bookmaking is illegal in the US.

They keep records of all their activity. They know who wins and who loses, and how and when they cash. A smart statistician could make the determination. Could determine the true probability of success or failure. It's not complicated.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2006, 05:31:35 AM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
David
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« Reply #33 on: July 13, 2006, 07:52:20 AM »

I think most of it is booked. If it got layed off, there would be no profit.  Bookmaking is illegal in the US.

They keep records of all their activity. They know who wins and who loses, and how and when they cash. A smart statistician could make the determination. Could determine the true probability of success or failure. It's not complicated.

Ed, read my post, if they are booking all or most of it like you say you would have to have the opinion that the "whales" are not getting a 1.80 ROI,, that is they get less than 90 cents back for each dollar they wager, which I have a hard time believing.
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big wally
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« Reply #34 on: July 13, 2006, 08:45:05 AM »

Guys, READ THIS... The MONEY OF THE SO-CALLED WHALES DOES GO INTO THE POOLS.... My understanding thsess off-shore places pay double commision to the tracks  of normal simo fees.... LOOK THEY ARE GETTING 10% OR MORE BACK IN REBATES(not ON nyra RACES) THERE IS NO WAY THESE OFF SHORE PLACES COULD STAY IN BUSINESS IF THEY BOOKED...
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edwarren
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« Reply #35 on: July 13, 2006, 12:45:42 PM »

Wally, I don't get it. Can you show me like this?

Say $10,000 bet offshore. The book owes rebates. Then 2 scenarios:

1) Book $5000 - Lay-off $5000. How much profit assuming the book pays out $4000. What's his profit?

2). Lay-off the entire $10,000. What's his profit?

Ed.
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Valuist
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« Reply #36 on: July 13, 2006, 12:56:44 PM »

IRG definitely is pushing the money into the pools.
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edwarren
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« Reply #37 on: July 13, 2006, 01:07:19 PM »

If he lays off the entire amount, it's a wash, right? He makes zip AND charges no fee and must pay a rebate. So, he's GOT to book it, right?

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David
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« Reply #38 on: July 13, 2006, 01:11:29 PM »

Ed I think I went through this earlier in the thread, but to summarize the blended takout is 20 percent, he pays 6 percent for the signal from whomever (Lewistown Maine, Indians etc.) he gives 10 percent back to the bettors as a rebate, he is left with 4 percent gross profit.

If you think they book it, you would have to believe these "whales" are not picking enough winners to get an ROI of over 1.80 which any decent handicapper can surely get.
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David
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« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2006, 01:14:14 PM »

Also, the one obvious point that would support that the "whale rebaters" are hitting the pools is the same people who like to complain that they aren't supporting racing are the same ones who are complaining that the whales late money is ruining the game. Sort of can't have both sides of that argument be right can they?
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edwarren
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« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2006, 01:21:18 PM »

Ed I think I went through this earlier in the thread, but to summarize the blended takout is 20 percent, he pays 6 percent for the signal from whomever (Lewistown Maine, Indians etc.) he gives 10 percent back to the bettors as a rebate, he is left with 4 percent gross profit.

If you think they book it, you would have to believe these "whales" are not picking enough winners to get an ROI of over 1.80 which any decent handicapper can surely get.

Yes, yes and they get laid-off. The rubes get booked.
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big wally
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« Reply #41 on: July 13, 2006, 01:22:08 PM »

Wally, I don't get it. Can you show me like this?

Say $10,000 bet offshore. The book owes rebates. Then 2 scenarios:

1) Book $5000 - Lay-off $5000. How much profit assuming the book pays out $4000. What's his profit?

2). Lay-off the entire $10,000. What's his profit?

Ed.

They have simo agreements with the tracks, either directly or in directly, i dont know. It just like betting Del Mar (assume 20% take) at AP (Del Mar would get around 3 to4%) and AP the rest say (16%) but if you bet off shore Del Mar may get 7-8% and the off shore entity around 12% of this 12% they give back 10% to the player and make around 2%. So for every dollar bet they may make 2%. They dont have cost of running a track and can make a profit with such a small margin... while the North American Tracks need a much bigger margin... The off shore entities have recruited many of the larger players(whales) across the states and canada to bet offshore... Now the tracks instead of gettig the whole pie get  just piece of pie... Hope this helps the percentages are made up.. The Simo agreements are kept secret
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edwarren
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« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2006, 01:31:47 PM »

Thanks.
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