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Author Topic: Del Mar to widen turf course  (Read 997 times)
APCD Dan
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« on: August 28, 2013, 09:23:22 PM »

I was waiting for Journalstuff to post this, but it seems he is posting less now.  Must have discovered girls.  It seem DMR is increasing the width of its turf course from around 60 feet to 80 feet, including the chute.  Del Mar was limited to 10 horse fields, but with the increase in size, they can run 12-14.  Supposedly, the new course will be available for the 2014 season.

The goal of such an expansion is to get a Breeders Cup staged at Del Mar.  All this comes from a DMR press release.
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2013, 04:46:31 AM »

Journal probably realized he was getting beraded for posting good info.  Some people on here run all the good posters away.
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2013, 07:13:34 AM »

That's pretty weak, Rusty.

Posters with good information usually are able to stand up to challenges, and yes, if you post here, your information just might get challenged. That's the basis for a strong forum, with solid information and lively debate. BTW has NEVER tolerated rumor, gossip, and innuendo...not on the t-bred side, and not for very long, anyway.

The posters that are "run off", in my experience, are the ones that post half-baked nonsense, get called on it, and then they scurry back  behind the walls with the other cockroaches. No loss.

(The latter is NOT my description of journalstuff, who is youngish and needed to learn what is appropriate to post here; once s/he did, the material s/he posted was just fine.)
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2013, 10:33:44 AM »

J-Stuff is/was exactly what the game needs. A newbie, I presume, also interested in learning about the history and traditions of the game. If his indoctrination to the game is watching TVG and the simulcast chicks, what's wrong with him commenting on that? Although the Lady Gaga stuff was off-topic. I hope he's still into the game. It's a new world. He encountered the crusty blustering horseplayers here instead of at the track or OTB.
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2013, 05:20:08 PM »

I hope he's still into the game. It's a new world. He encountered the crusty blustering horseplayers here instead of at the track or OTB.

It's also a two-way street: if we need to learn how deal with the younger crowd, then they should expect to learn how to deal with the old crusty guys. It's only fair, no?
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journalstuff
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2013, 09:30:56 PM »

I'm still here. I post on here sometimes but not like I use to. Been busy at school and when am not doing any school work or studying for exams I do the handicap the races. On the weekends mostly. I am still following the sport daily on my breaks or free time.


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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2013, 05:01:38 AM »

I was waiting for Journalstuff to post this, but it seems he is posting less now.  Must have discovered girls.  It seem DMR is increasing the width of its turf course from around 60 feet to 80 feet, including the chute.  Del Mar was limited to 10 horse fields, but with the increase in size, they can run 12-14.  Supposedly, the new course will be available for the 2014 season.

The goal of such an expansion is to get a Breeders Cup staged at Del Mar.  All this comes from a DMR press release.

Ah another BC on the synthetics. the euros will send their best and kick American butt like they did the 2 times the bc was on synthetics.

 clocker biggestal
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2013, 06:58:35 AM »

Ah another BC on the synthetics. the euros will send their best and kick American butt like they did the 2 times the bc was on synthetics.

 clocker biggestal

You are behind the curve (surprise!) again.
 
Anyone who has been playing Del Mar this meeting -- or has even just been casually paying attention, just watching the syn races -- has realized after the first week that the synthetic course has been playing almost EXACTLY like a dirt course...with a discernable, CONSISTENT bias (i.e. doesn't jump around from race to race), and Race Shapes that hold up to prediction most of the time.

It's been wonderful to be able to play serial bets at Del Mar, with 5, 6 and sometimes 7 live horses in a given race, and until the last week, favorites have been taking a beating. When a price horse wins, it usually makes sense -- not these bizzarro "haven't picked up their feet in the last 12 races / wire job & win by 35 today" pieces of crap we keep seeing on syn for years.

Al, maybe if you took your nose out of the Daily Tea & Crumpets Report and paid attention to some American racing, you might know what has been going on in old Del Mar, and you might not be so keen about the "No Early Speed" Euro's chances in La Jolla (i.e., nil).
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2013, 07:58:31 AM »

Anyone who has been playing Del Mar this meeting -- or has even just been casually paying attention, just watching the syn races -- has realized after the first week that the synthetic course has been playing almost EXACTLY like a dirt course...with a discernable, CONSISTENT bias (i.e. doesn't jump around from race to race), and Race Shapes that hold up to prediction most of the time.

Come on. There's no way that a BIAS jumps around from race to race, no matter what the surface. How could you even tell that from one race? We've been told for years by the experts you can't discern bias from one race.
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2013, 08:59:24 AM »

Come on. There's no way that a BIAS jumps around from race to race, no matter what the surface. How could you even tell that from one race? We've been told for years by the experts you can't discern bias from one race.

You are correct, technically: when the track plays differently from race to race, it's actually "bias - free"...but that does not necessarily mean the track is "neutral", or even fair. ("Random" is the best I can come up with for this kind of surface.)

It only becomes evident when you watch the replays, and revisit the original (expected) race shapes, and compare to what actually happened.

I've been doing this post-race analysis for years; it's a major source of my "Next Race Suspects" and "Next Race Sleepers" lists -- those who just can't repeat their last race success unless bias-aided again, and those whose last effort was completely compromised by the prevailing bias.

When Poly hit Turfway, Keeneland, Woodbine and AP, all of my post-race work in this regard turned out to be largely wasted time, either because of the racing surface, or because of way the riders bunched up and ran slow fractions on the stuff, until the last quarter...but I didn't care why then, and I don't now. All I know is, Poly is a complete waste of time for someone like me who makes an effort to do comprehensive handicapping analysis, only to be run over by what I say are random results.

(If your opinion about Poly differs, fine. Empty your pockets on it & count your millions in winning; I won't be participating.)
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2013, 10:20:09 AM »

You are correct, technically: when the track plays differently from race to race, it's actually "bias - free"...but that does not necessarily mean the track is "neutral", or even fair. ("Random" is the best I can come up with for this kind of surface.)

It only becomes evident when you watch the replays, and revisit the original (expected) race shapes, and compare to what actually happened.

I disagree that the track surface is the only possible explanation for a race not playing out according to whatever race shape someone forecast. If a track is not exhibiting any particular bias, it is "fair". There's no such thing as random bias, unless weather is changing drastically, or the track crew is doing serious work.
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He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2013, 10:40:36 AM »

I disagree that the track surface is the only possible explanation for a race not playing out according to whatever race shape someone forecast.

Fine, but I don't know who you are disagreeing with. I think I was being pretty clear when I wrote:

...either because of the racing surface, or because of way the riders bunched up and ran slow fractions on the stuff, until the last quarter...but I didn't care why then, and I don't now.

Add ten other reasons that are inscrutable and I still won't care: not worth my time "Handicapping the Undefinable Racing Surface", and definitely not worth putting my bankroll at risk on huge uncertainty.

If a track is not exhibiting any particular bias, it is "fair".

Good thing you have the word "fair" in quotes, because even you know not to imply that such a surface might really give an equal chance to all running styles. When the surface can't be categorized at all, who knows what we have? (Other than a bunch of paceless races...)

There's no such thing as random bias.

Right, because that makes no sense at all anyway; it is the absence of any discernable bias that makes random results much more possible than on traditional racing surfaces.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2013, 11:08:31 AM »

Fine, but I don't know who you are disagreeing with. I think I was being pretty clear

What I disagreed with was the specific statement about the surface, to wit: "You are correct, technically: when the track plays differently from race to race, it's actually "bias - free"...but that does not necessarily mean the track is "neutral", or even fair. ("Random" is the best I can come up with for this kind of surface.)

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Good thing you have the word "fair" in quotes, because even you know not to imply that such a surface might really give an equal chance to all running styles.

Why would it not, if there is no bias? Are there actual published statistics that say otherwise?

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When the surface can't be categorized at all, who knows what we have?

If it can't be categorized in any way, we have an unbiased surface, where no particular running style has an undue advantage. The two possibilities are biased, and unbiased. (Unbiased as to run style, that is.)

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Right, because that makes no sense at all anyway; it is the absence of any discernable bias that makes random results much more possible than on traditional racing surfaces.

The results are not random (as we illustrated in earlier discussions regarding the wagering public's selection ability on poly), they're merely not as biased - not as influenced one way or the other by some bias of a dirt racecourse. Races will play out based on factors other than some track bias, like what horse is feeling best today, what jock rides the best race, pace scenario, trouble, etc.  

Poly races usually play out a lot like grass races, grass being a truly "natural" surface for horses. The traditional groomed dirt track is what is entirely unnatural, and so is its general speed bias. It's inherently unfair to a large percentage of the horse population, those lacking early speed, and inherently favors cheap speed horses. An unbiased surface levels the playing field for all competitors.  
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2013, 11:47:53 AM »

Poly races usually play out a lot like grass races, grass being a truly "natural" surface for horses.

This has been repeated about as often as "The French are the best cooks" and "Blacks can't play ice hockey"...but I've never seen one iota of evidence to support these kinds of specious claims that everybody seems to repeat as fact.

No big deal, though, as neither of us are playing poly races on a regular basis.  Wink
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2013, 11:51:56 AM »

This has been repeated about as often as "The French are the best cooks" and "Blacks can't play ice hockey"...but I've never seen one iota of evidence to support these kinds of specious claims that everybody seems to repeat as fact.

You claim the jocks all bunch up and do their running at the end. That's turf racing.

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No big deal, though, as neither of us are playing poly races on a regular basis.  Wink

I don't know about you, but my summer play includes AP (via ADW) and Del Mar over at our cheap little OTB. Del Mar is more "predictable", but that's entirely due to a higher class, healthier, more consistent grade of horse flesh. IMHO.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2013, 12:08:44 PM »

You claim the jocks all bunch up and do their running at the end. That's turf racing.

No, that is EURO turf racing.

While we do see the occasional "bunch up" here in US turf racing, in no way could that be considered the predominant style / race shape by anyone who watches races regularly.

Del Mar is more "predictable", but that's entirely due to a higher class, healthier, more consistent grade of horse flesh. IMHO.

You are on your own with that one...in the sense that I haven't heard that from a single pro or other industry source.
 
What I HAVE heard / read...on the Thoroughbred LA radio show...from Jay Privman, Mike Wildmon, and Kurt Hoover...and over on the TG Forum...is that SOMETHING is vastly different this year at Del Mar, that the surface is not playing at all like any previous year...and that for all practical purposes, you can just handicap it like you would a dirt track.

...which I happen to agree with, and is the only reason I am playing Del Mar syn this meeting.

Prices, yes. Ridiculous bullshit horses winning, no.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2013, 12:49:34 PM »

No, that is EURO turf racing.

While we do see the occasional "bunch up" here in US turf racing, in no way could that be considered the predominant style / race shape by anyone who watches races regularly.

"Occasional" bunching up is also all one ever sees in poly racing.

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You are on your own with that one [ better horses at Del Mar ] ...in the sense that I haven't heard that from a single pro or other industry source.

"On my own" is why I included the very visible IMHO. The M in it means "my".

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What I HAVE heard / read...on the Thoroughbred LA radio show...from Jay Privman, Mike Wildmon, and Kurt Hoover...and over on the TG Forum...is that SOMETHING is vastly different this year at Del Mar, that the surface is not playing at all like any previous year...and that for all practical purposes, you can just handicap it like you would a dirt track.

...which I happen to agree with, and is the only reason I am playing Del Mar syn this meeting.

I was speaking in general terms. This year, last year, the year before that, etc. Same thing. Del Mar is/has been more predictable than AP in general. It also has to do with their jocks riding more predictable races, too.

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Prices, yes. Ridiculous bullshit horses winning, no.

Ridiculous maybe only according to your own long-practiced and apparently inflexible way of looking at races. To someone else who's not so honed in on looking for early speed, maybe not so ridiculous at all. All last summer, I saw only maybe two Del Mar winners I would consider "ridiculous", as in no way to explain them on paper. But as we all know, what's on paper is less than half the story of how a horse will perform today.
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2013, 06:12:34 PM »

What I disagreed with was the specific statement about the surface, to wit: "You are correct, technically: when the track plays differently from race to race, it's actually "bias - free"...but that does not necessarily mean the track is "neutral", or even fair. ("Random" is the best I can come up with for this kind of surface.)  

Imagine that Terry disagreeing with Horse Voice, who would have ever imagined that would happen.   dunno

To be honest, this is about the most amiable disagreement you two ever batted back and forth.   Of course, this may just be a warmup for a longer more down and dirty disagreement.   I will watch with baited breath.
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I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
APCD Dan
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2013, 10:52:50 PM »

Imagine that Terry disagreeing with Horse Voice, who would have ever imagined that would happen.   dunno

To be honest, this is about the most amiable disagreement you two ever batted back and forth.   Of course, this may just be a warmup for a longer more down and dirty disagreement.   I will watch with baited breath.

I think their "arguments" are mostly intellectual sparring.  They both like to prove their points and press them home.  They probably have a lot of respect for each other and just love to express themselves.

The debates are both entertaining and educational.  Best part of BTW. 
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2013, 11:23:19 PM »

Imagine that Terry disagreeing with Horse Voice, who would have ever imagined that would happen.   dunno

To be honest, this is about the most amiable disagreement you two ever batted back and forth.   Of course, this may just be a warmup for a longer more down and dirty disagreement.   I will watch with baited breath.

You use worms, maggots, or stinkbait to bait your breath?
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Mick
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2013, 06:35:39 PM »

You use worms, maggots, or stinkbait to bait your breath?

When it comes to baiting my breath, I am good, no great, no I am a master............at doing that.
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I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
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« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2013, 06:53:28 PM »

When it comes to baiting my breath, I am good, no great, no I am a master............at doing that.

Both hands on the keyboard at all times, please.   Grin
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2013, 08:50:51 AM »

The project started yesterday:

"A massive expansion project at the Del Mar Racetrack was underway Monday in hopes to attract one of the industry’s biggest races.
 
“The track is getting widened from as narrow as 53 feet in some spots to 80 feet all the way around,” Del Mar turf superintendent Leif Dickinson said.
 
Before they can start widening the track, the grounds crews have to clear the infield and map out where utilities and irrigation will go.
 
Dickinson said it has taken two years of planning to get to this point and the new track will go from 7.7 acres to 11 acres, allowing the track to fit 14 horses at the starting gate, instead of 10.
 
You will also see more of the action from the grandstand.
 
“It’s a brand new profile, hopefully something that will be a little more stable that the horses will handle well,” Dickinson said.
 
The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club has plans for the larger track. They’re making a bid to bring the 2015 Breeders Cup to Del Mar.


http://fox5sandiego.com/2013/09/09/del-mar-racetrack-expansion-begins/#axzz2eV8cm7j9
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