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Author Topic: Show bet at Beulah - 7th race - Deniro's Saint  (Read 363 times)
Daddys Next
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« on: July 14, 2013, 03:05:34 PM »

The only things that could keep Deniro's Saint from showing would be breaking down, the jockey falls off, or a disqualification.  I guess those things happen, but I like the filly's chance of showing.  This seems to be the easiest race to pick a show horse that I have ever seen in my life.  I apologize for posting only a minute or so before post time.
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Mick
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2013, 04:56:44 PM »

Good show bet, the show price was the same as to win.   $2.10 is a 5% return.

Personally, I love show bets but never play horses like this to show.   You need to hit 20 times on a horse that pays $2.10 to win before you can afford one horse who breaks down, bleeds, loses his jockey (this has happened to me) or gets DQd.   That is too much a risk for me to see a comfortable profit.
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I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
Daddys Next
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2013, 12:27:43 AM »

Thanks Mick.  There were only six horses, and three of those were associated with the winning trainer.  None of the fillies other than Deniro's Saint really belonged in the race based on their past performances, which was restricted to Ohio breds.  I figured (perhaps wrongly, or correctly) that Faulkner entered two other fillies from his barn to ensure the race would fill.  I just did not see anyone that could run with Deniro's Saint entered in the race.  Given that it was a stakes race, I figured his filly was prepared and healthy.  Of course, you do worry about the jockey falling, a disqualification, etc.  You are correct that you have to win 20 in a row, so the odds are against you, but for this race I ramped up my wagering.  I just did not see the filly losing to three others.   
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