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Author Topic: AP synthetic track bias  (Read 568 times)
CLOCKERbiggestal
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« on: July 13, 2013, 10:38:46 AM »

Since someone else (Terry) brought this subject up in a previous post I thought I'd dig up the stats.

Pronounced speed bias

5.5 furlongs (Best running 2 running styles based upon impact values)
--------------
E 1.81 impact
P 1.10

6 furlongs
-----------
E 1.37 impact
E/P 1.18

6.5 furlongs
-------------
E/P 1.65
E    1.00

7 furlongs
-----------
E 1.54
S 1.00

1 Mile
-------
E 1.27
P 1.00

late speed horse up against it for the win position on the poly this year

 clocker biggestal
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2013, 10:43:07 AM »

Since someone else (Terry) brought this subject up in a previous post I thought I'd dig up the stats.

Pronounced speed bias

5.5 furlongs (Best running 2 running styles based upon impact values)
--------------
E 1.81 impact

6.5 furlongs
-------------
E/P 1.65

7 furlongs
-----------
E 1.54


Look at those ridiculously high impact values!

NO WONDER they come back "ass sore" from running on the Follycrap!
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2013, 11:05:40 AM »

Look at those ridiculously high impact values!

NO WONDER they come back "ass sore" from running on the Follycrap!

well Monmouth has their traditional 6F E bias (impact 1.60) and thats real dirt.

 clocker biggestal
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Ed
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2013, 11:18:45 AM »

What is an "impact" value??
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The Turf Monster
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2013, 11:25:36 AM »

What is an "impact" value??

Likely something of little to no value when you consider that the Arlington surface's bias is almost 100% dictated by temperature and humidity
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2013, 11:26:37 AM »

well Monmouth has their traditional 6F E bias (impact 1.60) and thats real dirt.

 clocker biggestal

Listen, you and all the other poly proponents got sold a line of shit, and you all gobbled it right up.

Before poly, racing secretaries were hustling horses that weren't ready to run back, and track vets were looking the other way, because of pressure from track management to keep field sizes high -- then when horses started snapping, why it must be the DIRT TRACK!

Bullshit. If that were true, why weren't horses breaking down on dirt in big numbers 20 years ago?

Is poly really safer? How would anyone know? Racing secretaries are no longer pressuring barns to run back so fast, and track vets are now scratching horses they used to allow to race...and the evidence is in average field size, which continues to DROP, in spite of this so-called "safe" racing surface being installed.

Poly is racing's answer to the Trojan Horse. A good thing to always keep in mind are the words of the good philosopher Phaedrus:

"Things are not always what they seem"
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2013, 11:33:23 AM »

Listen, you and all the other poly proponents got sold a line of shit, and you all gobbled it right up.

Before poly, racing secretaries were hustling horses that weren't ready to run back, and track vets were looking the other way, because of pressure from track management to keep field sizes high -- then when horses started snapping, why it must be the DIRT TRACK!

Bullshit. If that were true, why weren't horses breaking down on dirt in big numbers 20 years ago?

Is poly really safer? How would anyone know? Racing secretaries are no longer pressuring barns to run back so fast, and track vets are now scratching horses they used to allow to race...and the evidence is in average field size, which continues to DROP, in spite of this so-called "safe" racing surface being installed.

Poly is racing's answer to the Trojan Horse. A good thing to always keep in mind are the words of the good philosopher Phaedrus:

"Things are not always what they seem"

Its real funny that keeneland doesn't have the same problem


ALL-TIME KEENELAND POLTRACK AVERAGE PAYOFFS
 
Fall 2006-present (1597 races)
 
Avg $2 win:                         $15.44
 
Avg $2 exacta:                   $126.44
 
Avg $1 trifecta:                  $520.37
 
Avg $1 superfecta:          $3117.11
 
 
 
Avg field size: 9.52 starters per race

 clocker biggestal
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2013, 11:39:24 AM »

What is an "impact" value??

Impact Value is a ratio: the win percentage of a group of horse divided by the percentage of starters that belong to that group. For instance, lets say youre looking at the group of horses that won their last start. Their win percentage is 17.0% and their percentage of starters is 11.2%:

Impact Value = win% / % of starter
Impact Value = 17.0 / 11.2
Impact Value = 1.52

 clocker biggestal
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2013, 12:07:10 PM »

Its real funny that keeneland doesn't have the same problem


ALL-TIME KEENELAND POLTRACK AVERAGE PAYOFFS
 
Fall 2006-present (1597 races)
 
Avg $2 win:                         $15.44
 
Avg $2 exacta:                   $126.44
 
Avg $1 trifecta:                  $520.37
 
Avg $1 superfecta:          $3117.11
 
 
 
Avg field size: 9.52 starters per race

 clocker biggestal


The only thing "real funny" here is you think you can float an "elite meet" example past us, a track that only races 6 weeks a year...a track that owners would want to win at even if they had to run on a track made of baked beans and molasses.

Get a clue.

How is Golden Gate doing? Terrible. Some job synthetics is doing there, eh?

Want to play games with the extremes? I can do that, too.
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Ed
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2013, 12:41:58 PM »

Impact Value is a ratio: the win percentage of a group of horse divided by the percentage of starters that belong to that group. For instance, lets say youre looking at the group of horses that won their last start. Their win percentage is 17.0% and their percentage of starters is 11.2%:

Impact Value = win% / % of starter
Impact Value = 17.0 / 11.2
Impact Value = 1.52

 clocker biggestal


Thanks for the reply Al. So, if I understand it correctly, an impact value of 1 is the norm and above 1 positive for that group and below 1 negative. Is that correct?
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2013, 12:58:58 PM »


The only thing "real funny" here is you think you can float an "elite meet" example past us, a track that only races 6 weeks a year...a track that owners would want to win at even if they had to run on a track made of baked beans and molasses.



So horses at a poly elite meets don't get sore. or they do but the owners don't care about their horses. also funny horses that on keeneland poly do okay at other tracks.

 clocker biggestal

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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2013, 01:28:20 PM »

So horses at a poly elite meets don't get sore. or they do but the owners don't care about their horses.

How did you reach THAT conclusion?

Horses come back sore after racing on most ANY surface -- it doesn't mean their owners don't care about them  screwy  -- but when they come back ass sore from the poly, you have to shut them down for at least 3 months: no ass, no engine.

also funny horses that on keeneland poly do okay at other tracks.

What, you are going to keep banging the Keeneland drum, where the racing stock tends to be much better?  head shake

How go Golden Gate horses do at other tracks? (Not good at all, from my observations.)

How about AP horses that have run on the poly there? Totally hit and miss.

So what is your point? Do you even have one?  dunno

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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2013, 01:48:40 PM »

How did you reach THAT conclusion?

Horses come back sore after racing on most ANY surface -- it doesn't mean their owners don't care about them  screwy  -- but when they come back ass sore from the poly, you have to shut them down for at least 3 months: no ass, no engine.

What, you are going to keep banging the Keeneland drum, where the racing stock tends to be much better?  head shake

How go Golden Gate horses do at other tracks? (Not good at all, from my observations.)

How about AP horses that have run on the poly there? Totally hit and miss.

So what is your point? Do you even have one?  dunno





you are the one who brought up soreness issues on synthetics.

I refuted you with Keeneland and you downplayed that because of its status of an "elite meet"

seems to me that Keeneland horses (training and racing) deal with that issue pretty well.

guess good horses aren't subject to this soreness issue or maybe their trainers
take better care of them.

 clocker biggestal
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2013, 02:03:40 PM »

seems to me that Keeneland horses (training and racing) deal with that issue pretty well.

guess good horses aren't subject to this soreness issue or maybe their trainers
take better care of them.

Or maybe you have the attention span of a hummingbird?

The Keeneland meeting is THREE WEEKS LONG, held twice per year.

Unless you are tracking EVERY horse that runs there and where they go next, you have NO visibility to whether horses that race at Keeneland are getting knocked out by the poly...because by the time they recover, the Kenneland meeting has been over for a long time.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2013, 02:13:30 PM »

Or maybe you have the attention span of a hummingbird?

The Keeneland meeting is THREE WEEKS LONG, held twice per year.

Unless you are tracking EVERY horse that runs there and where they go next, you have NO visibility to whether horses that race at Keeneland are getting knocked out by the poly...because by the time they recover, the Kenneland meeting has been over for a long time.

And I clearly stated "racing and training". Are horses that are trained on poly not subject to that soreness or is it a strictly racing issue? horses are trained there before and after the meet ends.

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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2013, 02:26:25 PM »

HV,
      would it surprise you that BLAME was trained only on Synthetics during
September and October in 2010. 5 works between Sept 12 and October 24 (with him shipping up to Belmont for his Jockey gold cup second) at Keeneland.

Guess Trainer Stall doesn't know about this poly issue.

sure didn't hurt the horse on that gray and dark late early november afternoon
at Churchill.

 clocker biggestal
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2013, 03:00:05 PM »

HV,
      would it surprise you that BLAME was trained only on Synthetics during
September and October in 2010. 5 works between Sept 12 and October 24 (with him shipping up to Belmont for his Jockey gold cup second) at Keeneland.

Guess Trainer Stall doesn't know about this poly issue.

sure didn't hurt the horse on that gray and dark late early november afternoon
at Churchill.



You want to play games with single horses, we can do that too.

Depends on the horses "action". The ones that can really dig in and push off are the ones prone to muscle soreness; some horses, like Blame, have a more fluid stride and aren't compromised by the racing surface.
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The Turf Monster
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2013, 07:15:33 PM »

iirc HV was all over the sore horse issue at Hawthorne this spring when the Illinois horsemen were trying to squeeze juice out of a turnip during the welfare meet......
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2013, 10:08:03 PM »

Wasn't me.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2013, 10:10:47 AM »

How is Golden Gate doing? Terrible. Some job synthetics is doing there, eh?

How it it doing as far as what? Fatalities are down. That's why it was mandated, and in that regard it's doing fine.

As far as field size or whatever, before poly they had 5 horse fields, and now they have 5 horse fields.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2013, 10:12:29 AM »

iirc HV was all over the sore horse issue at Hawthorne this spring when the Illinois horsemen were trying to squeeze juice out of a turnip during the welfare meet......

How was that a "welfare meet"? They ran for the purses generated by wagering. No free money from boats or whatever.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2013, 10:16:00 AM »

How did you reach THAT conclusion?

Horses come back sore after racing on most ANY surface -- it doesn't mean their owners don't care about them  screwy  -- but when they come back ass sore from the poly, you have to shut them down for at least 3 months: no ass, no engine.

Could you name some of these horses that had to be shut down for three months, trainer HV? And supply the vet reports that state it was the poly and specifically the poly that made them sore?

Quote
How go Golden Gate horses do at other tracks? (Not good at all, from my observations.)

What other tracks do they go to for us to examine, besides the big leap of class up at the So Cal tracks? The ones that run at the summer fair dirt tracks in No Cal seem to do just fine.
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