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Author Topic: the hype machine did me in  (Read 795 times)
TheRedMile
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« on: May 19, 2013, 11:59:48 AM »

i was a victim of the media hype machine on yesterdays' preakness.
i did not bet the race or anything connected to as i thought orb was a winner and the price was too small.this meant i did not look seriously at the others to win only to toss them
everywhere you turned they were all picking orb and projecting a triple crown winner.i joined the bandwagon since i have always been a shug fan.
people actually bet titletown 5 down to 22-1.itsmuluckyday was worth a shot i thought but i did nothing

and now onto a wide open belmont w what looks like  a bad crop of 3 yos so far this yr
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nmslim
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2013, 01:26:50 PM »

So? Who listens to the Neumeiers and Serlings of this world anyway?Just a bunch of tallking heads who never pick a loser and if they do it is the jocks fault or a track bias or somesuch.Just admit you cannot win em all and move on..Also,what is up with the Michelle Beadle stuff on NBC?Are they trying to make her a star?I mean she probably would be fun to go out with,but yikes.
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Mick
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2013, 06:53:03 PM »

She looks like a fun girl here.

http://www.totalprosports.com/2012/03/09/sportsnations-michelle-beadle-attempts-the-cookie-challenge-video/

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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2013, 08:28:42 PM »

i was a victim of the media hype machine on yesterdays' preakness.
i did not bet the race or anything connected to as i thought orb was a winner and the price was too small.this meant i did not look seriously at the others to win only to toss them
everywhere you turned they were all picking orb and projecting a triple crown winner.i joined the bandwagon since i have always been a shug fan.
people actually bet titletown 5 down to 22-1.itsmuluckyday was worth a shot i thought but i did nothing

and now onto a wide open belmont w what looks like  a bad crop of 3 yos so far this yr

Hopefully the majority will treat the Belmont as wide open, and Orb will be a price.

Unfortunately, the big bettors saw what happened and Orb will be a big favorite once again.
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2013, 09:33:33 PM »

i was a victim of the media hype machine on yesterdays' preakness.
i did not bet the race or anything connected to as i thought orb was a winner and the price was too small.this meant i did not look seriously at the others to win only to toss them
everywhere you turned they were all picking orb and projecting a triple crown winner.i joined the bandwagon since i have always been a shug fan.
people actually bet titletown 5 down to 22-1.itsmuluckyday was worth a shot i thought but i did nothing

and now onto a wide open belmont w what looks like  a bad crop of 3 yos so far this yr
   me too although Freedom Child and Normandy Invasion look to be the best of an average group or below average.
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nmslim
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2013, 11:04:36 AM »

I am not disputing she is fun,but the three letter networks have repeatedly tried comic relief to get new fans and it has not worked.At least Kenny Mayne knew something about racing,and Hank Goldberg was unintentionally funny.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2013, 11:53:21 AM »

   me too although Freedom Child and Normandy Invasion look to be the best of an average group or below average.

I simply do not understand the fascination with Normandy Invasion.

He fought his rider (i.e., he was rank) in the Ky Derby, he couldn't make The Preakness...and he is still eligible for N1X allowance.

THIS is our 3 yo "superstar" this year? That's some strong Kool-Aid you guys are drinking.
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STIVO
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2013, 03:18:36 PM »

Normandy Invasion won't hit the board in the Belmont. I'd take a look at a Pletcher shooter.
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2013, 04:06:03 PM »

I simply do not understand the fascination with Normandy Invasion.

He fought his rider (i.e., he was rank) in the Ky Derby, he couldn't make The Preakness...and he is still eligible for N1X allowance.



...who beat the eventual Preakness winner in the Kentucky Derby.  You are one of the players who see cheap races on a horse's form and can never get it out of your head -- as you miss the improvement.

I'll take cheap horses on the way up over class horses on the way down -- every time.

Definitely a concern that he did not come out of the Derby fit enough to race in the Preakness.  You know how badly the connections want the race, so missing the race is not a good sign.

Meanwhile there is a harness horse named Normandy Invasion who also looks like a good one.  He won a $62k Sire Stakes race at Pocono last night.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2013, 04:35:26 PM »


...who beat the eventual Preakness winner in the Kentucky Derby.

I can't possibly stress to you how TOTALLY MEANINGLESS this little tidbit is. If Chad Brown and Lukas had a "Who Finishes Higher" bet, then -- and ONLY then -- would this be of any significance.

Commutative properties work great with numbers...not so much with horses: if horse "A" finishes better than horse "B" in a given race, all we know is that horse "A" finished better that day. Horse "a" might have even been the better animal that day -- he probably was, but it's not a sure thing: maybe horse "b" got cut off and lost all chance, but was otherwise tons the best that day.

Needless to say, going back in time to one race and insisting that one horse is (and, presumably, the way you are stacking your argument, always will be) better than another, based on ONE race -- and, in what is possibly the most chaotic race these horses will ever see in their lives! -- well, it indicates a lack of critical thinking, IMO. Horse racing analysis isn't for the simple.

You are one of the players who see cheap races on a horse's form and can never get it out of your head -- as you miss the improvement.

Your handicapping of my abilities would seem to match that of your horse handicapping ability -- not much, from what I've seen here.

Normandy Invasion has talent, no doubt. Bundles of talent. I can see that.

But what I also see -- that you and the other N.I. backers are missing -- is that the colt is also a HEAD CASE right now. Immature. Unprofessional.

Probably would have been gelded already if he hadn't shown so much promise earlier.

My prediction: we might see N.I. a couple more times this year...maybe in the Travers, if Brown can get his head straight...and then maybe they will put N.I. away for awhile so he can grow up (if he hasn't already later this year) and come back as a very nice 4 year old handicap horse in 2014.



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pamwaggy
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2013, 07:34:49 PM »


Are you kidding me?  Yikes!  Have to take half that makup off, then,,,,maybe.   But then you are probably talking about something else than I am, ha ha.
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Mick
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2013, 07:50:28 PM »

Are you kidding me?  Yikes!  Have to take half that makup off, then,,,,maybe.   But then you are probably talking about something else than I am, ha ha.
Any girl who knows the seven second rule on dropped food (or one bounce, even better) has to be a fun girl Pammy.  As for makeup, most men on tv wear as much or more.   It's an occupational hazard. 

Personally I enjoy both listening to some one like Joe K, who studies the game and is informative.  However it is a game and if you cannot laugh at life, why participate in the game?  Life is not all that serious.
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2013, 08:41:27 PM »

Its funny that people think Orb has even a remote chance to run in the Belmont....Hilarious in fact.... and Normandy Invasion was ruled out already he's not a 1 1/2  mile horse to begin with and he has lost a significant amount of weight he has to get back on.....Normandy Invasion and Oxbow were the only two horses near the pace in the Derby that lived to tell about it......And one didnt run.....So guess who won.....Funny things happen to closers when they dont got 45 halves in a quagmire to set things up for them......Most horseplayers and no imagination and all are MOTO.....The ones with the imagination win all the money from the MOTO handicappers........I said in another thread Normandy Invasion and to a lesser extent Oxbow were much the best horses in the Derby and if you couldnt figure that out Bingo should be your game of choice......B-9
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2013, 10:33:05 PM »

Any girl who knows the seven second rule on dropped food (or one bounce, even better) has to be a fun girl Pammy.  As for makeup, most men on TV wear as much or more.  It's an occupational hazard. 

Personally I enjoy both listening to some one like Joe K, who studies the game and is informative.  However it is a game and if you cannot laugh at life, why participate in the game?  Life is not all that serious.

I don't know about that rule.  But I apologise if I said something mean.  I shouldn't do that here. 

I don't think that rule is disgusting.  I was only speaking of the makeup and I DO know who wears it but it can be tons and look better, really.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2013, 10:49:04 PM »

I said in another thread Normandy Invasion...[was] much the best horse in the Derby and if you couldnt figure that out Bingo should be your game of choice......B-9

Pure rubbish.

One-hundred Kentucky Derby's have had some horse that people thought was "much the best"...save for those nasty little last one or two furlongs, which ALWAYS separate the Derby Winner from the also-rans.

Oxbow redeemed himself in the Preakness, so you can make a case for him being somehow compromised on Derby day, but Normandy Invasion? He might be a nice mile or 1 1/8 mile handicap horse next year, but "much the best" in the Derby? You can say it in every thread on this forum, if you'd like, but that doesn't make it fact. IMO, it's complete nonsense: he HAD the Derby won and simply quit, no excuses.

A "much the best" horse doesn't quit when he has the race won; maybe it's YOU who ought to be sitting with the little old blue-haired ladies.  geezer
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2013, 11:15:26 PM »

I simply do not understand the fascination with Normandy Invasion.

He fought his rider (i.e., he was rank) in the Ky Derby, he couldn't make The Preakness...and he is still eligible for N1X allowance.

THIS is our 3 yo "superstar" this year? That's some strong Kool-Aid you guys are drinking.
  Are you saying you like Freedom Child in Belmont?  What about Robin Meade?
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2013, 02:46:23 AM »

  Are you saying you like Freedom Child in Belmont?  What about Robin Meade?

Freedom who?  dunno
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2013, 10:24:27 AM »

Pure rubbish.

One-hundred Kentucky Derby's have had some horse that people thought was "much the best"...save for those nasty little last one or two furlongs, which ALWAYS separate the Derby Winner from the also-rans.

Oxbow redeemed himself in the Preakness, so you can make a case for him being somehow compromised on Derby day, but Normandy Invasion? He might be a nice mile or 1 1/8 mile handicap horse next year, but "much the best" in the Derby? You can say it in every thread on this forum, if you'd like, but that doesn't make it fact. IMO, it's complete nonsense: he HAD the Derby won and simply quit, no excuses.

A "much the best" horse doesn't quit when he has the race won; maybe it's YOU who ought to be sitting with the little old blue-haired ladies.  geezer

I don't know who said Normandy Invasion is much the best.  He is a one-run horse, but that one-run is huge.  It was best suited for the Derby where a late run frequently triumphs.  But the jock chose to use that move too early, ending his chances.  The fact that he still held on for fourth tells me he would have had a hell of a chance if he was on Orb's bumper down the stretch instead of making the premature move.

I've had a lot of success following up on horses who make so-called middle moves and then fade in the stretch (although frequently the DRFs opinion of middle move does not match mine).  NI's move qualifies as a middle move to me, however it also seems clear to me that he did not come out of the race so good or he would have run in The Preakness.  Same goes for Revolutionary.
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2013, 10:33:10 AM »

I don't know who said Normandy Invasion is much the best.

Poster HarnessFanDE said so, a few posts back. I suppose when you look at harness horses all the time, you are easily impressed. 

But the jock chose to use that move too early, ending his chances. 

Not the jock's fault. The horse is a rogue, he won't rate; at some point you have to give the horse his head. You can't choke him to death.
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nmslim
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2013, 11:10:05 AM »

Any girl who knows the seven second rule on dropped food (or one bounce, even better) has to be a fun girl Pammy.  As for makeup, most men on tv wear as much or more.   It's an occupational hazard. 

Personally I enjoy both listening to some one like Joe K, who studies the game and is informative.  However it is a game and if you cannot laugh at life, why participate in the game?  Life is not all that serious.
Well said.Horse racing is a sport.It is serious to the men and women who work with the livestock,but the ancillary hangers on like the talent on the shows are not to be taken seriously,they are entertainers,even though they may look at themselves as "journalists".And Pamwaggy,TV makeup is heavy and thick.Thats why so many of the males tan,so they will not have to wear so much.Look at Aaron Vercruysse on HRTV,it does not look good on him,of course he looks a little like Satan anyway.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2013, 08:09:26 PM »

Well said.Horse racing is a sport.It is serious to the men and women who work with the livestock,but the ancillary hangers on like the talent on the shows are not to be taken seriously,they are entertainers,even though they may look at themselves as "journalists".And Pamwaggy,TV makeup is heavy and thick.Thats why so many of the males tan,so they will not have to wear so much.Look at Aaron Vercruysse on HRTV,it does not look good on him,of course he looks a little like Satan anyway.

Well, I will have to say your're right.  Maybe the women take some off after the TV bit.  Or else, YIKES!
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