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Author Topic: Preakness  (Read 3127 times)
Wilson
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« Reply #75 on: May 18, 2013, 11:34:47 PM »

Gary Stevens has been KICKING A$$!  More power to him.
It is about time he rode that horse the right way.  He gave it a terrible ride in the Arkansas Derby.  Thought he would lay back and come off the pace.  Not much better in Kentucky Derby, too close to the torrid pace.
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mottoman
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« Reply #76 on: May 19, 2013, 06:24:11 AM »

I am a fan of Gary Stevens also but please stop the he is the greatest stuff or he ran a bad race in the KY Derby.  If you watched his interview after the race he said he could not believe it was happening meaning they (other jocks) were letting him walk the dog on the front end.  In the derby 4 horses shot to the lead and he had no chance.  No fault of his just racing luck and PACE. 
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jgp
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« Reply #77 on: May 19, 2013, 06:28:34 AM »

It was more the horse than the jock, Gary didn't have to do much.
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mel4600
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« Reply #78 on: May 19, 2013, 06:32:48 AM »

It was more the horse than the jock, Gary didn't have to do much.

It is always more horse than jock. Stevens is one of the best ever and he measured the race perfectly. Its the other jocks that are at issue for allowing it.
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mel4600
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« Reply #79 on: May 19, 2013, 06:40:06 AM »

Gary Stevens has been KICKING A$$!  More power to him.

Brought in 2 long shots back to back in the Dixie and Preakness capping a huge late double paying $557! He is the master!
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #80 on: May 19, 2013, 07:11:46 AM »

I am a fan of Gary Stevens also but please stop the he is the greatest stuff or he ran a bad race in the KY Derby.  If you watched his interview after the race he said he could not believe it was happening meaning they (other jocks) were letting him walk the dog on the front end. 

Yes, but Stevens was smart enough to get out there by a good amount, then he played "try and catch me".

That's nothing in a $5K claimer, but in a Grade I race it is pretty damn ballsy.

The folks I talked to yesterday that had Oxbow -- every one of them -- said in one form or another that Stevens staying with this horse gave them the confidence to use him on top.

Mottoman, you still haven't figured out that jockeys DO matter, with INTENT being a giant factor: at 50 years old, Stevens isn't farting around for a third ride on a horse that has no shot at all. Pretty big clue there, if you were looking for someone to beat Orb. (I wasn't.)

But you want to attribute it to "luck"? My ass. I suppose all of the other jocks that are in the Horse Racing Hall of Fame with Stevens were just "lucky", too.  Roll Eyes 
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mottoman
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« Reply #81 on: May 19, 2013, 07:12:35 AM »

It reminds me of all the people on these boards that said Lucas can't train anymore.  It's not that he can not train anymore he does not have the owners that he used to in the 80's and 90's most went to Pletcher and the other young guns.  It's the HORSE!
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mottoman
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« Reply #82 on: May 19, 2013, 07:23:18 AM »

Hv I am with you it was a 100% pass race for me as I was not going to try and beat ORB, mostly because I could not find any kind of an angle on any other in the race.  No I am not saying its all luck on the jocks part, but come on its the Preakness there are 4 or 5 hall of fame riders in the race they are not stupid and Gary is not a better rider than some of them especially at this point in his career.  When Gary broke terrific and Krigger did not go with him it makes Gary look like a genius.

Maybe Orb did not like the track, maybe he was off or a bounce candidate it could be dozens of things.  Thats what makes horse racing a tuff game.  The race just did not set up for Orb like it did in the derby.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #83 on: May 19, 2013, 08:03:28 AM »

It reminds me of all the people on these boards that said Lucas can't train anymore.  It's not that he can not train anymore he does not have the owners that he used to in the 80's and 90's most went to Pletcher and the other young guns.  It's the HORSE!

Not quite true, either: Ron McNally took a truckload of high-priced, hiqh-quality 2 year olds in the late 80's and early 90's, and simply butchered them.

Yes, you have to start with a horse that has a reasonable chance: bloodlines, conformation, ability, etc...but, what? Now you want to tell us TRAINERS don't matter?

Give me your address, I'm coming over. I need to get high, and you are obviously smoking the good shit this morning.
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The Turf Monster
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« Reply #84 on: May 19, 2013, 08:38:41 AM »

I went for the first time yesterday and was surprised by how much of a dump Pimlico is.  The power went out about 35 minutes before the race, and everybody was waiting in the dark to wager
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #85 on: May 19, 2013, 08:42:15 AM »

Ray Paulick‏@raypaulick5h
Oxbow's 1:57.54 was slowest @PreaknessStakes since Carry Back won in 1:57 3/5 in 1961.

The way they were staggering down the stretch, I was wondering if they were going to break two minutes.
Maybe the worst Preakness field in a hundred years. I think Mine That Bird could have blown their doors off.
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #86 on: May 19, 2013, 09:02:07 AM »

The only story of the Preakness.  Incredibly bad ride on Orb.
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #87 on: May 19, 2013, 09:21:26 AM »

Jerry Bossert‏@JBossertNYDN1h
Oxbow's three-quarter split of 1:13.26 is slowest since Bally Ache in 1960 - 1:13.40. Gary Stevens stole it
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faster horses
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« Reply #88 on: May 19, 2013, 09:25:18 AM »

The only story of the Preakness.  Incredibly bad ride on Orb.

Huh?  The horse totally failed to fire.  What was the jock supposed to do--hop off and carry him?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #89 on: May 19, 2013, 09:31:11 AM »

The way they were staggering down the stretch, I was wondering if they were going to break two minutes.

The guys on TV did say the track was playing incredibly slow yesterday.

Quote
Maybe the worst Preakness field in a hundred years.

All the new testing and pre-race surveillance is taking its toll on "greatness".
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He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
faster horses
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« Reply #90 on: May 19, 2013, 09:31:59 AM »

I went for the first time yesterday and was surprised by how much of a dump Pimlico is.  The power went out about 35 minutes before the race, and everybody was waiting in the dark to wager

Me too.  I told my wife I felt like I was watching championship-level racing at Hawthorne.  I had a great time anyway, but that place isn't exactly Saratoga.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #91 on: May 19, 2013, 09:48:36 AM »

All the new testing and pre-race surveillance is taking its toll on "greatness".

Except, none of that was in place for The Preakness.

Another problem is that the rules for the three TC races aren't even the same...in 2013, still:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78324/still-no-uniform-medication-in-triple-crown

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STIVO
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« Reply #92 on: May 19, 2013, 10:08:45 AM »

Oxbow got a 106 BSF. Was the track really that slow? They went 1:57 & change.
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TheRedMile
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« Reply #93 on: May 19, 2013, 10:34:42 AM »

Oxbow got a 106 BSF. Was the track really that slow? They went 1:57 & change.

imo it was hard to believe that it was still rated fast.
just like in the derby i did like oxbow some if it came up sloppy.
the problem for me was i rarely played pimilico so i had no real clue
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faster horses
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« Reply #94 on: May 19, 2013, 12:53:29 PM »

The track was consistently slow both Friday and Saturday.  The small amount of rain that fell on Saturday didn't seem to affect it much.
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afleet
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« Reply #95 on: May 19, 2013, 01:45:56 PM »

I went for the first time yesterday and was surprised by how much of a dump Pimlico is.  The power went out about 35 minutes before the race, and everybody was waiting in the dark to wager
The power went out when I was at the Preakness in the 90s, also.  Pimlico is a dump right in the middle of a ghetto, but it was still fun
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #96 on: May 19, 2013, 01:59:48 PM »

Except, none of that was in place for The Preakness.

Huh

What's your source on that? The Baltimore Sun sure reports different.

See the following for description of enhanced pre-race security precautions:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-04-16/sports/bs-md-preakness-security-20130416_1_winner-avenue-maryland-jockey-club-preakness

Here's another about pre-race medication monitoring and random testing:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-05-16/sports/bs-md-preakness-anti-doping-20130516_1_138th-preakness-preakness-horses-pimlico-race-course
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He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
faster horses
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« Reply #97 on: May 19, 2013, 03:17:54 PM »

Oxbow got a 106 BSF. Was the track really that slow? They went 1:57 & change.

In the Pimlico Special on Friday, a pretty good group of older horses went about a second slower, and the track didn't seem any faster on Saturday.  The other races were all notably slow relative to the quality of the starters.  106 seems a little generous, though.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #98 on: May 19, 2013, 04:51:53 PM »

In the Pimlico Special on Friday, a pretty good group of older horses went about a second slower, and the track didn't seem any faster on Saturday.  The other races were all notably slow relative to the quality of the starters.  106 seems a little generous, though.

This race, as well as the Derby, prove the truth that it's how the race is run that matters, not who has the biggest numbers (of whatever ilk).

Of course, predicting how the race will run is always tough.  Cry

Does anyone here craft "backup bets" based on alternate pace scenarios, to cover him (or her) self if the race doesn't go as predicted? In retrospect, I guess you could look at this race with not a whole lot of high Quirin speed points and maybe think "ripe for a steal if no one hooks up", with Oxbow and Goldencents having the best early pace last outs.
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He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
Mick
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« Reply #99 on: May 19, 2013, 05:39:20 PM »

This race, as well as the Derby, prove the truth that it's how the race is run that matters, not who has the biggest numbers (of whatever ilk).

Of course, predicting how the race will run is always tough.  Cry

Does anyone here craft "backup bets" based on alternate pace scenarios, to cover him (or her) self if the race doesn't go as predicted? In retrospect, I guess you could look at this race with not a whole lot of high Quirin speed points and maybe think "ripe for a steal if no one hooks up", with Oxbow and Goldencents having the best early pace last outs.
Hindsight is 20/20 regardless, my opinion of the race is this.   During the KD, the pace was incredibly fast, much faster than I imagined the race would be.   So several trainers and jockeys had to think that they could win on the lead.  This race there was no Palace Malice, Verrazano, Falling Sky or Vyjack and Kevin Krigger wasn't eager to send Goldencents to challnege for the lead and wear him out a second time.   

Gary Stevens being the seasoned professional knew what this all meant and took the chance that he could steal the race with a very slow pace.   The only other seasoned jockey with a good speed horse was Johnny V and he did all he could to catch Oxbow.   I think that if someone were to play backup bets, Oxbow or Its my lucky day winning as an outcome would have to be considered.   But how many backups do you make for yourself?   Cases could aslo be made for Goldencents or Will take charge.

Would I have predicted Oxbow winning as an outcome?   I didn't handicap the race so I cannot say.  From the races I've seen, I thought that Orb was a super horse that just came into his own in the Flordia Derby.  I played Orb in your contest for that fact and would have bet him in the Derby except for all the rain.   What ever the hell happened to Orb going into the final turn, I cannot figure out.  It looked as if he just gave up for part of the race on his own and later woke up and remembered that he was in a horse race.   We may never know what happened to him int that short stretch of the race.
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I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
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