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Author Topic: Preakness  (Read 3083 times)
TheRedMile
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« Reply #50 on: May 18, 2013, 08:26:44 AM »

Terry, we could go Wilcox Inn/Departing for the Illinois themed double.  If I can get 14-1 on Departing I'll take a w/p shot.  I remember winning a nice exacta with orb when he was on the rail at Keeneland a few races back, I have a hunch the winner is coming from the outside.  I know someone mentioned earlier that with field size of nine, its not that big of a deal.  Orb obviously has the ability to win from the front or the back, but I'm assuming that he has to go to the lead being in his position. 

orb never raced ar keeneland.the only preakness horse w a keeneland line is will take charge
orb will not be on the lead but will be sitting midpack ready to move depending on pace
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brivolta
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« Reply #51 on: May 18, 2013, 10:38:18 AM »

I estimate that this will pay ~$30 if Goldenscents runs second...otherwise, $45, tops.

You could be right but I think a lot of people will be using WTC and Mylute in exotics. Even Oxbow. After Orb I think the horses used in exotics will be pretty wide open.
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jgp
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« Reply #52 on: May 18, 2013, 10:46:25 AM »

Your right niatross, it was the foy at Gulfstream.  So I guess I 'm in the minority of people here that think that Orb is very beatable?  I think he is a great horse, but on a dry surface with a moderate pace, and most of all the horses having room to run, I'll be betting against him.
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #53 on: May 18, 2013, 12:24:46 PM »

Latest odds:

The Downey Profile‏@DowneyProfile1m
Orb 4-5, Gcents 8-1, Ttown Five 17-1, Departing 11-1, Mylute 8-1, Oxbow 14-1, Will Take Charge 9-1, Gov Charlie 11-1, Itsmyluckyday 9-1
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STIVO
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« Reply #54 on: May 18, 2013, 02:20:53 PM »

Word on the street is that Departing has not had good gallops coming in and that his work tab is extremely slow. Hmmm.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #55 on: May 18, 2013, 04:28:51 PM »

My guess is that wore him [Oxbow] out, too.

So much for THAT genius analysis!

Hope Janine had it big.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
jrstark
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« Reply #56 on: May 18, 2013, 04:34:05 PM »

Only in your contest, again. Chickened out when it came to real money  bang head
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #57 on: May 18, 2013, 04:37:23 PM »

Congrats to all that had Oxbow. You had the courage to go against the Orb hype machine, which I was part of, unfortunately.

Also, congrats to Gary Stevens, "Coach" D. Wayne Lukas, and the connections of the winner.

Other than that, I stuck to my wagering plan and invested exactly $0.00 in the race. I simply had no idea who would win if Orb didn't get it done, although a front-running type over a speed-favoring track with tight turns (one large DUNCE cap for Mr. Mike Watchmaker, please) is not really a big surprise.
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jgp
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« Reply #58 on: May 18, 2013, 04:45:20 PM »

I think I had every horse in my exotics but orb and oxbow, this sport is painful sometimes.
  doh   
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mel4600
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« Reply #59 on: May 18, 2013, 04:52:08 PM »

Orb was overrated and had no excuses. These jocks let Stevens crawl on the the front and the race was over...he is the master.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #60 on: May 18, 2013, 04:59:15 PM »

Orb was overrated and had no excuses.

A little soon for grave dancing, don't you think Mel?

Let's at least wait for a post-race report to see how he scoped -- horses don't rush up then back through the field like that for nothing. Very strange.
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STIVO
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« Reply #61 on: May 18, 2013, 05:01:03 PM »

Am I the only guy scratching my head? Oxbow with a 2 length easy lead all the way around? Where was Charlie? Where was T-Five? Goldenscents? I was WAY off on my capping for this race? I know the strip was playing to speed today but nobody pressured the winner. Amazing. I was on the wrong COACH horse.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #62 on: May 18, 2013, 05:07:02 PM »

Am I the only guy scratching my head?

Pass me the Head & Shoulders bottle when you are done, please.  dunno
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Pal B
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« Reply #63 on: May 18, 2013, 05:12:24 PM »

Best post Oxbow has had since he dusted the Derby runner-up. Unfortunately for me, Stevens knocked me out of all of my plays with Oxbow in the previous race when he wired up with Skyring. I tossed Itsmyluckyday too and cash a meezly $10 across on Oxbow which barely gets me even. Pretty much proves that this is a very average group of horses or maybe even a tad below average.
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STIVO
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« Reply #64 on: May 18, 2013, 05:18:32 PM »

To be honest, I was excited about Oxbow in the Belmont after he ran "poorly" today. lol. He's bred for longer and has the perfect running style for Big Sandy.
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cliffyy
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« Reply #65 on: May 18, 2013, 05:29:11 PM »

the “super feed” trainers in the throughout the year. Few
publications address this issue, a “taboo” off limits to those sharing with the public. It’s
something we’ve never understood, after all, the subject is so important to the daily
bettors that we feel it’s imperative to mention when applicable, which is often. We
coined the term “super feed” trainers a few years back when patterns began to develop
with the same barns over and over. Without getting into too many specifics, as a
general statement, “super feed” barns have been successful with creating nondetectable
“feed,” with the results similar to EPO. The signs are consistent, horses
finding more down the lane when seemingly ready to fold up, runners whose form has
reversed seemingly overnight since arriving the new barn. Horses passed back and
forth between the “super feed” barns seemingly ignored by the majority of other barns.
Without surveillance on a daily basis the claiming game is the prime source for such
barns. The game changes however in the big days, the BC, the Kentucky Derby, etc,
when the cameras are rolling and security is heightened. Rick Dutrow pushed the
boundaries over and over, eventually resulting in a 10 year ban. There are different
reports with regard to the surveillance used with Big Brown and the Belmont 5 years
ago, and let’s just say there’ve been more than a few I’ve talked to who weren’t
surprised in the least when the horse was pulled up. Today, guys like Mike Maker,
Jamie Ness, David Jacobson, Doug O’Neill, Mike Mitchell, Steve Miyadi, Kirk Ziadie,
Chad Brown, Rudy Rodriguez, and Peter Walder, are all barns worth watching closely.
The thing is, where are these guys on the big days? Funny how that works isn’t it?
They’re frequent visitors to the winner’s circle on a typical Wednesday but on the bigger
days, nope, nowhere to be found. Todd Pletcher has many well bred runners which
clouds the issue a bit more, but again, his dominance throughout the year and “no
show” status on the bigger days, says plenty.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #66 on: May 18, 2013, 05:33:16 PM »

Pass me the Head & Shoulders bottle when you are done, please.  dunno

Did any of the sheets guys either variety predict "bounce"? The thought did cross my mind when I saw what a big # he had on BRIS for the KY Derby vs. previous races, though I admit cross is all it did.
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STIVO
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« Reply #67 on: May 18, 2013, 05:46:12 PM »

Did any of the sheets guys either variety predict "bounce"? The thought did cross my mind when I saw what a big # he had on BRIS for the KY Derby vs. previous races, though I admit cross is all it did.

All of the guys that I know who use the sheets predicted an ORB bounce today but I think the track got him today.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #68 on: May 18, 2013, 06:01:32 PM »

Did any of the sheets guys either variety predict "bounce"? The thought did cross my mind when I saw what a big # he had on BRIS for the KY Derby vs. previous races, though I admit cross is all it did.

For the record, ThoroGraph saw it as: Orb, Itsmyluckday, and Mylute. They were negative on the winner.

No idea what the Raggies did.
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« Reply #69 on: May 18, 2013, 07:26:21 PM »

Congrats to the connections of Oxbow, Gary Stevens, D. Wayne Lukas and Calumet Farm!!

A masterpiece ride by Gary.

I was surprised Orb didn't hit the top 3
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JoeMama
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« Reply #70 on: May 18, 2013, 08:49:42 PM »

Prior to the race, I did not like Oxbow one bit, but I thought he ran better than I expected.... chasing the hot pace on the inside and he lasted longer than the others up there.

Gosh, I am so glad that I cannot bet online and the Teletrack in Carbondale is closed. If he had been a bigger price, I would be more ticked. It is asinine that it is illegal to play online but I can step into Casey's or Huck's and blow my entire pay check on scratch lottery tickets.
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #71 on: May 18, 2013, 10:44:48 PM »

Ray Paulick‏@raypaulick5h
Oxbow's 1:57.54 was slowest @PreaknessStakes since Carry Back won in 1:57 3/5 in 1961.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #72 on: May 18, 2013, 10:49:36 PM »

The ONLY reason I made some money today on the race was that my son gave me the winner.  I would not have picked that horse and had four trifectas with Orb on top.

He has picked the winners the last three so I had to go with his pick this time.

I asked him how he did it  ( I never took him or his brother to the track until they were 18!)  and he said he researched it on his phone.  Go figure.

I also feel really stupid because in the form, which a man pointed out to me, that the consenses didn't have Orb on top at all!  I don't look at that..  Guess I learned another lesson.

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pamwaggy
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« Reply #73 on: May 18, 2013, 10:51:27 PM »

Congrats to the connections of Oxbow, Gary Stevens, D. Wayne Lukas and Calumet Farm!!

A masterpiece ride by Gary.

I was surprised Orb didn't hit the top 3

Gary Stevens has been KICKING A$$!  More power to him.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #74 on: May 18, 2013, 11:10:28 PM »

Gary Stevens has been KICKING A$$!  More power to him.

He sure did
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