Chicago Barn to Wire BRIS
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


August 21, 2014, 03:11:41 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Preakness  (Read 2975 times)
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #25 on: May 17, 2013, 08:52:06 AM »

horseracinghl‏@horseracinghl1m
Bob Baffert on Orb "Anybody who is not rooting for Orb there is something mentally wrong with them. I have a lot of respect for that horse."
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #26 on: May 17, 2013, 09:45:10 AM »

Stephen Panus‏@Man_o_PR17m
Content airing on @NBCSports including @PreaknessStakes, will be streamed to PC’s, mobile devices & tablets via http://NBCSports.com/liveextra
Report to moderator   Logged
mel4600
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2255




Ignore
« Reply #27 on: May 17, 2013, 09:46:17 AM »


Then there is the Legitimate Favorite:

* Fastest
* In form
* No knocks
* Competitors have no real surprises for him
* "looks the part": sharp appearance, holding his flesh well 
* His race to win; the only way he loses is if he beats himself, or something horrific happens (i.e., Barbaro, R.I.P.)

I just described Orb to a "t" with the Legit Favorite requirements; you can deny some or all of them, but IMO saying he is "very beatable" is just HOPING and PRAYING for some kind of miracle so you can have bragging rights that "you KNEW more than the public", etc...and if you are wrong, you get no special punishment, just another losing race. It's "Peacock Handicapping".


In order to meet your criteria of a "legitimate favorite" usually describes a less than even money wager. I wouldn't bet horses if it came to that. I will also add that young 3 year olds change like the weather, sometimes a horse just comes of age in its development process. Like I said, while Orb is, and should be the favorite, he can be beat "legitimately" in this race.
Report to moderator   Logged
mel4600
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2255




Ignore
« Reply #28 on: May 17, 2013, 09:49:26 AM »

I wound up going back to Goldencents

He looks dangerous here.
Report to moderator   Logged
TheRedMile
Guest

« Reply #29 on: May 17, 2013, 09:57:44 AM »

unless orb throws in a clunker the race is for 2nd.
goldencents and itsmyluckyday imo have the best shots of an upset but the outside post hampers itsmyluckyday.
departing beat up a weak il derby field and figures to be used underneath in exotics
the rest are tossouts to me
if there is a shocker i hope it is titletown 5 partially owned by former packers hornung and davis
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #30 on: May 17, 2013, 10:08:15 AM »

Weather forecast for tomorrow from AccuWeather.com:

High of 70, not as warm with variable cloudiness; a shower or thunderstorm in spots late in the afternoon.

46% chance of precipitation.
Report to moderator   Logged
Psycho Dad
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1261




Ignore
« Reply #31 on: May 17, 2013, 10:15:10 AM »


And JGP, what % of a
days races do most pros play?  About 12 to 15%.   Some play far less.



I have always gone to the beat of a different drum.  When I bet professionally, I tried to bet 100% of the races, but I did vary the amount bet greatly.

Why did I bet 100%?  Because I found that when I laid off races, or more importantly, gave myself the mental capacity to lay off races -- I lost concentration.

To my way of thinking, those of you are making decisions to lay off a race without knowing the odds -- have lost concentration.

But as we all know, if you talk to 10 successful handicappers, you will find them provide 10 different explanations and strategies for their success.
Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4267




Ignore
« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2013, 10:19:55 AM »

In order to meet your criteria of a "legitimate favorite" usually describes a less than even money wager. I wouldn't bet horses if it came to that.

Nor would I. Fortunately, not that many favorites are really "legitimate" favorites...and a vulnerable or suspect favorite winning doesn't necessarily mean they were really legit -- things just went their way just enough to overcome whatever negatives they might have been facing.

The point -- some are struggling with this, I sense -- is that once we have identified a favorite as legitimate, we simply don't bet against it. Secretariat, Cigar, Zenyatta...or more recently, on Ky Derby day, Wise Dan (when Point of Entry scratched) -- where is the upside in trying to beat a horse that is so much better than the competition?

I will also add that young 3 year olds change like the weather, sometimes a horse just comes of age in its development process.

This is a great point, and while it does happen throughout the year with 3 year olds (and some lightly raced 4 year olds), The Preakness doesn't seem to be the spot. ThoroGraph just released a study of Preakness starters going back to 1995, and one eye-popping stat had to do with Preakness runners that had also just run in the Kentucky Derby:

* If a horse going into The Preakness didn't just pair his lifetime top performance in the Ky Derby, he has less than a 5% chance of winning The Preakness.

This makes sense because two weeks is such a short interval from the Ky Derby to The Preakness; what horse can recover from the exertion of the Derby -AND- keep growing and developing by leaps and bounds? That the Preakness winner frequently matches or exceeds his Derby effort (about 1/2 the time) is merely a strong sign of a ready, fit and in form 3 year old -- no "overnight miracle growth session" is required.   

If that stat has any meaning at all, you can kiss Oxbox, Goldenscents, Mylute, and Will Take Charge goodbye from a betting perspective, unless you are getting at least 25-1 on any of them. That ain't happening. Orb is the only one from the group of Derby runners that fits.

Like I said, while Orb is, and should be the favorite, he can be beat "legitimately" in this race.

While I agree that Orb can be beat -- hell, any horse can be beat -- I disagree on the "legitimately" part. He's going to have to be beat himself with a bad trip, or a bad step late, or come up sick, or...God forbid, something worse. Misfortune isn't the kind of thing I care to bet on, and I'm telling you, that is what it will take to beat him. No one is going to beat Orb "on the square" Saturday. It's his race to win or lose.
Report to moderator   Logged
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 11966

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #33 on: May 17, 2013, 10:56:34 AM »

Think Ill look to catch a price on Departing or Governor Charlie, I'm hoping Orb gets bet at even odds.

I wish the ML on Departing was a bit higher, but I still may take a shot esp if the actual odds drift higher. His La. Derby loss could be excused due to trouble, and I don't think we've seen how good he really is (or isn't) yet.
Report to moderator   Logged

"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
Psycho Dad
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1261




Ignore
« Reply #34 on: May 17, 2013, 12:25:18 PM »

* If a horse going into The Preakness didn't just pair his lifetime top performance in the Ky Derby, he has less than a 5% chance of winning The Preakness.

This makes sense because two weeks is such a short interval from the Ky Derby to The Preakness; what horse can recover from the exertion of the Derby -AND- keep growing and developing by leaps and bounds? That the Preakness winner frequently matches or exceeds his Derby effort (about 1/2 the time) is merely a strong sign of a ready, fit and in form 3 year old -- no "overnight miracle growth session" is required.   

If that stat has any meaning at all, you can kiss Oxbox, Goldenscents, Mylute, and Will Take Charge goodbye from a betting perspective, unless you are getting at least 25-1 on any of them. That ain't happening. Orb is the only one from the group of Derby runners that fits.


I agree in principal.  The wild card this year, though, is the sloppy track at the Derby.
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #35 on: May 17, 2013, 01:13:36 PM »

David Grening‏@DRFGrening7m
In early betting, Orb (3-5), Mylute (7-1), Goldencents (8-1), luckyday (10-1), Gov Charlie (11-1), WTC (13-1), Oxbow (16-1) Titletn 5 (23-1)

David Grening‏@DRFGrening5m
.@rich_witt1  Departing (14-1). Sorry about that.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2013, 01:17:11 PM by Mary Ann » Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4267




Ignore
« Reply #36 on: May 17, 2013, 01:22:25 PM »

I agree in principal.  The wild card this year, though, is the sloppy track at the Derby.

The Derby has been run over a sloppy track quite a few times since 1995. It's factored into that stat already.
Report to moderator   Logged
our favorite omen
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1038




Ignore
« Reply #37 on: May 17, 2013, 05:26:53 PM »

Departing at 14-1 is worth a small bet.  That is my pick, hoping that Orb somehow throws in a bounce or clunker.
OFO
Report to moderator   Logged
jgp
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 638




Ignore
« Reply #38 on: May 17, 2013, 07:49:15 PM »

Terry, we could go Wilcox Inn/Departing for the Illinois themed double.  If I can get 14-1 on Departing I'll take a w/p shot.  I remember winning a nice exacta with orb when he was on the rail at Keeneland a few races back, I have a hunch the winner is coming from the outside.  I know someone mentioned earlier that with field size of nine, its not that big of a deal.  Orb obviously has the ability to win from the front or the back, but I'm assuming that he has to go to the lead being in his position. 
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2013, 08:01:32 PM »

Preakness: Baffert, Lukas agree: It will take something out of the norm to beat Orb

http://www.kentucky.com/2013/05/17/2644309/preakness-baffert-lukas-agree.html#
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2013, 09:14:54 PM »

The final odds from Friday’s advance wagering offered on the Preakness are as follows:
 
1. Orb 4-5
2. Goldencents 7-1
3. Titletown Five 23-1
4. Departing 11-1
5. Mylute 7-1
6. Oxbow 14-1
7. Will Take Charge 12-1
8. Govenor Charlie 11-1
9. Itsmyluckyday 9-1

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-stakes-orb-4-5-early-betting
Report to moderator   Logged
JoeMama
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1170




Ignore
« Reply #41 on: May 17, 2013, 10:16:24 PM »

Prior to the race, I did not like Oxbow one bit, but I thought he ran better than I expected.... chasing the hot pace on the inside and he lasted longer than the others up there.
Report to moderator   Logged
journalstuff
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2744




Ignore
« Reply #42 on: May 17, 2013, 11:28:02 PM »

I think Orb will win the Preakness
Report to moderator   Logged
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 11966

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2013, 11:47:52 PM »

Prior to the race, I did not like Oxbow one bit, but I thought he ran better than I expected.... chasing the hot pace on the inside and he lasted longer than the others up there.

My guess is that wore him out, too.
Report to moderator   Logged

"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 11966

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2013, 11:48:35 PM »

I think Orb will win the Preakness

You're usually correct.

Good luck to all bettors, no matter who you picked.
Report to moderator   Logged

"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
The Commander
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1242

If you come at the King. You best not miss.




Ignore
« Reply #45 on: May 18, 2013, 12:00:36 AM »

I heard Oxboner and Will Take Charge had a great deal of legal vet work done prior to the Derby, similar to Ice Box before the big race a few years ago and as a result you can count of both to regress tomorrow. 
Report to moderator   Logged
Mick
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1151




Ignore
« Reply #46 on: May 18, 2013, 08:06:51 AM »

I have always gone to the beat of a different drum.  When I bet professionally, I tried to bet 100% of the races, but I did vary the amount bet greatly.  Why did I bet 100%?  Because I found that when I laid off races, or more importantly, gave myself the mental capacity to lay off races -- I lost concentration.

To my way of thinking, those of you are making decisions to lay off a race without knowing the odds -- have lost concentration.  But as we all know, if you talk to 10 successful handicappers, you will find them provide 10 different explanations and strategies for their success.
This is just the opposite of the way I was taught but as you say, everyone has there own method.

The reasons for this style being opposite are pretty simple.   Horses who run in low priced claimers often are animals whose form is inconsistent.   They can go from 40 lengths back in one race to a win, followed by another up the track performance.   Allowance, Stakes and handicap horses tend to be more consistent, therefore more predictable.

Second is all about concentration, it took a good two hours for me to handicap one race.   You put all of yourself into that race and you expect a return on your investment.  Perhaps we would bet two races a day, tops.   But we would do that 4 - 6 days a week and try for a consistent percentage return. 

I can see how your method could work.   If you have the luxury of time to immerse yourself in racing, you could focus on every race, bet small when you are in doubt but when you see something that gives you and edge, bet large.   Like when an animal all of a sudden matures and hits his stride or when he got a bad break that wasn't noted in the form.   Bits of information that you can only get at the track can be important and immersing yourself in horse racing is a legitimate way to win.   Like you said though, you must focus and concentrate on everything.
Report to moderator   Logged

I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 738




Ignore
« Reply #47 on: May 18, 2013, 08:33:24 AM »

I played a $1 tri usin Orb on top of Departing, Goldencents, and Itsmyluckyday
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2036




Ignore
« Reply #48 on: May 18, 2013, 09:01:58 AM »

David Grening‏@DRFGrening15m
Joel Rosario, named on every race before Preakness, has taken off mounts in races 1,2,3 and 5

David Grening‏@DRFGrening4m
I believe I erred in Rosario changes. He is on Aussi Austin in 1st. He took off 2,3 and 5.

Bradley Weisbord‏@BradWeisbord9m
Circumstances put Joel on to many today....all three trainers that we came off were very supportive-TOP AGENT

Andy Serling‏@andyserling1h
Today's Pimlico Pick-5 is a mandatory payout with a carryover of over $83K.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2013, 09:21:42 AM by Mary Ann » Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4267




Ignore
« Reply #49 on: May 18, 2013, 09:21:05 AM »

I played a $1 tri usin Orb on top of Departing, Goldencents, and Itsmyluckyday

I estimate that this will pay ~$30 if Goldenscents runs second...otherwise, $45, tops.
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.098 seconds with 16 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Arlington Million
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy