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Author Topic: Preakness  (Read 3089 times)
Mary Ann
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« on: May 06, 2013, 03:17:56 PM »

Very early PP's for possible entrants in Preakness:

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness13PPs.pdf
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2013, 04:11:14 PM »

Preakness probables PP's:

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness13PPs.pdf
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2013, 05:37:47 PM »

Preakness TV Coverage (Eastern time):

Fri. May 17
 
3-4 p.m. Preakness Classics, NBC Sports Network
4-5 p.m. Black Eyed Susan Stakes, NBC Sports Network


Sat. May 18

2:30-4:30 p.m. Preakness Stakes Saturday, NBC Sports Network
4:30-6:30 p.m. Preakness Stakes, NBC
6:30-7 p.m. Preakness Post-Race Show, NBC Sports Network

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78232/nbc-plans-6-12-hours-of-preakness-coverage
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2013, 06:17:15 PM »

Latest Preakness probables PP's (down to 9):

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness13PPs.pdf
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2013, 02:19:59 PM »

Some are finding this to be rather cryptic:

"Bob Baffert‏@Midnightlute45m
Govenor Charlie not confirmed for Preakness till he gets on plane tomorrow"

Yesterday, the story was a decision would be made this morning. This morning, Baffert said Charlie was working well so he thought he could run in Preakness.

I guess we will know for sure tomorrow.

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Mary Ann
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2013, 08:01:21 AM »

From Baffert 9 minutes ago:

Bob Baffert‏@Midnightlute9m
After strong showing on track this morning Gov is running in Preakness
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STIVO
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2013, 04:35:48 PM »

Mylute was installed as the 5-1 2nd choice at 5-1? Wow. Laughable at best.
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jgp
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2013, 05:00:14 PM »

Orb starts on the rail at the 1.  Does he go try to go wire to wire?
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2013, 06:06:42 PM »

Preakness PP's with post positions:

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=PIM&race=12&date=2013-05-18
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the exactorman
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2013, 07:53:53 PM »

Orb starts on the rail at the 1.  Does he go try to go wire to wire?
It would be nice to see Orb win for Shug and the chance at the triple crown at Belmont, however, 1-1 ML odds?
If his odds are 1-1 or lower, I cant see placing a bet.
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jgp
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2013, 08:56:01 PM »

Think Ill look to catch a price on Departing or Governor Charlie, I'm hoping Orb gets bet at even odds.
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Ghostjones
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2013, 09:44:17 PM »

Orb starts on the rail at the 1.  Does he go try to go wire to wire?

the one hole in a 9 horse field is not bad. wire to wire?  maybe if the field scratches down to him and MyLute in a match race.



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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2013, 08:12:13 AM »

It would be nice to see Orb win for Shug and the chance at the triple crown at Belmont, however, 1-1 ML odds?
If his odds are 1-1 or lower, I cant see placing a bet.

It is rare for a horse that is even money morning line, to go off higher odds.  I'm guessing 3-5.
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STIVO
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2013, 08:51:47 AM »

I love the odds of the Preakness. Orb too low. Everyone is gonna then jump on the horses I'm completely throwing out (Gov. Charlie, Mylute & Departing). This is working out perfectly.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2013, 09:35:37 AM »

Orb too low.

Doesn't matter. He's the legitimate favorite...and as we all learned in Handicapping 101, we either use the legit favorite on top, or we pass the race...but we don't try to beat him! That is the short path to the pari-mutuel poorhouse.

Plenty of other fine races on which we can wager Saturday. I will root for Orb and a possible Triple Crown winner with exactly $0.00 invested* in The Preakness.



* After consulting the Simulcasting Statutes, I discovered that we are not legally obligated to make some sort of wager on The Preakness...or any other race, for that matter! It turns out that passing a race is perfectly legal. Who knew?
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2013, 10:00:08 AM »

While I agree that there is no law on betting every race, I disagree with the premise that you should pass a race if you think the best horse is overbet.

I frequently make bets based on the odds.  Like I said in an earlier post, the Derby winner is usually overbet in the Derby.


I firmly believe that there is no such thing as a sure thing.  If I thought that was true, I would bet Orb even if he went down to 1-9.

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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2013, 10:14:21 AM »

While I agree that there is no law on betting every race, I disagree with the premise that you should pass a race if you think the best horse is overbet.

I also disagree with that premise. For the record, it's not what I wrote.

I wrote that you don't try to beat a legitimate favorite -- you either use him on top (bet to win and / or key on top in exotics), or pass the race.

If the favorite is overbet, and the exactas with the favorite on top are underlaid, it's pretty simple: no value, no bet.
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mel4600
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2013, 03:08:13 PM »

I also disagree with that premise. For the record, it's not what I wrote.

I wrote that you don't try to beat a legitimate favorite -- you either use him on top (bet to win and / or key on top in exotics), or pass the race.

If the favorite is overbet, and the exactas with the favorite on top are underlaid, it's pretty simple: no value, no bet.

How do you "legitimize" a favorite? Most favorites are "legitimate" and win less than 25% (estimate) of the time. Orb should be the heavy favorite here but I think he is also very beatable here.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2013, 03:48:09 PM »

How do you "legitimize" a favorite? Most favorites are "legitimate" and win less than 25% (estimate) of the time. Orb should be the heavy favorite here but I think he is also very beatable here.

Favorites come in several flavors:

* "False": usually plain to see that the linemaker has made an error, and the horse he tabbed as the ML favorite is D.O.B., while the public identifies the real favorite.

(Ironically, this just happened in the KY Derby, when Mike Battaglia made Verrazano the ML fave. The public got it right.)

* "Suspect": yes, he's probably the best but he has knocks: he threw a bad race last time, or he's coming off a layoff and never runs well off a layoff, or it's sloppy today and he does his best running on dry surfaces.

* "Vulnerable": he's probably the best, but there are several first time starters that have been training up a storm, or there is a sharp foreign invader getting first lasix, etc.

Then there is the Legitimate Favorite:

* Fastest
* In form
* No knocks
* Competitors have no real surprises for him
* "looks the part": sharp appearance, holding his flesh well 
* His race to win; the only way he loses is if he beats himself, or something horrific happens (i.e., Barbaro, R.I.P.)

I just described Orb to a "t" with the Legit Favorite requirements; you can deny some or all of them, but IMO saying he is "very beatable" is just HOPING and PRAYING for some kind of miracle so you can have bragging rights that "you KNEW more than the public", etc...and if you are wrong, you get no special punishment, just another losing race. It's "Peacock Handicapping".
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jgp
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« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2013, 03:56:19 PM »

Most of my profitable days have come by finding beatable favorites, at least on the win bets.  But your right HV, I can't imagine a successful handicapper betting every race of a card.  I wonder what percentage of races in card gets passed on by a professional caper. On a side note, I kind of hope Orb wins this one to set up some huge odds on the field at Belmont.
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Mary Ann
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2013, 04:03:44 PM »

Found this interesting what Dale Romans had to say about Orb:

J.J. Hysell‏@trifectabox2h
Dale Romans: I think Orb is going to win the #Preakness and I think hell win the Triple Crown. Ive never said that about another horse.

And Plesa says:

KY Derby Contenders‏@DerbyContenders4h
Plesa, Jr. on #KyDerby hero Orb: Hes the best 3-year-old in the country, no question about it. He could be Horse of the Year."

And other Churchill trainers talk about Orb:

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/More_Racing_News/2013/05/16/orb-in-the-preakness-churchill-downs-trainers-weigh-in.629879
« Last Edit: May 16, 2013, 05:03:16 PM by Mary Ann » Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2013, 06:03:33 PM »

Meet Orb in this short but interesting video and check out what happened to his nose:

http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/05/15/sports/100000002227105/a-triple-crown-threat.html#100000002227105
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faster horses
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« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2013, 06:42:09 PM »

I'm a big Orb fan, but in the Derby he got a great pace to run at and loved the mud.  He's probably more vulnerable than most people think.  I may pass the race, but I could see trying to beat him.  I don't think I'll bet on him in any case.  (I'm still carrying a bunch of Franklins from the Derby.  No reason to put them at risk without a shot at a decent return.)
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« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2013, 10:10:55 PM »

Orb is legitimate, and it will be his race to lose. H-V and I disagree often, but he has this race summed up well.  I cannot fault what he has already posted.

The mystery will of course be the other multiple graded stakes winner, Goldencents. You have to toss his Derby completely to even think of playing him.......but at 1 3/16 miles.....he is no guarantee even with a 100% effort.

The Preakness field appears to me to be a lot softer than the Derby. And Orb ran off from that group. With less
potential traffic problems here.....and a fast track......why shouldn't he be even money?  He seems to be able to
handle slow pace or fast, slop or fast over several racing surfaces.  And he's sound. 

I won't bet against him.........or on him..   Some races hold no opportunity for the punter.  And JGP, what % of a
days races do most pros play?  About 12 to 15%.   Some play far less.

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The more you bet...the more you win
brianwspencer
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« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2013, 10:28:50 PM »

The mystery will of course be the other multiple graded stakes winner, Goldencents. You have to toss his Derby completely to even think of playing him.......but at 1 3/16 miles.....he is no guarantee even with a 100% effort.

I wound up going back to Goldencents -- only because I thought he was good enough to win the Derby, and though there are certainly two sides to this coin, I think he has some potential excuses.

He's questionable at this trip, but he had plenty going against him in the Derby. Quick pace (which he has handled in the past with some success, but nothing like that), off track (which he had never tried before), and he was taking a bit of dirt in his face it seemed for the first time in his life.

Generally, I find the more typing I have to do to try to explain my pick, the less sound it is, but he's fast enough to win a race like this with his A-game. That said, at a price that's potentially going to be better than it was against 18 horses in the Derby, he's worth a look to me.

Off that last effort, I won't be surprised if he runs 6th, but I also won't be surprised if he wins. We'll see -- Orb might just be that good.
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