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Author Topic: Jon Court Sucked today  (Read 3385 times)
STIVO
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« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2013, 06:01:13 PM »

Stivo, this article may help. You'll have to look at the article for the chart. This article gives a lot of statistics.

"Will Take Charge was making the same move as Orb around the far turn of the big race. Just to the inside of the eventual winner, Will Take Charge actually recorded the fastest sixteenth from the five-sixteenths pole to the quarter pole. And then Will Take Charge ran into the one thing any Derby horse making a big move cannot afford to face – a tiring horse, directly in front of him.  Below, take note of the two sixteenth-mile segments, first from the five-sixteenths to the quarter pole, and then from the quarter pole to the three-sixteenths.  The five-fastest individual performances from that last portion of the far turn are noted on the left, in order, with Will Take Charge’s time being just slightly faster than Orb, with eventual second Golden Soul being third-fastest at that point, then third-placer Revolutionary being fourth-fastest and fifth-home Mylute.
 
Then look at the first sixteenth-mile segment in the home stretch on the right - Will Take Charge ran up on the heels of Verrazano.  How much does that hurt your chances of a better finish? Within a sixteenth of a mile, Will Take Charge went from running the fastest segment to the fourth-slowest."

http://www.followhorseracing.com/en/the-latest/blogs/2013/05/6/inside-the-trip-kentucky-derby-trakus-data/


Great article! Validates my selection. HV is acting like the horse pressed the pace and faded.
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STIVO
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« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2013, 06:04:16 PM »

Also, I have discussed his trip with many astute horseplayers, they agree with my premise that this 36-1 shot would have hit the board. BTW, thanks for pointing out that I loved Orb & WTC as my exacta in your rebuttal. Those were pretty much the only two horses I mentioned.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2013, 06:11:12 PM by STIVO » Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2013, 06:12:09 PM »

Look, I caught you on this thread. The overhead proves it. The articles prove it.

Sorry, you lost me with these comments. I don't know what you "caught" or what you think has been "proven".

All the overhead proved to me is that Court had absolutely nowhere to go when Verrazano bore out suddenly. You are suspiciously quiet on this now, after I asked you what you think Court *should* have done.

As far as WTC potentially hitting the board goes...

I've watched over 500,000 horse races in my 25 years as a handicapper.

I have seen THOUSANDS of horses get checked, and then re-engage and start running again...some even have come back and won outright.

WTC didn't start running again, even after being asked. He quit. Why?

As Mary Ann's post said, he came home the last sixteenth in the 4th slowest time.

How on earth you infer that he would have hit the board is beyond me.

You are CLEARLY in denial here. Sorry, I can't help you.
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mel4600
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« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2013, 06:13:46 PM »

I agree with HV that Stivo is putting too much blame on Court, I also disagree with HV if he thinks WTC had no run left. He got checked up twice with Zano (my pick...lol) and still re-rallied to come running. Second place truly looked plausible. Velasquez  came out and caused the initial check and then Velasquez darted back in checking him a second time. WTC then started running again clearly to regain momentum however, much to late at that point in the races. No horse could have re-rallied at that point to be a factor in the race.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2013, 06:17:15 PM »

BTW, thanks for pointing out that I loved Orb & WTC as my exacta in your rebuttal. Those were pretty much the only two horses I mentioned.

My rebuttal was proof that you DID NOT "handicap the hell" out of the race, as you wrote a few posts back; you merely went with the two horses you selected two months ago. Thanks for reaffirming my rebuttal.

You really don't need to be so defensive about WTC's performance -- you DID nail ORB correctly...and in a 19 horse field, getting 1 out of 2 home ain't too shabby.  thumbs up
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STIVO
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« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2013, 06:24:45 PM »

HV, in my opinion, JC could have moved the horse inside. What do you think Borel or Rosario would have done if on the animal....much better than 8th! Also, he not only got checked, but gashed Verazanno's hocks into BLOODY MESS! The HD version is much better (recorded at home) because you can see WTC chopping down with his front forelegs at the same time - three times in a row. Please HV, don't get blinded here. I don't make many excuses for horses running bad but in this case, he clearly had a horrible trip. I'm just hoping he doesn't turn into a Dollar Bill. Remember him? Anyway, I don't want to argue on this subject too much more. Lets see what happens in the Preakness. He's going.
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2013, 06:31:30 PM »

I went back and watched the replay,the horse was spent. Would he have finished a little closer without the trouble down the lane...probably.
He doesn't finish well. Even in his last race, which was his big one,he finished in a pedestrian manner. The horses that finished ahead of him in the Derby have shown they run significantly faster than him down the stretch.
Is there a chance he could have sustained his run in the Derby without the trouble.....maybe but very unlikely unless he was going to leap forward and do something he had never shown the ability to do in the past.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2013, 06:36:14 PM »

HV, in my opinion, JC could have moved the horse inside. What do you think Borel or Rosario would have done if on the animal....much better than 8th! Also, he not only got checked, but gashed Verazanno's hocks into BLOODY MESS! The HD version is much better (recorded at home) because you can see WTC chopping down with his front forelegs at the same time - three times in a row. Please HV, don't get blinded here. I don't make many excuses for horses running bad but in this case, he clearly had a horrible trip. I'm just hoping he doesn't turn into a Dollar Bill. Remember him? Anyway, I don't want to argue on this subject too much more. Lets see what happens in the Preakness. He's going.

I would only point out that it was easy for YOU AND ME to see on TV that Court could have swung inside and got away with it, but...under the circumstances, he did the SAFE and PRUDENT thing; he didn't exactly have an HD view of the situation with all that mud and crud flying around, did he?

As far as Verrazano and his cuts, well, if you or I suddenly change lanes on the expressway while slowing down, we are going to take it in the ass, pretty hard...right? That could have been ALOT worse.

Other than that, OK, let's drop it. If WTC runs big in the Preakness, you will be instantly vindicated, and I will send several of these  bowing bowing bowing your way.
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« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2013, 06:47:13 PM »

One more thought:

Pimlico's turns are a little on the "tight" side, and I'm wondering -- if WTC is as big as you say he is now (over 17 hands? what a beast!)...have you thought about how he will fare in Baltimore?

WTC just might be the perfect horse for The Belmont, if he can stay 12 furlongs!
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STIVO
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« Reply #34 on: May 06, 2013, 06:47:33 PM »

I went back and watched the replay,the horse was spent. Would he have finished a little closer without the trouble down the lane...probably.
He doesn't finish well. Even in his last race, which was his big one,he finished in a pedestrian manner. The horses that finished ahead of him in the Derby have shown they run significantly faster than him down the stretch.
Is there a chance he could have sustained his run in the Derby without the trouble.....maybe but very unlikely unless he was going to leap forward and do something he had never shown the ability to do in the past.

Wow. You watched the overhead? Also, what has Golden Soul done in the past? Also, Revolutionary hasn't run fast yet either...he finished third with no trouble.
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STIVO
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« Reply #35 on: May 06, 2013, 06:49:22 PM »

I have to clear my head and think about the Preakness...not get too emotional. I have my opinion on the Derby and I'll leave it at that.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2013, 07:09:19 PM by STIVO » Report to moderator   Logged
NYRA 792
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« Reply #36 on: May 06, 2013, 06:53:32 PM »

the last 3 final fractions measured in feet per second traveled---when you start to get a difference of .7 or more it becomes very significant

TakeChargeIndy
51.59
48.90
49.95

GoldenSoul

53.52
53.14
51.32

Revolutionary

52.74
53.40
53.51

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STIVO
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« Reply #37 on: May 06, 2013, 07:01:08 PM »

And, what is your point? I can probably beat you in a foot race (don't know you but I'm pretty fast) and if I run into the back of someone and almost fall down with 20 yards to go, I'll lose the race to you every time. Not sure where you're going with this...... Huh
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TheRedMile
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« Reply #38 on: May 06, 2013, 07:03:03 PM »

HV. The horse was off since the Rebel and training fantastically. I did a huge write-up in Publichandicapper. Read it. Look, I caught you on this thread. The overhead proves it. The articles prove it. He's a big 17 hand horse. More like a train than a Ferrari. Did you see the momentum he had? No way he was going to do an Afleet Alex, he's not that type of horse. He needs to be in the clear. Say what you want HV, but you know that this horse was live and the amazing thing is that he ran so well being washed out. Cannot wait till the Preakness.

im going to disagree on the training fantastically part.i read differently about his cd works and appearance
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STIVO
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« Reply #39 on: May 06, 2013, 07:05:41 PM »

im going to disagree on the training fantastically part.i read differently about his cd works and appearance

Niatross, my notes leading up to the Derby on WTC. I keep notes like this on every horse:

4/21/13
Will Take Charge joined stablemate Channel Isle at the 5 1/2-furlong pole and finished well in front while posting fractions of :13 3/5, :26, :38 3/5, :51, 1:03 4/5, 1:16 4/5, and 1:29 2/5. He was credited with a 1:56 1/5 gallop-out time for 1 1/8 miles.

"The work went very well, it was good," said Lukas, a four-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer. "I was pleased. I told Jon coming off the track that this horse could cost me a lot of sleepless nights because I am getting excited. He wasn't blowing at all when he came off the track."

The son of Unbridled's Song   won the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park in his most recent start March 16. He has posted four breezes since then, including his latest.

"I worked him a mile the last time and I might do six or seven (furlongs) next week," Lukas said. "He is 17 hands, like a big, gangly kid. I gave him a light month to give him some time to fill out."


4/22/13 – Jill Byrne on HRTV said that Will Take Charge had the work of the day (4-21).
4/25/13 – Jill Bryne on HRTV was asked who the best looking horse was in the field, she said WTC.
4/29/13 – From Bloodhorse Article: After Oxbow worked, Will Take Charge went five furlongs in 1:01 flat under exercise rider Rudy Quevedo. Willis Horton's flashy 3-year-old son of Unbridled's Song   registered splits of :11 3/5, :23 1/5, :35 1/5, and galloped six furlongs out in 1:14 2/5.
"Will Take Charge was a little bit slower, but Rudy was afraid," Lukas joked. "I pretty much beat up on him in there about going too fast this close (to the Derby), so less is always better. Always better."
4/29/13 – Richard Migliore on HRTV thought he heard a rasping sound.
5/5/13 - Will Take Charge, ridden by Jon Court, was following Orb on the far turn, but at the top of the stretch had to check behind a retreating Verrazano.

"He got a little nick and that is maybe where it happened," Lukas said. "The seven-week break (from the Rebel, gr. II) was a good idea and I'd do it again. He was a fresh horse and I think he will definitely be better in the next one."


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NYRA 792
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« Reply #40 on: May 06, 2013, 07:05:54 PM »

Those other horses were significantly  faster down the stretch than your horse going into the Derby.
To think that TakeChargeIndy was going to sustain his run in the Derby is a bit of a reach considering the finishing abilty he has demonstrated in the past.
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STIVO
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« Reply #41 on: May 06, 2013, 07:09:58 PM »

Those other horses were significantly  faster down the stretch than your horse going into the Derby.
To think that TakeChargeIndy was going to sustain his run in the Derby is a bit of a reach considering the finishing abilty he has demonstrated in the past.


And, I respectfully disagree.
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TheRedMile
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« Reply #42 on: May 06, 2013, 07:18:39 PM »

stivo,
hard to say the work on 4/21 was the work of the day because the drf only shows him working at that distance
the comments from the drf people were not as favorable.the work on 4/29 was not what i was looking for.i luv those who thrive over the cd surface.
over the last few yrs i have lost some respect for lukas.some of them horses simply did not belong imo.
when the track turn to mush i liked wtc's huge wet number along with oxbow's.i went to oxbow because of the inside post w the 1 scratching.stevens stepping on the gas was another story
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STIVO
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« Reply #43 on: May 06, 2013, 08:06:19 PM »

Some interesting comments from Lukas today:

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Oxbow and Will Take Charge would remain at Churchill Downs until May 15, entry day for the Preakness, when they would be flown to Maryland.

I may or may not work them before then,” Lukas said. “If they do work, it’d probably be the Monday or Tuesday before. Definitely not up there. I’ll let them tell me how they’re doing and go from there.”

Will Take Charge, ridden by Jon Court, had perhaps the roughest trip of the entire Derby field when checked sharply in upper stretch behind the tiring Verrazano.

We had some bad luck there,” Lukas said. “The colt ran a huge race.

Will Take Charge raced with a small patch on the front wall of his left front hoof.

“He races in glue-on shoes,” Lukas said. “When he was being shod Thursday, a tiny piece of the front wall came out when the nail was pulled. That was nothing. The horse has no foot problems at all.”
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STIVO
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« Reply #44 on: May 08, 2013, 09:36:24 AM »

As expected, Jon Court was removed of his duties for the Will Take Charge mount. Mike Smith will ride.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78142/lukas-names-jockeys-for-preakness-trio

Lukas' big disappointment in the Derby was seeing Will Take Charge make a huge move on the far turn under Jon Court while matching strides with the eventual winner, only to check sharply when he got stopped by a tiring Verrazano.

"He was going to be 1-2, and he might have won it," Lukas said. "I was sick over it. We had a chance to pull it off with the seven-week layoff, and I think I had it right. That horse is 17 hands and you can't just stop and start with a horse that big.



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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #45 on: May 08, 2013, 09:48:57 AM »

Steve, how well do you know your jockeys?

That wild swing inside you wanted Court to make to avoid Verrazano? You really think Mike Smith is going to take that kind of chance, if that situation comes up again?

Just sayin'...
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STIVO
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« Reply #46 on: May 08, 2013, 10:06:45 AM »

Steve, how well do you know your jockeys?

That wild swing inside you wanted Court to make to avoid Verrazano? You really think Mike Smith is going to take that kind of chance, if that situation comes up again?

Just sayin'...

Yes I do HV. It wasn't going to be a "Wild Swing" either. Lukas is apparently having the same nightmares as me.
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STIVO
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« Reply #47 on: May 08, 2013, 10:12:27 AM »

One more thought:

Pimlico's turns are a little on the "tight" side, and I'm wondering -- if WTC is as big as you say he is now (over 17 hands? what a beast!)...have you thought about how he will fare in Baltimore?

WTC just might be the perfect horse for The Belmont, if he can stay 12 furlongs!

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tight-turned-and-speed-favoring-nope
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« Reply #48 on: May 08, 2013, 10:36:45 AM »

Yes I do HV.

You haven't been watching Mike Smith for the past few years, then. At least, not closely: he hardly ever goes inside, and almost NEVER takes any chances.

He's been that way since he spent six months on the sidelines in a back brace.

Nothing has changed much, from Court to Smith, IMO: you have a HUGE horse that can't stop and re-start very well, and if he doesn't get a clean trip, he's pretty much done. A short field in the Preakness would be a HUGE help. Pray for scratches.

Like I said earlier: the Belmont is WTC's best chance for some TC black type. All IMO. I don't expect you to change your opinion now -- you are way past that point.
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STIVO
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« Reply #49 on: May 08, 2013, 01:42:02 PM »

HV, You might be right and I may have too much faith in this animal but I think he's the most talented horse in the TC. He will be the best horse over the next year IMHO. Am I crazy as hell? We'll see. We'll see in about 10 days!
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