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Author Topic: source of pride debuts sat at big m  (Read 668 times)
sam
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« on: April 19, 2013, 07:26:46 AM »

debuts sat at big m  tony (captain treacherous) seems to think will be very good this year will he be one of the top 3 yr olds this year? qualifier was good not great who knows how much he was used? has  the 9 so we will get a glimpse in this race
 
Thinking a little outside the box but knowing who his friends are, Alagna singled out Source Of Pride from the Jimmy Takter stable as a 3-year-old we might wish to look out for.

Hes a brother to American Jewel that could be a top horse, Alagna said of the Brittany Farm-co-owned colt, a owner he trains for regularly. Source Of Pride captured a division of the Reynolds in an abbreviated 2-year-old campaign.
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sulkyfromouterspace
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2013, 01:07:20 PM »

Thanks Sam !     thumbs up
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Bet with Integrity .....Bet with Gural !
TKs Skipper
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2013, 02:23:43 PM »

After takter ripped muscle mountain last week also from an outside post....makes this race very tough to wager. Obviously can't ignore this horse as he's much best but can't accept a short price cause who knows what takers intentions will be. This race is a great example of what's wrong with harness racing
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MR.DALRAE
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2013, 02:44:00 PM »

VERY ASTUTE SKIPPER,,,,,,THE JT TROTTER WILL BE 2/5 TONIGHT
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king151
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2013, 02:50:20 PM »

After takter ripped muscle mountain last week also from an outside post....makes this race very tough to wager. Obviously can't ignore this horse as he's much best but can't accept a short price cause who knows what takers intentions will be. This race is a great example of what's wrong with harness racing



Tk, I hope you didnt bet on Muscle Mountain . If you looked you see he never left a first 1/4 faster than 29 flat . Making his first start of the year from the 10 hole was a recipe for a trip from the back of the pack . And I would think that any serious gambler would see that coming from a mile away . Also if your a serious gambler it was an oportunity to toss a 3/1 shot .
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2013, 03:17:28 PM »



Tk, I hope you didnt bet on Muscle Mountain . If you looked you see he never left a first 1/4 faster than 29 flat . Making his first start of the year from the 10 hole was a recipe for a trip from the back of the pack . And I would GUthink that any serious gambler would see that coming from a mile away . Also if your a serious gambler it was an oportunity to toss a 3/1 shot .

If you really want to know, as soon as I saw the driver change from gingras I knew a non effort was coming but I didn't bet the race. I'll bet you 19,000,000 pesos that had takter wanted to, the horse could have easily left out of there last week and won by a hundred...if he had so chosen.
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Hawk
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2013, 03:48:03 PM »

Nobody likes to win more than Yimmy....His ego would not let him stiff....just how the race set up....10 hole 1st start of the year & slow 1/2 & zero flow....he's not going to gut the horse 1st out....but he loves to win
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2013, 04:37:04 PM »

Nobody likes to win more than Yimmy....His ego would not let him stiff....just how the race set up....10 hole 1st start of the year & slow 1/2 & zero flow....he's not going to gut the horse 1st out....but he loves to win

He loves to win but won't "gut" one the first time out. That makes for incredibly tough handicapping, no?
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king151
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2013, 04:54:44 PM »

He loves to win but won't "gut" one the first time out. That makes for incredibly tough handicapping, no?


NO I actually think it makes for easier handicapping . If you know that about Jimmy going in and see a horse who has shown zero gate speed from the 10 hole.  I would think he could be an easy toss at 3/1.
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2013, 05:09:00 PM »


NO I actually think it makes for easier handicapping . If you know that about Jimmy going in and see a horse who has shown zero gate speed from the 10 hole.  I would think he could be an easy toss at 3/1.

I don't have the lines in front of me but I'm 99% sure the horse has left the gate in the past.

Now, how about you you tell us what's going to happen to this particular horse tomorrow night, since its so easy. He drew the 9 hole and shows limited game speed. Can you tell us this time what is going to happen BEFORE the race? I assume you are telling us this horse is an easy toss? Is that correct?
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king151
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2013, 05:25:44 PM »

I don't have the lines in front of me but I'm 99% sure the horse has left the gate in the past.

Now, how about you you tell us what's going to happen to this particular horse tomorrow night, since its so easy. He drew the 9 hole and shows limited game speed. Can you tell us this time what is going to happen BEFORE the race? I assume you are telling us this horse is an easy toss? Is that correct?


Yes I can . As for Muscle Mountain he showed leaving the gate one time last year 29 flat .
As for Source of Pride . He left the gate one time in his 2yo carear and that was in a baby race . He made 1 break in his 3 baby races . He made breaks in 2 of his 3 parimutual starts and has the outside in his 3yo debut. I dont have a program and cant handicap the rest of the field but I would highly doubt he will be blasting from the gate . Not saying he cant reach from the back of the pack as he shows closing 27 and change both of his qualifiers and shows 26.1 closing as a 2yo . Also of note the lone start he didnt make a break as a 2yo he was ducked from the gate and came 2nd over to win .
Is that a good enough analysis for you TK . Good Luck .
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2013, 05:37:09 PM »

Its analysis, without any conviction. It pretty much echoes my point that we as gamblers really have no idea if takter will try...or not... with the best horse. Unless we have inside info that is.
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king151
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2013, 05:55:40 PM »

Its analysis, without any conviction. It pretty much echoes my point that we as gamblers really have no idea if takter will try...or not... with the best horse. Unless we have inside info that is.


Its not without conviction . If you think its a field he can run down late then fire away .But If your going to be upset he dosnt leave with him and dosnt reach you have no one to blame . He dosnt show leaving , so why would you think he would leave now in his first start of the year ?  Also he had trouble making breaks as a 2yo , so if you have trouble handicapping this race ,shame on you . Dont blame the trainer .
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2013, 06:10:11 PM »

I am blaming the judges! Not the trainer. Trainers have been allowed to get away with easy miles for ever, why wouldn't they...there are no repercussions. The gamblers suffer. We are entitled to wager on races where everyone tries to win 100%, 100% of the time. If you want to race easy, qualify until you are ready to win.

This particular race tomorrow night is a very important race to the gamblers. Its race 5. Its part of a p5, a p4, and 2 p3s. And we get saddled with a situation where the best horse by far may, or may not try to win the race.

We CANNOT safely assume that this horse is going to drop back to last and use it as a total no go. Why? Because we know takters history...he will sometimes put his horses across in first start back when they are best, leaving the gate. Other times, he will not.

But I know...the gamblers don't matter to trainers like yourself, its all about the horse. We have to figure out when you will try and when you wont
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king151
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2013, 06:16:18 PM »

I am blaming the judges! Not the trainer. Trainers have been allowed to get away with easy miles for ever, why wouldn't they...there are no repercussions. The gamblers suffer. We are entitled to wager on races where everyone tries to win 100%, 100% of the time. If you want to race easy, qualify until you are ready to win.

This particular race tomorrow night is a very important race to the gamblers. Its race 5. Its part of a p5, a p4, and 2 p3s. And we get saddled with a situation where the best horse by far may, or may not try to win the race.

We CANNOT safely assume that this horse is going to drop back to last and use it as a total no go. Why? Because we know takters history...he will sometimes put his horses across in first start back when they are best, leaving the gate. Other times, he will not.

But I know...the gamblers don't matter to trainers like yourself, its all about the horse. We have to figure out when you will try and when you wont




Why would you would assume he would leave with this perticular horse ? I dont know how clear it could be for you . He never left in  a Pm start and has a history of making breaks .......Seems easy to figure ...... What says he cant win if he races from behind , Im done with this topic . You jsut want someone to blame no matter the outcome of the race . Good LUck TK.
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2013, 06:22:06 PM »

Ever hear of leaving for position? Even with the no holes rule its still done in almost every race. Would it be absurd if the horse left and got away 5th and blew the field away 1st or 2nd over? I would say that's not an absurd notion. Its been done to death. By takter, in this exact situation, many times. Not surprising a trainer ducks out of this particular subject, its criminal behavior but hey, there never any prosecution so carry on
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king151
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2013, 06:26:10 PM »

Ever hear of leaving for position? Even with the no holes rule its still done in almost every race. Would it be absurd if the horse left and got away 5th and blew the field away 1st or 2nd over? I would say that's not an absurd notion. Its been done to death. By takter, in this exact situation, many times. Not surprising a trainer ducks out of this particular subject, its criminal behavior but hey, there never any prosecution so carry on


Just a side note to the topic . I trained horses for a very big gambler at the Mlds . He would handle 50-75 a night at Mlds on the weekends . His theory to a horse like this was simple . Use him in the Pk 3 Pk4 etc but dont single him and use him heavy underneath in his gimmicks in that race .
 
And theres nothing criminal if he ducks the horse . What dont you get , the horse has made breaks in 2 of 3 lifetime starts.
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2013, 06:31:36 PM »

If he ducks a horse who is a hundred the best just because of bad post in first race of the year, that's criminal

I understand what the bettor you mention does, but as an aside to your aside, the bigger the bettor is no direct correlation to the better the bettor
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king151
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2013, 06:37:32 PM »

If he ducks a horse who is a hundred the best just because of bad post in first race of the year, that's criminal

I understand what the bettor you mention does, but as an aside to your aside, the bigger the bettor is no direct correlation to the better the bettor



TK , the horse makes breaks 2 out of 3 lifetime starts . does this have any impact on leaving with the horse .
And the gambler I mentioned was VERY GOOD . He was one of the guys who knew how much he could gamble into a pool and where the value was . I know that may not mean much to most but it was a basis for his gambling . He was great at watching a race and knowing who the bet back horses were . he knew how much to bet on track and how much to bet offshore . He was as sharp as Ive seen in 30 plus years in the business .
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2013, 06:42:16 PM »

Basically no impact. Why? Because the horse should be qualified until the horse can be raced in a way that he can be raced with full intention to win. If you are concerned with breaking, qualify until there is no more concern
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king151
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2013, 06:49:07 PM »

Basically no impact. Why? Because the horse should be qualified until the horse can be raced in a way that he can be raced with full intention to win. If you are concerned with breaking, qualify until there is no more concern


Rediculus statement . Tons of horses dont ever show good gate speed and need to be settled into a race and work there way into a race .
And if you dont figure the breaking instances into your handicapping you have no one to blame but yourself . Also if you dont take into account that this is a 280k yearling and will be brought along carefully shame on you .Just because you want him to leave the gate dosnt make it right .
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2013, 07:02:44 PM »

Of course I factor it into my handicapping. The game is flawed in this respect. And of course I'm aware the horse may be brought along carefully...there's never any repercussions for not doing so. That's my entire point. It should not be this way. Qualify the horse over and over and over until the horse is ready for his best effort. This careful handling should not be at the expense of the bettors. But it is and its wrong
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« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2013, 10:08:19 PM »

Of course I factor it into my handicapping. The game is flawed in this respect. And of course I'm aware the horse may be brought along carefully...there's never any repercussions for not doing so. That's my entire point. It should not be this way. Qualify the horse over and over and over until the horse is ready for his best effort. This careful handling should not be at the expense of the bettors. But it is and its wrong

why bother running any races in the heat ? or the cold ? why run any races when the wind is to strong in one direction or the other ? why run any races in the rain ? some horses dislike one or the other.
why aren't are racing surfaces the same ?
why are most harness races run at night ?

why are they not all run under perfect conditions for the fans ?
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« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2013, 10:53:19 PM »

Yeah the gamblers are inconsequential anyway, we are just here to annoy horseman with our requests for honest racing
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« Reply #24 on: April 20, 2013, 07:51:24 PM »

What a monster! Really looks great, no signs of being rough gaited, wow!
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