Chicago Barn to Wire
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


December 19, 2014, 07:35:25 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: 1 [2]  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Spiral Stakes  (Read 1092 times)
Mick
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1151




Ignore
« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2013, 01:28:40 PM »

 The first time I heard about poly, the word was that speed would die and maybe that was initially true.  Of late, when I have had the chance to bet I'd say that I no longer consider polytrack bias automatically favoring stretch runners.
Seldom do I quote myself but after reading Brian and Terry's comments about poly, I recalled having this thought.   Did the races change with poly, has poly changed with time or have the horses changed with poly?   What I mean is this, has whatever caused poly to be unfriendly to front runners early in the game changed?   Have the condoms broken down with regular hooves beating down on them and has that now been more friendly to front runners?  Have the tracks themselves recognized and regulated changes to make racing more fair (someone slap me for suggesting this as a viable option).   Or have the front running horses now become more acclimated to running on retreads?

I distinctly remember a bias towards stretch runners on poly and something seemingly changed that equation.
Report to moderator   Logged

I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
CLOCKERbiggestal
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1471




Ignore
« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2013, 01:33:32 PM »



As far as your throwing out #3 Uncaptured using this methodology: WHAT???

what was his best race in his career up til now? He is a graded stakes winner on dirt. His only graded synthetic race was a mid pack 5th as the chalkie. I understand that he ran some decent races on synthetic, I think he's better on dirt than synthetics. If he beats me as chalkie. oh well what can you do?

 clocker biggestal
Report to moderator   Logged

Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
brianwspencer
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1700




Ignore
« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2013, 01:38:48 PM »

Seldom do I quote myself but after reading Brian and Terry's comments about poly, I recalled having this thought.   Did the races change with poly, has poly changed with time or have the horses changed with poly?   What I mean is this, has whatever caused poly to be unfriendly to front runners early in the game changed?   Have the condoms broken down with regular hooves beating down on them and has that now been more friendly to front runners?  Have the tracks themselves recognized and regulated changes to make racing more fair (someone slap me for suggesting this as a viable option).   Or have the front running horses now become more acclimated to running on retreads?

I distinctly remember a bias towards stretch runners on poly and something seemingly changed that equation.


That's an interesting question. I don't think I even have a really well-thought out answer, but my gut instinct is to guess that there is something a little different being done with the surfaces themselves (just a guess). Maybe the maintenance of those surfaces was a new kind of mystery and with time and experience came the ability to help create a more even racing surface?

I say that's my gut instinct because I found it tough to believe that horses with :45.4 speed who could set that pace and find plenty on the dirt all of the sudden found themselves totally empty and struggling to split the field and after setting completely unpressured :47 half miles on the Poly.

That's one opinion. The other that was pretty prevalent was that the synthetic surfaces were simply more demanding and made short work out of horses who weren't 100% fit. That'd be something that a trainer might be able to shed more light on -- is the regimen leading up to a race any different when you're pointing for Poly than when you're pointing for dirt? Or was it when the surfaces first came into play?

Lots of food for thought...and maybe not any really good answers, but plenty of chances for guessing!
Report to moderator   Logged
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #28 on: March 23, 2013, 01:53:58 PM »

Or was it when the surfaces first came into play?

I think there were a lot of conclusions jumped to when synthetic tracks first came in and the old dirt biases were suddenly no longer in play, such as the overnight disappearance of golden rail speed at Keeneland and so on. Bob Baffert could no longer train his horses to gun to the front at Santa Anita and have them win by default. The fake tracks suddenly made the game fairer for ALL types of runners, and it was a shock.

Nowadays the crowd does a fine job of identifying the logical contenders on the fake tracks as well as the slightly less fake groomed dirt tracks. We've covered those numbers before. So it was just a matter of re-adjusting the mindset from automatically going with the blasting speed.
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4528




Ignore
« Reply #29 on: March 23, 2013, 02:15:22 PM »

what was his best race in his career up til now? He is a graded stakes winner on dirt. His only graded synthetic race was a mid pack 5th as the chalkie.

AYFKM? His only LOSS was that race! And after 3 straight top efforts, a bounce was pretty likely.

Seriously, dude -- do you even look at the pp's for a race before making your picks?  doh

I understand that he ran some decent races on synthetic, I think he's better on dirt than synthetics. If he beats me as chalkie. oh well what can you do?

He has 4 wins in 5 starts and $339K+ in earnings on synthetics, and...it is your understanding he "ran some decent races" on the stuff?

Al, seriously -- I'd like you to become the Global Spokesperson for Synthetic Tracks...because if you can't fathom that Uncaptured is not only a top contender in The Spiral today, he's also one of the BEST synthetic surface runners in this years 3 year old class, then synthetic tracks won't be around much past the end of next week with you doing their bidding.

(If you are throwing him out simply because he is a potential "chalkie", that is equally "not too smart" -- my fellow TG'ers are constantly throwing out perfectly logical contenders simply because they are the chalk, and that is just flat stupid -- but this is a different mentality from your initial assessment of Uncaptured "not having performed well" on synthetics; he has three times more earnings on synthetics than the next nearest Spiral entrant, for chris'sakes!)
Report to moderator   Logged
Ed
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1025




Ignore
« Reply #30 on: March 23, 2013, 02:19:19 PM »

I think there were a lot of conclusions jumped to when synthetic tracks first came in and the old dirt biases were suddenly no longer in play, such as the overnight disappearance of golden rail speed at Keeneland and so on.

The KEE track was reconfigured when the poly was installed. This had as much, or more, to do with the elimination of the rail/speed bias.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERbiggestal
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1471




Ignore
« Reply #31 on: March 23, 2013, 02:28:59 PM »

AYFKM? His only LOSS was that race! And after 3 straight top efforts, a bounce was pretty likely.

I don't believe that his loss was the bounce theory, moreover it was his first route race. he was one paced. then 21 days later he wins going long on dirt in similar company than 27 days later he won again. if he bounced after the 28 days rest why didn't he bounce after 21 days rest and the travel to Kentucky.

His best race was on dirt.

its not that I don't read the PP's I interpert them differently than you.

you like the big number synthetic sprint races. I don't.

 clocker biggestal
Report to moderator   Logged

Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #32 on: March 23, 2013, 03:23:27 PM »

Well hey now, if I'm not mistaken, weren't those 1-2 finishers there in the 9th up at the front pretty much the whole way around? What the heck happened to chucking it?
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #33 on: March 23, 2013, 03:55:39 PM »

Little speed in this race should help the likes of Capo Bastone. We'll see.
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #34 on: March 23, 2013, 03:56:53 PM »

Little speed in this race should help the likes of Capo Bastone. We'll see.

And of course he gets a crap start. Sad
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #35 on: March 23, 2013, 03:58:58 PM »

I like Black Onyx in here. He has a good late kick for the end and I liked the way he closed in the most recent start. I think you're gonna get a nice price on this one.

Nice call j-stuff.

The rest of us should have just shut up after your post.
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
STIVO
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 498




Ignore
« Reply #36 on: March 23, 2013, 04:18:07 PM »

$50 WPS and keyed in the Dime Super for $2300. Cha-Ching!!!
Report to moderator   Logged
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #37 on: March 23, 2013, 06:21:50 PM »

$50 WPS and keyed in the Dime Super for $2300. Cha-Ching!!!

Nice job Steve.
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
thoroughbred
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 969




Ignore
« Reply #38 on: March 23, 2013, 06:26:07 PM »

$50 WPS and keyed in the Dime Super for $2300. Cha-Ching!!!

Game day bucket go BOOM!!!
Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4528




Ignore
« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2013, 07:28:57 PM »

its not that I don't read the PP's I interpert them differently than you.

you like the big number synthetic sprint races. I don't.

Uh huh.

Al, how do you interpret 4 wins in 5 starts for $339K in earnings (ahem, *before* today's race  Wink ) on synthetic surfaces...for an average earnings per start of ~$68K?

You think MAYBE such a horse might be running very well on the surface, and that MAYBE you should give him some consideration?

Or do you "interpret" all that hard cash differently from me, too?

doh
Report to moderator   Logged
STIVO
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 498




Ignore
« Reply #40 on: March 23, 2013, 07:38:22 PM »

I haven't seen any post race comments but are they going to supplement?
Report to moderator   Logged
STIVO
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 498




Ignore
« Reply #41 on: March 23, 2013, 07:46:18 PM »

I haven't seen any post race comments but are they going to supplement?

Looks like they paid the $6000 after the race and they may "train to the Derby." Very interesting. BTW, he got a 91 BSF for the victory.
Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4528




Ignore
« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2013, 07:48:05 PM »

$50 WPS and keyed in the Dime Super for $2300. Cha-Ching!!!

No Super here (hardly ever play them), but a heaping helping of Win and Ex for me.

What a great call j-stuff and Steve! Hope you both have knots in your legs where the pockets full of money is resting. (I know Steve fired big on this one.)

And "BiggestAl"? Back to Handicapping 101 for you, pal: worst reasoning for throwing out the 2nd place horse I've seen in...hell, I don't think I've ever seen worse.

Finally: the early speed horse here, Mac The Man, apparently completely compromised by the Polytrack surface after leading for a half, was eased and Did Not Finish. We can only hope that he can be restored to complete health after what will possibly be a long period of convalescence.
Report to moderator   Logged
STIVO
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 498




Ignore
« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2013, 08:08:35 PM »

I never play $1 Supers but I like the dime play. I'm glad I hit on this horse as my selection at SA in the Toyko ran like crapola!
Report to moderator   Logged
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2013, 08:57:35 PM »

Finally: the early speed horse here, Mac The Man, apparently completely compromised by the Polytrack surface after leading for a half, was eased and Did Not Finish. We can only hope that he can be restored to complete health after what will possibly be a long period of convalescence.

Absolutely brilliant diagnosis from hundreds of miles away via TV screen, Dr. Horse Voice. "Yes nurse, I'm sorry to say, it was the poly."

doh

Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
STIVO
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 498




Ignore
« Reply #45 on: March 23, 2013, 09:14:27 PM »

I also had a very sizable wager on this horse for the Triple Crown Contest!!  trophy
Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4528




Ignore
« Reply #46 on: March 23, 2013, 09:44:41 PM »

Absolutely brilliant diagnosis from hundreds of miles away via TV screen, Dr. Horse Voice. "Yes nurse, I'm sorry to say, it was the poly."

doh



Man, are you the BITIN'EST fish in here today, or what?  Grin
Report to moderator   Logged
journalstuff
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2744




Ignore
« Reply #47 on: March 23, 2013, 10:04:52 PM »

Nice call j-stuff.

The rest of us should have just shut up after your post.

Thank you. 15-1
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERbiggestal
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1471




Ignore
« Reply #48 on: March 24, 2013, 05:28:23 AM »

Uh huh.

Al, how do you interpret 4 wins in 5 starts for $339K in earnings (ahem, *before* today's race  Wink ) on synthetic surfaces...for an average earnings per start of ~$68K?

You think MAYBE such a horse might be running very well on the surface, and that MAYBE you should give him some consideration?

Or do you "interpret" all that hard cash differently from me, too?

doh


My horse ran a one paced third at 23-1 (rats) and got beat, Thats racing. missed it.
congrats to those who cashed it wasn't me.  head shake great pick j and all who had Black Onyx.

 clocker biggestal

Report to moderator   Logged

Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 13151

silver-tongued track bum




Ignore
« Reply #49 on: March 28, 2013, 01:45:21 PM »

Nice wager in the Derby List contest too, Steve.
Report to moderator   Logged

He's literate and funny.  I can see why he angers you so.
Pages: 1 [2]  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.15 seconds with 17 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Breeders' Cup
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy