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Author Topic: Spiral Stakes  (Read 1077 times)
journalstuff
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« on: March 22, 2013, 04:01:21 PM »

I like Black Onyx in here. He has a good late kick for the end and I liked the way he closed in the most recent start. I think you're gonna get a nice price on this one.
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2013, 10:19:28 PM »

I bet this horse big in his last as I'm a fan of RHT first turfers. I also picked him on publichandicapper.com. He looks great in this spot.
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2013, 05:07:57 AM »

You guys have locked in on a nice one here.

I'm not the biggest Joe Bravo fan in world, but he does ride the hair off of them for Kelly Breen; you will get maximum effort for your wager with this combo.

I'm stuck on #5 My Name Is Michael. I love the way this horse is developing -- came off several layoffs running just as good or better than last race, a strong sign of solid, sustained growth and increased ability -- and Bill Mott doesn't ship in to Turfway so he can go to Skyline for a 5-way (dry, lite onions please) and a couple of Coney's.  Wink



Edit: Just looked on PH and noticed you picked My Name Is Michael 2nd, Steve...and if you don't mind I'll disclose that your third pick is the Lukas horse, #2 Channel Isle.

My point in posting this is that you have three extremely live horses here, and I don't want to hear no nonsense from you or anybody that missed the $200+ ex and $1500 tri if these three all run -- *I'm* having these horses. Get some.
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2013, 08:10:19 AM »

Are there no steeds who have a "good late kick" for the beginning? Huh
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2013, 08:31:17 AM »

Are there no steeds who have a "good late kick" for the beginning? Huh

Sure there are...but you don't want to count on these being around at the end of a race on poly, do you?

 dunno
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2013, 08:56:22 AM »

I thought your pal Terry said there was no speed/inside bias on the polycondom tracks.  Huh
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2013, 09:25:26 AM »

I thought your pal Terry said there was no speed/inside bias on the polycondom tracks.  Huh

Yes...that's why the horses with brilliant natural speed tend to chuck it after about 2/3 of race (usually).
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2013, 09:30:06 AM »

Sure there are...but you don't want to count on these being around at the end of a race on poly, do you?

 dunno

Interestingly enough, according to the BRIS Track Stats for Kentucky, Turfway has a notably higher "% wire" in routes than Churchill, as well as a higher "speed bias" % for all route distances but 1-1/8, where it is 33% vs CD's 39%. The stats kind of put the boots to the myth of TP's poly being unkind to front-runners.    
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2013, 09:31:39 AM »

Yes...that's why the horses with brilliant natural speed tend to chuck it after about 2/3 of race (usually).

On some poly track somewhere, maybe, but not TP.
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2013, 09:52:46 AM »

Kind of chalky, but I like the 1 horse here.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2013, 09:55:53 AM »

I want a horse with whose best races were on synthetic surfaces

that eliminates:

1 Balance the Books
2 Channel Isle
3 Uncaptured
4 Fear the Kitten
9 Black Onyx
11 taken By Storm
12 Capo Bastone

if any of those 7 win I will lose

5 My Name is Michael--Grinder has little early speed and is dependent on a favorable pace set up; he might get one, but hard to use on top
Under in all exotics

6 For Greater Glory--Ran out of steam when rallying in prep race for this; has to be closer and is also pace dependent

7 Mac The Man--what has this horse done wrong at Turfway. He can lead or he can sit close if someone else wants the lead.

8 General Election--got the perfect trip last out and won. gonna need a similar trip
in here if he is to win.

10 Giant Finish--ran a monsterous race last out. 2 and 3 wide thoughtout was the only pace horse that was there at the finish.

Giant Finsh is my horse. Dutrow has a good one here. a similar run puts him right there. Win and exactas over and under with some of the other horses whose best races are on synthetics.



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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2013, 10:41:19 AM »

Interestingly enough, according to the BRIS Track Stats for Kentucky, Turfway has a notably higher "% wire" in routes than Churchill, as well as a higher "speed bias" % for all route distances but 1-1/8, where it is 33% vs CD's 39%. The stats kind of put the boots to the myth of TP's poly being unkind to front-runners.    

Not enough info in one "all-encompassing" stat like that.

In the cheaper races -- which Turfway runs by the cartload -- there is likely to be a couple of relatively fit horses, along with a whole bunch of lesser lights that may or may not be able to finish the race course. Races like these tend to screw up the stats.

Today's card gives us a good opportunity to see this phenomenon in action (if I am right, that is  crossedfingers ):

* the first 4 races are cheapies, and I expect some wire jobs there

* races 8, 9, and 10 are fairly well-balanced races, and I doubt we will see any horse wire any of these stakes fields

Yes..."small sample", and all that, but...the stakes races are the only ones worth really analyzing and watching, IMO, unless you need to bone up on the cheaper races for the upcoming seasons at River Downs and Beulah.

(Let 'em wire 100 straight mcl5000's at Turfway on the poly: who cares? Means nothing of consequence to racing in general, besides providing more below-average runners to fill more below-average clm5000n2l's. All *yours*, poly lovers!)
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« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2013, 11:01:37 AM »

I want a horse with whose best races were on synthetic surfaces

that eliminates:

1 Balance the Books
2 Channel Isle
3 Uncaptured
4 Fear the Kitten
9 Black Onyx
11 taken By Storm
12 Capo Bastone

if any of those 7 win I will lose

Quite an egregious hole in your handicapping here, Al.

There is a GIANT difference between throwing out horses who clearly don't run their best races on a given surface...and mechanically throwing out horses that have little or no experience on that surface.

You are doing the LATTER with no less than SIX of the 7 horses you are throwing out; I wonder, would you *automatically* throw out a son or daughter of Dynaformer or Lemon Drop Kid or War Front, simply because they were trying turf for only the 2nd or 3rd time in their career? (Somehow, I doubt it.)

As far as your throwing out #3 Uncaptured using this methodology: WHAT???
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2013, 11:13:54 AM »

Not enough info in one "all-encompassing" stat like that.

Sure there is. It covers 439 dirt routes in 2011.

Quote
In the cheaper races -- which Turfway runs by the cartload -- there is likely to be a couple of relatively fit horses, along with a whole bunch of lesser lights that may or may not be able to finish the race course. Races like these tend to screw up the stats.

Today's card gives us a good opportunity to see this phenomenon in action (if I am right, that is  crossedfingers ):

* the first 4 races are cheapies, and I expect some wire jobs there

That sounds suspiciously like what happens in every card at every track everywhere, dirt or poly. And incidentally, the issue here it ROUTES, not sprints, al la races 3 & 4.

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* races 8, 9, and 10 are fairly well-balanced races, and I doubt we will see any horse wire any of these stakes fields

Balanced or not, races 8, 9, 10 are also very large fields, where we would expect no horse to get an easy lead/fractions and wire, no matter what track it is at.

Quote
Yes..."small sample", and all that, but...the stakes races are the only ones worth really analyzing and watching, IMO, unless you need to bone up on the cheaper races for the upcoming seasons at River Downs and Beulah.

Your original statement had nothing to do with "the only races worth watching", you simply said " the horses with brilliant natural speed tend to chuck it after about 2/3 of race (usually)." So now, we're limiting that to "well-balanced races with good quality horses (and big fields)"?

Well, yeah, and I'd opine that in those scenarios everywhere the early speed horses usually "chuck it". Prove me wrong.
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« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2013, 11:29:05 AM »

Sure there is. It covers 439 dirt routes in 2011.

It's useless because it isn't broken out by class. That's what I meant.

Balanced or not, races 8, 9, 10 are also very large fields, where we would expect no horse to get an easy lead/fractions and wire, no matter what track it is at.

Disagree. I've watched enough Turfway races to know that they get plenty of cheaper races featuring 1 or 2 capable horses, and 10 sluggo types; there is no reason to dick around if you are one of the capable horses -- you go to the front.

Your original statement had nothing to do with "the only races worth watching", you simply said " the horses with brilliant natural speed tend to chuck it after about 2/3 of race (usually)." So now, we're limiting that to "well-balanced races with good quality horses (and big fields)"?

LOL. Well-balanced races with good quality horses are the only races worth watching, IMO. Glad you caught up.

It also so happens that these are the kind of races where if a horse with brilliant early speed takes off, the polytrack will (needlessly) tire him out and kill his chances.

Mcl5000 races typically don't have any horses with any sort of "brilliance" of any kind: they are the bottom rung of the racing hierarchy. (*This* is why we have polytrack? *These* are the horses we are protecting? Genius!  screwy)

Well, yeah, and I'd opine that in those scenarios everywhere the early speed horses usually "chuck it". Prove me wrong.

Sure. Watch Hawthorne every day.  Grin
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« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2013, 11:56:24 AM »

* races 8, 9, and 10 are fairly well-balanced races, and I doubt we will see any horse wire any of these stakes fields
It depends upon what one means by well balanced.   If you mean an average number of speed horses or stalkers who are relatively in the same zip code for class, I'd agree with you.   I'd say pace has a larger determining factor to when wire jobs occur, more so than class of horse (within class context mind you).


Track bias is certainly a major factor.   I haven't had enough time to study poly versus dirt or one track versus another.   The first time I heard about poly, the word was that speed would die and maybe that was initially true.  Of late, when I have had the chance to bet I'd say that I no longer consider polytrack bias automatically favoring stretch runners.

When there is a lot of evenly speed in either a cheap or classy race I bet horses who come off the pace.   One classy speed horse can destroy and wire a group of cheaper speed horses and run home for fun in a win.   One classy speed horse can wire a field of off the pace horses, if no one goes out after him and he's allowed to run at a slow pace.     

As such, I am playing Mac the man.
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« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2013, 12:06:35 PM »

It's useless because it isn't broken out by class. That's what I meant.

Your original claim made no distinction about class. Neither do the Churchill stats take class into account.

Quote
Disagree. I've watched enough Turfway races to know that they get plenty of cheaper races featuring 1 or 2 capable horses, and 10 sluggo types; there is no reason to dick around if you are one of the capable horses -- you go to the front.

That's what happens at every track, everywhere.

Quote
LOL. Well-balanced races with good quality horses are the only races worth watching, IMO. Glad you caught up.

So now your claim about "chucking it" applies only to the "good quality horses" races, which by your own admission above are not broken out in the stats, so there's no statistical way to support your claim, one way or the other. In other words, the usual, HV's opinion and nothing else.

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It also so happens that these are the kind of races where if a horse with brilliant early speed takes off, the polytrack will (needlessly) tire him out and kill his chances.

Offer some proof it is the polytrack, rather than simply normal pace pressure of large fields. The overall stats of all TP races say your claim is in error. The overall stats of Churchill say it is even less kind to speed horses, and they run all sorts there, too ... including MORE good dirt horses that shouldn't be "needlessly tired", win up front, and pump up CD's numbers ... if your claim had any truth to it, that is.

Here's some interesting items from this Spring's Triple Crown races so far, all "quality horses" I think we'd agree, mostly balanced, and "worth watching":

Rebel Stakes, OP, 11 horses, DIRT - Won from well off the pace, early leader Carve "chucked it"
TB Derby, Tam, 9 horses, DIRT - Won by an EP laying 2nd, early leader Falling Sky "chucked it"
San Felipe, SA, 8 horses, DIRT - won by a presser, early leaders Salutos Amigos and Goldencents "chucked it"
Battaglia, TP, 12 horses, POLY - won from way off the pace, early leaders "chucked it"
Gotham, Aqu, 11 horses, DIRT - won from way off the pace, early leader finished 2nd
Swale, GP, 12 horses, DIRT - won from well off the pace, early (longshot) leaders "chucked it"
FOY, GP, 9 horses, DIRT - won from well off the pace, early leader "chucked it", big fave EP 2nd runner finished 2nd
Risen Star, FG, 12 horses, DIRT - won from well off the pace, early leader "chucked it", 2nd runner finished 2nd
Southwest, OP, 10 horses, DIRT - the 1/1 favorite wired it (uncompetitive race?)
San Vicente, SA, 6 horses, DIRT - early leaders "chucked it", won by a presser
El Camino, GG, 9 horses, TAPETA - won from well off the pace, early leaders "chucked it", badly
RB Lewis, SA, 4 horses, DIRT - wire job by 0.5/1 favorite in a lousy 4 horse field on slow fractions - uncompetitive
Sam Davis, Tam, 9 horses, DIRT - wire job, early 2nd "chucked it"
Withers, Aqu, 8 horses, DIRT - big fave won from well off the pace, early leader "chucked it" and 2nd finished 2nd - very pokey fractions
Smarty Jones, OP, 9 horses, DIRT - won from off the pace, early leader "chucked it" and 2nd finished 2nd

So, to what do you attribute all these instances of the early sped horses "chucking" it in so many high class competitive DIRT races?
 
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« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2013, 12:26:59 PM »

Swale, GP, 12 horses, DIRT - won from well off the pace, early (longshot) leaders "chucked it"
I'm glad you mentioned these races because Swale is the poster child of pace.   How can a horse like him, son of Seattle Slew, trained by Woody Stephens, win the Belmont stakes after losing the Preakness and running seventh.  Pace in a word is the factor you can point to.   There was no speed in that Belmont and all those, including myself, who overlooked a 7th place Preakness finish lost their win bets in the Belmont.

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« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2013, 12:44:22 PM »

Speed dominates the Belmont Stakes.
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« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2013, 12:53:07 PM »

Speed dominates the Belmont Stakes.
Pace dominates the Belmont Stakes.
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« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2013, 01:04:10 PM »

So, to what do you attribute all these instances of the early sped horses "chucking" it in so many high class competitive DIRT races?

Easy -- they were probably all still ass-sore from some prior effort on POLY.  Cheesy

That stuff sucks, I'm tellin' ya.
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« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2013, 01:06:17 PM »

I like Black Onyx in here. He has a good late kick for the end and I liked the way he closed in the most recent start. I think you're gonna get a nice price on this one.

Right there with you, JS. Big fan of this one.

Originally got this horse on my radar early because he's a half to Francois, a nice, versatile local type that runs on anything.

Add in Rock Hard Ten on top, and this guy strikes me as a big, lumbering type that needs some time to really get moving. He was kind of one-paced late in his last run, but it was the right kind of one-paced -- he just ground them down in the stretch.

First thing I did afterwards is email a friend and say I couldn't wait until this horse went longer -- 9f, even 10f. Maybe it'll be different on the Poly, but so far he hasn't shown a big turn of foot, but he has also shown a nice ability to just keep going. And maybe at 9f on the Poly, that'll be all it takes.

Good luck to everyone today!

*and just for what it's worth in the two cents department, Turfway's Poly has always played a bit more speed friendly than many other synthetic surfaces to me. YMMV.
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« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2013, 01:06:53 PM »

Easy -- they were probably all still ass-sore from some prior effort on POLY.  Cheesy

No doubt. Big competitive fields and honest pace would have had nothing to do with it.
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« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2013, 01:08:30 PM »

*and just for what it's worth in the two cents department, Turfway's Poly has always played a bit more speed friendly than many other synthetic surfaces to me. YMMV.

Synthetic tracks are all different, just like dirt tracks are all different, and turf tracks are all different.
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« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2013, 01:18:08 PM »

Synthetic tracks are all different, just like dirt tracks are all different, and turf tracks are all different.

Of course.

Lots of people still talk about Keeneland's Polytrack as though it plays like it did when it was first installed, which is to say it was almost impossible to win on the front end. That's just not true anymore, and in fact, there have been many days the last three meets where that almost was the ONLY way to win there.

Santa Anita's Pro-Ride was very similar to early Keeneland Polytrack, in that it really disadvantaged frontrunners and tactical types -- they had next to no chance in most of the races the entire time it was in play there.

ETA: Long story short of that is that I personally think synthetics are just like any other different surface to handicap. Some play to certain styles, some play fairly. They can change in the middle of the day and can be very susceptible to changes in temperature. Just a factor among others.
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