CARTEL WAGERING

[Wink Martingale]

I don't care if YOU bet more money.  I do if the Parhams of the world are not only betting more money, but betting significant chunks of entire pools.  Do you understand the difference?  I suspect not, but others will.

[Psycho Dad]

I do if the Parhams of the world are not only betting more money, but betting significant chunks of entire pools. 

I do care -- and I thank them for it.  If they are using computer programs to make bets, it can only help we poor handicappers.

Similar thing happened in the first Monticello Raceway meet.  Back then, YR and RR were closed, and the only harness racing action was through OTB and OTB closed early.

Those of us at Monti saw tons of money bet poorly and benefitted greatly.  If you know anyone who was at that first Monti meet, ask him if he made money through the windows.    When he says "yes" he won't be lying.

[TrimTab]

A Parable: Being on the Inside

I knew when that horse would win, I knew when that horse wouldn't, sometimes I knew when that horse (2nd choice) would get parked and run the favorite to a walk and that other horse that just changed hands would win.

[Wink Martingale]

So, PD, you like that a guy who owns a bunch of good harness horses bet a majority chunk of a DD pool, and collected, at an exaggeratedly short price.  

That's about what I'd expect, considering the source.  Have a nice day.

[hungry]

Are you KIDDING?

Insider money was something like 80-90% of that DD pool, hence the dinky mutuel.  You think Parham is some Okie from Muskogee, and not the owner of a stable which has quality hosses racing all over the place? He bet over $4300 on that one DD combo, which, um,  came in.

Anyone who wants more insider money in the pools is nuts.

In the old days in NY, you had a fair amount of "dumb"/outsider money in the pools, such that Cool Hand Mike, lifetime ten-for-ten on off tracks in NY, was still allowed to go to the post at 9-2 in his last mud race, which of course he won. 

Put more "smart" money in the pools and that horse would pay $3.80... as would be roughly the case if this scenario arose today.

All this sort of thing does is discourage the part-time players, the casual fans, and the would-be fans. 

Parham is smart, right? Yes.

Betting a 4300 DD at Buffalo is dumb, right? Yes.

2 plus 2 is 4, right? Yes.

Use some logic, it was a silly mistake and a mistake that Dana later 'made good' for, even though he didnt have to..he 'seeded' one of the DD pools the next night or, something like that, to make up for the perception that there was funny business.

Stuff like this should ENCOURAGE the part time players, there have been plenty of 'mistake bets' that have lost, but we just want to focus on the one that happened to win? If Dana's horse loses the 2nd leg of this DD, the payouts are MASSIVE and everyone is happy...yet, nobody remembers....they only remember the one time the mistkake bet won.

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2011/03/mistaken-wagers-create-windfall-for.html

[Wink Martingale]

What part of "an insider took down the pool" don't you understand?

I remember being at YR when Stanley Banks shipped the ex-FFA Sterlings Hank in to some A-2 or A-3 race at Yonkers.  Got post 7 and was by no means an assured leaver. Money cascaded in very late, Sterlings Hank jetted to the front and kept on going from there, I think he paid $11 after dropping from 20-1 precipitously.  A lot of grumbling after the race to the effect that Banks took a pool home. Did it make a difference that other horses in the race were *theoretical* overlays?

[Psycho Dad]

So, PD, you like that a guy who owns a bunch of good harness horses bet a majority chunk of a DD pool, and collected, at an exaggeratedly short price.  

The double pool bet was a mistake, as was clearly documented.  But that is neither here not there.  What is here is that...

I love   betting against owners with inside information.  Its how I made a living for many years. 


Please encourage owners and trainers and drivers, too -- with their can't lose horses to bet a lot more money.

Thank you for our support.

It is just unfortunate that the current economic climate and lack of handle makes it so incredibly difficult to make harness racing wagering the sole source of one's income.  My hat's off to those few who can still do it.

[TrimTab]

The sickness when one convinces themselves how good they are. It keeps the game going and good for the few that have the means and inside edge.

[Illinois sucks]

If Odds On are throwing 350mln into pools a year I will argue it's not all going on his horses.  Sure he will spot play them if he knows something.  Dana, wants access to large pools knowing he will win some and lose some.  Over the course of the year however they will make money.  Getting the rebates however will offset operating cost having thirty employees.  Everyone here knows just a couple of harness tracks can handle a so called cartel most I'm sure are found in the flats.  Wink, you play Thoroughbreds do you find it difficult spotting a cartel in a million dollar handle race at Gulfstream?  Dana, is right about one thing, which would be hard for harness racing but having a seven race card with fourteen horses enter would generate a bigger handle with a fourteen race card with seven horse fields. 

[hungry]

What part of "an insider took down the pool" don't you understand?

I remember being at YR when Stanley Banks shipped the ex-FFA Sterlings Hank in to some A-2 or A-3 race at Yonkers.  Got post 7 and was by no means an assured leaver. Money cascaded in very late, Sterlings Hank jetted to the front and kept on going from there, I think he paid $11 after dropping from 20-1 precipitously.  A lot of grumbling after the race to the effect that Banks took a pool home. Did it make a difference that other horses in the race were *theoretical* overlays?

Its Buffalo, there are no 'sure winners' from the 'insiders' at that place. If those horses were sure winners, they would be racing in the FFA ranks at real racetracks.

If the guy had 'inside info' he still isnt betting a 4000 DD at Buffalo.

If this was an 'inside job' how come it doesnt happen more often? When's the last time Parham bet a 4,000 DD at Buffalo or some other crappy harness track? You would think that being such an insider he would have plenty more opportunities to punch 4k DDs at small  harness tracks....yet, this was the only one?

How cum?

[Wink Martingale]

Go handicap some jockeys, it's about all you're good for.  You don't understand anything, and I'm not wasting my time trying to explain information asymmetries to you.  Google it and write me a letter. 

[pigland1]

EVERY BETTOR IS A CARTEL!!!! WE ARE ALL JUST DIFFERENT SIZE BETTING CARTELS

[sulkyfromouterspace]

EVERY BETTOR IS A CARTEL!!!! WE ARE ALL JUST DIFFERENT SIZE BETTING CARTELS



PIGLAND....you down for a " Im in the New Meadowlands Betting cartel " Jacket? ( on the back)..    Pigland on the front?     what size?


Im pricing them ....






 
Sulky

[pigland1]

EVERY BETTOR IS A CARTEL!!!! WE ARE ALL JUST DIFFERENT SIZE BETTING CARTELS



PIGLAND....you down for a " Im in the New Meadowlands Betting cartel " Jacket? ( on the back)..    Pigland on the front?     what size?


Im pricing them ....






 
Sulky

[sulkyfromouterspace]

2133 Views.....   jus saying



 

[Wink Martingale]

Well, let's see how this here new Meadowlands with **big handles**, cough cough plays out in real-life terms:

4th-- JK Letitgo, 3rd favorite in the morning line, jogs at 4-5.

10th-- Spectator K, 8-1 ML, races on open lead wins by daylight, pays (wait for it...) 2-1 as favorite.  Exacta with 8/1 ML and 10-1 ML pays... $100.20

13th-- If I Didn't Care, 8-1 ML, jogs despite first-over trip, pays a whopping 6-5.  Exacta (8/1 ML and 7/2 ML second-fave) pays $21.60.

Were the morning lines bad?  The one in the 13th was questionable, but, still..

7 of 12 winning favorites.  Average mutuel under $6.50.

If anyone wants to applaud the handle of 3.2 mil, be my guest.  My two cents, it's the equivalent of banging the pans for one or another the Golden Receiver wins in fast time but miniscule odds against dinky fields.

The bell tolls for... ah well, you know the rest.  Or should. 

 

[sulkyfromouterspace]

Well, let's see how this here new Meadowlands with **big handles**, cough cough plays out in real-life terms:

4th-- JK Letitgo, 3rd favorite in the morning line, jogs at 4-5.

10th-- Spectator K, 8-1 ML, races on open lead wins by daylight, pays (wait for it...) 2-1 as favorite.  Exacta with 8/1 ML and 10-1 ML pays... $100.20

13th-- If I Didn't Care, 8-1 ML, jogs despite first-over trip, pays a whopping 6-5.  Exacta (8/1 ML and 7/2 ML second-fave) pays $21.60.

Were the morning lines bad?  The one in the 13th was questionable, but, still..

7 of 12 winning favorites.  Average mutuel under $6.50.

If anyone wants to applaud the handle of 3.2 mil, be my guest.  My two cents, it's the equivalent of banging the pans for one or another the Golden Receiver wins in fast time but miniscule odds against dinky fields.

The bell tolls for... ah well, you know the rest.  Or should.

[sulkyfromouterspace]

If anyone wants to applaud the handle of 3.2 mil, be my guest.










everyone knows sulky will applaud the NEW BIG M EVERYTIME !!!!






CHA CHING !!!!!!!!    CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP !!!!!    WTG Jeff Gural and Team !!!        intergrity brings them back EVERYTIME !!



GOD BLESS JEFF GURAL , WENDY , JASON, JOEY B , ROCKY HORROR..... 





 
SULKY

[burton]

One night of stats not a theory make.

Three months in and the people are speaking with their wagering dollars.
Every weekend $3MM handles. Increases over last year of 30-40% consistently.
All this despite the claims of Burke having too many horses entered and drugged.
Open windows.
Cartels influencing the oddss, getting deals, insiders getting betting deals.
Short fields due to other tracks opening (still early on that one but not a huge dent so far.Subpar horses and now drivers (this weekend)
These are just the facts so far......

[sulkyfromouterspace]

Don't forget Jeff is on safari !


When he gets back....He will be even MORE energized to improve the integrity at the New BIG M !!

Cheaters BEWARE !!   you're trunk WILL be opened !! 

     


  Be careful on Safari JEFF !!!   We need you !   






 
SULKY

[Wink Martingale]

Well, okay, Burton... a night of short-priced and thus presumably standout horses... hence, the board's handicappers, despite their admitted outsiderhood, should have picked the card clean, from win bets to pick-fives.  

Did they?  TK's Skipper, I note, was 1 for 1, tip o' the cap there. How'd everyone else's posted pix do?

[burton]

Well, okay, Burton... a night of short-priced and thus presumably standout horses... hence, the board's handicappers, despite their admitted outsiderhood, should have picked the card clean, from win bets to pick-fives.  

Did they?  TK's Skipper, I note, was 1 for 1, tip o' the cap there. How'd everyone else's posted pix do?

And that has what to do with the facts I posted?

[Wink Martingale]

Everything.

If the racing is so terrific and EVERYONE is betting and sharing in this largesse, why did so few people who posted here pick even a single winner, much less a correct exotic... this on a night when form presumably held up, as demonstrated by the notably short mutuels?

[Threeflight1]

Here is a facebook convo I had with Darin Z from the Big M.  Let me preface this by saying I think he is doing a great job there and is a credit to the sport.  This gives a view from both sides I believe.  This might be hard to read and for that I apologize.



Darin Zoccali
10 hours ago near East Rutherford, NJ ·

    Thanks to all our betting customers for giving us our 15th $3 Million Handle of the 2013 racing season. We really appreciate it!
    Like · · Unfollow Post · Share
        16 people like this.
        Garnet Barnsdale Nailed the late Pick 4 twice - happy to play The Big M!
        10 hours ago · Like
        Kyle Stasierowski Wow. That's amazing.
        10 hours ago via mobile · Like
        Joel Kahan Stop boasting already.
        9 hours ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Why are purses still so low then Darin? Something doesn't add up. I see this all the time about the Big M this year, the high betting handle. And while the Big M is my favorite track, and I'm sure you are helping as well, the fact is they have lost both Brennan and Sears, and the horse and driver quality is not what it once was, so to see that big of an increase in handle defies logic. FYI If you look closer at the numbers, on track handle is flat.
        about an hour ago · Edited · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer And this may explain it> http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/article.aspx?articleid=52677&zoneid=63
        Betting against cartel wagering
        xwebapp.ustrotting.com
        Editor's Note: Joseph A. Faraldo is an attorney and president of the Standardbre...See More
        about an hour ago · Like · Remove Preview
        Bryan Owen Matt, you'll want to read the Meadowlands response as well.
        about an hour ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer I'm not saying that what was written is 100% correct, but I have been hearing about this massive increase in Big M handle now all year, and yet purses are still pretty low with no increases and the quality of both horses and drivers is not what it once was. Yet handle is way up? That is 'odd' to me. Don't get me wrong, the racing itself is exciting, but the quality isn't there yet. Anytime the top two drivers in the sport cannot or won't drive there, something isn't right. Of course the argument could be made Yannick is top 2 as well.
        about an hour ago · Edited · Like
        Bryan Owen Not really the best one to answer all this Darin is. However, the purse account is effected by a bunch of factors. The added money the track add into the stakes is a huge part of it. Darin can explain this a lot better.
        about an hour ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer I understand and I look forward to Darrins response. I will say any track that is averaging that much a night in handle? From an outsider looking in, it would seem as if the purses would be much much higher.
        about an hour ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer "The Standardbred Breeders and Owners of New Jersey’s executive administrator Leo McNamara pointed out that in a wide-ranging conversation this past week.

        “About 70 percent of our purses come from betting done at the Meadowlands. That means all incoming simulcast of harness and thoroughbred as well as the live Meadowlands racing product,” McNamara said.

        On a different subject, McNamara confirmed the presence of a new “cartel” that had been the focus of the Meadowlands offering rebates to promote handle.

        “There’s a group of four guys who came forward and offered to wager $300,000 a night,” said McNamara. “This group is not a bunch of handicappers but computer guys who are looking for the right odds to wager on.”
        about an hour ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer http://www.drf.com/news/bergman-meadowlands-stock-rise
        Bergman: Meadowlands stock on the rise
        www.drf.com
        Meadowlands horsemen deserve equal credit for the resurgence at The Big M.
        about an hour ago · Like · Remove Preview
        Matt Kochendorfer From what I understand here is the best way to explain the lack of purse increases so far. The way it is set up with the OTB/cartels and the on track betting, when the cartel makes a $100 win wager on the meadowlands, regardless of who wins or loses the race, the cartel is only sending $85 to the host track (meadowlands).

        When a person at the actual Big M makes a $100 wager at the meadowlands, regardless of who wins or loses the race, that person sends $100 to the host track (meadowlands). And since OTB/cartel betting is the type of betting that is way up this year because of the massive rebates/cartels, and the on track betting is flat, that would explain why no purse increases. So in sense they are cutting off their nose to spite their face. In the end though any handle increase is good, so I don't want to make it seem as if I am complaining. But the huge handle increase with no purse increase should be explained as long as the Big M continues to tout it like they are.
        58 minutes ago · Edited · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer And there are those that say(not me as of yet I am still forming an opinion) that extreme rebates to some bettors means the rest of us are playing at a parimutuel disadvantage, in a game where the tracks and horsemen are supposed to be dispassionate bet takers in "betting amongst ourselves". But it is no longer that, as the rebated players now have a lower effective takeout, courtesy of being paid off out of the track and horsemen percentage of the takeout. The tracks and horsemen have taken sides in the pools, cartels and whales vs everyone else. Many people are saying screw that if they want to team up with other players against those who bet less. Furthermore they are saying...."What Gural did was basically kick his own customers in the teeth more than then already were being kicked....He expects you to show up at the "New Meadowlands" and wager your hard earned money (at a 20% take) and yet he gives people who sit on their sofas a 90% better deal (2% take) then he gives you for going to the track.....I fail to see how anyone can't understand how damaging that is to the sport.....Its more than damaging it.....Its killing it.....Now these places have 4% more to offer as rebate to siphon more customers away from the live meet.....It would be like Walmart selling a TV for $2000 in the store but if you order online you can get it for $200.....Who the hell is going to go to the store anymore? That is precisely why the racetracks are empty and with moronic deals like this they are going to be more empty.....Seems weird behavior for a guy building a new grandstand to house all his customers that he is encouraging people to bet from home

        Peoples failed thinking comes in thinking this is one person betting 300k a night.....Its not its 100.....He is allowing these rebate shops to act as bookmakers who just layoff every bet and make all the money by just being a professional middleman......The guy went to Gural as a joke thinking what did he have to lose.....Never thinking in a million years he would agree to such nonsense
        46 minutes ago · Edited · Like
        Darin Zoccali Matt, I'm sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about. I'm not going to answer all this because no matter what you'll think you have all the answers. The bottom line is, I need to wipe out a purse overpayment from last year before I can raise purses.
        31 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Darin that is so you! "I have no idea what I am talking about" haha. Classic Darin answer I must say!!
        27 minutes ago · Like
        Darin Zoccali Furthermore, these larger players play via simulcast, so we don't get 20% blended on their money, we get 5%. If my on track handle were up 40%, I'd be able to raise purses 20-25%, that's not the case. Your analogies make so sense in this issue. The bottom line is...if someone bets $1 Million and we get 5% comes to you and says, give me a 2.5% rebate and I'll bet $8 Million, do the math and tell me which way the track sees more money. If you don't get it, then Faraldo should put you on his payroll.
        26 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Darin Zoccali Because I don't have time for this nonsense, read the response I wrote or Bill Finleys article in harness racing update and you'll see why your analogies make no sense.
        24 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Darin, yes or no. Is on track betting flat, down, or up? Simple answer. Further, I did not say I agree or disagree with the cartel theory. I said I have yet to decide actually. I will say that from what I can tell, it appears as of the majority of the handle increase is coming from OTB. Is that correct? And if OTB cartel betting is getting a bigger rebate than the on track betters, and on track betting is flat compared to last year, THAT would explain a lot imo. Again, I am all for any handle increase. I would just like it explained more clearly where this handle increase is coming from and HOW IT WILL BENEFIT HORSEMAN!
        23 minutes ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer What you call nonsense I call points of interest and valid concerns/questions.
        21 minutes ago · Like
        Darin Zoccali Matt, it's in my response and Bill Finleys article!! On track is flat. These guys bet online. The rebate they get is bigger cause they bet more, just like a casino. If a person was betting what they were betting on track, they'd get an even bigger rebate. It helps horsemen because this group alone will put an extra $150k in the horsemens purse account by years end not to mention the other money these bettors are driving to the pools.
        20 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Darin, again, I am not disagreeing with you. Stop being so defensive. For all I know, you are 100% correct. I am just trying to connect the dots.
        18 minutes ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer In regards to your statement about the 5% of $1 M or the 2.5% of $8 M, how do you reconcile that with this quote from Jeff Gural in 2011? Quoting Jeff gural from April 1, 2011

        "We made a terrible, horrible, catastrophic mistake 15 years ago when somebody came up with the bright idea to send our signals to just about everybody who wanted it, in exchange for a payment of 3 percent. What this has done is, it has taken all of their good customers and forced them to bet with somebody else who has a computer - typically in Oregon - and a phone, and they can handle a $1 million rebate with a good chunk of that to the customer. And they keep maybe 1 percent. So they're making $1 million with a computer and a phone, and they make no contribution toward efforts to run the races, to maintain the track, to do anything. I hope that can be undone."
        17 minutes ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer That statement from Gural above goes against everything you just said. I'm confused.
        15 minutes ago · Like
        Darin Zoccali Matt - he's referring to the standard simulcast agreements with racetracks made in 1988.
        12 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Darin Zoccali Let me out it this way. John Q says: last year I bet $1 Million, you and the horsemen shares in $50k in revenue from it. Give me a rebate, this year I'll bet $8 Million and you'll share in $160k in revenue...which is better for business?
        11 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Darin Zoccali I'm not defensive, it's a race day, I have a million things to do. I wrote a response, so did Bill Finley, they answered all the questions you are raising, so I don't know what you're not getting...
        9 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Well it refers to the same concept though. They are giving the signal out cheaper, in this case 2%, compared to everyone else. I agree with your analogy above, except from what I can tell the difference in handle is not 800%, which is what you are saying. Its not close to that actually.
        9 minutes ago · Like
        Darin Zoccali The difference in these bettors handle is 800%!!
        9 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Can that be proven? In a court of law?
        8 minutes ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer j/k
        8 minutes ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer IF that is the case Darin, than I agree with you, its a good thing.
        8 minutes ago · Like
        Darin Zoccali Yes it can. I have daily tote reports that show it to be true.
        8 minutes ago via mobile · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer When can horsemen expect a purse increase?
        7 minutes ago · Like
        Matt Kochendorfer Again, I am just looking at it from a horsemans point of view. If the Big M can tout these higher handle numbers, which is GREAT, than all I am saying is the horsemen should expect a rise in purses as a result of this. I think that is a fair statement since they are racing the horses that are bringing in the handle.
        4 minutes ago · Edited · Like
        Darin Zoccali Matt, we spoke to our horsemens reps and said "I think we have a gameplay to wipe out the $300k purse overpayment...here's what it is." In time, if things go well, we might be able to raise purses. Nevermind were spending $100 Million to build a new facility. Give us time, we are working on it.

[Wink Martingale]

Good cross!!   

Good to know he wasn't, um, being defensive.