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Author Topic: CARTEL WAGERING  (Read 6502 times)
Wink Martingale
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« Reply #175 on: March 21, 2013, 09:44:19 PM »

Books are your FRIENDS!

Put another way, when someone uses a word you don't know, that does not make it the wrong word. HTH.
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« Reply #176 on: March 21, 2013, 10:07:39 PM »

As "for" this "stuff" "about" the "small" bettor" Being "better" than "Cartels", that is known as argument by assertion, or, better yet, as Making This Shit Up As You Go Along.  

Who bet that winning Buffalo double with the $29 horse in the second race down to $2.70?  sMart IndVidual "BetTors?"


Who said anything about small bettors being smarter than Cartels?

As for your second line--you dont know the answer -so this is known as Argument by Insinuation .

Whose side would you pick at a Racetrack --1)a guy(s) with a sophisticated Computer system---2)or a Horseman with Inside Information who is one hell of a Handicapper also.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2013, 10:09:40 PM by THE REAL TRUTH » Report to moderator   Logged
Wink Martingale
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« Reply #177 on: March 21, 2013, 10:41:57 PM »

Uhh, sorry, but I do know the answer; it was reported.  Dana Parham hit that.

As for the rest of your whatever-it-is, you moves the goal posts into another time zone by adding that "with Inside Information" stuff.  But thanks for playing.
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"Some people like Jews and some do not; but no thoughtful man can doubt the fact that they are beyond all question the most formidable and the most remarkable race which has ever appeared in the world."

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« Reply #178 on: March 22, 2013, 12:05:49 AM »

Again Steve, answer the question Odds On Racing have been in the pools for quite a long time and all of a sudden there are new super computers invading the Meadowlands.  Your outraged with Gural having added liquidity into the Meadowland pools.  You say you will never lay eyes on that track.  Let me guess you can spot any track at any given time, wager your two dollar bets, without fear of a MIT computer geek who is at the controls.  You can also keep digging into the HFT who have gotten killed over the past fourteen months trading commodities, like I said they continue to cannibalize as the professional trader waits for certain moves.  These *** just move the market blindly and exit positions by days end.  The only thing HFT provide are markets that move.  The so called cartels aren't scaring people away from gambling on horses.  All the complaining on here is that the smaller guy isn't getting a REBATE.  So again Steve, you have been around the block answer to Dana, and his group of 30 employee's who have wagered more than 2.4 BILLION over seven years.   
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« Reply #179 on: March 22, 2013, 12:44:25 AM »

So poor Steve, Mr.Knowitall won't wager at a track that gives a home field advantage, aka the Meadowlands.  That is with Gural trying to level the playing field by weeding out suspect dirty trainers.  Yet for years he has come on and complained about crackheads, drunks, gas trainers, driving syndicates all at the chi-town track's where he places majority of his wagers.  Knowitall has formulated Through many races on how to play pick four and pick five races at the so called fixed Chicago tracks by weeding out certain cast of characters.  So are the rest of us at a disadvantage to Steve.  How about when my horses race at a Pa track and I'm 40-50 percent of the wps pool.  Do I know consider myself as a cartel.  That is what you have left Steve, PA tracks with no pools, no money in exotic pools, and a large takeout rake by the track.  Have fun wagering at those tracks.
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sulkyfromouterspace
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« Reply #180 on: March 22, 2013, 03:50:18 AM »

On "Cartels" Faraldo's Math All Wrong

By Bill Finley
If "cartel wagering" put more money into the pocket's of
horsemen racing at the Meadowlands would Joe Faraldo be
in favor of it? Faraldo would probably rather get scurvy than
see Jeff Gural make more money at the Meadowlands and
he's never exactly been a champion
of the bettor. But that's fine. He is
not paid to represent the
horseplayer and whether or not a
New Jersey track operator is making
money is not really his concern. But
as the head of the Standardbred
Owners Association of New York
Faraldo has been a fierce fighter
when it comes to horsemen, their
rights and how much money they
make. So would Faraldo be in favor
of something that has added to the
total in the purse account? Of
course he would.
So what was Faraldo thinking
when he penned an incendiary
column the other day criticizing what
he called "cartel wagering" at the
Meadowlands? Was his calculator on the fritz? And as the
head of the group representing horsemen at Yonkers why
hasn't he been demanding that management at Old Hilltop
start doing more to attract huge bettors, like the
Meadowlands has?
The mistake Faraldo made the other day when he
bashed the Meadowlands and, basically, called the handle
increases there a fraud, was that he hit the send button
before he had all the facts straight. By giving rebates to a
single large player the Meadowlands has increased its
handle, made more money for itself and this particular
bettor, and, yes, put more money into the purse account.
It's obvious where Faraldo made his mistake when he
wrote "The addition of gross handle in this fashion
produces a zero-sum effect, resulting in no additional
revenue being generated to increase purses or add a race
day. Sadly, it has done nothing for increasing on-track
wagering heralded as a major accomplishment at the New
Meadowlands." He based his claims on handle "tripling"
because of the rebate being given to the big player. If that
is all that had happened, Faraldo wouldn't have been too
far off. The Meadowlands wouldn't have accomplished
much of anything rather than shifting a lot of money into
the pocket of one player.
But the handle from the player didn't triple. It increased
by 700 percent. The same player that had bet $1 million at
the prior meet when not getting a rebate has wagered $8
million.
According to industry sources, the Meadowlands sells its
signal for $5.375 percent, with half that total going to the
track and half going to horsemen. That means that when the
player bet $1 million, the track made $28,000 and the
horsemen made $28,000.
Faraldo was correct
when he claimed that by
giving the customer the
rebates the Meadowlands
was effectively selling its
signal for 2 percent. That's
because the Meadowlands
is giving the big player a
rebate of roughly 3
percent, which comes off
the 5.375 percent it gets
paid by the ADW operator
that processes the player's
bets.
So, what's 2 percent of 8 million? It's $160,000, $80,000 for
the Meadowlands, $80,000 for the horsemen. It's only March
and the horsemen have already made an additional $52,000.
If the big player continues to wager at the same rate the
horsemen will have made about $150,000 extra before the
meet is over thanks to the Meadowlands' policy of rebating
the player.
The rest of Faraldo's accusations are nonsense. Yes, there
is someone who often bets $2,000 on more than one horse
at the very beginning of the wagering. It is not the "cartel" but
a particular bettor with some odd wagering habits who has
never once canceled his bets. Yes, a daily double at the
Meadowlands came back too low, but it was because the
owner of one of the winning horses personally made a large
bet on the winning combination.
The Meadowlands is having a good meet and is doing so
without any funny business. In a way, at least with the
rebates, it got lucky. Probably no one ever imagined the
player would increase his betting by so much, the reason
why the rebate program has been such a success. But the
track was smart enough to insert an out clause in the
contract with the bettor. Had he not increased his betting by
a significant amount the deal would have been off.
Faraldo is not alone. The industry has always
misunderstood rebates and how they are most often a
win-win. Even the Meadowlands once blew this. Last year
they were offered the same proposal by the bettor and
turned him down.
The primary reason why betting on race horses is not more
popular is because the takeout is so enormous that, really,
no one can win. There just aren't enough people out there
willing to consistently lose their shirts, especially when every
other gambling game but the lottery offers fairer odds. By
giving the player a rebate you are essentially reducing the
takeout and making the game beatable. The big player
knows that with rebates they may have a 2 or 3 percent
edge and the only way to make serious money is to churn
huge amounts through the windows. The slice of the pie
may be smaller but the pie grows much bigger and
everyone wins. And that's precisely what has happened
at the Meadowlands. What they have accomplished with
the rebates and this bettor is a perfect example of how,
when this is done right, everyone (the horsemen included)
benefits.
The irony is that Yonkers needs the "cartel" much more
than the Meadowlands and welcoming them could have a
huge positive impact on handle there. The Meadowlands
says that the big bettor has added money into the pools,
which has enticed other bettors to play more. I'm not sure
that's the case. The Meadowlands pools are by far the
biggest in the sport and probably didn't need any extra
money to pump up handle from other bettors. That's not
the case at Yonkers. The pools are so small there that a
lot of big bettors who won't play there. If the "cartel" were
ever to come to Yonkers its play would likely have an
impact that goes beyond the money it bets.
Then again, maybe the "cartel" won't do for Yonkers
what it did for the Meadowlands, but Faraldo should at
least look into enticing some of these big bettors to wager
more on Yonkers races by offering them rebates. He
shouldn’t be criticizing the Meadowlands. He should be
copying them.
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Bet with Integrity .....Bet with Gural !
sulkyfromouterspace
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« Reply #181 on: March 22, 2013, 03:57:01 AM »

He
shouldn’t be criticizing the Meadowlands. He should be
copying them.




AMEN !!!!   The same goes for every single person that says they are a harness racing fan !    We ALL should be supporting Jeff Gural and his valiant efforts to save the Meadowlands and the sport of harness racing !   As harness racing fans we ALL should be energized and start spreading the word about Americas Original Pastime  HARNESS RACING !!   





 trotter <-------- Loves the OLD AND NEW MEADOWLANDS !!!        trotter trotter   

 flag flag GOD BLESS JEFF GURAL  flag flag           
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Bet with Integrity .....Bet with Gural !
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« Reply #182 on: March 22, 2013, 06:34:29 AM »

AGREE
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TrimTab
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« Reply #183 on: March 22, 2013, 07:30:03 AM »

Well I will say this the analogy of rebates at the Casino and rebates at the track is totally two different things. The odds are controlled at the Casino and the outcome of the games never changes or cannot be affected by the player. So, the Casino knows exactly what implied odds they still have over each person. Now it doesn't take a genius to know, that the outcome of a race can be influenced by outside agencies and or players, in fact there are multiple ways that it can be done and by effectively lowering the overall takeout to 2%, it becomes much easier to siphon money out of the pools, with minor influences on the outcome of races. I'm not going to lay it out, but take some time playing with the numbers and you will see that by even influencing the position of one or two horses allows for an even greater return from these big pools.

I'll take small pools everyday over large ones, too much of an incentive to manipulate large pools. Just made easier by lowering the takeout for special individuals with the means (money) to manipulate them.
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THE REAL TRUTH
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« Reply #184 on: March 22, 2013, 08:32:19 AM »

Well I will say this the analogy of rebates at the Casino and rebates at the track is totally two different things. The odds are controlled at the Casino and the outcome of the games never changes or cannot be affected by the player. So, the Casino knows exactly what implied odds they still have over each person. Now it doesn't take a genius to know, that the outcome of a race can be influenced by outside agencies and or players, in fact there are multiple ways that it can be done and by effectively lowering the overall takeout to 2%, it becomes much easier to siphon money out of the pools, with minor influences on the outcome of races. I'm not going to lay it out, but take some time playing with the numbers and you will see that by even influencing the position of one or two horses allows for an even greater return from these big pools.

I'll take small pools everyday over large ones, too much of an incentive to manipulate large pools. Just made easier by lowering the takeout for special individuals with the means (money) to manipulate them.

Enlighten me please Mr TrimTab--how does one person sitting behind a computer at another location off-site--influence the outcome of races?
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« Reply #185 on: March 22, 2013, 08:33:14 AM »

1)  I LOVE the fact that big bettors get big rebates.  It encourages them to bet more.  Its also a factor in large show bets on odds-on favorites.  Except for the occasional "pool shot" I know that no matter how much I win on a race, somebody has won more.  If that bothers you to know that when you win, I suggest another endeavor.

2)  Horse racing was very popular long before there were any rebates.

3)  The reason it is so much more difficult for someone to make a living from playing the horses than 40 years ago has ZERO to do with computerized handicapping or pool manipulation.  Its mostly about the cost of living rise and the handle decline.

On computerized handicapping:

4) If anyone thinks that computerized handicapping is better than observational handicapping (akin to comparing technical analysis to fundamental analysis in the stock market), I will be happy to design and write a program for you (for a reasonable fee) that will be better than anything else in the marketplace.

For years people have been after me to combine my computer and handicapping knowledge together for the "ultimate" weapon at the track.  After due analysis I concluded that that soft skills more than number crunching was needed to beat the game.  One example -- hot and cold trainers.  If you believe wins and losses define hot and cold trainers, that's one opinion.  I factor in racing luck and appearance a lot higher (e.g., a perfect trip all out win is not as impressive as a parked-the-mile-first-over-finish-last if the horse tires very late in the race) than result.

For example, tonight Tamayo has the rail against Cane Ridge.  Cane Ridge beat Tamayo by 9 lengths last week.  9 lengths is a lot.  Now I don't know if Tamayo can reverse 9 lengths tonight, but I do know that the odds will not reflect the 9 length defeat because handicappers know it was the trip that killed Tamayo and he should get a better trip tonight.  (Personally, I think that if the odds difference is great enough, Tamayo is an excellent bet).

Opinions can be quantified and employed in a computer program.  However, the issue becomes one of massive data entry in a short window.  (e.g., Trainer Smith had a horse in the third race that had been racing poorly.  But tonight, the horse was much better, but bad racing luck did him in.  If you ignore that factor when considering the horse Trainer Smith has in the ninth race, you are missing out on one of the best angles in the game.)  There are just so many soft-skills examples.  This was just one of them.

Note:  My personal opinion is that harness racing handicapping is 70% past performance analysis and 30% angles while thoroughbred handicalling is 70% angles and 30% past performance analysis.  Therefore, I give a computerized system more of an advantage with the t-breds.  Of course the programmer still has to be a crackerjack handicapper.
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #186 on: March 22, 2013, 11:26:35 AM »

Bla bla bla.

I don't give a hoot about computer nerds.  What I care about is cartels/consortia composed in whole or in part of insiders and (wait for it...) resultant serious information asymmetries.  These are crucial, but of course no one understands or even reads these posts anyway, go on,  respond to points no one made, hey, how about that "Daiv" "Millor", world without end, amen.  Wink

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« Reply #187 on: March 22, 2013, 12:04:42 PM »

Bravo to Bill Finley.

I know personally i've wagered on M1 races BECAUSE the pool sizes have been bigger...so, theres at least one bettor out there who is increasing M1 handle specifically because of this 'cartel' existing.

As the little kid on the bed (reading the Playboy magazine) at the end of the 1978 movie Animal House once famously said, "THANK YOU GOD!"

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« Reply #188 on: March 22, 2013, 12:05:54 PM »

Bla bla bla.

I don't give a hoot about computer nerds.  What I care about is cartels/consortia composed in whole or in part of insiders and (wait for it...) resultant serious information asymmetries.  These are crucial, but of course no one understands or even reads these posts anyway, go on,  respond to points no one made, hey, how about that "Daiv" "Millor", world without end, amen.  Wink



If there is inside info and race fixing involved I'm not for it.
At this point that is conjecture and worthy of discussion.
I agree that if the cartel is using multiple points of info not publicly available then this stinks.
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #189 on: March 22, 2013, 12:23:46 PM »

Wait a minute, finley is ripping someone for not checking facts before sending...but writes this entire piece eluding to the cartel as 1 person? What the hell is going on here? Hilarious...
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #190 on: March 22, 2013, 12:46:48 PM »

Bravo to Bill Finley.

I know personally i've wagered on M1 races BECAUSE the pool sizes have been bigger...so, theres at least one bettor out there who is increasing M1 handle specifically because of this 'cartel' existing.

As the little kid on the bed (reading the Playboy magazine) at the end of the 1978 movie Animal House once famously said, "THANK YOU GOD!"



Of course.  If these so-called cartels are increasing pool size -- let's have more of them.  trophy
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #191 on: March 22, 2013, 12:56:36 PM »

Yep, that's right... we need bigger pools, so we can have results like THIS:

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru040112.pdf
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« Reply #192 on: March 22, 2013, 01:02:29 PM »

What's lost in all this is that when gural took over, he stated that he was waging war on the rebate shops. Vowing to end them. Now....this? How things can change.....I like this guy less with every day that passes
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« Reply #193 on: March 22, 2013, 01:08:43 PM »

Yep, that's right... we need bigger pools, so we can have results like THIS:

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru040112.pdf

Bigger pools would AVOID results like this!

You gotta love it when someone's computer goes haywire and they make a horrendous bet. Also, when there was 12 mtp for race 2 and the put up the DD probable as 2.70, that didnt stop anyone from betting the 2nd race horse to win.
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« Reply #194 on: March 22, 2013, 01:39:55 PM »

Quoting Jeff gural from April 1, 2011

"We made a terrible, horrible, catastrophic mistake 15 years ago when somebody came up with the bright idea to send our signals to just about everybody who wanted it, in exchange for a payment of 3 percent. What this has done is, it has taken all of their good customers and forced them to bet with somebody else who has a computer - typically in Oregon - and a phone, and they can handle a $1 million rebate with a good chunk of that to the customer. And they keep maybe 1 percent. So they're making $1 million with a computer and a phone, and they make no contribution toward efforts to run the races, to maintain the track, to do anything. I hope that can be undone."


HAHAHAHA
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TrimTab
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« Reply #195 on: March 22, 2013, 01:43:32 PM »

Enlighten me please Mr TrimTab--how does one person sitting behind a computer at another location off-site--influence the outcome of races?

They draw race days in advance so let's see modern technology like the telegraph or maybe pony express. A bicycle ride to the barn, walk to the tavern across the street from the racetrack. I could go on, but what's the sense.
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #196 on: March 22, 2013, 01:50:17 PM »

Bigger pools would AVOID results like this!

You gotta love it when someone's computer goes haywire and they make a horrendous bet. Also, when there was 12 mtp for race 2 and the put up the DD probable as 2.70, that didnt stop anyone from betting the 2nd race horse to win.

Are you KIDDING?

Insider money was something like 80-90% of that DD pool, hence the dinky mutuel.  You think Parham is some Okie from Muskogee, and not the owner of a stable which has quality hosses racing all over the place? He bet over $4300 on that one DD combo, which, um,  came in.

Anyone who wants more insider money in the pools is nuts.

In the old days in NY, you had a fair amount of "dumb"/outsider money in the pools, such that Cool Hand Mike, lifetime ten-for-ten on off tracks in NY, was still allowed to go to the post at 9-2 in his last mud race, which of course he won. 

Put more "smart" money in the pools and that horse would pay $3.80... as would be roughly the case if this scenario arose today.

All this sort of thing does is discourage the part-time players, the casual fans, and the would-be fans. 
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« Reply #197 on: March 22, 2013, 02:14:58 PM »

Yep, that's right... we need bigger pools, so we can have results like THIS:

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru040112.pdf

But, but, but, you just said you had no interest in computers - yet this foul up can only happen when computers are poorly programmed.  The good news is that these computer-generated programs pump up the pools and we poor handicappers who are forced to think -- can benefit from the errors.
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #198 on: March 22, 2013, 02:22:34 PM »

I can't believe this.

The point is not the computer, the point is the identity of the person claiming to use it.    

Is Parham an insider or an outsider?  Simple question.

 
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"Some people like Jews and some do not; but no thoughtful man can doubt the fact that they are beyond all question the most formidable and the most remarkable race which has ever appeared in the world."

--Winston Churchill
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« Reply #199 on: March 22, 2013, 02:26:30 PM »

Outsider?  What's an outsider?  I'm an outsider.  If I bet more money, I too, could warrant juicy rebates.

In the meantime this "outsider" is making the pools bigger.  Good for the bettors.  Good for the horsemen.
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