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Author Topic: Pick-6 payoffs at GP continue to amaze  (Read 866 times)
Psycho Dad
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« on: March 18, 2013, 10:59:39 AM »

As players continue to throw gobs of money on horses with no figure while chasing the rainbow, the winning payoffs are incredibly high despite the immense takeout.

Yesterday was yet another example -- as the dime payout exceeded $3,700 without one crazy longshot in the bunch.

It has become the best value bet on the planet.
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mottoman
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2013, 12:54:52 PM »

OH BOY!!  doh
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beobob
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2013, 01:00:04 PM »

It has become the best value bet on the planet.

If you only spend a dime, I agree.
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2013, 01:36:22 PM »

If you only spend a dime, I agree.

You hit exactas by only betting cold ones for two bucks?  You are good.  bowing

I played $12 yesterday and was four out of six on the pick-6.  Could not believe how much it paid.  I will definitely start putting more money into it as it has become the greatest value play in racing history.

More than $270,000 was put into the pool yesterday, and most people seem to play it like the lottery (i.e., picking numbers trying to hit the jackpot).  This lottery attitude provides an enormous advantage to the handicapper.

And you don't have to bet $2 a combo, as with the other big pool opportunities.  You get 1,000 combos for $100 bet and payoffs are always in the thousands.

What seemed like the most ridiculous bet ever, has become the BEST BET EVER because of its popularity with the lottery-types!!!
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2013, 02:13:48 PM »

Here are the raw numbers from yesterday.

9-2
*4-5
*5-2
10-1
6-1
*7-5

*4-5, 5-2 and 7-5 were favorites.

The parlay on a $2 bet is about $7,500.  Therefore the dime payoff should be a little over $370.  How about the payoff being ten times as much!!!  This happens all the time.

The reason for the massive payouts?  For the most part, handicappers have not yet cuaght on to the bet and the pool is mostly lottery-types.

Oh yes, and the carryover is now $900,000.  If the 1-horse won the last race, nobody would have had 6 out of 6.
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2013, 02:58:09 PM »

So many people fishing for the whole thing and leaving out dead chalks which do them no good the payoffs have been amazing......The other thing is nobody is duplicating any tickets for obvious reasons......So people arent hitting it for $10 like they might a P3 or P4.....When they spend 2k and get 20k combos and can only hit it once they arent hurting the price at all
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SHOWTIME!!!
Psycho Dad
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2013, 03:46:23 PM »

Exactly.  I'll wager that the 4-5 and 7-5 winners, yesterday, were not played that much more in the pick-6 than other horses in the race.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2013, 04:09:08 PM »

Imagine how much more it would pay if the takeout wasn't 52%.

If you actually hit it, I mean. Still no news on this forum of any of our gungho players actually taking down even a conso.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2013, 04:10:41 PM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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beobob
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« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2013, 04:28:11 PM »

Imagine how much more it would pay if the takeout wasn't 52%.

If you actually hit it, I mean. Still no news on this forum of any of our gungho players actually taking down even a conso.

His thinking isn't entirely crazy.  If you have tens of thousands of dollars bet everyday that do not include the chalks (either by design or through quick picks), a decent handicapper could craft a ticket with 2 or 3 picks per race with a single for $20 or so and have a shot at 100-1+ payout even with chalks hitting.  It would be lunacy to throw thousands (or even hundreds) every day at this, but his point that people avoid the chalks can be used to a good handicappers advantage. Throwing in $10-30 for a shot of a couple thousand isn't off the wall crazy using his logic. 
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RacetrackRailbird
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2013, 08:37:18 PM »


The reason for the massive payouts?  For the most part, handicappers have not yet cuaght on to the bet and the pool is mostly lottery-types.



No,  that's the thing, it ISN'T  "Lottery types".     Lottery types would make for a random distribution.

What you have here is an entirely unique scenario where thoughtful players are purposefully avoiding the path right through the middle of the live horses.  That is what creates the high relative value on days when favorites rule the sequence.


That element of the bet significantly negates the impact of the (perceived) "takeout" (which, of course, isn't really takeout ).


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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2013, 09:17:44 PM »

His thinking isn't entirely crazy.  If you have tens of thousands of dollars bet everyday that do not include the chalks (either by design or through quick picks), a decent handicapper could craft a ticket with 2 or 3 picks per race with a single for $20 or so and have a shot at 100-1+ payout even with chalks hitting.  It would be lunacy to throw thousands (or even hundreds) every day at this, but his point that people avoid the chalks can be used to a good handicappers advantage. Throwing in $10-30 for a shot of a couple thousand isn't off the wall crazy using his logic. 

That's the theory.

So far the GP meet has been going on since the beginning of December. To my knowledge, zero hits among the good handicappers of this forum.

A Pick Six is something extremely hard to hit. Lots of losing days chasing that one $3700 for the dime ... that should have been $5500.
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beobob
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« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2013, 09:30:05 PM »

A Pick Six is something extremely hard to hit. Lots of losing days chasing that one $3700 for the dime ... that should have been $5500.

Chasing this bet would be crazy, but a 1/2/2/3/3/3 ticket would cost about $10. I would take a $10 shot every once in a while, but anyone looking for major coverage is nuts til the last day.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2013, 11:10:20 PM »

Chasing this bet would be crazy, but a 1/2/2/3/3/3 ticket would cost about $10. I would take a $10 shot every once in a while, but anyone looking for major coverage is nuts til the last day.

If you want to toss $10 at it once in awhile and hope you get lucky, I could see that. I do stuff like that with P6 myself when I'm at a P6 track. But these guys are carrying on as though a guy would be stupid not to be investing $70-$100 per day, like it is so easy to hit.

How many days of this GP meet have gone by so far, at $70-$100 per day? And how many hits by wise guys of this forum?
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2013, 03:20:23 PM »

If you want to toss $10 at it once in awhile and hope you get lucky, I could see that. I do stuff like that with P6 myself when I'm at a P6 track. But these guys are carrying on as though a guy would be stupid not to be investing $70-$100 per day, like it is so easy to hit.

How many days of this GP meet have gone by so far, at $70-$100 per day? And how many hits by wise guys of this forum?

Easy to hit?  Hardly.  The issue is value.  I just recently became aware of the incredible prices.  Sunday was the first time I actually took some time to handicap the GP pick-6.  I never play the big money pick-6s which require $2 a combo.  Occasionally I'll stab at a $1 a combo if the carryover is worthwhile.  I've hit a couple, no major scores.

Sunday I wrote out a $144 play for giggles (I would have hit 5). Then I plunked down $12 American for 120 combos and hit 4 out of 6.  (2x5x1x1x6x2 -- and missed the two singles).  The payoff for the ones that came in floored me.  I didn't make the 4-5 winner a standout.  But obviously many players did.  If you made him a single, and the 7-5 winner a single, you had a great chance of hitting the ticket.

Everybody has their own budget.  It only costs $6.40 for two horses in every race.  That same play at Santa Anita or Aqueducts costs $128.  That's some difference.  Nobody is saying it is easy to hit six races in a row using only two selections, but I'm sure everyone has had a run of 6 races where one of their top two selections won.  The $12 play I made would have cost $240 at Santa Anita and I had a nice run at the $3,700 payoff.

If your budget allows you to risk $50 or more on the long odds bet -- can you hit one every 10 days?

In case you were wondering, three in each race costs $72.90.

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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2013, 03:48:11 PM »

$6250 claimers galore... several of the leading trainers racing out of Payson Park, with workouts apparently STILL reported on the (cough!) honor system... spare me.
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2013, 09:52:31 AM »

Hope some of you folks grabbed some of that low hanging fruit at GP, yesterday in the pick-6.  Four out of six were faves including two singles at 3-5 and even money.  The two "longshots" were only 8-1.  The payoff was over $1,100 for a dime.

The day before was a lot tougher to hit, but the payoff was still twice the parlay for those who were lucky enough to pick all 6.
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Ghostjones
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« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2013, 11:18:18 AM »

Hope some of you folks grabbed some of that low hanging fruit at GP, yesterday in the pick-6.  Four out of six were faves including two singles at 3-5 and even money.  The two "longshots" were only 8-1.  The payoff was over $1,100 for a dime.

The day before was a lot tougher to hit, but the payoff was still twice the parlay for those who were lucky enough to pick all 6.

Went 5/6 on a 21.60 ticket,  was live to the 5 12 last race.  Spread a little more today:

4 6 7 9 / 5 8 / 1 9 11 / 1 3 4 6 8 / 4 5 / 1 5 = $48... GL!
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2013, 02:49:11 PM »

Went 5/6 on a 21.60 ticket,  was live to the 5 12 last race.  Spread a little more today:

4 6 7 9 / 5 8 / 1 9 11 / 1 3 4 6 8 / 4 5 / 1 5 = $48... GL!

That last winner was no gimme.  For the same investment, you needed to be in love with the two big faves for singletons.
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RacetrackRailbird
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« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2013, 04:47:49 PM »


April 3 results:


$5.40
$4.00
$4.40
$4.60
$7.60
$4.00

That's 4 faves, a 2nd choice, and a 3rd choice


Dime payoff:     $91.21


That equates to $1824.20    for a $2 bet !!!

(now surely tons of late scratches figured into those diminished win payoffs, but there is nothing lacking about that price)


Lets see if Gulfstream can completely botch this year's mandatory payout day as they did last year's...


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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2013, 05:30:00 PM »

April 3 results:


$5.40
$4.00
$4.40
$4.60
$7.60
$4.00

That's 4 faves, a 2nd choice, and a 3rd choice


Dime payoff:     $91.21


That equates to $1824.20    for a $2 bet !!!

But a pretty crappy return of $91.21 for your normal mythical $72-something investment to catch the dime payoff.
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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2013, 05:34:42 PM »

A lot of 20-20 hindsight here. 
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« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2013, 06:39:17 PM »

But a pretty crappy return of $91.21 for your normal mythical $72-something investment to catch the dime payoff.


You need to go back on your meds.

Are you talking about the "normal" pick-6 wager by the common man of $1440-something (in $2 ticket terms) ??


Yeah, right, because that's normal  in the way of a pick-6 investment for most of us.


This is the one where people play two in each race, costing $6.40, and they cash for $91.

Maybe they even spend $64 and cash for $910.

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Wink Martingale
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« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2013, 06:41:17 PM »

"RETROSPECTIVE HANDICAPPING:  100% WINNERZZZZZ!!!"
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