Chicago Barn to Wire Breeders' Cup Handicapping Tournaments
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


November 01, 2014, 01:18:45 AM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Preferences: Chalk? Or not to Chalk?  (Read 691 times)
the exactorman
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4352




Ignore
« on: February 26, 2013, 10:37:47 AM »

I wanted to see various opinions regarding betting short prices horses, let's say 4/5 or less.

Long time ago I went to track and bet many heavy odds on favorites. I had a bad night. I vowed to never have that feeling again. I noticed that if I had a bad night betting value, I wasn't as aggravated. I try my best to either sit out a race with a prohibitive favorite, or bet picks.
When I lose on chalk, I walk out of the track feeling like Billy Hayes in Midnight Express.....you kinda feel like you were violated in Istanbul....
Report to moderator   Logged
jdizigg
Guest

« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2013, 10:47:20 AM »

I wanted to see various opinions regarding betting short prices horses, let's say 4/5 or less.

Long time ago I went to track and bet many heavy odds on favorites. I had a bad night. I vowed to never have that feeling again. I noticed that if I had a bad night betting value, I wasn't as aggravated. I try my best to either sit out a race with a prohibitive favorite, or bet picks.
When I lose on chalk, I walk out of the track feeling like Billy Hayes in Midnight Express.....you kinda feel like you were violated in Istanbul....

Its not about betting chalk or not chalk.  I never know what price im going to go for until i have taken in most of the factors of all the horses.  Sometimes i dont mind loading up on a 4/5 but rarely will do it.  Saturday Night THUNDER STEELER at balmoral was a mortal lock and i thought i could get even money or 4/5 i put 2 hundo on him and he jogged and paid 3.20 and i was actually quite happy with that but normally wont do that...
Report to moderator   Logged
clubhouse
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3124




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2013, 11:07:07 AM »

I agree with JD, it depends on the circumstances. It sure is great going into a race that you know a horse will be 1-2 and his chances of winning are very slim.
Report to moderator   Logged
jdizigg
Guest

« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2013, 11:19:00 AM »

I agree with JD, it depends on the circumstances. It sure is great going into a race that you know a horse will be 1-2 and his chances of winning are very slim.

Theres a few horses that i LITERALLY celeberate everytime they come up in the entries  beer beer example BELLA MARTA.  Myself and a few other guys literally cant believe how she always goes off the favorite in everything win and place, exacta, tri's.  It is literally the best race to bet of the night every rip.   beer beer
Report to moderator   Logged
FVRedhot
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1436




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2013, 11:29:28 AM »

It certainly does depend on the circumstances (Thunder Steeler was a great favorite) and, what most people will NEVER learn, it also depends on who YOU are.

Guess what?  Some people like redheads.  Some people don't.  Some people like them fat.  Others prefer thin.

My point, you must be able to identify your betting "tastes" and "distates" and craft a sensible plan accordingly.

To be "bullied" into a certain type of wagering is insane.  Who you are and what you bring to the table ultimately will define what type of bettor you should be to have the most success.  

Ultimately you must feel "good" and "positive" before you place the wager.  That is why "chasing" is so dangerous, because by definition, it is done when you are struggling and thus you may not be in the most "positive" position.  

It sounds as if you don't feel good when you lose on a low priced horse.  Yet, it sounds as though you might be able to take 10 losses in a row on horses at 20-1.  Others, however, would find it hard not to cash for 20 races, and they must bet lower odd horses.  

Ever see Arnold Palmer swing?  Most would say that he had no chance to be any good based on that approach.  How about Jedrik Hanover?  His gait would be labeled as the worst ever.  Wendy Ross is "hot" to some.  We all are different and just bet the way that works for you.



















« Last Edit: February 26, 2013, 11:45:39 AM by FVRedhot » Report to moderator   Logged
clubhouse
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3124




Ignore
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2013, 11:30:35 AM »

Once in a while you get the 1-2 trotter that is acting up in the warm ups, that you know is going to dance. bowing medal
Report to moderator   Logged
jdizigg
Guest

« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2013, 11:32:52 AM »

It certainly does depend on the circumstances (Thunder Steeler was a great favorite) and, what most people will NEVER learn, it also depends on who YOU are.

Guess what?  Some people like redheads.  Some people don't.  Some people like them fat.  Others prefer thin.

My point, you must be able to identify your betting "tastes" and "distates" and craft a sensible plan accordingly.

To be "bullied" into a certain type of wagering is insane.  Who you are and what you bring to the table ultimately will define what type of bettor you should be to have the most success.  

Ultimately you must feel "good" and "positive" before you place the wager.  That is why "chasing" is so dangerous, because by definition, it is done when you are struggling and thus you may not be in the most "positive" position.  

It sounds as if you don't feel good when you lose on a low priced horse.  Yet, it sounds as though you might be able to take 10 loses in a row on horses at 20-1.  Others, however, would find it hard not to cash for 20 races, and they must bet lower odd horses.  

Ever see Arnold Palmer swing?  Most would say that he had no chance to be any good based on that approach.  How about Jendrik Hanover?  His gait would be labeled as the worst ever.  Wendy Ross is "hot" to some.  We all are different and just bet the way that works for you.



excellent post redhot thumbs up
Report to moderator   Logged
Wink Martingale
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2176

"They gave me a hat. I have the hat to this day."




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2013, 11:58:28 AM »

Some races lend themselves to favorites. If you're betting NW1 and NW2 open allowances at major t-bred tracks, the races tend to be very formful, for a variety of reasons.
Report to moderator   Logged

"Some people like Jews and some do not; but no thoughtful man can doubt the fact that they are beyond all question the most formidable and the most remarkable race which has ever appeared in the world."

--Winston Churchill
salzburg
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1066




Ignore
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2013, 12:05:23 PM »

i look for a horse who a chance to beat the ml fav- but if the fav looks ezceptional, so be it. in my case, i dont worry about the odds, because i have my wagers in well before post time {4-5 hours}, before post. i remember one time i wih i hadnt however, as i had a $100 win bet in a bc race- horse went of 99-1. horse was 12-1 ml- but ran like odds said. but on the other hand, last year i played a horse 6-1 ml, went out of the 8 hole- i got a gift- paid $36. i dont let the odds affect my wager.
Report to moderator   Logged
Blue Chip55
Guest

« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2013, 12:14:48 PM »

It has always come down to what you percieve as value. The problem in the last 15 years in harness racing, you have no idea what price anyone is going to be until well after the start of the race. So if you are a win better, you have no clue what you are getting. But as been stated, everyone has their own preference. What one man thinks is a good price on a horse is seen as a terrible price by the guy next to you. Its always good to say " I wont take less than this " but as i said , thats almost impossible to do with the small pools and strange wagering patterns. It makes win betting very difficult and why I dont do it. I dont like late surprises. 

Report to moderator   Logged
jdizigg
Guest

« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2013, 12:16:50 PM »

It has always come down to what you percieve as value. The problem in the last 15 years in harness racing, you have no idea what price anyone is going to be until well after the start of the race. So if you are a win better, you have no clue what you are getting. But as been stated, everyone has their own preference. What one man thinks is a good price on a horse is seen as a terrible price by the guy next to you. Its always good to say " I wont take less than this " but as i said , thats almost impossible to do with the small pools and strange wagering patterns. It makes win betting very difficult and why I dont do it. I dont like late surprises. 



Yes, very true cpw at some tracks 50 or 100 dollars sways the odds tremendously...
Report to moderator   Logged
Blue Chip55
Guest

« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2013, 12:42:21 PM »

Yes, very true cpw at some tracks 50 or 100 dollars sways the odds tremendously...


Totally wreck some pools with that amount. Go look at the Maine tracks. Pools are incredible. Same for the Canadian C tracks. Just nuts to get involved at so many of these--at least as far as the win end goes
Report to moderator   Logged
APPRENTICE
Guest

« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2013, 01:18:29 PM »

whats A  CHALK?Huh laughing guy laughing guy
Report to moderator   Logged
Dolfan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 6400




Ignore
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2013, 01:43:42 PM »

Most of the time 3-5's are 3-5 because they look it & yet they lose plenty of times.  Other times 3-5's look 2-1 but they seem to win just as often as the logical 3-5.

I won't bet any of them - I'd much sooner pass.  I get annoyed when I bet near the bell & I go from 7-2 (also too low) to 8-5.  Win or lose, a waste of a bet, IMO.

I have no rock bottom standard but when I do see a horse who looks 2-1 & he's 8-1, that's usually because someone knows better than me & they'll stiff.  So I avoid that too.  Even with all that passing it's no problem finding 20 bets at 6-1 or higher on any night, between all the tracks.
Report to moderator   Logged

We can produce more wealth, but we cannot produce more time.  When we give someone our time, we actually give a portion of our life that we will never get back.
Wink Martingale
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2176

"They gave me a hat. I have the hat to this day."




Ignore
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2013, 01:45:12 PM »

whats A  CHALK?Huh laughing guy laughing guy

Former JFA/FFA type in NY for John Chapman (after racing in Illinois) by Addio Byrd out of Jean Tell.  I think.  Wink
Report to moderator   Logged

"Some people like Jews and some do not; but no thoughtful man can doubt the fact that they are beyond all question the most formidable and the most remarkable race which has ever appeared in the world."

--Winston Churchill
Psycho Dad
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1261




Ignore
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2013, 04:09:44 PM »

Sometimes 4/5 is an overlay.  Sometime 10-1 is too short a price to take.
Report to moderator   Logged
Sea Biscuit
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 7873

Member Since Dec 17-2006




Ignore
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2013, 04:47:13 PM »

I wanted to see various opinions regarding betting short prices horses, let's say 4/5 or less.

Long time ago I went to track and bet many heavy odds on favorites. I had a bad night. I vowed to never have that feeling again. I noticed that if I had a bad night betting value, I wasn't as aggravated. I try my best to either sit out a race with a prohibitive favorite, or bet picks.
When I lose on chalk, I walk out of the track feeling like Billy Hayes in Midnight Express.....you kinda feel like you were violated in Istanbul....

There are certain guide lines you have to follow when betting the favorites.
You can't just bet every favorite and hope to come out alive in this game.

You have to ask your self one question. What are the chances % wise of the favorite winning todays race in relation to the field.  Does the horse has  50%, 75% or do you think the horse is gonna lay over the field and win by open lengths in which case you can say the horse has a 95% chance of winning the race. I wrote an article titled Making your own odds line a few years back. This article has been a sticky in the handicapping section of Hoberz's forum (LL) since Dec 2010. I may have posted it here as well but I can't find it in the BTW archives.

I am copy and pasting the whole article here one more time.


Making your own odds line


When you sit down to handicap do you ever bother to make your own odds line?

Every professional handicapper does and you should too. If not for the whole field then just for the one or two or three contenders in a race at least. I know its difficult but you must try.

A odds line essentially is to assign odds to every horse in a field in relation to its todays chances of winning the race.

How do you go about making a odds line??

Please let me explain how its done.

Suppose you have a race where you give two horses equal chances to win the race.

Their chances of winning would therefore be 50% to win the race.

To calculate the odds for these two horses this is how its done.

100/50=2-1 ( the 1 is constant here)=1

The odds for the above two horses should be even money.

Now if one of the horses goes off at 50 cents to a dollar and the other horse’s odds drifts to 4 to 1 at post time which horse should you bet?. You are darn right if you say the 4 to 1 horse because he is an overlay. Now its entirely up to you to decide what represents an overlay price for you.

Some handicappers go for double their own  odds  line and some even go for 2.5 or three times their  odds line and a few I know demand 4 times their  odds line which in my opinion is a bit too much too ask.

Has it ever happened  to you when you come across a race where you say that such and such horse would lay over the field and win by 2, 3 or 4 lengths. I am sure it has. But he is the pick of the resident track handicapper and you also figure he will be the post time favorite and you just turn the page and totally forget about this race because you are not a favorite bettor.

Now assuming your handicapping is up to par and the horse indeed has a advantage over the rest of the field by over 3 or 4 lengths, the chances of this horse winning the race is a whopping 95%

Let us take a minute and calculate your own odds line for this horse.

100/95=1.05-1=.05

The odds for this horse should really be 5 cents on the dollar. In other words this horse should not pay more than $2.10 for a $2 win ticket.

Now if this horse is going off at even money at post time that would be 20 times your own  odds line.

Like the proverbial saying goes for horse players,

Knock down little old ladies in the line to make your bet on the even money over-layed favorite.

Have fun at the races.
  
  
« Last Edit: February 26, 2013, 04:58:25 PM by Sea Biscuit » Report to moderator   Logged
Sea Biscuit
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 7873

Member Since Dec 17-2006




Ignore
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2013, 04:51:23 PM »

Sometimes 4/5 is an overlay.  Sometime 10-1 is too short a price to take.

I agree with you what you say above Psycho dad.

 thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up
Report to moderator   Logged
FVRedhot
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1436




Ignore
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2013, 05:27:07 PM »

"There are certain guide lines you have to follow when betting the favorites.
You can't just bet every favorite and hope to come out alive in this game."

I kind of thought/hoped everyone here was a bit ahead of this point.  If not, yeah, you can't just bet every favorite and make money.  Same thing can be said about the 7.  The 5, on the other hand, I'm still testing.

Sorry, but I could not resist.

Report to moderator   Logged
Dolfan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 6400




Ignore
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2013, 06:14:05 PM »

Sometimes 4/5 is an overlay.  Sometime 10-1 is too short a price to take.

While I agree with this, 4-5 is still not bettable.  You have to win too often for 4-5 to be acceptable for any horse.  And if he   Now the 10-1 should be 20-1, perhaps so that is not bettable either.  If they're in the same race, you pass.  Plenty of other races at other tracks or on other nights.
Report to moderator   Logged

We can produce more wealth, but we cannot produce more time.  When we give someone our time, we actually give a portion of our life that we will never get back.
jdizigg
Guest

« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2013, 06:17:40 PM »

While I agree with this, 4-5 is still not bettable.  You have to win too often for 4-5 to be acceptable for any horse.  And if he   Now the 10-1 should be 20-1, perhaps so that is not bettable either.  If they're in the same race, you pass.  Plenty of other races at other tracks or on other nights.

Imo 4/5 os perfectly Fine in the right circumstances.
Report to moderator   Logged
burton
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 14485




Ignore
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2013, 06:34:09 PM »

I agree with Sea Biscuit in setting your own price or line on a horse or a race.
You want value.
A 10-1 shot is a bad bet if you think the horse has no shot.
A 4-5 is a great bet if you think the horse is 2-5.

The thing that gets everyone, at least on ocassion is chasing prices after a few losses or betting a horse that goes below the odds you set previously.
Setting your own price/odds will help you stay focused on value ( that you determined)and avoid betting horses with poor odds at the last minute becuase you want action.
Report to moderator   Logged
FVRedhot
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1436




Ignore
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2013, 06:56:53 PM »

Imo 4/5 os perfectly Fine in the right circumstances.

100% agree. 

Report to moderator   Logged
Dolfan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 6400




Ignore
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2013, 06:57:14 PM »

Imo 4/5 os perfectly Fine in the right circumstances.

And what are those circumstances?  Just an overlay?

I see only too often that 4-5 who should be 2-5 either spits it out in the stretch or gets bet to the 2-5 target number.  Not worth it.  

And the argument of the big bettor is worse because they're taking on even more risk.

But hey, without folks betting 3-5's I'd never get $13.60 on Casey Leonard last Friday!
Report to moderator   Logged

We can produce more wealth, but we cannot produce more time.  When we give someone our time, we actually give a portion of our life that we will never get back.
FVRedhot
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1436




Ignore
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2013, 07:09:35 PM »

The premise is that the person doing the wagering can accurately identify an overlay.  If, indeed, the 4/5 should be 2/5, he is a wonderful bet.

I Kill Time was beyond an awful bet at 2-1, let alone .70 on the dollar. 
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.078 seconds with 16 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Breeders' Cup
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy