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Author Topic: Chris Ryan / Iron Vow  (Read 3146 times)
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« Reply #50 on: March 01, 2013, 11:25:37 AM »

I'm still trying to understand why it was a bad thing to take a shot in a short field with an ILL bred who had conditions left  dunno

I noticed that Meza wasn't up and I thought it might indicate something,I didn't know if that was positive or negative.
The last numbers I saw were Meza had ridden 412 of Ryan's last 549 starters and Meza was on one for Ryan earlier in the day.
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brivolta
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« Reply #51 on: March 01, 2013, 11:55:56 AM »

I'm still trying to understand why it was a bad thing to take a shot in a short field with an ILL bred who had conditions left  dunno

I noticed that Meza wasn't up and I thought it might indicate something,I didn't know if that was positive or negative.
The last numbers I saw were Meza had ridden 412 of Ryan's last 549 starters and Meza was on one for Ryan earlier in the day.

You are a very well informed poster, which is why I'm baffled that you keep saying this.

An 8 year old's best days are usually behind them. The horse has two lifetime wins. So its "best days" clearly weren't much to write home about to begin with. Its last start was for $6250 claim tag in a NW3L condition and he got his head peeled and finished dead last, beaten 22 lengths. Not an open claiming race...a NW3L claiming race. That race was more than two full calendar years prior to this race. What would make anyone think this horse had any shot at all to win the race, or even be competitive?

Oh...and the horse's last win was 3 1/2 years ago.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2013, 12:01:56 PM by brivolta » Report to moderator   Logged
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« Reply #52 on: March 01, 2013, 12:15:52 PM »

I appreciate the compliment,thank you.
 Going under the assumption the office didn't ask for any help,if a horse is doing well in the morning why wouldn't someone take a shot at the bigger purse?
Small barn,horse doing well,go for the big purse.
Why not?
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #53 on: March 01, 2013, 12:16:03 PM »

You are a very well informed poster, which is why I'm baffled that you keep saying this.

An 8 year old's best days are usually behind them. The horse has two lifetime wins. So its "best days" clearly weren't much to write home about to begin with. Its last start was for $6250 claim tag in a NW3L condition and he got his head peeled and finished dead last, beaten 22 lengths. Not an open claiming race...a NW3L claiming race. That race was more than two full calendar years prior to this race. What would make anyone think this horse had any shot at all to win the race, or even be competitive?

Oh...and the horse's last win was 3 1/2 years ago.

On one hand, I totally get this post. I don't know what the purpose of placing the horse in that allowance race was -- for all the reasons you outlined above.

That said, in the end, isn't Ryan in a mess here whether the horse drops dead from a heart attack at the 3/16 pole of an allowance race or a N3L claiming race?

I mean, it wasn't too long ago that Bob Baffert had a horse in declining form, spotted him on the drop again where (IMO) he actually belonged at the time at the $12.5K level, and the horse was euthanized after the race. Tweebster.

I'm sure you'll recall just how VERY sympathetic people were to the fact that the horse died racing at an appropriate level, as opposed to in a stakes race he didn't belong in at all anymore.

Except that nobody was. He got raked over the coals for it to the point he actually had to issue a statement. As though Bob Baffert actually needed to defend himself from charges that he led over a horse to race that he actually thought was going to die.

My point, long story less long, is that even though I find the placement very odd (if I'm being generous, or mostly absurd, if I'm being more honest), it's not like having a horse in a good, reasonable spot drop dead on the track goes over well any time -- not even if you're Bob Baffert.

So it's kind of a lose-lose for Ryan in these after the fact discussions. If what happened last Saturday happens, then the placement is a big thing to talk about. If Bob Baffert places a horse with declining form in a mostly unsurprising spot at $12.5K and the horse dies, then the placement is a problem there too, because he dropped the horse like trainers do with unproductive runners every day.

Drop the horse? You're screwed and it's your fault he's dead. Hike the horse in a spot it doesn't belong? Still screwed, and still your fault he's dead.
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brivolta
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« Reply #54 on: March 01, 2013, 12:29:04 PM »

On one hand, I totally get this post. I don't know what the purpose of placing the horse in that allowance race was -- for all the reasons you outlined above.

That said, in the end, isn't Ryan in a mess here whether the horse drops dead from a heart attack at the 3/16 pole of an allowance race or a N3L claiming race?

I mean, it wasn't too long ago that Bob Baffert had a horse in declining form, spotted him on the drop again where (IMO) he actually belonged at the time at the $12.5K level, and the horse was euthanized after the race. Tweebster.

I'm sure you'll recall just how VERY sympathetic people were to the fact that the horse died racing at an appropriate level, as opposed to in a stakes race he didn't belong in at all anymore.

Except that nobody was. He got raked over the coals for it to the point he actually had to issue a statement. As though Bob Baffert actually needed to defend himself from charges that he led over a horse to race that he actually thought was going to die.

My point, long story less long, is that even though I find the placement very odd (if I'm being generous, or mostly absurd, if I'm being more honest), it's not like having a horse in a good, reasonable spot drop dead on the track goes over well any time -- not even if you're Bob Baffert.

So it's kind of a lose-lose for Ryan in these after the fact discussions. If what happened last Saturday happens, then the placement is a big thing to talk about. If Bob Baffert places a horse with declining form in a mostly unsurprising spot at $12.5K and the horse dies, then the placement is a problem there too, because he dropped the horse like trainers do with unproductive runners every day.

Drop the horse? You're screwed and it's your fault he's dead. Hike the horse in a spot it doesn't belong? Still screwed, and still your fault he's dead.

You are 100% correct. To be fair, earlier in the thread we had sort of established that whether the horse should have run or not was a separate question from where the horse ran. But you're absolutely right. People would have still said an 8 year old off a two year layoff should just be left alone and retired no matter what type of race the horse dropped dead in. And your Baffert comparison is a very good one.
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« Reply #55 on: March 01, 2013, 12:49:15 PM »

You are 100% correct. To be fair, earlier in the thread we had sort of established that whether the horse should have run or not was a separate question from where the horse ran. But you're absolutely right. People would have still said an 8 year old off a two year layoff should just be left alone and retired no matter what type of race the horse dropped dead in. And your Baffert comparison is a very good one.

I just want to be clear, too, that I know you don't think the fact that the race was an allowance is the reason the horse died. You've been clear on that, and I totally agree. I just saw we were still talking about it and threw in my two cents.

Whether the horse should've come back seems to be the question, but the fact that the horse had a heart attack is the big sticking point for me. I'll admit I'm no expert on racehorse physiology/biology/etc'ology, but isn't that just kind of a freak thing? Couldn't the horse have just as likely dropped dead from a heart attack during a morning work leading up to the race? I guess that all leads back to whether the horse should've come back in the first place or not. Poor numbers with cheap stock or not, I am 100% sure Chris Ryan knows more about racehorses in the flesh than I do. And I'm 100% sure that Chris Ryan wouldn't have sent over a horse with any worry that he'd just go over and die. Second-guessing it is easy, and sure, the layoff makes it even easier at that age.

It's such a rare thing when a horse just simply has a heart attack and drops dead on the racetrack during a race. I remember when it happened to Runaway Victor (maybe 2005-ish?) at Hawthorne. It just happened. The horse was sound, in decent form, and just died.

I get really invested in these Chicago horses, whether they're cheap or not, and though it sounds flippant, even factoring in the layoff, it strikes me as something that just happened. The argument can be made that if the horse never comes back, it never happens, but I don't find the entire situation ALL that extraordinary. Just sad.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2013, 12:51:06 PM by brianwspencer » Report to moderator   Logged
Chris Szulc
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« Reply #56 on: March 01, 2013, 01:05:58 PM »


 Going under the assumption the office didn't ask for any help,if a horse is doing well in the morning why wouldn't someone take a shot at the bigger purse?
Small barn,horse doing well,go for the big purse.
Why not?


Because winning the n1x would also take away the opportunity at a (what would be easy if truly able to win the n1x) lower n3L claimer. Taking advantage of conditions IMO...No way anyone was going to claim him at 5 or 10 so its a waste of condition. That is I think the main point Brivolta is missing, in addition to competition that he was mentioning.
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Chris Szulc
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« Reply #57 on: March 01, 2013, 01:08:43 PM »

And yes, to concur with Brian, if the horse hadn't died or even ran reasonably well, we wouldn't be partaking in these "after-the-fact discussions"
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« Reply #58 on: March 01, 2013, 01:14:39 PM »

Because winning the n1x would also take away the opportunity at a (what would be easy if truly able to win the n1x) lower n3L claimer. Taking advantage of conditions IMO...No way anyone was going to claim him at 5 or 10 so its a waste of condition. That is I think the main point Brivolta is missing, in addition to competition that he was mentioning.

I would rather win an allowance race than worry about saving a condition for a nickle race later on.
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Chris Szulc
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« Reply #59 on: March 01, 2013, 01:26:45 PM »

I would rather win an allowance race than worry about saving a condition for a nickle race later on.


We'll agree to disagree I'm sure, but if the horse was truly doing great why not blow through a cheap n3L first and get an easy purse for a work and then go in the n1x? Options are surely limited after an IL first level allowance. 2x's don't go very often at HAW (I think...) and open company can sometimes be night and day (maybe not at HAW spring though...).
Just IMO.
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« Reply #60 on: March 01, 2013, 01:36:03 PM »

We'll agree to disagree I'm sure, but if the horse was truly doing great why not blow through a cheap n3L first and get an easy purse for a work and then go in the n1x? Options are surely limited after an IL first level allowance. 2x's don't go very often at HAW (I think...) and open company can sometimes be night and day (maybe not at HAW spring though...).
Just IMO.

I understand what you're saying.
I'm looking at it from the perspective of a small barn with
 "our horse is coming back from issues and he's doing well so let's take a shot with him. Maybe grab a check or if we get lucky win the race"
Was it an ambitious placement of the horse...yes....outlandish...no
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« Reply #61 on: March 01, 2013, 02:00:15 PM »

I just want to be clear, too, that I know you don't think the fact that the race was an allowance is the reason the horse died. You've been clear on that, and I totally agree. I just saw we were still talking about it and threw in my two cents.

Whether the horse should've come back seems to be the question, but the fact that the horse had a heart attack is the big sticking point for me. I'll admit I'm no expert on racehorse physiology/biology/etc'ology, but isn't that just kind of a freak thing? Couldn't the horse have just as likely dropped dead from a heart attack during a morning work leading up to the race? I guess that all leads back to whether the horse should've come back in the first place or not. Poor numbers with cheap stock or not, I am 100% sure Chris Ryan knows more about racehorses in the flesh than I do. And I'm 100% sure that Chris Ryan wouldn't have sent over a horse with any worry that he'd just go over and die. Second-guessing it is easy, and sure, the layoff makes it even easier at that age.

It's such a rare thing when a horse just simply has a heart attack and drops dead on the racetrack during a race. I remember when it happened to Runaway Victor (maybe 2005-ish?) at Hawthorne. It just happened. The horse was sound, in decent form, and just died.

I get really invested in these Chicago horses, whether they're cheap or not, and though it sounds flippant, even factoring in the layoff, it strikes me as something that just happened. The argument can be made that if the horse never comes back, it never happens, but I don't find the entire situation ALL that extraordinary. Just sad.

Yes, it was definitely a freak thing. Didn't a horse collapse in the winner's circle at Arlington this summer from a heart attack? These things can happen at any time. And while we may debate whether or not the horse should have/shouldn't have raced and at what level it should/shouldn't have raced, it's important that we acknowledge that this could have easily happened galloping in the morning.
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« Reply #62 on: March 01, 2013, 03:31:09 PM »

6K, 2K, 1K, 500 vs 18K, 6K, 3K, 1.5K - the difference 1st thru 4th.  If I have a healthy IL bred who has been working well with a potential 6 horse field, the ALW is a nobrainer.  We had a mare that competed 8-10K claiming out of state last winter, and won a state bred n1x first time out in Mch. 

Regardless of layoff, if the horse was fit I'd take my chances getting a piece of a 30K pot in a small field vs a 10K pot in a larger field. Take advantage of conditions. 
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« Reply #63 on: June 01, 2013, 04:35:09 PM »

Ballistic Tim is a MSW on Wednesday. Never hit the board in 10 lifetime starts, and last out was beat 15 lengths in maiden 15k claim.  head shake
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« Reply #64 on: June 05, 2013, 06:10:15 PM »

Ballistic Tim is a MSW on Wednesday. Never hit the board in 10 lifetime starts, and last out was beat 15 lengths in maiden 15k claim.  head shake

Went off at 113/1 and was last at every call.
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« Reply #65 on: June 05, 2013, 08:39:22 PM »

So far this year Chris is 36 0-1-4 $14180.00, how in the hell do you make a living like that?  Better yet, how do you find anyone crazy enough to let you train their horse?
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« Reply #66 on: June 05, 2013, 09:19:30 PM »

So far this year Chris is 36 0-1-4 $14180.00, how in the hell do you make a living like that?  Better yet, how do you find anyone crazy enough to let you train their horse?

The last question is what baffles me. It's one thing if you're training for yourself but to have owners with the stats she has is puzzling
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