Chris Ryan / Iron Vow

[The Turf Monster]

What was the purpose of that yesterday?  A 1.7% trainer sends out an 8 year old horse that last ran for a price of $6750 in 2011 and from what I could tell, the horse dropped dead in the stretch

[brivolta]

I don't know anything abut the trainer or horse but there are a lot of times when a tragedy like this happens that you look back and see it was an accident waiting to happen. This is one of them. So sad. Does anyone review situations like these and look at suspensions or revoking a trainers license? Not saying this trainer should lose their license, but I'm wondering if this stuff even gets reviewed.

[The Turf Monster]

I dont understand the motive to run that horse, but im sure it would be hard to understand why a 1.7% trainer does anything.  Im sure that claiming horses, doing nothing with them, and running them back at the same price 2 weeks later would make somebody a 7-10% trainer

[jgp]

The horse has had a decent career with some decent works leading up to the race.  It sucks that it happened, but it happens.  Im not sure you could blame anyone for what happened.

[jgp]

On another note, did anyone see the elderly man fall down outside yesterday?  He was bleeding pretty good, my buddies girlfriend fell in the same spot 2 years back and broke her wrist.  I wish they would get rid of those small steps, the edges are painted yellow, yet dangerous if your not paying attention.

[The Turf Monster]

The horse had 2 lifetime wins and none since 2009, i wouldnt call that a 'decent career'

[Mr_Ed]

On another note, did anyone see the elderly man fall down outside yesterday?  He was bleeding pretty good, my buddies girlfriend fell in the same spot 2 years back and broke her wrist.  I wish they would get rid of those small steps, the edges are painted yellow, yet dangerous if your not paying attention.

No doubt that poor man was an 'ADW' until they took it away.......forcing him to unsafe track conditions.

[Mary Ann]

If you haven't heard about this, they are talking about using PP's to help predict racetrack breakdowns to prevent them.  A portion of the following article:

"You are probably already familiar with the spectrum of data available in typical horse racing past performances. There is a truly impressive amount of information embedded in racing charts and running lines. And plenty more that could be derived through further analysis.

Cutting to the chase: Can we use readily available data from racing charts to predict which horses are at risk of breaking down? I think we probably can and will explain how.

First, a little about predictive modeling in general. Predictive analyses aim to accomplish quite a bit more than just describe or explore data. The objective is to develop an algorithm that can predict something in the real world. Sometimes predictive analyses will shine a light on underlying causal factors too. But that's just a welcome bonus. What we want to know is does X predict Y. Because if it does then we can go out into the world and measure X and expect to find Y, with the assumption that finding Y is an important and valuable thing to do."

http://thorotrends.com/news-and-views/50-blog/109-big-data-and-death-at-americas-racetracks

[n3dsports]

Couple of dumb questions:

1- If a horse goes down on the track and has to be put down is their any insurance that helps a trainer with cost?

2- Wouldn't jockeys see a horse like this and want to stay away from it?

Thanks

[brivolta]

Couple of dumb questions:

1- If a horse goes down on the track and has to be put down is their any insurance that helps a trainer with cost?

2- Wouldn't jockeys see a horse like this and want to stay away from it?

Thanks

Regarding your second question, some jockeys have to scramble to get whatever mounts they can. Te established guys most likely wanted nothing to do with this horse.

Also, I hadn't even realized this was an allowance race. This trainer took an 8 year old with 2 lifetime wins and more than a year off and put him in an allowance race? Shouldn't someone review whether or not this trainer should have a license

[carl baldwin]

Iron Vow (IL)

CH , G, foaled February 18, 2005

( Broken Vow - My Mom Joanie, by Iron Courage)
Connections as of last Start:
Jockey:    Carlos Montalvo
Trainer:    Chris A. Ryan
Owner:    Suzanne Barrett
Breeder:    Richard Friedman

2013 Statistics:

    Starts: 1
    Firsts: 0
    Seconds: 0
    Thirds: 0
    Earnings: $300
    Earnings Per Start: $300
    Highest Equibase Speed Figure 0

Career Statistics:

    Starts: 29
    Firsts: 2
    Seconds: 2
    Thirds: 4
    Earnings: $67,641
    Earnings Per Start: $2,332
    Highest 99

[nmslim]

The hardest thing to remember is as much as people become attached,horses are livestock,and livestock dies and you cannot predict it.

[brivolta]

The hardest thing to remember is as much as people become attached,horses are livestock,and livestock dies and you cannot predict it.

True. But you also can minimize the chance of incident by not entering an 8 year old, with two lifetime wins, who hasn't raced since 2011, into an allowance race.

[beobob]

Unfortunately many in our industry (and every other industry), see ethical behavior and $$$ as competing forces.  I don't know the circumstances of this particular instance, and we should not automatically jump to the worst possible conclusion.  However, unless we get to the place where the potential monetary loss for ALL the connections of a horse is equal to or greater than the potential gain for putting a horse at risk, it will never stop.

[dano-themano]

The allowance was a stretch.  I saw the connections after the race and they were devastated. 

[brivolta]

The allowance was a stretch.  I saw the connections after the race and they were devastated. 

A "stretch"? That's awfully generous

[The Turf Monster]

The type of race isnt what killed the horse, it was running its own race from the start

[brivolta]

The type of race isnt what killed the horse, it was running its own race from the start

Understood. I'm just questioning the judgment is all.

[NYRA 792]

the horse didn't fit the conditions?

[brivolta]

the horse didn't fit the conditions?

The horse "met" the conditions by having never won a first level allowance race. I wouldn't say the horse "fit" the conditions.

[NYRA 792]

Illinois breds jump between open claimers and Ill/Alw races often. I don't see any issues on where this horse was placed.

[brivolta]

Illinois breds jump between open claimers and Ill/Alw races often. I don't see any issues on where this horse was placed.

You don't see any issues with taking an EIGHT year old horse with TWO lifetime wins that hadn't raced in more than TWO full calendar years and running him in an allowance race? Never mind the fact that his last race (more than two years ago) he finished dead last in a $6500 claiming race.

Oh...and the horse went off at 50/1 in a 7 horse field. So apparently everyone else thought he was poorly placed as well.

[NYRA 792]

No, not at all. 

[brivolta]

No, not at all. 

Okay then. And to be clear, I'm not saying that's what killed the horse. I'm just saying it seems like a terrible spot to place him.

[NYRA 792]

Maybe the office asked for some help making the race go,who knows?
Maybe since it appeared the horse had been training well you take your shot for the bigger purse since you're eligible for the race.

[cicerokid35]

Horse should have never raced again...stidham to Ryan and 2 year layoff and you don't think anything is wrong with that situation? C'mon man!

[NYRA 792]

Horse should have never raced again...stidham to Ryan and 2 year layoff and you don't think anything is wrong with that situation? C'mon man!

Whether or not the horse should be racing is not the same issue as to what race the horse was entered in.

[brivolta]

Whether or not the horse should be racing is not the same issue as to what race the horse was entered in.

True. They are two separate issues. It's possible that the horse was fit and just had a freak bleeding incident or something. So I will give the trainer the benefit of the doubt that MAYBE the horse should have been given the chance to race. I'm not in the barn, so I don't know.

What I do know is that when I look at the PP's, I can't see one single reason to enter the horse in an allowance race...unless it was at Beulah.

[cicerokid35]

I have no issue with a trainer using an Alw race for a prep race off the layoff. I'm just saying he should have came back to racing

[NYRA 792]

True. They are two separate issues. It's possible that the horse was fit and just had a freak bleeding incident or something. So I will give the trainer the benefit of the doubt that MAYBE the horse should have been given the chance to race. I'm not in the barn, so I don't know.

What I do know is that when I look at the PP's, I can't see one single reason to enter the horse in an allowance race...unless it was at Beulah.

The first horse I owned was an Ill bred that was trounced for a low- level tag and his first race back from an injury  and lengthy layoff we put him into his allowance condition. Ill breds bounce around between low- level caliming races and allowance races.
 Do you know if the office asked for some help with the race in question?

[mottoman]

This happens all the time folks, don't forget he was cleared by the vet! 

[brivolta]

The first horse I owned was an Ill bred that was trounced for a low- level tag and his first race back from an injury  and lengthy layoff we put him into his allowance condition. Ill breds bounce around between low- level caliming races and allowance races.
 Do you know if the office asked for some help with the race in question?

Given the field size I would guess they did. But I'm not sure what relevance that has. I doubt they called Chris Ryan and asked for this specific horse.

NYRA, We just have a disagreement here. No harm, no foul. If we were just talking about one o the factors I mentioned I would be more inclined to agree with you. When you take them all together I just don't see how someone can place that horse in that race in good conscience. What we can agree on is that it likely had nothing to do with his death.

[NYRA 792]

It has been my experience that when you  have a small barn and are asked to help,it's a good idea to help out.
Even if that were not the case in this instance,there is nothing unusual about the placement of this horse. Ambitious maybe but when you have an Ill bred "with conditions" many opt to take a shot at the purse.

[jgp]

it was a terrible spot for the horse, but he seemed to be sound.  I'm guessing it was a heart attack or aneurysm, but thats pure speculation.  It happens in this sport, I'm just glad he didn't suffer.  He also had an apprentice up, he was so far back Im curious if a veteran jock what have pulled him up. 

[NYRA 792]

it was a terrible spot for the horse, but he seemed to be sound.  I'm guessing it was a heart attack or aneurysm, but thats pure speculation.  It happens in this sport, I'm just glad he didn't suffer.  He also had an apprentice up, he was so far back Im curious if a veteran jock what have pulled him up. 

Montalvo is an apprentice?

[jgp]

yep, sorry, I thought Esquivel was riding.  Memory is shot.

[zimms1948]

Chris Ryan takes excellent care of her horses.
You and your opinions need to go to school and get an education.
 She may have been hustled to go in that spot or the horse might have been in need of a race.
NO ONE is cavalier about a horse dropping dead.
You think an 8 yr old is ancient.??
Catch up on the facts, look things up.

[brivolta]

Chris Ryan takes excellent care of her horses.

I'm assuming you're talking to me. It would help if you would quote the person you're talking to. I never said any thing about how she cares for her horses and I don't believe anyone else on here did either.
 
You and your opinions need to go to school and get an education.

It appears you are the one who needs to go back to school and learn how to read for comprehension.

 She may have been hustled to go in that spot or the horse might have been in need of a race.

The horse may have "needed a race?" What...and she was afraid to drop him in for a tag because she would lose him? Give me a break. They write NW3L races every day at Hawthorne. Also I said that given the horse had been off for 2+ years, it seems like a questionable place to put the horse.

NO ONE is cavalier about a horse dropping dead.

No one suggested they were. I also said multiple times that where the horse was placed most likely had nothing to do with its death.

You think an 8 yr old is ancient.??

I did not say that because the horse was 8 years old it shouldn't be running. I used the horse's age to give perspective to just how lightly accomplished this horse was, when someone else suggested the horse had a "decent career". Two wins for a three year old is good. Two wins for an 8 year old is not. No???

Catch up on the facts, look things up.


Regarding "facts", the only facts that are available are the ones that I and others laid out about the horse's past performances. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.

Responses inserted...
 

[Who Dat]

If she placed her horse in this race because she was "hustled", after a two year layoff with three published works then she doesn't take care of her horses.

[Who Dat]

Why hasn't anyone talked about the owner?   Susan Barrett ?  Iron Vow was "retired" two years ago.  He was owned by Barrett Racing Stable then which was composed of many investors.  The horse ran in her name this time but there were many blank faces walking towards the site of the collapse on Sat; did she resell partnerships and bring him out of retirement ?    Maybe that would explain the placement.

[brivolta]

If she placed her horse in this race because she was "hustled", after a two year layoff with three published works then she doesn't take care of her horses.

Touche

[NYRA 792]

If she placed her horse in this race because she was "hustled", after a two year layoff with three published works then she doesn't take care of her horses.

 

[The Turf Monster]

Somebody has to know this owner and/or trainer,  i still dont understand the motivation to run this particular horse

[koolis24]

Chris knows where to place her horses... some owners can be hard to deal with. This horse was sound and healthy going into the race.

[jfc08]

Chris knows where to place her horses...

I FIND THAT HARD TO BELIEVE !!


Chris A. Ryan


2013 Statistics:
Starts: 4
Firsts: 0
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $1,715
Avg. Earnings Per Start: $429
Career Statistics:
Starts: 1,128
Firsts: 54
Seconds: 63
Thirds: 98
Earnings: $858,086
Avg. Earnings Per Start: $761
2013   4   0   0   1   $1,715
2012   58   1   4   9   $43,834
2011   63   2   0   3   $29,800
2010   47   2   1   9   $35,208
2009   56   1   8   7   $47,280
2008   51   1   3   4   $24,830
2007   42   2   1   3   $22,800
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=114562

[brivolta]

Chris knows where to place her horses... some owners can be hard to deal with. This horse was sound and healthy going into the race.

This is a ridiculous statement.

[Daisy Girl]

Why hasn't anyone talked about the owner?   Susan Barrett ?  Iron Vow was "retired" two years ago.  He was owned by Barrett Racing Stable then which was composed of many investors.  The horse ran in her name this time but there were many blank faces walking towards the site of the collapse on Sat; did she resell partnerships and bring him out of retirement ?    Maybe that would explain the placement.

The blank faces walking around were Iron Vow's old investors who came to the track to watch him race. Nobody was out to try and make a quick buck. It was giving a healthy, sound horse one more chance.  He had a massive heart attack. Its a judgement call where to place a horse, it wasn't done out of greed.

[brivolta]

The blank faces walking around were Iron Vow's old investors who came to the track to watch him race. Nobody was out to try and make a quick buck. It was giving a healthy, sound horse one more chance.  He had a massive heart attack. Its a judgement call where to place a horse, it wasn't done out of greed.

I don't think anyone had bad intentions with this horse. And I believe that this most likely would have happened no matter what kind of race he was in. But if the highlighted part is really true, why not put him in a spot where he actually had a chance? A quick look at the condition book offered the following:

$5,000 NW3 Feb 17, Mar 3

[g3tPWNed_24]

1 thing that everyone seems to be overlooking in this thread is the fact that nick(meza) wasnt riding this one, he pretty much gets on everything for ryan in the morning and afternoon

[Scav]

The one thing that I'll say is that IMO, bringing back an 8 year old horse with LIMITED ability is quesitonable at best.

[NYRA 792]

I'm still trying to understand why it was a bad thing to take a shot in a short field with an ILL bred who had conditions left 

I noticed that Meza wasn't up and I thought it might indicate something,I didn't know if that was positive or negative.
The last numbers I saw were Meza had ridden 412 of Ryan's last 549 starters and Meza was on one for Ryan earlier in the day.

[brivolta]

I'm still trying to understand why it was a bad thing to take a shot in a short field with an ILL bred who had conditions left  

I noticed that Meza wasn't up and I thought it might indicate something,I didn't know if that was positive or negative.
The last numbers I saw were Meza had ridden 412 of Ryan's last 549 starters and Meza was on one for Ryan earlier in the day.

You are a very well informed poster, which is why I'm baffled that you keep saying this.

An 8 year old's best days are usually behind them. The horse has two lifetime wins. So its "best days" clearly weren't much to write home about to begin with. Its last start was for $6250 claim tag in a NW3L condition and he got his head peeled and finished dead last, beaten 22 lengths. Not an open claiming race...a NW3L claiming race. That race was more than two full calendar years prior to this race. What would make anyone think this horse had any shot at all to win the race, or even be competitive?

Oh...and the horse's last win was 3 1/2 years ago.

[NYRA 792]

I appreciate the compliment,thank you.
 Going under the assumption the office didn't ask for any help,if a horse is doing well in the morning why wouldn't someone take a shot at the bigger purse?
Small barn,horse doing well,go for the big purse.
Why not?

[brianwspencer]

You are a very well informed poster, which is why I'm baffled that you keep saying this.

An 8 year old's best days are usually behind them. The horse has two lifetime wins. So its "best days" clearly weren't much to write home about to begin with. Its last start was for $6250 claim tag in a NW3L condition and he got his head peeled and finished dead last, beaten 22 lengths. Not an open claiming race...a NW3L claiming race. That race was more than two full calendar years prior to this race. What would make anyone think this horse had any shot at all to win the race, or even be competitive?

Oh...and the horse's last win was 3 1/2 years ago.

On one hand, I totally get this post. I don't know what the purpose of placing the horse in that allowance race was -- for all the reasons you outlined above.

That said, in the end, isn't Ryan in a mess here whether the horse drops dead from a heart attack at the 3/16 pole of an allowance race or a N3L claiming race?

I mean, it wasn't too long ago that Bob Baffert had a horse in declining form, spotted him on the drop again where (IMO) he actually belonged at the time at the $12.5K level, and the horse was euthanized after the race. Tweebster.

I'm sure you'll recall just how VERY sympathetic people were to the fact that the horse died racing at an appropriate level, as opposed to in a stakes race he didn't belong in at all anymore.

Except that nobody was. He got raked over the coals for it to the point he actually had to issue a statement. As though Bob Baffert actually needed to defend himself from charges that he led over a horse to race that he actually thought was going to die.

My point, long story less long, is that even though I find the placement very odd (if I'm being generous, or mostly absurd, if I'm being more honest), it's not like having a horse in a good, reasonable spot drop dead on the track goes over well any time -- not even if you're Bob Baffert.

So it's kind of a lose-lose for Ryan in these after the fact discussions. If what happened last Saturday happens, then the placement is a big thing to talk about. If Bob Baffert places a horse with declining form in a mostly unsurprising spot at $12.5K and the horse dies, then the placement is a problem there too, because he dropped the horse like trainers do with unproductive runners every day.

Drop the horse? You're screwed and it's your fault he's dead. Hike the horse in a spot it doesn't belong? Still screwed, and still your fault he's dead.

[brivolta]

On one hand, I totally get this post. I don't know what the purpose of placing the horse in that allowance race was -- for all the reasons you outlined above.

That said, in the end, isn't Ryan in a mess here whether the horse drops dead from a heart attack at the 3/16 pole of an allowance race or a N3L claiming race?

I mean, it wasn't too long ago that Bob Baffert had a horse in declining form, spotted him on the drop again where (IMO) he actually belonged at the time at the $12.5K level, and the horse was euthanized after the race. Tweebster.

I'm sure you'll recall just how VERY sympathetic people were to the fact that the horse died racing at an appropriate level, as opposed to in a stakes race he didn't belong in at all anymore.

Except that nobody was. He got raked over the coals for it to the point he actually had to issue a statement. As though Bob Baffert actually needed to defend himself from charges that he led over a horse to race that he actually thought was going to die.

My point, long story less long, is that even though I find the placement very odd (if I'm being generous, or mostly absurd, if I'm being more honest), it's not like having a horse in a good, reasonable spot drop dead on the track goes over well any time -- not even if you're Bob Baffert.

So it's kind of a lose-lose for Ryan in these after the fact discussions. If what happened last Saturday happens, then the placement is a big thing to talk about. If Bob Baffert places a horse with declining form in a mostly unsurprising spot at $12.5K and the horse dies, then the placement is a problem there too, because he dropped the horse like trainers do with unproductive runners every day.

Drop the horse? You're screwed and it's your fault he's dead. Hike the horse in a spot it doesn't belong? Still screwed, and still your fault he's dead.

You are 100% correct. To be fair, earlier in the thread we had sort of established that whether the horse should have run or not was a separate question from where the horse ran. But you're absolutely right. People would have still said an 8 year old off a two year layoff should just be left alone and retired no matter what type of race the horse dropped dead in. And your Baffert comparison is a very good one.

[brianwspencer]

You are 100% correct. To be fair, earlier in the thread we had sort of established that whether the horse should have run or not was a separate question from where the horse ran. But you're absolutely right. People would have still said an 8 year old off a two year layoff should just be left alone and retired no matter what type of race the horse dropped dead in. And your Baffert comparison is a very good one.

I just want to be clear, too, that I know you don't think the fact that the race was an allowance is the reason the horse died. You've been clear on that, and I totally agree. I just saw we were still talking about it and threw in my two cents.

Whether the horse should've come back seems to be the question, but the fact that the horse had a heart attack is the big sticking point for me. I'll admit I'm no expert on racehorse physiology/biology/etc'ology, but isn't that just kind of a freak thing? Couldn't the horse have just as likely dropped dead from a heart attack during a morning work leading up to the race? I guess that all leads back to whether the horse should've come back in the first place or not. Poor numbers with cheap stock or not, I am 100% sure Chris Ryan knows more about racehorses in the flesh than I do. And I'm 100% sure that Chris Ryan wouldn't have sent over a horse with any worry that he'd just go over and die. Second-guessing it is easy, and sure, the layoff makes it even easier at that age.

It's such a rare thing when a horse just simply has a heart attack and drops dead on the racetrack during a race. I remember when it happened to Runaway Victor (maybe 2005-ish?) at Hawthorne. It just happened. The horse was sound, in decent form, and just died.

I get really invested in these Chicago horses, whether they're cheap or not, and though it sounds flippant, even factoring in the layoff, it strikes me as something that just happened. The argument can be made that if the horse never comes back, it never happens, but I don't find the entire situation ALL that extraordinary. Just sad.

[Chris Szulc]

 Going under the assumption the office didn't ask for any help,if a horse is doing well in the morning why wouldn't someone take a shot at the bigger purse?
Small barn,horse doing well,go for the big purse.
Why not?

Because winning the n1x would also take away the opportunity at a (what would be easy if truly able to win the n1x) lower n3L claimer. Taking advantage of conditions IMO...No way anyone was going to claim him at 5 or 10 so its a waste of condition. That is I think the main point Brivolta is missing, in addition to competition that he was mentioning.

[Chris Szulc]

And yes, to concur with Brian, if the horse hadn't died or even ran reasonably well, we wouldn't be partaking in these "after-the-fact discussions"

[NYRA 792]

Because winning the n1x would also take away the opportunity at a (what would be easy if truly able to win the n1x) lower n3L claimer. Taking advantage of conditions IMO...No way anyone was going to claim him at 5 or 10 so its a waste of condition. That is I think the main point Brivolta is missing, in addition to competition that he was mentioning.

I would rather win an allowance race than worry about saving a condition for a nickle race later on.

[Chris Szulc]

I would rather win an allowance race than worry about saving a condition for a nickle race later on.

We'll agree to disagree I'm sure, but if the horse was truly doing great why not blow through a cheap n3L first and get an easy purse for a work and then go in the n1x? Options are surely limited after an IL first level allowance. 2x's don't go very often at HAW (I think...) and open company can sometimes be night and day (maybe not at HAW spring though...).
Just IMO.

[NYRA 792]

We'll agree to disagree I'm sure, but if the horse was truly doing great why not blow through a cheap n3L first and get an easy purse for a work and then go in the n1x? Options are surely limited after an IL first level allowance. 2x's don't go very often at HAW (I think...) and open company can sometimes be night and day (maybe not at HAW spring though...).
Just IMO.

I understand what you're saying.
I'm looking at it from the perspective of a small barn with
 "our horse is coming back from issues and he's doing well so let's take a shot with him. Maybe grab a check or if we get lucky win the race"
Was it an ambitious placement of the horse...yes....outlandish...no

[brivolta]

I just want to be clear, too, that I know you don't think the fact that the race was an allowance is the reason the horse died. You've been clear on that, and I totally agree. I just saw we were still talking about it and threw in my two cents.

Whether the horse should've come back seems to be the question, but the fact that the horse had a heart attack is the big sticking point for me. I'll admit I'm no expert on racehorse physiology/biology/etc'ology, but isn't that just kind of a freak thing? Couldn't the horse have just as likely dropped dead from a heart attack during a morning work leading up to the race? I guess that all leads back to whether the horse should've come back in the first place or not. Poor numbers with cheap stock or not, I am 100% sure Chris Ryan knows more about racehorses in the flesh than I do. And I'm 100% sure that Chris Ryan wouldn't have sent over a horse with any worry that he'd just go over and die. Second-guessing it is easy, and sure, the layoff makes it even easier at that age.

It's such a rare thing when a horse just simply has a heart attack and drops dead on the racetrack during a race. I remember when it happened to Runaway Victor (maybe 2005-ish?) at Hawthorne. It just happened. The horse was sound, in decent form, and just died.

I get really invested in these Chicago horses, whether they're cheap or not, and though it sounds flippant, even factoring in the layoff, it strikes me as something that just happened. The argument can be made that if the horse never comes back, it never happens, but I don't find the entire situation ALL that extraordinary. Just sad.

Yes, it was definitely a freak thing. Didn't a horse collapse in the winner's circle at Arlington this summer from a heart attack? These things can happen at any time. And while we may debate whether or not the horse should have/shouldn't have raced and at what level it should/shouldn't have raced, it's important that we acknowledge that this could have easily happened galloping in the morning.

[beobob]

6K, 2K, 1K, 500 vs 18K, 6K, 3K, 1.5K - the difference 1st thru 4th.  If I have a healthy IL bred who has been working well with a potential 6 horse field, the ALW is a nobrainer.  We had a mare that competed 8-10K claiming out of state last winter, and won a state bred n1x first time out in Mch. 

Regardless of layoff, if the horse was fit I'd take my chances getting a piece of a 30K pot in a small field vs a 10K pot in a larger field. Take advantage of conditions.