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Author Topic: The turf rail at Arlington  (Read 3529 times)
bellsbendboy
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2006, 06:57:51 PM »

Fair enough Al.

Hope you have the DRF for last Saturday, Stephen Foster day, if so this will make more sense.

First acknowledge, that some horses are deep closers and prefer turf.  Then, for now, accept this premise; when the race is on the hedge (deep) closers enjoy a faster pace and do not lose as much ground around the turns.  Accordingly, when the rail is out, the pace is slower (horses run slower around turns).  This leaves the closers with a tough challenge; close into a slow pace, while losing ground.  Basic enough.

The Regret was contested Saturday and we will spotlight 3yo filly NOTTAWASAGA.  She is a 700K yearling in good hands.

Sept.   Woodbine.  Huge come from behind try giving up big weight with the rail way out.  She had to give both fillies that beat her ten pounds each (apprentices) and rallied stoutly with the rail out but hung and probably bled.  Future SW with any luck and a filly to watch.  Surely, when she gets the hedge she wins!!

Nov     Dirt!   First Lasix.   No interest.

Dec.  Calder.  Hedge.  Easy come from behind score.  Almost certainly blows away 1X fillies when she gets the shrubs again! 

Jan 1st     Calder.  100K stake.    Tough, tough spot on only thirteen days rest against MSW J'Ray. Mild Gain, no factor.

Feb   Gulfstream  1X    Rail out.  Mild gain finishing 7th.

March    Two nice works  3/20 and 3/27.  Then a modest 3/8's April 4 at Keeneland.

April 7th   1X   Rail out.  No rally.

April 23rd    1X   Hedge   Tons best getting us a juicy win price and hitting a four digit pick 4.

In conclusion, most are not this textbook, but the tenet works both ways.  Anotherwords a speed horse that has been on the hedge, then gets the rail can be double tough.  The midwest AP, CD, FG, Kee, etc is a goldmine for this angle. Hope this helps, if not I can go into much more depth.  BBB
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alydar66
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2006, 11:46:39 PM »

I dont understand why the pace would be faster because the turns are tighter. A 1/4 or 1/2 mile is still a 1/4 or 1/2 mile no matter where the rail is placed.  Please explain the logic behind the pace argument.
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2006, 07:16:49 AM »

Alydar   When the race is on the hedge the starting gate moves up the stretch.  Now you have a much longer run to the turn, horses run faster on straights, hence the quicker splits that closers require.

Al:   Apologize for the redboarding example but I post all my bets before hand on a forum somewhere.  That bet was at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate  Post #  7016  BBB
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2006, 08:55:53 AM »


Al:   Apologize for the redboarding example but I post all my bets before hand on a forum somewhere.  That bet was at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate  Post #  7016  BBB

I don't mind redboarding.
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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
childewood
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« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2006, 04:55:52 PM »

If final fractions are important in turf racing, how are "about" distance final fractions figured?
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alydar66
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« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2006, 09:18:33 PM »

The rail was moved to lane 1 today at Arlington.
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2006, 07:08:15 PM »

Generally, tracks race on the hedge weekends.  Get a wallet sized calendar, if the horse raced during the week assume speed was tough, if on a weekend look for closers.  BBB
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alydar66
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« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2006, 07:29:19 PM »

Wheres Bellsbendboy?  Yesterday the turf rail was moved to 10 feet inside lane one.  I believe that might be the farthest it can be moved in.  According to Bells theory, closers should be rolling home. Instead speed is holding well.  Whats going on Bellsbendboy?
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