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Author Topic: The turf rail at Arlington  (Read 3531 times)
bellsbendboy
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« on: June 15, 2006, 07:31:01 AM »

One of the best handicapping angles is keeping a record of the turf rail.  Speed holds very well when it is out, and closers enjoy the race being on the hedge.

As a Churchill player the settings are simple; hedge, 15feet and 22feet.

At Arlington, it is not as simple. For instance; lane 2, 6 feet out.  Can one of you Chicago players explain the movements. Thanks. BBB   
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2006, 11:46:12 AM »

One of the best handicapping angles is keeping a record of the turf rail.  Speed holds very well when it is out, and closers enjoy the race being on the hedge.

As a Churchill player the settings are simple; hedge, 15feet and 22feet.

At Arlington, it is not as simple. For instance; lane 2, 6 feet out.  Can one of you Chicago players explain the movements. Thanks. BBB   

To be quite honest, i pay no attention to where the rail is on the turf course.

Since you posted it. could you give specific examples as speed hosses that were overlays when the rail was out at Churchill and give us specific examples
of an overlaid closer when the rail was at the hedge.

 clocker biggestal
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2006, 02:12:11 PM »

Speed holding better when the rail is out is handicapping 101 for grass races.
Even novice players should know this.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2006, 03:11:06 PM »

Speed holding better when the rail is out is handicapping 101 for grass races.
Even novice players should know this.

I do quite well with no regard to the turf rail position. Please cite examples of this supposed common knowledge

 clocker biggestal
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2006, 04:02:25 PM »

I agree it makes no differance.  why don't you guys measure the wind? over analysis at it's best.  I would think the length of the turf and it's firmness makes more of a differance. 
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2006, 04:45:45 PM »

One of the best handicapping angles is keeping a record of the turf rail.  Speed holds very well when it is out, and closers enjoy the race being on the hedge.

As a Churchill player the settings are simple; hedge, 15feet and 22feet.

At Arlington, it is not as simple. For instance; lane 2, 6 feet out.  Can one of you Chicago players explain the movements. Thanks. BBB   

Welcome to the forum BBB. Are you the same who posts at DMTC?

I hope I have this right. The Arlington turf course is divided into six "lanes", each about 15 feet wide. Lane 1 down by the rail, lane 6 out in the middle. A rail positioned at exactly lane 3 would be noted as rail at lane 3, and the race would be an exact distance. If they put the rail in between two exact lanes to save wear and tear on the grass it might be lane 3 plus six feet, which would mean six feet further out than lane 3. Then the race becomes an "about" race. I've even see the rare race with the rail positioned way down almost on the infield, inside lane 1! That was noted as "lane 1 minus 8 feet".

I disagree with the posters who say the configuration makes no difference. When the rail is down low the starting gate moves way back up the stretch, so there's more straight run to the first turn, and the turns are tighter. On the other hand, the course is big and wide for any way outside horses. When the rail is way out there's a very short run to the first turn, especially at one mile, and the turns are long and sweeping. The course is also very narrow. With the lane down low there's more straight running and less turn; with it out wide there's more running on turns.

Any race that's some feet off a lane and "about" you don't know exactly how far they ran in relationship to any other race at that exact distance or about distance at the same track! That might mean something if you are the type who pays attention to time or makes his own speed figures.

The main way I use today's lane placement information is to determine what chance speed horses in outside posts have of clearing and getting down to the rail before getting hung wide around that first turn. Someone more diligent than me could do a lot more.
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2006, 05:19:51 PM »

Cashed more than a few tickets based upon rail placement.
Keep your heads in the sand boys  Grin
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2006, 05:23:24 PM »

Excellent clockerterry!  I am, the same poster as on the dmtc site. I could have used you over the last couple of weeks or so, on that site, when I tried to explain how the configuration affected the outcome.

I agree with the other poster that it is handicapping 101!  The amount of bettors that are unaware is staggering, yet most handicapping services are also in the dark.

I did a study, at Churchill, for the 2003 spring meet, that I posted on the Delmar site and was generally criticized. This Churchill meet validates that study. Thanks. BBB

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NYRA 792
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2006, 05:30:42 PM »

CD is a little gold mine.
Some of it is so obvious even the talking heads at TVG picked up on it.
Somehow the "experts" over here haven't caught on  Grin
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David
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2006, 06:16:51 PM »

I've done extensive research, and extensive is too weak of a word to the work and time I have spent on it,  into the rail placement at AP since they went to the one course layout and did away with the inner and outer turf courses. I won't get into details, other to say that it is a very powerful angle, and the results aren't   as neat as the common wisdom offered above.

If your are seriously gambling and not consider it is a huge mistake in my opinion.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2006, 07:16:03 PM »

I've done extensive research, and extensive is too weak of a word to the work and time I have spent on it,  into the rail placement at AP since they went to the one course layout and did away with the inner and outer turf courses. I won't get into details, other to say that it is a very powerful angle, and the results aren't   as neat as the common wisdom offered above.

If your are seriously gambling and not consider it is a huge mistake in my opinion.

**LOL** well I don't know what serious gambling is.

Its not rail placement that wins turfers. show me a recent race that was determined by placement of the rail.

Final fractions, trips and class and turf ability mean 99.9% more than rail placement. IMHO of course. oh and I pay almost no attention to the pace of a turfer. I remember when I picked a 30 buck winner on the turf a couple of weeks ago. some guy came up to me and showed me the hoss was dropping
2LBs in weight and that was the reason he won. so if you can make money
off that rail placement angle more power to ya. I stick with the hoss that brung me. dude

 clocker biggestal
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2006, 07:31:33 PM »

Final fractions, trips and class and turf ability mean 99.9% more than rail placement. IMHO of course.

The key phrase.

If there was any one proper way to handicap a race one person would have all the money and the rest of us none. Those of us who know Al know he doesn't have all the money.  Grin

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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2006, 08:03:30 PM »

The key phrase.

If there was any one proper way to handicap a race one person would have all the money and the rest of us none. Those of us who know Al know he doesn't have all the money.  Grin



Yeah terry, but I pick a mean turfer.

Post a few of you turfer picks in this forum mr B based upon your selection crietira

Let's see what ya got. **LOL**

Just for laughs.

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David
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2006, 08:16:12 PM »

I'm not questioning your ability to pick turf horses, you post your analysis quite often and it oftens seems to make sense and you have had some sucess that I recall. I believe it was Steven Davidowitz who writes in his book about the different "windows" into a race, bias, breeding, speed, etc. etc., etc. You don't necessarily need to be looking in every window to be profitable, you appearantly don't look into the movable rail  "window" and still do well enough for yourself.

I believe I have an edge with the very different courses that are caused by the rail movement, it is a window I like to look into and it is one that not many are looking through which by it's very definition will lead to value.
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alydar66
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2006, 08:43:03 PM »

BBB Wrote:
One of the best handicapping angles is keeping a record of the turf rail. Speed holds very well when it is out, and closers enjoy the race being on the hedge.

Whats the logic behind this?  When rail is in, the turns would be tighter, and I would think speed has an an advantage with tighter turns.
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Trackman
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2006, 09:12:58 PM »

BBB,

The lanes at Arlington are set so that the gate can be placed five separate places and the race still be timed exactly. Obviously, "about" distances are skewed somewhat because of the "run-up" times to the start point.

Personally, I disagree with some others who think lanes don't make any difference. Certainly tighter turns from the inner lanes are different than the wide sweeping turns in the outside lanes.

Actually, Terry, there are five lanes, but when they are 20 or 30 feet out in lane five, there might as well be a lane six or even seven. They just don't have the timers to time them precisely.
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glahn
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« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2006, 09:18:36 PM »

This is one of the many reasons why "speed figures" for grass races are almost useless.o

Speaking of grass racing, all this rain is getting on my nerves. The weather channel says clear skies on the dark days next week, storms once they resume on Wednesday. Haha, what luck.
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2006, 09:26:28 PM »

Excellent posts.  Question when the Breeders Cup is at Arlington does the rail NEED to be in lane 5?

Also describe the "million lane". Really appreciate the posts. BBB
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2006, 06:34:47 AM »

This is one of the many reasons why "speed figures" for grass races are almost useless.o


speed figures should only include the final fraction. Unless the first part
is super slow. the hoss with the best trip and the best kick will usually win a turfer. just like poly.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2006, 06:39:19 AM »

I'm not questioning your ability to pick turf horses, you post your analysis quite often and it oftens seems to make sense and you have had some sucess that I recall. I believe it was Steven Davidowitz who writes in his book about the different "windows" into a race, bias, breeding, speed, etc. etc., etc. You don't necessarily need to be looking in every window to be profitable, you appearantly don't look into the movable rail  "window" and still do well enough for yourself.

I believe I have an edge with the very different courses that are caused by the rail movement, it is a window I like to look into and it is one that not many are looking through which by it's very definition will lead to value.

David,

I'd like to see you selections that are influenced by the placement of the rail (even if it is after the fact) on the turf.

Allan
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Trackman
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2006, 09:06:35 AM »

BBB,

Yes. Should the BC return to AP, it must always be run in lane 5 to accomodate the Filly and Mare Turf (1 1/4 miles). Same with the Million (lane 5 is the Million lane). Even then the race must start partially on the turn.

I think AP must adopt one important change in order to host another Breeders' Cup. They can't run 1 1/16 mile for the 2-yo races. When faced with the choice of a one turn mile or 1 1/8 miles, the BC Commitee opted for the latter even though when the BC has been run at Hollywood (also a 1 1/8 mile oval), they made the race a mile. I believe their poorly thought out decision caused a large number of juveniles never to race again or have severely shortened careers.

A mile and an eighth is just a tad too long for them to go at that young age. Look at the top three finishers in those two races. The only one you ever heard from again was the gutsy winner of the Juv Fillies, Storm Flag Flying, and I believe that race took so much out of her that she was never the same again. It seems the BC people joined the ranks of those who think money first and the horses second.

What AP needs to do for another BC (and it's probably a good idea anyhow), is install another photo finish camera and timer at the sixteenth pole. That way they could run 1 1/16 mile starting at the finish line. On a day to day basis, this would give horsemen a choice between a flat one turn mile and 1 1/8 miles. I think it would help with entries.

BBB, sorry about the long-winded answer to a yes-no question.
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2006, 07:04:25 PM »

I seem to recall when the BC was held at Arlington in 1996, that Rock of Gibraltar's connections were so upset when they drew outside, they refused interviews.  Then when the gates opened "Rock made huge wide moves around both turns and settled for second.  He might be the poster boy for drawing outside with the rai out and having no chance.   BBB
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2006, 08:47:24 PM »

I seem to recall when the BC was held at Arlington in 1996, that Rock of Gibraltar's connections were so upset when they drew outside, they refused interviews.  Then when the gates opened "Rock made huge wide moves around both turns and settled for second.  He might be the poster boy for drawing outside with the rai out and having no chance.   BBB

He was also interfered with by the breakdown of Landseer.

1996? The BC at Arlington was 2002.

 clocker biggestal

a bad break also didn't help. Bad break, wide trip, and interfered with a the top of the stretch. wouldn't make him the poster boy of a wide post. He would have won with a better break and lack of interference. and he still finished second a mortal hoss would have run out. BTW the speed in that race came back.

Speed also nowhere in the F&M. speed also died in the turf. Turf speed that
day was O fer. **LOL**

 clocker biggestal
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2006, 05:27:09 PM »

Clocker Biggesta Despite your resistance to accept that the movement of the turf rail affects the outcome of the race, many good cappers on this forum are aware of it.

I would equate not keeping track of the movements to going into a World Series, without a left hand reliever in the bullpen; you can still win but.....

Good cappin.  BBB
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2006, 06:05:09 PM »

Clocker Biggesta Despite your resistance to accept that the movement of the turf rail affects the outcome of the race, many good cappers on this forum are aware of it.

I would equate not keeping track of the movements to going into a World Series, without a left hand reliever in the bullpen; you can still win but.....

Good cappin.  BBB

you have yet to provide me with an example in which the rail placement
effected the winner of the races.

I could give you countless turf winners using my crieteria.

1. Final fractions
2. pedigree
3. trips
4. Turf ability

show me a race that you profited by the placement.

Until you provide me with examples your claims that it effects turf racing
shall remain suspect.

 clocker biggestal
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2006, 06:57:51 PM »

Fair enough Al.

Hope you have the DRF for last Saturday, Stephen Foster day, if so this will make more sense.

First acknowledge, that some horses are deep closers and prefer turf.  Then, for now, accept this premise; when the race is on the hedge (deep) closers enjoy a faster pace and do not lose as much ground around the turns.  Accordingly, when the rail is out, the pace is slower (horses run slower around turns).  This leaves the closers with a tough challenge; close into a slow pace, while losing ground.  Basic enough.

The Regret was contested Saturday and we will spotlight 3yo filly NOTTAWASAGA.  She is a 700K yearling in good hands.

Sept.   Woodbine.  Huge come from behind try giving up big weight with the rail way out.  She had to give both fillies that beat her ten pounds each (apprentices) and rallied stoutly with the rail out but hung and probably bled.  Future SW with any luck and a filly to watch.  Surely, when she gets the hedge she wins!!

Nov     Dirt!   First Lasix.   No interest.

Dec.  Calder.  Hedge.  Easy come from behind score.  Almost certainly blows away 1X fillies when she gets the shrubs again! 

Jan 1st     Calder.  100K stake.    Tough, tough spot on only thirteen days rest against MSW J'Ray. Mild Gain, no factor.

Feb   Gulfstream  1X    Rail out.  Mild gain finishing 7th.

March    Two nice works  3/20 and 3/27.  Then a modest 3/8's April 4 at Keeneland.

April 7th   1X   Rail out.  No rally.

April 23rd    1X   Hedge   Tons best getting us a juicy win price and hitting a four digit pick 4.

In conclusion, most are not this textbook, but the tenet works both ways.  Anotherwords a speed horse that has been on the hedge, then gets the rail can be double tough.  The midwest AP, CD, FG, Kee, etc is a goldmine for this angle. Hope this helps, if not I can go into much more depth.  BBB
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alydar66
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2006, 11:46:39 PM »

I dont understand why the pace would be faster because the turns are tighter. A 1/4 or 1/2 mile is still a 1/4 or 1/2 mile no matter where the rail is placed.  Please explain the logic behind the pace argument.
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2006, 07:16:49 AM »

Alydar   When the race is on the hedge the starting gate moves up the stretch.  Now you have a much longer run to the turn, horses run faster on straights, hence the quicker splits that closers require.

Al:   Apologize for the redboarding example but I post all my bets before hand on a forum somewhere.  That bet was at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate  Post #  7016  BBB
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2006, 08:55:53 AM »


Al:   Apologize for the redboarding example but I post all my bets before hand on a forum somewhere.  That bet was at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate  Post #  7016  BBB

I don't mind redboarding.
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childewood
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« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2006, 04:55:52 PM »

If final fractions are important in turf racing, how are "about" distance final fractions figured?
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alydar66
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« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2006, 09:18:33 PM »

The rail was moved to lane 1 today at Arlington.
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bellsbendboy
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« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2006, 07:08:15 PM »

Generally, tracks race on the hedge weekends.  Get a wallet sized calendar, if the horse raced during the week assume speed was tough, if on a weekend look for closers.  BBB
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alydar66
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« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2006, 07:29:19 PM »

Wheres Bellsbendboy?  Yesterday the turf rail was moved to 10 feet inside lane one.  I believe that might be the farthest it can be moved in.  According to Bells theory, closers should be rolling home. Instead speed is holding well.  Whats going on Bellsbendboy?
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