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Author Topic: Rainbow pick 6 is a Stronach scam  (Read 3798 times)
Bridgejumper
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« on: February 13, 2013, 06:38:25 PM »

for all of you chasing the impossible--i will explain this to you

Stronach buys every ticket--to ensure a carryover--no way in hell somebody takes the pool down because he has a winning ticket--everyday

the reason he does this is create a large exotic pool--which will generate extra handle--so he intentionally has his own corporation purchase every combination for a dime to ensure the pool stays intact--and the handle grows and grows as the meet gets deeper and deeper and the carryover gets bigger and bigger

quite sinister and ingenious--but what you dont know is that you HAVE ABSOLUTLEY NO SHOT of taking this pool down yourself --because they is already another dime winning ticket--held by Gulfstream Park

on the last day with a mandatory payout--you will see some extraordinary handle figures

so intentionally flushing money down the drain int his own pools will indeed payoff--as on closing day all of you horizontal players will be foaming at the mouth--and Stronach will reap the benefits of all the additional handle

so you have no shot until closing day--if anyone thinks otherwise--well--you dont "get it" whatsoever
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Ghostjones
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2013, 07:08:41 PM »

I guess he forgot to do this on Sunday:

Quote
Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch

Four horses alive for jackpot in R6, Sexy Thunder, Kristina's Slew, Hot Stepping Lass and Trippi Honor the 2,4,7,8 for $2.4 million.#Gulf
« Last Edit: February 13, 2013, 07:11:08 PM by Ghostjones » Report to moderator   Logged
beobob
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2013, 07:27:59 PM »

I guess he forgot to do this on Sunday:


Don't you just hate when someone adds facts to a perfectly good, if implausible, conspiracy? I believe Stronach was born in Kenya.  He refuses to produce his birth certificate.
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Bridgejumper
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2013, 07:35:09 PM »

I guess he forgot to do this on Sunday:


OK smartasses--when i say Stronach has every combo covered--please take some poetic license comprehension courses

OK--he didnt have them all covered--but his boys kjnow what horses have NO shot--so he might leave out a few bombs

big deal---you so called facts prove nothing to me and if you feel better about yourself-i am happy for you

i am not here to nit-pick--but apparently you are
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Ghostjones
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2013, 07:51:16 PM »

OK smartasses--when i say Stronach has every combo covered--please take some poetic license comprehension courses

OK--he didnt have them all covered--but his boys kjnow what horses have NO shot--so he might leave out a few bombs

big deal---you so called facts prove nothing to me and if you feel better about yourself-i am happy for you

i am not here to nit-pick--but apparently you are

If you are right I bet his butthole puckered up a little when the 4 made it interesting



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brivolta
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2013, 07:58:55 PM »

If he wasnt going to cover them all (even though you said he did a minute ago) wouldn't it make more sense to leave out favorites as opposed to bombs? Plenty of tickets will cover the favorites.
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Ghostjones
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2013, 08:01:01 PM »

If he wasnt going to cover them all (even though you said he did a minute ago) wouldn't it make more sense to leave out favorites as opposed to bombs? Plenty of tickets will cover the favorites.

That makes too much sense.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2013, 08:57:57 PM »

for all of you chasing the impossible--i will explain this to you

Stronach buys every ticket--to ensure a carryover--no way in hell somebody takes the pool down because he has a winning ticket--everyday

the reason he does this is create a large exotic pool--which will generate extra handle

Blanketing 6 races at 10 horses each for 10c = $100,000
$100,000 x .2 = $20,000 - money lost to takeout, of which as track owner he will get back maybe $7,000.
Usual Winnings on a daily basis (like today) - $14,000 more or less
Total bet: $100,000
Total wagering won/earned back: $21,000

Total generated handle for a day like today - $480,000
Most of that is coming in from simulcasts, meaning the takeoput rake is small and he has to share it with horsemen, so let's be charitable and say his half overall is even 5%
Handle income on takeout per day $480,000 x 0.05 = $24,000

Net daily income due to this scheme: $21,000 + $24,000 = $45,000
Net daily income/loss = $100,000 - $45,000 = ($55,000)

Genius.
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SIXRULER
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2013, 01:42:00 AM »

Blanketing 6 races at 10 horses each for 10c = $100,000
$100,000 x .2 = $20,000 - money lost to takeout, of which as track owner he will get back maybe $7,000.
Usual Winnings on a daily basis (like today) - $14,000 more or less
Total bet: $100,000
Total wagering won/earned back: $21,000

Total generated handle for a day like today - $480,000
Most of that is coming in from simulcasts, meaning the takeoput rake is small and he has to share it with horsemen, so let's be charitable and say his half overall is even 5%
Handle income on takeout per day $480,000 x 0.05 = $24,000

Net daily income due to this scheme: $21,000 + $24,000 = $45,000
Net daily income/loss = $100,000 - $45,000 = ($55,000)

Genius.


Yes after the pot has been carried for awhile not in the begining .
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Horse809
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2013, 10:14:21 AM »

The pool is so big, that it is a great play everyday to just hit it. The payoffs daily, without hitting it by yourself, have been great. With the dime bet, you can put in an $80 to $100 ticket, and have great coverage for a nice payout. Love the bet.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2013, 11:32:39 AM »

My opinion is it's still a Pick 6 and very difficult to hit. Much better handicappers than me have difficulty. It's fun to watch but not for me to bet.

Not to mention without ADW I can't play every single day and man would it P.O. me to miss the day it got hit ... like chasing a giant Powerball jackpot for 3 weeks only to miss a day and see your lucky numbers win it.
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jdizigg
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2013, 04:09:26 PM »

The pool is so big, that it is a great play everyday to just hit it. The payoffs daily, without hitting it by yourself, have been great. With the dime bet, you can put in an $80 to $100 ticket, and have great coverage for a nice payout. Love the bet.

Your way off base, any bet that has a 52 percent takeout is a TERRIBLE BET and there are people out there that laugh at the ones who do... I myself dont mind throwing 20-40 bucks into it but i know its a terrible bet and basically bet it because you can play the dime ticket... APRIL 5TH IS THE DAY to go to the bank as it will be a real carryover instead of a jokepot carryover...
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RacetrackRailbird
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2013, 09:54:51 PM »

Your way off base, any bet that has a 52 percent takeout is a TERRIBLE BET


You're kinda far off base yourself.

Your logic would apply fully were this a lottery-like case with random luck dictating everything.

Instead, you have a scenario where those betting the big money, going for the giant score, are tailoring their action so as to reach-out to the extreme limbs of the realm of parimutuel possibility, and consequently lightening-up on the middle, far-more-probable outcomes, and thus impacting the probable daily payoffs upward, no matter the so-called "52% takeout".  Further impact same by the dime increments, and reduced probability of being hit by the IRS when scoring a pick-6 outcome that is realistically hittable, and you have further negated what, to your surface observation, is a "52% takeout bet".

If everybody else shied away from the bet on your advice, and left you to cherry-pick the middle each day, eventually holding the only ticket on the odd day when your 4th preference won four legs, you wouldn't give a f*ck about the takeout.


So while on the surface this is a seeming "52% takeout bet" in the minds of some, there are significant circumstances which have it playing like something far less absurd.

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Horse809
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2013, 08:58:07 AM »


You're kinda far off base yourself.

Your logic would apply fully were this a lottery-like case with random luck dictating everything.

Instead, you have a scenario where those betting the big money, going for the giant score, are tailoring their action so as to reach-out to the extreme limbs of the realm of parimutuel possibility, and consequently lightening-up on the middle, far-more-probable outcomes, and thus impacting the probable daily payoffs upward, no matter the so-called "52% takeout".  Further impact same by the dime increments, and reduced probability of being hit by the IRS when scoring a pick-6 outcome that is realistically hittable, and you have further negated what, to your surface observation, is a "52% takeout bet".

If everybody else shied away from the bet on your advice, and left you to cherry-pick the middle each day, eventually holding the only ticket on the odd day when your 4th preference won four legs, you wouldn't give a f*ck about the takeout.


So while on the surface this is a seeming "52% takeout bet" in the minds of some, there are significant circumstances which have it playing like something far less absurd.


Very Well Said  thumbs up
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2013, 11:25:08 AM »

It is still a Pick 6 bet, and every bit as hard to hit as any other Pick 6 bet.

You guys act like it's easy because it's a dime. So why haven't we read about any of our forum players hitting it?
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beobob
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2013, 01:21:14 PM »

You guys act like it's easy because it's a dime. So why haven't we read about any of our forum players hitting it?

Modesty. 

It has been my observation that most, if not all, on this board are a humble lot. They are not interested in self promotion when monetizing their handicapping assets.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2013, 01:53:48 PM »

Modesty. 

It has been my observation that most, if not all, on this board are a humble lot. They are not interested in self promotion when monetizing their handicapping assets.

Modesty. That would certainly explain it.
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APCD Dan
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2013, 04:12:59 PM »

Modesty. 

It has been my observation that most, if not all, on this board are a humble lot. They are not interested in self promotion when monetizing their handicapping assets.

Love this answer, especially the monetizing part, which is a term that seems to be stuck in Terry's head.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2013, 04:55:08 PM »

Love this answer, especially the monetizing part, which is a term that seems to be stuck in Terry's head.

I love it too, especially if it helps you obsess about the other posters you seem to have stuck in your head. heart
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beobob
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« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2013, 04:59:28 PM »

Love this answer, especially the monetizing part, which is a term that seems to be stuck in Terry's head.

Some might think he uses it to mock, I believe that he uses it because he truly believes it.  Chances are CDI has been added to his portfolio.   heart heart heart
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jdizigg
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2013, 12:12:44 AM »


You're kinda far off base yourself.

Your logic would apply fully were this a lottery-like case with random luck dictating everything.

Instead, you have a scenario where those betting the big money, going for the giant score, are tailoring their action so as to reach-out to the extreme limbs of the realm of parimutuel possibility, and consequently lightening-up on the middle, far-more-probable outcomes, and thus impacting the probable daily payoffs upward, no matter the so-called "52% takeout".  Further impact same by the dime increments, and reduced probability of being hit by the IRS when scoring a pick-6 outcome that is realistically hittable, and you have further negated what, to your surface observation, is a "52% takeout bet".

If everybody else shied away from the bet on your advice, and left you to cherry-pick the middle each day, eventually holding the only ticket on the odd day when your 4th preference won four legs, you wouldn't give a f*ck about the takeout.


So while on the surface this is a seeming "52% takeout bet" in the minds of some, there are significant circumstances which have it playing like something far less absurd.



no your logics way off base do you like betting into a pools where you can only win 48 percent of the money put in that day?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2013, 12:17:58 AM »

Some might think he uses it to mock, I believe that he uses it because he truly believes it.  Chances are CDI has been added to his portfolio. 

I've got all my money tied up in up negotiable monetization right now.
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RacetrackRailbird
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« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2013, 09:19:26 AM »

no your logics way off base do you like betting into a pools where you can only win 48 percent of the money put in that day?


You simply do not have any concept of what you're saying.


You can win many times over the full amount put in that day, on the Gulfstream Rainbow pick-6 - or haven't you been paying attention?


Maybe a simple example might prove easier for you to understand:


Say Secretariat was running in the Belmont Stakes, and he was 1-to-9 in the win pool at Belmont Park.

IF at Centennial Park they were having simulcast wagering on that same Belmont Stakes, with Colorado-only pools, and "52% takeout", and despite all that, Secretariat were 7-2 in the wagering, it would be a bonanza opportunity.   This despite the fact you couldn't even win as much as 48% of the money in the pool that day.


It is rather scary that you can't understand as much.
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brivolta
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« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2013, 10:02:34 AM »


You simply do not have any concept of what you're saying.


You can win many times over the full amount put in that day, on the Gulfstream Rainbow pick-6 - or haven't you been paying attention?


Maybe a simple example might prove easier for you to understand:


Say Secretariat was running in the Belmont Stakes, and he was 1-to-9 in the win pool at Belmont Park.

IF at Centennial Park they were having simulcast wagering on that same Belmont Stakes, with Colorado-only pools, and "52% takeout", and despite all that, Secretariat were 7-2 in the wagering, it would be a bonanza opportunity.   This despite the fact you couldn't even win as much as 48% of the money in the pool that day.


It is rather scary that you can't understand as much.

I don't know about you but Secretariat would be a play against for me at this stage of his career. sarcasm
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2013, 11:02:40 AM »

You can win many times over the full amount put in that day, on the Gulfstream Rainbow pick-6 - or haven't you been paying attention?

The only time anyone wins more than the full amount put in daily is when the jackpot gets hit. But I thought you were arguing that even the daily consolation payout is a good wager. The far more likely scenario is you're going to lose every cent you bet, many times, because it is a Pick 6.

Quote
IF at Centennial Park they were having simulcast wagering on that same Belmont Stakes, with Colorado-only pools, and "52% takeout", and despite all that, Secretariat were 7-2 in the wagering, it would be a bonanza opportunity.   This despite the fact you couldn't even win as much as 48% of the money in the pool that day.

While that's true, in a Pick 6 you're not betting any mortal lock like Secretariat. You're betting on something that's extremely unlikely you're going to hit. Kind of like if you buy a lottery ticket.

The proper way of looking at things is whether the expected payout exceeds the odds of that wager hitting. That's hard when 52% of the money is being removed. For instance, the things pays $8,000. That's 80,000 to 1. What if the true odds of that wager were 100,000-1 ? Then you just bet into an extreme underlay, which is suppose to be no-no #1 for horse players.
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