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Author Topic: Rainbow pick 6 is a Stronach scam  (Read 3863 times)
beobob
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« Reply #25 on: February 21, 2013, 01:19:01 PM »


You simply do not have any concept of what you're saying.


You can win many times over the full amount put in that day, on the Gulfstream Rainbow pick-6 - or haven't you been paying attention?


Maybe a simple example might prove easier for you to understand:


Say Secretariat was running in the Belmont Stakes, and he was 1-to-9 in the win pool at Belmont Park.

IF at Centennial Park they were having simulcast wagering on that same Belmont Stakes, with Colorado-only pools, and "52% takeout", and despite all that, Secretariat were 7-2 in the wagering, it would be a bonanza opportunity.   This despite the fact you couldn't even win as much as 48% of the money in the pool that day.


It is rather scary that you can't understand as much.

I think I understand what he is saying... Let me put it a different way - there is an apple on one table and an orange on another.  The apple is juicy and red, the orange is juicy and orange.

I hope that clears it up for everyone.
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jdizigg
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« Reply #26 on: February 21, 2013, 02:06:18 PM »


You can win many times over the full amount put in that day, on the Gulfstream Rainbow pick-6 - or haven't you been paying attention?


ARE YOU FOR REAL? DO YOU UNDERSTAND HOW THE BET WORKS?  you can only win 48 percent of the money put into the pool that day unless you have the only ticket.....
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jdizigg
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« Reply #27 on: February 21, 2013, 02:08:49 PM »

The guys who bet hundreds of thousands of dollars into pick 6 pools laugh at the bet and almost refuse to play it... laughing guy
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RacetrackRailbird
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« Reply #28 on: February 21, 2013, 06:27:40 PM »

no your logics way off base do you like betting into a pools where you can only win 48 percent of the money put in that day?



ARE YOU FOR REAL? DO YOU UNDERSTAND HOW THE BET WORKS?  you can only win 48 percent of the money put into the pool that day unless you have the only ticket.....


Thanks for countering your own previous stupidity.   Now the rest of us don't have to spell out that which you've already spelled out.

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RacetrackRailbird
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« Reply #29 on: February 21, 2013, 07:11:37 PM »

The only time anyone wins more than the full amount put in daily is when the jackpot gets hit. But I thought you were arguing that even the daily consolation payout is a good wager. The far more likely scenario is you're going to lose every cent you bet, many times, because it is a Pick 6.

While that's true, in a Pick 6 you're not betting any mortal lock like Secretariat. You're betting on something that's extremely unlikely you're going to hit. Kind of like if you buy a lottery ticket.

The proper way of looking at things is whether the expected payout exceeds the odds of that wager hitting. That's hard when 52% of the money is being removed. For instance, the things pays $8,000. That's 80,000 to 1. What if the true odds of that wager were 100,000-1 ? Then you just bet into an extreme underlay, which is suppose to be no-no #1 for horse players.


Are you people a parade of the completely clueless??   You guys are lost.


The most likely scenario on the average show ticket is that you're going to lose every cent you bet.  Why restate the obvious?


In this case, the so-called "expected payout" is quite subjective, yet this is like playing blackjack with one deck, in a sea of players where others are wastefully paying considerable money to remove all of the 2's, all of the 3's, and all of the 4's from the deck.  If you are driving the ball toward straight away center field, backing the face cards with power, the net effect on you of all of these other morons playing the theoretically impossible offsets considerably the so-called "52% takeout" by a factor which you can't so easily discern.  The impact of the  "52% factor" is further offset by many dime scores falling beneath the IRS level beyond which the average player gets rooked pointlessly.

NOT only that, but you people need to lose this idiotic  perception that the big players are stacking their chips as high as might be in a traditional pick-six and in such a way where if their most hoped-for outcome wins, they have multiple tickets with all 6 winners.


The so-called little guy,  perhaps with $20 to $60 to play into the dime pool can afford 200 to 600 combinations (for the rare time in his life) AND he is not as significantly overpowered by those playing the big money as is the case in a standard pick-six.  Now the heavyweight may be dissuaded by this talk of "(effective) 52% takeout", and as such, he may only cover the far-reaches of the mutuels, in case he gets miraculously lucky, still further leaving the path toward straight away center field semi-bare.

Lastly, this is not about pick-sixes which would pay the $2 equivalent of  $160,000 in a standard wager, so why try to state your case with an example that doesn't relate?  Many who hit for $160K on a non-carryover day should have gotten  $200,000.  They don't care too much and nobody else cares at all.


This is about the sort of pick-six that might have paid $4000 on a random day somewhere and which, for a dime, would pay $200.   It is simply wrong to think that it should have paid $400 (and slightly more) because of that "52% takeout" when the big money is distributed around the pool in considerably unusual fashion with that unusual fashion impacting the payoffs considerably.


If some farker in Colorado bets $3,000,000 to win on Sham in considerably unusual fashion  then you'd be a fool to not investigate the resultant giant overlay on Secretariat.


The "52% takeout" theory just doesn't hold water in this case in the same way as it does in most circumstances.
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jdizigg
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« Reply #30 on: February 21, 2013, 07:12:33 PM »




Thanks for countering your own previous stupidity.   Now the rest of us don't have to spell out that which you've already spelled out.



you must not want to answer the question I put that up for you bc i was starting to think you didnt know how the bet works.  Its common knowledge that the real sharp gamblers think its a joke...
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Blue Chip55
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« Reply #31 on: February 21, 2013, 07:19:53 PM »

They do give a consolation and in fact the day we played it, we invested $290 and actually hit it for 20 cents. It paid $422 with a $24 horse and a $19 horse. That seemed awfully short for a pick 6 with those 2 prices promting my call. It was then I learned of the 52% insanity and the best line I heard from the mutuel manager was "why would you possibly play any number for 20 cents ?". Heck ,we had numbers for a dollar that day. I told him we played numbers multple times with our keys and singles and he said "thats not how you play this bet". I responded witha a " huh ?" and the rest is history.
 
Now, if you guys feel the payoffs are still good , thats fine . Play the bet. You can play alot of combos with dime wagers. Just be aware that they are taking 52%. So regardless of your 'win', you are still being raped. It doesnt matter if two 50-1 shots win, there is still a good chance someone else in the 50 states could easily have it. My point is there can not possibly be value with that takeout regardless of the carryover---whic is NOT a carryover, its a JACKPOT. Theres a big difference and they dont advertise it that way. And I let my mutuel friend know about that
 
However with the pool this big, help yourself. You are getting robbed if you win as was the case with us. But i guess you stil collect and that big number entices people to play. But its a boderline scam when you think of how its handled by the track and promoted. Steve Crist, longtime t-bred Guru had some very unkind words to say about the whole wager. Basically it a bet for IDIOTS looking to get rich quick not for INTELLIGENT horseplayers

GUlffstream gets to hang on to your money and do what they wish, They are the only winners. The wager is a SCAM
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Blue Chip55
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« Reply #32 on: February 21, 2013, 07:29:59 PM »


 
However, if you are crazy enough to get involved with this , make sure of what I am saying is fact. I believe it is. And it makes sense, so why not ? But if its hit at an ADW, theoretically 2 people can put tickets together and one person can claim they are both his. In that instance you will definitely not be paid the jackpot
 
I didnt find those payouts posted all that thrilling . Yes its a dime payout but you see the article says most suckers (like me that time --I guess) are betting $300 on average.

17th: 6.00/7.80/7.80/7.40/2.80/123.20 - $1,523.78................so if I bet 300 to catch that, screw them. Figure out the parlay. Nobody is investing 10 cents to hit the wager. The bet is a joke, a fraud and that takeout constitutes legal robbery in my opinion
 
16th: 12.00/24.00/5.00/5.00/5.40/17.00 - $1,564.16......That one is no bargain either IMO. All comes down to ROI. If you caught that with a $12 bet, fantastic, but I doubt too many did. i prefer to think more of what Im supposed to get back with a "sane" takeout. Its simply a gimmick play to entice you to get rich
 

By the look at the parlays at these payoffs....Thats what happens when your dime bets are really nickel bets. PEOPLE THIS ROBBERY AND A SCAM

YOU CANT OVERCOME a 52% TAKEOUT. YOUR  CHASING A DREAM . ANY PLAYER OF THIS WAGER IS A DAMN FOOL. YOU ARENT A HORSEPLAYER. YOU"RE A FOOL
As the article says, most serious players run and hide from these type of things. I got involved because i was told of the huge "carryover'/ but never again----until April 5th anyway
 

One last thing. Wheh I first blindly made that bet and the mutuel manager explained it all to me when it was over, I said you have to be kidding. He said dont play it. So I went one better. I said remind me to never wager on Gulfstream Park ever again because you are running a scam at that racetrack . He said I'll be gald to remind you--" Is your phone number xxx-xxx-xxxx. (good old caller ID) ? I said yep thats it. He said " Good, I'll call you ever morning to remind you " ....LMAO. He wasnt happy
 
Incidentally he never called.
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Blue Chip55
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« Reply #33 on: February 21, 2013, 07:35:41 PM »


Are you people a parade of the completely clueless??   You guys are lost.


The most likely scenario on the average show ticket is that you're going to lose every cent you bet.  Why restate the obvious?


In this case, the so-called "expected payout" is quite subjective, yet this is like playing blackjack with one deck, in a sea of players where others are wastefully paying considerable money to remove all of the 2's, all of the 3's, and all of the 4's from the deck.  If you are driving the ball toward straight away center field, backing the face cards with power, the net effect on you of all of these other morons playing the theoretically impossible offsets considerably the so-called "52% takeout" by a factor which you can't so easily discern.  The impact of the  "52% factor" is further offset by many dime scores falling beneath the IRS level beyond which the average player gets rooked pointlessly.

NOT only that, but you people need to lose this idiotic  perception that the big players are stacking their chips as high as might be in a traditional pick-six and in such a way where if their most hoped-for outcome wins, they have multiple tickets with all 6 winners.


The so-called little guy,  perhaps with $20 to $60 to play into the dime pool can afford 200 to 600 combinations (for the rare time in his life) AND he is not as significantly overpowered by those playing the big money as is the case in a standard pick-six.  Now the heavyweight may be dissuaded by this talk of "(effective) 52% takeout", and as such, he may only cover the far-reaches of the mutuels, in case he gets miraculously lucky, still further leaving the path toward straight away center field semi-bare.

Lastly, this is not about pick-sixes which would pay the $2 equivalent of  $160,000 in a standard wager, so why try to state your case with an example that doesn't relate?  Many who hit for $160K on a non-carryover day should have gotten  $200,000.  They don't care too much and nobody else cares at all.


This is about the sort of pick-six that might have paid $4000 on a random day somewhere and which, for a dime, would pay $200.   It is simply wrong to think that it should have paid $400 (and slightly more) because of that "52% takeout" when the big money is distributed around the pool in considerably unusual fashion with that unusual fashion impacting the payoffs considerably.


If some farker in Colorado bets $3,000,000 to win on Sham in considerably unusual fashion  then you'd be a fool to not investigate the resultant giant overlay on Secretariat.


The "52% takeout" theory just doesn't hold water in this case in the same way as it does in most circumstances.



HOW LONG HAVE YOU BEEN PLAYING HORSES. YOU SHOULD BE PLAYING BINGO
ANYONE WILLING TO DONATE THAT KIND OF MONET TO A RACETRACK IS A DARN FOOL> TOMORROW MORNING THROW HALF OF YOUR MONEY OUT YOUR WINDOW

BECAUSE THATS WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER IN THE DAY WHEN U MAKE THIS BET.
BETTER YET GIVE IT TO CHARITY

WAKE UP ITS A FOOLISH SUCKER GIMMICK---ITS DESIGNED FOR THE BRAINLESS

PLAY IT APRIL 5TH ANF HAVE FUN.......AMAZING WHAT U READ ON THESES SITES


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UncleEddiesPal
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« Reply #34 on: February 21, 2013, 08:40:09 PM »

It is a foolish bet- just like the guy playing penny slots after his fiends memorial  that collected 7 million because of his friends propensity to play those type of slots.Anything is possible. Just saying.
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Blue Chip55
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« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2013, 09:41:47 PM »

It is a foolish bet- just like the guy playing penny slots after his fiends memorial  that collected 7 million because of his friends propensity to play those type of slots.Anything is possible. Just saying.
CORRECT NOT A WAGER FOR ANY SERIOUS HORSEPLAYER
A MARKETING DREAM FOR SUCKERS
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Psycho Dad
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« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2013, 09:58:35 PM »

"Only" $100,000 added to the pool today.  Looks like your best chance to hit the rainbow is during the week.  Betting is huge on the weekend.  April 5 will be a national holiday if the pool runs to the end of the meet.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2013, 10:05:25 PM »

Are you people a parade of the completely clueless??   You guys are lost.

No, you are.

Quote
The most likely scenario on the average show ticket is that you're going to lose every cent you bet.  Why restate the obvious?

Because that is precisely what makes it "not a good bet". You're going to lose a ton before you cash, if you ever do, and when you do, you're not going to get fair value for the odds against your wager because the takeout is so onerous.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
Klink
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« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2013, 10:11:27 PM »

No, you are.

Because that is precisely what makes it "not a good bet". You're going to lose a ton before you cash, if you ever do, and when you do, you're not going to get fair value for the odds against your wager because the takeout is so onerous.

I think race track railbird is Frank Stronach
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Klink
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« Reply #39 on: February 22, 2013, 10:17:23 AM »

Just another opinion from some amateur

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-rainbow-6-elusive-expensive-pot-gold
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #40 on: February 22, 2013, 11:23:53 AM »


What do guys like him know, anyhow?
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
beobob
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« Reply #41 on: February 22, 2013, 12:08:56 PM »

What do guys like him know, anyhow?


As usual all you mortals are looking at this wrong.  Takeout MIGHT matter if you lose your bet, but if you never lose WHAT DOES IT MATTER?Huh

How long have you people been betting on horses??? AND YOU ARE STILL LOSING RACES??? Huh Huh Huh

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brivolta
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« Reply #42 on: February 22, 2013, 02:59:13 PM »

56/1 to start today's sequence.
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brivolta
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« Reply #43 on: February 22, 2013, 05:05:41 PM »

One ticket with 5 live horses going into the last leg. Gonna take a minor miracle to carry.,
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Pal B
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« Reply #44 on: February 22, 2013, 05:13:14 PM »

Wouldn't that be something if they scratched one of the live horses and gave them the favorite and they had it too and they hit it twice if the favorite won. I assume that would negate the single winner?
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Horse809
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« Reply #45 on: February 22, 2013, 05:22:25 PM »

It's Gone. 3.5 Million
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childewood
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« Reply #46 on: February 22, 2013, 05:22:36 PM »

Winner, winner....3.5 mil...
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brivolta
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« Reply #47 on: February 22, 2013, 05:23:36 PM »

I guess Stronach was asleep at the wheel when covering all combinations today.
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GeorgeB
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« Reply #48 on: February 22, 2013, 05:26:02 PM »

LOL Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Dr. Mel
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« Reply #49 on: February 22, 2013, 05:33:31 PM »

Looks as if the user that posted this logic has stopped posting on this message. Stronach wouldn't screw with the bettors. He is a man that loves horse. I don't know if he bets.
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