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Author Topic: Class Play: 3YO first time in n1x alw vs older  (Read 506 times)
HorseVoice*
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« on: February 10, 2013, 02:11:47 PM »

I have a class play today that I haven't seen this early in the year since Sportsman's was running.

This year's new 3 year olds will be taking on older competitors in low-level allowance races in bunches this spring, but such a play appears in the 8th at Oaklawn this afternoon. The thinking is that it's OK for brand new 3yo's to still be eligible for the 1st allowance condition, but the older horses should have already won at the n1x level if they were any good; usually, they are not much.

#9 Sheila Tequila has decent running lines and fits well here, but has a tendency to hang late. Has decent slop breeding, supported by her lone win in the goo at Prairie Ghettoes. May forget to stop with speed rider Terry Thompson up.

I will bet her to win if 9-2 or more, and backwheel in exactas, then re-punch exacta boxes with the logical contenders.
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brivolta
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2013, 02:20:13 PM »

I like your thinking...but Becker looks awfully tough in that spot.
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amtino06
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« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2013, 02:39:23 PM »

Win or lose we need more of this. I'd much rather see someone take a step out and give one one horse they really like, instead of giving a run down of an entire card with their top plays. Good luck HV, now I've got something to root for today.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2013, 03:25:11 PM »

I like your thinking...but Becker looks awfully tough in that spot.

I'm not afraid of Becker's horse at all. While she has the best numbers in the field, she hasn't developed at all since her 1st two races, had to kiss in to her 2nd lifetime win, and has to carry 124 today (to Sheila Tequila's 115, a difference in weight worth almost a full 2 TG points right there). Becker's horse is hard to use, and hard to toss.

The ones I fear in here are:

* Robertson's horse, #1 Devil's Blush, who broke through in last and could run right back to her winning number, and

* the Ness horse, #7 Frisbee, coming back after a year away AND moving up from conditioned claimers to allowance company; Ness rarely overclassifies his runners.

Thanks for saying something, though -- I'm going to add on some bets to what I listed initially:

* big 3 horse ex box 1-7-9, small tri box 1-7-9  (toss Becker)

* tri wheel savers, Becker's horse 3 over 1-7-9 over ALL (50 cent play = $9...play this more times), then 1-7-9 over 3 over ALL (play this less)

* a few 50 cent tri boxes, 1-3-7-9

This gives me lots of ways to make a decent profit on the race, even if I am a little wrong about one of the horses mentioned here; if I am wrong about my key horse (doesn't run) AND the Becker horse wins, I'll need some help from the other two just to break even.

 
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brivolta
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2013, 03:47:03 PM »

I wish you the best of luck in this race. I mean this sincerely when I say I thoroughly enjoy your handicapping. And I plan o experiment with back wheeling exacts rather than betting the W/P wagers that I typically bet. I always felt like the plae part of the bet was a losing bet for me. So I'm looking forward to trying something new.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2013, 03:48:44 PM by brivolta » Report to moderator   Logged
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2013, 06:19:21 PM »

[warning: sour grapes = ON]

Ever have a trainer who, no matter what you do, you just can't figure the guy's horses out?

Allen Milligan is my albatross trainer. Toss him, he jumps up and beats me; use him, he pukes.

I've often wanted to ask this guy,

"So, Allen...after I make your horse my top selection and publish it on an Internet forum, what do you do, run down to that horse's stall and hit him in the knees with a 2 by 4??".

I'm done with that guy. Talk about horrible preparation for a race: Sheila Tequila could barely run 1/2 of a mile.

Terrible selection, and the winner was a rank outsider. Hope everyone was away from the forum today.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2013, 06:24:03 PM »

It happens to all of us, especially when trying to predict what might happen with a horse that has little recent form.
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2013, 06:45:19 PM »

Dont take it seriously.  You did better than any tv handicapper and racing publication handicapper.
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2013, 06:52:26 PM »

I only disagree with the post above criticizing jstuff and his full card selections.  This is a forum.  Posters can post what they want.  Jstuff actually went out of the box and gave price horses which surprised me.  He is growing up and has great info on twitter.  Hes contributed thousands of more posts to this forum than many of us.
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beobob
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2013, 07:34:21 PM »

Win or lose I always enjoy the "whys".  I enjoy hearing someone's thought process as to why (or why not) a horse is a good fit.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2013, 08:01:32 PM »

Win or lose I always enjoy the "whys".  I enjoy hearing someone's thought process as to why (or why not) a horse is a good fit.

Thanks for the kind words, folks. No one is more disappointed when my selections are poor than me: I know everybody works pretty hard for their money, and I HATE giving out rats like that one.

That said, I stand behind the angle 100%. Need to remember to apply it to a trainer you trust.   light bulb
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amtino06
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2013, 09:26:08 PM »

I only disagree with the post above criticizing jstuff and his full card selections.  This is a forum.  Posters can post what they want.  Jstuff actually went out of the box and gave price horses which surprised me.  He is growing up and has great info on twitter.  Hes contributed thousands of more posts to this forum than many of us.

I didn't mention JStuff in any part of my post, that's what you inferred. I also didn't bash anyone who posted full card plays, all I said was I preferred someone who goes out on a limb and puts all their chips into the pot with one play. I'm sorry if I offended anyone by that, it was much more a 'thumbs up' to HV, then a slap to anybody posting full card plays.
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JoeMama
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« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2013, 02:25:57 AM »

Good post. This is a very general reply. Plus, I do not have the pps for this race.  You commented that older horses should have broken through this condition, I agree. However, there are late bloomers, horses with early physical problems, lightly raced individuals, etc. I would think 3 yos would be at a huge disadvantage in February against older, but I would toss older that have tried over and over and cannot break through. The early part of the year is a great time of the year to handicap these types of races and younger versus older. Good values and such.
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mel4600
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« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2013, 09:58:03 AM »

Thanks for the kind words, folks. No one is more disappointed when my selections are poor than me: I know everybody works pretty hard for their money, and I HATE giving out rats like that one.

Most people realize it is hard to pick winners, and when they don't come in there is always tomorrow. When someone likes a horse and explains why, I analyze the reason and sometimes I agree and sometimes I don't. One thing for certain, I enjoy reading why someone likes a horse, that's how you improve handicapping skills. I admire people who post their plays (or give them to me privately) and hope they would continue when one goes sour. Lets face it, even a very good handicapper will be at about 30% max (if that) so there will always be a lot more losers than winners. Keep posting them.  Wink
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2013, 12:24:28 PM »

Sorry for my misinterpretation.   Jstuff and cliffy are the only full card analysis ive seen on this site.
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