Chicago Barn to Wire
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


November 26, 2014, 05:22:11 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Belmont Trakus Discrepancy  (Read 1096 times)
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« on: November 15, 2013, 06:16:11 AM »

10/14, 5th race, 2yo MSW won by Mr. Speaker.

Official time is 1:43.06.  Trakus time is 1:41.25.

I've been following Trakus numPerzz in one form or another for a couple of years now, mostly on the harness side.  Minor discrepancies of a few hundredths of a second this way or that don't bother me.  But this?  What gives?

Tried hand-timing the race, but this endeavor is complicated by a 36-foot run-up.

 Huh Huh

Report to moderator   Logged
Blazer
Newbie
*
Posts: 33




Ignore
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2013, 05:57:08 PM »

Would hope it is a keypunch error. That is not very professional but it can happen. A nearsighted charter without vision care benefits is inexcusable.
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2013, 07:20:48 PM »

It's not a "keypunch error"; the fractions are drastically different as well. 
Report to moderator   Logged
Blazer
Newbie
*
Posts: 33




Ignore
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2013, 07:10:27 AM »

The difference is only about eight lengths. Don't be so picky.
Report to moderator   Logged
dontdoit
Full Member
***
Posts: 231




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2013, 08:20:16 AM »

It's actually 11 lengths.
Report to moderator   Logged
Blazer
Newbie
*
Posts: 33




Ignore
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2013, 08:29:53 AM »

It is actually 10.8 but don't be so picky.  Wink
Report to moderator   Logged
dontdoit
Full Member
***
Posts: 231




Ignore
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2013, 08:33:53 AM »

For what it's worth, after some investigation, this seems to be at least partly, if not totally, due to a run-up discrepancy ( from about 36 feet to 75 feet ). However, that only should account for about one second, which makes me wonder why 1.79 seconds faster.

I'm still working on it.
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2013, 08:46:06 AM »

Thanks for picking up the ball on that.

FWIW, my son and I hand-timed it, and came out with a numPer much closer to the official time than the Trakus time.  But this is not conclusive since we had to guess when to start the timer, given the run-up. 

The problem is that if the official numPer stands, Lasso's fig two races later on the same card becomes a stakes-level number... from a 16 claimer.  Lasso came back and ran a terrible race out-of-town. 
Of course, there is much precedent for Rudy steeds running one wildly fast turf race, then going bust. 

We shall see.
Report to moderator   Logged
dontdoit
Full Member
***
Posts: 231




Ignore
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2013, 03:36:00 PM »

Internet thread of the year.

Here's hoping Yimmy scored out in the 9th at Aqueduct today.
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2013, 04:05:38 PM »

Apparently I'm not the only one.  Wink  No Asmussen 2nd-time starters but... still, nice.  Grin

Hence, happily, Lasso is NOT a stakes horse, and Trakus has been borne out. 
Report to moderator   Logged
dontdoit
Full Member
***
Posts: 231




Ignore
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2013, 10:30:21 PM »

Apparently I'm not the only one.  Wink  No Asmussen 2nd-time starters but... still, nice.  Grin

Hence, happily, Lasso is NOT a stakes horse, and Trakus has been borne out. 

Dude, with all due respect, that was just handicapping. What you brought to our attention was GREAT stuff. Really great. I credited you on the show for bringing it to our attention.

It gets harder and harder to uncover things to make money in this game. Thanks for pointing this out.
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2013, 11:34:56 AM »

Thank you for the kind words, but in fact YOU are da man:

I've been following the 2yos pretty closely since Mr. Prospector's second crop (do the math on THAT one)... and I didn't give Who's Z Daddy a shot in hell.  You told everyone about him before the  race.

Credit where credit is due.  That was an amazing pick.  
Report to moderator   Logged
Mary Ann
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2223




Ignore
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2013, 08:04:29 PM »

This is interesting. Andy Serling mentioned Barn to Wire on Twitter saying the discrepancy had been addressed on BTW.

Here's what Timeform says about the discrepancy:

http://timeformusblog.com/2013/11/18/today-in-racing-nov-18-2013/
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2013, 08:18:24 PM »

 Smiley
Report to moderator   Logged
dontdoit
Full Member
***
Posts: 231




Ignore
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2013, 11:28:41 PM »

Smiley

I laughed.
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2013, 02:08:07 PM »

Yep, that Serling guy got it right.  But his cohost Blewitt.

*ducks thrown vegetables*

It was very much like that deathless episode with the photo finish camera on the Twilight Zone, which as we all know was a Serling production.  Grin
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2013, 03:56:47 PM »

Lasso's poor performance today strongly suggests that the Trakus numPerz were the correct ones.
Report to moderator   Logged
dontdoit
Full Member
***
Posts: 231




Ignore
« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2013, 12:43:46 AM »

Lasso's poor performance today strongly suggests that the Trakus numPerz were the correct ones.

I think Lasso's performance at Belmont was more about racing on a VERY firm course, and along the rail, which was very strong. The Aqueduct course is completely different, and much less kind to his running style. He was carried by the Belmont Inner Turf.

By the way, the winner of the 5th, Mr. Speaker, is running on Sunday. For what it's worth, the Beyer figs have been changed to reflect the Trakus time. Feel free to take some credit for that.
Report to moderator   Logged
Yimmy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 9264




Ignore
« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2013, 07:47:24 AM »

 Cheesy  Thanks for the heads-up. The point is well-taken about Lasso.  As you lads say, he does indeed seem to have been *dressed up* by the conditions in that one particular race.

The Brisnet numPerzz have Mr. Speaker's maiden win as being perceptibly slower than those of Request and Innovation Economy.  FWIW, I keep my own figs, and I have Mr. Speaker and Request with the same (high) numPer, though Request's closing fraction shows up as a good bit faster than that of the Phipps thing.  It looks like a very innaresting race, though unfortunately I will have to miss it.   Sad



Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.181 seconds with 17 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Breeders' Cup
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy