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Author Topic: Dime Six: GP  (Read 3095 times)
STIVO
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« Reply #50 on: February 06, 2013, 05:14:28 PM »

$111,500 winner. 2 or 3 winning tickets most likely.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #51 on: February 06, 2013, 05:31:43 PM »

$111,500 winner. 2 or 3 winning tickets most likely.

Wow that would be some pretty good dime handle on just today's card, after the 50+% takeout and all the breakage.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
STIVO
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« Reply #52 on: February 07, 2013, 02:49:21 PM »

My ticket today:

ACCEPTED: fcde3-82be2

 GP    #5    $0.10 Pick-6    

1,3,4,8,11,​WT,6,​WT,5,​WT,1,3,5,6,7,​WT,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,​WT,1,7        

$ 40.00
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farquarks
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« Reply #53 on: February 07, 2013, 03:41:42 PM »

Wow that would be some pretty good dime handle on just today's card, after the 50+% takeout and all the breakage.

I saw it was ~$465k on the charts. That's a lotta dimes! What amazes me is that the winners paid:

r5 - $14
r6 - $36
r7 - $52
r8 - $13
r9 - $35
r10 - $22

The fact that there was even one winning 6 of 6 ticket, let alone 3 given the above prices, would seem to indicate it is highly unlikely there will be a solo hit.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #54 on: February 07, 2013, 03:45:08 PM »

I saw it was ~$465k on the charts. That's a lotta dimes! What amazes me is that the winners paid:

r5 - $14
r6 - $36
r7 - $52
r8 - $13
r9 - $35
r10 - $22

The fact that there was even one winning 6 of 6 ticket, let alone 3 given the above prices, would seem to indicate it is highly unlikely there will be a solo hit.

I'm guessing just two. Take out 20% (or whatever) of the pool for track takeout, and then another 40% of what's left to carry over, and you've got something just over $200k left.

So close for both those guys.
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brivolta
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« Reply #55 on: February 09, 2013, 08:35:48 PM »

What are the chances this thing doesn't end up in a mandatory payout on the last day? Gotta be as close to a guarantee as you can get.
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farquarks
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« Reply #56 on: February 11, 2013, 01:09:06 AM »

What are the chances this thing doesn't end up in a mandatory payout on the last day? Gotta be as close to a guarantee as you can get.

I agree that this will go to a mandatory payout. Another $532k was wagered on the P6 today (Sunday). That's over 5million combos - it's now at levels that practically guarantee at least several winning tickets each day. Interestingly that should keep
anyone from going all in (or nearly all in).
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brivolta
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« Reply #57 on: February 11, 2013, 07:50:03 AM »

I agree that this will go to a mandatory payout. Another $532k was wagered on the P6 today (Sunday). That's over 5million combos - it's now at levels that practically guarantee at least several winning tickets each day. Interestingly that should keep
anyone from going all in (or nearly all in).

Look at the prices of some of the winners in yesterday's races. There were several big prices, and it looks like roughly 15 or so winning tickets. How does anyone compile a sinle winnin ticket at this point?
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #58 on: February 11, 2013, 08:54:18 AM »

Look at the prices of some of the winners in yesterday's races. There were several big prices, and it looks like roughly 15 or so winning tickets. How does anyone compile a sinle winnin ticket at this point?

There were 4 horses yesterday that would have paid it out to one winner.....The 2, 4, 7 and 8.......So its far from a lock that it won't be hit
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brivolta
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« Reply #59 on: February 11, 2013, 09:56:52 AM »

There were 4 horses yesterday that would have paid it out to one winner.....The 2, 4, 7 and 8.......So its far from a lock that it won't be hit

Prior to the last race there was a 17/1 winner in a 13 horse field with a near odds on favorite (screams likely single), a 5/1 winner, and a 10/1 winner in a field that had two horses under 2/1 in the first three legs. Even with all that, there were still only four horses that would have paid to a single winner. Two of them were 35/1 and one was over 80/1. Also, look at last Wednesday's sequence. If Wednesday didn't pay to a single winner, good luck finding a card that does.
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #60 on: February 11, 2013, 10:33:59 AM »

Prior to the last race there was a 17/1 winner in a 13 horse field with a near odds on favorite (screams likely single), a 5/1 winner, and a 10/1 winner in a field that had two horses under 2/1 in the first three legs. Even with all that, there were still only four horses that would have paid to a single winner. Two of them were 35/1 and one was over 80/1. Also, look at last Wednesday's sequence. If Wednesday didn't pay to a single winner, good luck finding a card that does.

"Only 4 horses that would paid it to a single winner".....Im not saying its going to be be easy......but when 4 horses out of 10 and one was 17-1 can pay it.....it still has a good chance to happen......I hope it doesn't......I think it could be 20-25 million on closing day if it isnt hit......You have to realize......Guys are routinely playing $4,000 tickets into it......You can get a lot of coverage with 40,000 combos......The guys have the advantage also of getting back 15% of their losses in rebates......So that $4,000 ticket is only costing them $3400
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brivolta
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« Reply #61 on: February 11, 2013, 10:36:13 AM »

"Only 4 horses that would paid it to a single winner".....Im not saying its going to be be easy......but when 4 horses out of 10 and one was 17-1 can pay it.....it still has a good chance to happen......I hope it doesn't......I think it could be 20-25 million on closing day if it isnt hit......You have to realize......Guys are routinely playing $4,000 tickets into it......You can get a lot of coverage with 40,000 combos......The guys have the advantage also of getting back 15% of their losses in rebates......So that $4,000 ticket is only costing them $3400

This is why I don't think you'll have a single winner. The bigger this thing gets, the more of these guys there are.
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #62 on: February 11, 2013, 10:46:23 AM »

This is why I don't think you'll have a single winner. The bigger this thing gets, the more of these guys there are.

I agree 100%.....If it goes another 5 or 6 days.....I dont think there is much of a chance it could be hit alone......What a great thing for racing if they could have this thing carryover until closing day with a must pay......maybe they can get a little positive publicity
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SHOWTIME!!!
brivolta
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« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2013, 10:57:05 AM »

I agree 100%.....If it goes another 5 or 6 days.....I dont think there is much of a chance it could be hit alone......What a great thing for racing if they could have this thing carryover until closing day with a must pay......maybe they can get a little positive publicity

Hypothetically speaking, let's say the carryover is upward of 15 million on closing day. I'm curious to know how large of a ticket the people on this forum would be willing to create in order to get a piece of it. Let's hear it, folks...
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2013, 12:02:52 PM »

Hypothetically speaking, let's say the carryover is upward of 15 million on closing day. I'm curious to know how large of a ticket the people on this forum would be willing to create in order to get a piece of it. Let's hear it, folks...

Im sure there would be at least 5 tickets buying every race....At the end of the meet unfortunately the horseflesh is really depleted at Gulfstream and smaller fields will help it carryover but will deter big tickets......It would cost 100k to buy 6 10 horse fields......Hopefully they could put together 6 big fields for closing day if it comes to that......I could see myself spending 3 or 4k.....But I would prefer to spend that and have 1/3 of a 10k ticket
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SHOWTIME!!!
Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #65 on: February 11, 2013, 12:16:04 PM »

If you are not the only winner you are still getting paid good for a ten cent investment.
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« Reply #66 on: February 11, 2013, 12:22:04 PM »

If you are not the only winner you are still getting paid good for a ten cent investment.

I wonder what the line would be of any winner (shared or solo) having purchased only a single ten cent ticket.
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« Reply #67 on: February 11, 2013, 01:12:18 PM »

I wonder what the line would be of any winner (shared or solo) having purchased only a single ten cent ticket.

I played $40 of quick picks on Saturday (actually 20 and a friend put up 20) and we hit 5 of 6 (but werent live going to the last leg)....we had 41 tickets live after the first race......and NONE of them had Animal Kingdom in a 6 horse field in the 2nd leg which I thought was really weird.......Of course we were glad we didnt have him because the last thing you want is a big chalk
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SHOWTIME!!!
mottoman
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« Reply #68 on: February 11, 2013, 06:21:41 PM »

This is a suckers bet (high takeout).  Now if it was big on the last day with mandatory payout I would be very interested.  Problem is the big guys would be all over it at that point.
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STIVO
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« Reply #69 on: February 13, 2013, 01:18:14 PM »

This is a suckers bet (high takeout).  Now if it was big on the last day with mandatory payout I would be very interested.  Problem is the big guys would be all over it at that point.

If you're thinking jackpot - yes, it's a sucker bet. However, I've seen tickets as high as $100K being hit. I don't mind investing $100 to win $10K.
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STIVO
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« Reply #70 on: February 13, 2013, 02:40:07 PM »

Ticket for 2/13:

Just cannot see the favorite losing the last leg so we singled there. We are thin in the first leg but REGAL REMEDY looks like a standout. We also took a flyer on #10 TWIN KISSES as she drops and gets a fast surface to run on. We threw the Cat Man out on the outside because of the post.

Race #5    02/13/2013
Gulfstream Park
$0.1 Pick-6

# 5,10
WT # 1,4,7,10,11,12
WT # 5,6,9,11
WT # 1,2,3,4,11,14
WT # 1,4,9
WT # 1

$86.40

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brivolta
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« Reply #71 on: February 13, 2013, 03:16:29 PM »

Going to be even tougher for a single winner today considering there was a dead heat in the first leg.
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beobob
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« Reply #72 on: February 13, 2013, 03:50:32 PM »

Is it even worth while to handicap these races anymore? I would imagine that anything I see will be seen by someone else, especially as the pool grows and more players are in.  Add to that the quick picks, I don't see how even a great handicapper can hope to have a chance. Quick pick might be the best way to go.
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mel4600
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« Reply #73 on: February 13, 2013, 03:55:21 PM »

Is it even worth while to handicap these races anymore? I would imagine that anything I see will be seen by someone else, especially as the pool grows and more players are in.  Add to that the quick picks, I don't see how even a great handicapper can hope to have a chance. Quick pick might be the best way to go.

Last day of meet is mandatory payout.
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brivolta
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« Reply #74 on: February 15, 2013, 07:48:07 AM »

Already announced off turf today
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