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Author Topic: New derby 139 point system baffles dumb trainers  (Read 1282 times)
Secretariat
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« on: January 28, 2013, 11:01:16 PM »

Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby, the first two finishers in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) Jan. 26 at Gulfstream Park, are likely headed for a rematch in the $1 million Florida Derby (gr. I).

Trainers Eddie Plesa Jr., who conditions Holy Bull victor Itsmyluckyday, and Todd Pletcher, who oversees 2012 juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby, cited the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby at Gulfstream March 30 as the likely next stop for their respective charges.

well ..lets analyze this decision in terms of derby points..

the fountain of youth is run on february 23 ($400,000) {{ 50,20,10,5 }}
the florida derby march 30 ($1 million) {{ 100, 40, 20 , 10}}


now if both these colts skip the 2nd round, === points {{ 50, 20,10,5}}
and the winner and place colt from the FOY (2nd round) win the grade 1 race the florida derby,
there is a good possibility both the winner and place colt of the Holy Bull are OUT.

winning the holy bull and the place ..is like 10 points and 5 points.
Shanghi boobies has 24 points ,
if he is not the winner or the place colt in the florida derby, he may not get in the derby 139
if he does less than places in the fla derby he gets 44 points..not enough to be ASSURED a derby gate
he has to run a different path than the one outlined.
he just lost the holy bull

even more so for Itsmyluckyday,
if he skips the FOY and the 50, or 20 points,
and he gets less than a win or place in the florida derby , he is flat out , not in the derby 139
he has 10 points, a show in the florida derby gets you 20 points, thats 30 in total..not enough

the win and place colts from the fountain of youth,
( instead of these 2 who ran in the holy bull )
will run in the florida derby also against them.

THEY have to run again in the fla derby,
especailly the place colt,
becasue the 50 points for the win in the FOY is not going to get you in the kentucky derby...
as a matter of defense , to prevent someone else from dropping you down the point laddder they will run in the fla derby from the FOY

so you have 4 colts at a minimum, that are shooting for the 100 points win in the fla derby, and the 50 points (place ) in the fla derby.

2 of them are going to lose, and the other 2,
well only one of those can be the show colt,
plus the added competiton of those ho are shooting for the 100 or 50 points.
this will be a 14 or 16 colt field , to get those points.

you cannot arrogantly assume, your winner of a grade 3 race is going to be in a position to win 100 points in 60 days.

you have to run in at least three races at 3 to be assured of entry.

dead on , or dead out..
win or lose,
win, place in the florida derby or out..

one card monty,
flip a coin..


you have to plan better than that.

« Last Edit: January 28, 2013, 11:12:34 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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APCD Dan
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2013, 11:17:02 PM »

I think the whole idea was to get them to run in more prep races and earn their way into the Derby.  In the past, all you had to do was win the BC Juvenile or some Dubai race and you were in due to the big purses involved.

I think it is a good start to improving the Derby field (except for the exclusion of the Illinois Derby).  Of course, there will be a lot of fine tuning done for next year as there are some flaws in the system, both seen and unseen.
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2013, 09:10:05 AM »

How would you have any idea of whats in or out since its never been done before? You say 50 points wont get you in.....On what are you basing that assessment?
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SHOWTIME!!!
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2013, 09:49:08 AM »

How would you have any idea of whats in or out since its never been done before? You say 50 points wont get you in.....On what are you basing that assessment?

Considering that the highest total aside from Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents is 11, most other horses have a tough row to hoe to keep these two out of the top 20, or for that matter, to exceed 50 points themselves. IMHO.

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Press-Release/article/012713-updated-road-to-the-kentucky-derby-oaks-point-standings

« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 09:50:53 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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Secretariat
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2013, 10:15:49 AM »

How would you have any idea of whats in or out since its never been done before? You say 50 points wont get you in.....On what are you basing that assessment?

dude, i am not going to do your homework for you.

there are 8, 100 point, grade 1 races and 7, grade 2, 50 point races.

you take an hour or 2 out of your own life and strain your mind to figure out the progression of the ponies through the 6 pack of graded venues and the other assorted nonsense in the point grid on the path to derby 139.

i have lots of ideas becasue i follow the sport, your ignorance is showing, might want to cover that up
« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 10:18:04 AM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2013, 09:24:09 PM »

Maybe they are going to run in races that make the most sense for the development of the horses.  I know that's a strange idea, and obviously one that didn't occur to you, but you might want to consider it.  It's also possible that you're a whole bunch sharper than either of those trainers.  But I wouldn't bet on it.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2013, 09:30:43 PM »

Maybe they are going to run in races that make the most sense for the development of the horses.  I know that's a strange idea, and obviously one that didn't occur to you, but you might want to consider it.  It's also possible that you're a whole bunch sharper than either of those trainers.  But I wouldn't bet on it.

they have the bc juvy winner and the derby 139 point leader.
they actlike he won the holy bull, and the money is the key.

it is not the money now.

they are assuming they will win or place in the florida derby, ..
thats thier ONE shot, their choice

continued below
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2013, 09:36:07 PM »

this board is retarded, it doesn't allow your entire post brfore it starts flippin about.

anyways,
as far as the development of the colt as a motivation...ahh ?? hmmm...okay, it you think thats valid here in this conversation...fine..

they are taking a big risk,

they were just defeated at GP in the holy Bull caught at the wire and pressed ..the florida derby is 110 yards longer.

besides that , the grade 2 colts will run in the fountain of youth, 30 days from now, do youthink the win and plac ecolts fromthatone are going to skip the fla derby?

its a big risk, and they need to run in the FOY or another race 30 days from now to get at least 10 points more.

thats what the system is designed to do ..run regular, not accumulate and rest on reputation just to get a ticket to the paddock.
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2013, 09:38:47 PM »

with regard to your wagering choices,
you can bet upon whatever you fancy
it is of little concern to me sir.
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2013, 09:56:54 PM »

reflecting back on the old system..at this point in time, after the lecomte and holy bull had been run, with money as the gate key..about 8 tp 10 derby spots were already taken.

the BCJuvy win and place...perhaps show
the BCturf Win and place perhaps show
the delta millions win and place, perhaps show,
plus the winners of all the grade 1 Juvy races, the champagne, maybe the remsen, the cash call futurity win and place.

thats how things were..thats about 10 places for certain that would have had the cash to run in derby 139

that was then...before

NOW..
no one,
not one colt has a secure position in the derby 139 gate..not one

the next 90 days will be an interesting, exciting , new dimension to the game.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 09:59:33 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2013, 10:11:04 PM »

I don't think Pletcher is baffled by the point system, and I sure as hell don't think he's dumb.  It's second grade math--he can manage it.
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beobob
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« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2013, 10:20:10 PM »

If nothing else, this new system ends laurel resting.
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faster horses
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« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2013, 10:34:44 PM »

You can no longer lay up in Maryland?
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beobob
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« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2013, 10:38:35 PM »

You can no longer lay up in Maryland?

Aren't you going to thank me for teeing that up for you?    laughing guy
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Secretariat
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2013, 09:54:40 AM »

I don't think Pletcher is baffled by the point system, and I sure as hell don't think he's dumb.  It's second grade math--he can manage it.

can he ?
i did the math for your dumb ass...what more can i type.
the colt just lost on the same track at 8.5f.
he has to win or place in the florida derby to get into the kentucky derby, or he is at hawthorne looking for a gate spot in pimlico.
instead of just hating those whose ideas surpass your own, open your mind to what is being typed..idiot.
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« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2013, 09:35:44 AM »

Turf writer Richard Eng says he thinks it will take just 40 to be in the gate on Derby Day.

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/forty-could-be-magic-number-for-derby-hopefuls-189339791.html
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2013, 10:04:49 AM »

Terry that doesn't change what I have been typing, he must win or place in the Fla derby, if he shows he has 44 points..he has no idea with certainty if "40" is th emagic number...and if it is...is 4 points worth risking a shot at a gate position.

the point system was designed to be run like a round robin elimination tournament , you have to play in each round.
if pletcher skips the 2nd round with the BC champ, he is rolling the dice, on 3 million bucks, his colt will win place...or show.at GP where he just lost..  anything less he is out.

i dont see bobby as a streetsense

we will know in 60 days..
right now he is on top, before the fla derby is run, there will be 20 colts ahead of him in points, at least
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« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2013, 08:47:49 PM »

While we are waiting for the lights to go back on at the Super Dome, here's a good article written by Bob Ehalt on the Derby point system:

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/blog/_/name/ehalt_bob/id/8911105/get-point
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« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2013, 10:08:03 PM »

Updated points:

http://turfnsport.com/2013-kentucky-derby-point-standings/
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2013, 12:49:08 AM »

If nothing else, the Kentucky Derby points system is good because it gets people talking. For a couple years there the Futures Wager was the talk, and now hardly anyone pays attention, but now this is it. It's new. It's something to argue about. It's a new marketing thing. Ultimately it will probably be a bore. But for now it's news.
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« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2013, 10:11:24 AM »

i think it supposed to mirror somewhat the NCAA tournamanet that goes on in march madness..aftert that we will havwe april future wagers...with th ebig game on 5-4-2013..( its easy to rememeber the date casue it has the numbers 0-5 all in it, just once..hehehe)
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2013, 11:40:48 AM »

lest revisit this thread on a fine beautiful Easter morning

let's see how many people i can indict for their stupidity

hehehehehehe
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2013, 11:42:17 AM »

How would you have any idea of whats in or out since its never been done before? You say 50 points wont get you in.....On what are you basing that assessment?

on thinking about it..how did you come to your conclusion ?
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« Reply #23 on: March 31, 2013, 11:43:22 AM »

Maybe they are going to run in races that make the most sense for the development of the horses.  I know that's a strange idea, and obviously one that didn't occur to you, but you might want to consider it.  It's also possible that you're a whole bunch sharper than either of those trainers.  But I wouldn't bet on it.

perhaps you should reconsider your bet
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2013, 11:49:20 AM »

lest revisit this thread on a fine beautiful Easter morning

let's see how many people i can indict for their stupidity

hehehehehehe

#1 stupid thinking is that Shanghai Bobby might have picked up the winner's points in the FOY. The horse has proven to be "short".

And #2 as for Itsmyluckyday, with the 40 he picked up yesterday, he's now in a 5th place tie with 50, so he's probably going to make it.

« Last Edit: March 31, 2013, 12:44:27 PM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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