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Author Topic: What does Shanghai Bobby have to do to win?  (Read 1115 times)
journalstuff
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« on: January 23, 2013, 10:33:22 PM »

$400,000 Holy Bull Stakes  (gr. III, race 10, 5:05 p.m. ET), 3YOs 1 1/16 miles (dirt)
 
PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
 
 
 
1.Shanghai Bobby (KY), R. Napravnik, 122, T A Pletcher
 
2. Frac Daddy (KY), D. Cohen, 116, K G McPeek
 
3. Clearly Now (KY), L. Saez, 116, B A Lynch
 
4. Bern Identity (KY), P. Lopez, 122, K J Breen
 
5. Sr. Quisqueyano (FL), J. Rosario, 120, L Olivares
 
6. Dewey Square (KY), C.J. Lanerie, 116, D L Romans
 
7. Itsmyluckyday (KY), E. Trujillo, 120, E Plesa, Jr.
 
8. Tulira Castle (KY), J. Castellano, 116, J P DiVito
 
9. Fredricksburg (KY), J.R. Velazquez, 116, M R Matz
 
10. Joshua's Comprise (FL), K.J. Desormeaux, 116, B R Rose
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orioles
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2013, 10:39:08 PM »

Cross the wire first
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STIVO
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« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2013, 12:23:41 PM »

I admire his grit. He's just not fast enough the longer they go. He staggered home in the BC. On Saturday, he has an inside draw and I see some others in here that jump up. I'm really liking Dewey Square. He's ready for a big move forward for his 3YO bow.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2013, 12:42:45 PM »

This is GP,
he has the rail.

if he can't win off the rail at 8.5f here, he might as well fold it in and shoot for the undecard sprint 5-4-2013
good group of colts 4 or 5 can win..but the points mean little
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2013, 01:10:51 PM »

I read a DRF article on how great the rail is and how bad of a draw Dewey got. The 6 hole has won the second most races at this distance. Do people check the damn percentages of winning posts? lol.
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2013, 01:32:33 PM »

Except on days where the rail might be bad,drawing inside at GP going 8.5 furlongs is a huge advantage.
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STIVO
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2013, 02:31:23 PM »

Except on days where the rail might be bad,drawing inside at GP going 8.5 furlongs is a huge advantage.

The 3 hole has won 15 races over 1 mile at the meet. The one & two hole have won 8. The 6 hole has won 7 races.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/handicapping/post-position-stats
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2013, 02:44:33 PM »

The 3 hole has won 15 races over 1 mile at the meet. The one & two hole have won 8. The 6 hole has won 7 races.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/handicapping/post-position-stats

The 3 hole has won 15 races over 1 mile?
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2013, 04:06:55 PM »

The 3 hole has won 15 races over 1 mile at the meet. The one & two hole have won 8. The 6 hole has won 7 races.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/handicapping/post-position-stats

That graphic on their site can be misleading because it factors in the one-turn mile dirt races with a very long run into the turn and lumps them in as exactly the same as 8.5f races around two turns with a very short run into the first turn.

http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-park-shanghai-bobby-rail-field-10-holy-bull-stakes

Quote
Fourteen of the 21 races already decided at 1 1/16 miles here this winter have been won by horses breaking from posts 1-3.
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STIVO
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« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2013, 11:49:24 PM »

Brian, that is actually a great point. Not sure why the site cannot be more specific.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2013, 01:07:38 AM »

Brian, that is actually a great point. Not sure why the site cannot be more specific.

Totally agree, but it probably something to do with the way they pull the data from a central database.

At a place like Santa Anita, it doesn't much matter -- anything over a mile is around two turns, so the sample is consistent. But at places with a one-turn mile (including what I think we see at Arlington), those mile races seem to play out much more like long-distance sprints than they do true route races.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2013, 02:53:31 PM »

Nice article on his rider:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jan/25/rosie-napravnik-shanghai-bobby-kentucky-derby

Rosie Napravnik: 'I had a dream of winning the Derby on Shanghai Bobby'

What was interesting was this:

""I'm really, really worried about how it's going to turn out. It could take a negative turn at any point," says Napravnik, referring to an article about her due to be published in a major New York magazine. The interview, she believes, fared badly, and she's concerned that she'll be portrayed in an unflattering light."
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2013, 06:07:39 PM »

GP 8.5 furlongs dirt
                    starts   win                               ROI w/p/s
PP-1             00021  00004    19% 48% 62%    0.80 1.76 1.33     
PP-2             00021  00005    24% 38% 48%    4.53 2.05 1.28       
PP-3             00021  00005    24% 29% 43%    0.86 0.55 0.70     
PP-4             00021  00001    05% 14% 43%    0.09 0.47 0.89       
PP-5             00021  00002    10% 19% 24%    0.31 0.29 0.34     
PP-6             00020  00003    15% 20% 40%    0.77 0.42 0.88       
PP-7             00019  00000    00% 21% 26%    0.00 0.70 0.44             
PP-8             00014  00000    00% 07% 07%    0.00 0.17 0.16             
PP-9             00009  00000    00% 00% 11%    0.00 0.00 0.19               
PP-10            00007  00000    00% 14% 14%    0.00 0.37 0.23               
PP-11            00005  00000    00% 00% 00%    0.00 0.00 0.00               
PP-12            00003  00001    33% 33% 33%    1.63 1.00 0.53   
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2013, 06:11:12 PM »

GP 8f dirt

PP-1             00059  00007    12% 37% 51%    0.30 1.22 1.02   
PP-2             00059  00009    15% 31% 53%    1.18 0.95 1.18   
PP-3             00059  00013    22% 36% 46%    0.96 1.14 0.99   
PP-4             00059  00007    12% 25% 34%    0.74 0.64 0.71   
PP-5             00058  00003    05% 14% 21%    0.37 0.29 0.33   
PP-6             00058  00006    10% 17% 29%    0.68 0.44 0.57   
PP-7             00050  00006    12% 18% 32%    0.68 0.62 0.70   
PP-8             00039  00005    13% 18% 28%    0.66 0.45 0.49   
PP-9             00026  00002    08% 19% 35%    0.18 0.38 0.53   
PP-10            00014  00001    07% 14% 14%    0.20 0.26 0.20   
PP-11            00006  00000    00% 17% 33%    0.00 0.25 0.70           
PP-12            00001  00000    00% 00% 00%    0.00 0.00 0.00         
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STIVO
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« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2013, 07:08:29 PM »

Well, I like Dewey a lot and I really don't think the 6 hole will be a problem.
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2013, 12:34:59 PM »

Dewey is getting the talk right now.  Bc horses havent bounced back with many wins.  Although with new point system trainers have to adjust their training.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2013, 05:54:58 PM »

shanghi *** needs to have more than just another itsmyluckyday in order to win this
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2013, 06:35:05 PM »

The 7 was primed and ready.  the point system is going to deter 2yr old racing.
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2013, 09:22:05 AM »

Itsmyluckyday was more than just lucky, he ran a hell of a fast race.   1:35:1 is a fast ass mile and looking at the charts, he set a new track record for 1 1/16 at Gulfstream.   I see the last track record was set in 2012 and 1 1/16 mile may not be run often, so it may not be that significant but 3 year olds setting records is nice to see.    Shanghai Bobby set the pace up nicely for IMLD and Elvis gave him a heck of a nice ride.    Congratulations to the winner.
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2013, 09:39:28 AM »

Trainer Rusty is cutting back on two year olds accomplishmnets that bad? It would be nice to see a full season of the three year old's compete , and not dropping by the way side by mid summer! Just my thought.
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« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2013, 11:06:46 AM »

Dewey is getting the talk right now.  Bc horses havent bounced back with many wins.  Although with new point system trainers have to adjust their training.

I pegged Dewey on or near the lead yesterday. Very rank and near the rear for about the first 1/4 mile. I knew I lost when I saw that.
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2013, 12:29:06 PM »

I dont like two year old racing.   Trainers do.
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STIVO
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« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2013, 12:02:38 PM »

The Winner, Itsmyluckyday, got a 104 BSF!  Shocked
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g3tPWNed_24
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2013, 03:22:49 PM »

Havent read anything bout the plans for him post race but SB will probaly need a rocket up his a$$ to win at anything further than a mile and a sixteenth. Hopefully they do the right thing by the horse which im sure they will. Nothing wrong with being a top horse at a mile or <! trinniberg as we all know had no biz being in the derby last year  went on to win the BC sprint
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