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Author Topic: What do you do when you Handicap?  (Read 1327 times)
journalstuff
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« on: January 13, 2013, 10:46:13 AM »

What do you in your handicapping? Strategies.
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jgp
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2013, 10:48:08 AM »

Turn on some beyonce and try to channel my inner gay-z
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journalstuff
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2013, 10:50:20 AM »

No this my definition of what I expect to say:

"What I do in my handicapping is that I like to look at the horses recent form to see if their races their coming out of are productive races. I like to see if they made up alot of ground in the recent start. I look at workouts especially in maiden races and pedigrees to see if they're bred to go the routes or sprints. If horses are crying for more distance then I'd try to remember their races to see if that's what distance they need. I often like to pick horses if they're dropping in class or not. I like to look a percentages like jock/trainer combo, trainer percentages with layoff, 2nd time and first time out. That's how I do my handicapping."

p.s. you way off topic
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journalstuff
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2013, 11:44:51 AM »

When I was starting to handicap, I began to buy a few handicapping books. I bought Brad Free's Handicapping 101. It was a very useful read for me. I often sometimes read Brad's handicapping analysis in the form. I also read Bet With The Best 2 Longshots where handicappers like Beyer, Brohammer, Crist, Davidowitz, Free, Litfin, Quinn, Shuback, Stich and Watchmaker did a chapter on what they do with their handicapping. That's basically how I learned. Of course I like to hear other people's opinions on TV.
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2013, 12:27:11 PM »

I prefer brisnet first, 2nd drf.  I need 10 - 12 running lines.  the value is often found there.  recent form is overrated.   those people who handicap with programs with 3 running lines are being lazy and wasting their time.   that being said my first week playing horses I won $ using the 3 line programs from arlington.  Thats why I still play horses.  But then you want luck to turn into semi skill.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2013, 11:08:19 PM by Trainer Rusty » Report to moderator   Logged
journalstuff
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2013, 12:41:09 PM »

I don't bet short fields. I like to bet the fields that are 8 horses and above in a horse race. Like here in CA, I'd like to less 5 to 7 horse fields in a full card. I wanna see full fields like we see at GP or in NY during the Spring and Summer and Fall.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2013, 02:15:59 PM »

i usually tune into real housewifes of new jersey, then bet the saddle color cloth of the lady wearing the hottest dress, or ny favorite dress in that weeks show

if i like 2 outfits,
i bet the exacta based upon the saddle color/dress match...boxed of course..

then i bet the show horse based upon their shoes..
i match their shoes with a color they are wearing, and then pick that saddle cloth.

its really a problem with a color like mauve..i have troble matching that with a saddle color cloth..

sometimes my win pick, my fav dress, will also have my fav shoes...
so then i will win /place that one..

if a "kitten horse" is running, and they have my fav color dress , i use them in exotic pick 3's and daily doubles...thats a sure winner..
« Last Edit: January 13, 2013, 02:17:34 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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journalstuff
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2013, 02:18:43 PM »

i usually tune into real housewifes of new jersey, then bet the saddle color cloth of the lady wearing the hottest dress, or ny favorite dress in that weeks show

if i like 2 outfits,
i bet the exacta based upon the saddle color/dress match...boxed of course..

then i bet the show horse based upon their shoes..
i match their shoes with a color they are wearing, and then pick that saddle cloth.

its really a problem with a color like mauve..i have troble matching that with a saddle color cloth..

sometimes my win pick, my fav dress, will also have my fav shoes...
so then i will win /place that one..

if a "kitten horse" is running, and they have my fav color dress , i use them in exotic pick 3's and daily doubles...thats a sure winner..

Hahahaha funny you wish. That's not what I do. In your dreams I do. Am being serious here.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2013, 02:19:44 PM »

For a year, I bought Toby Turrell winner's card to learn more about handicapping. It's useful especially since he's a clocker who IMO picks horses based on their works. He's a good workouts handicapper.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2013, 02:32:17 PM »

first, you have to read the form, if you dont take the time to learn how to read the drf form, 6 to 8 weeks..your wasting your time...go to drf.com, search for "how to read the form"..

this is not the end of handicapping, just the beginning..once you know how to read the form, you are in a position, to understand what is goin on..

can you tell me what aceppatable fractiuons are in an 8f race..
how many yards are in a 10f race ?
 
whats an accetable last quarter in a garde 1 sprint ?


when you can grasp the pebble from my hand grasshooper..
you can go to the window alone.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2013, 02:45:48 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2013, 02:42:37 PM »

next... and i typed this to you before...go to chef -de- race, and find out who the chiefs of the breed (thoroughbreds) are

then go to bloodhorse and see who the leading sires are this year..


once you have done all this for months
after about the same time it takes to get out of high school..

you will be in a postion to try to grasp that pebble..
so if you want to excel at the game..you need..

eyesight.. first and foremost
a mathmatic apptitude
time..years
great memory

handicapping requires
reading the form,
watching the races of the animals in the race previously run
or
remembering the races they have run

using the techniques YOU develope over the years
comparing what is in the form
to what you know to be true
after spednding years doing just that..

handicapping is not something you buy,
its not a cell phone..

it is an art
it is a science
it involves logic
in involves animals 5 times your size with 2000 foot pounds of thrust
it is a fuzzy combination of all of these , and even more

it is not all numbers,
and it is not all legal at times

there is no formula

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journalstuff
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2013, 02:48:35 PM »

I like to bet my best bet of the days across the board wagers.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2013, 02:50:18 PM »

thats must be the fav dress - hair - shoes combo of the housewife show
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2013, 04:05:49 PM »

I like spending a beautiful afternoon at the track hanging with my buddies.  Then my friend Bill explains to us after each race why the horse that won, won and why we should have seen it.

Best post race handicapper ever.
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Daddys Next
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2013, 09:28:07 PM »

journalstuff   -   First, thanks for trying to bring up a serious discussion.  Second, while I love horse racing and handicapping, it sure is a hard sport to nail.  There are a ton of variables. One angle that I am starting to appreciate more often is that there are definitely horses for courses, particularly with the polytrack and other all weather surfaces.  Some horses seem to like all weather, and some not so much.  I find that I like to bet horses at tracks like Turfway Park or Tampa Bay (tracks where I feel horses either like the surface (although Tampa is not artificial, I still think some horses take to that track, and some don't) if they have done well over that specific track before.  I like to see that they were making up ground at the end of their most recent race over that surface, and not quiting.  If I see that they were quiting previously, then I don't like them so much if running against the same class of horse.  If they did make up ground in their last race over the same surface, I think there might still be "gas in the tank" for the next race.  But, more often than not nowadays, I will bet the horse to show or place, and not always to win.  Sometimes things happen in a race, and a horse has a hard time to overcome an event in the race, so I like to leave a margin for error, thus making only place or show bets.   All that said, you have to stay away from the overbet favorites.  You have to look for value in the second thru fourth picks to get a bit more value.  Look when favorites are vulnerable.  Maybe shippers from another track that won't like today's surface.  It is a tough sport to beat.   
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Epsom Derby
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2013, 10:51:30 PM »

To quote Daddy's Next "It's a tough sport to beat", and the late Jack Klugman in the horse racing episode of The Odd Couple "That's why they call it gambling", I agree with some other posters.

To answer your question for myself personally, in the States, I tend to be a trip handicapper for my primary source. Ground condition is also a major factor.

But like others have said, so many variables. I think we all develop unique handicapping styles. Otherwise we'd have a 1/5 every run.
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Louie Weedelbaum
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2013, 09:38:50 AM »

I prefer brisnet first, 2nd drf.  I need 10 - 12 running lines.  the value is often found there.  recent form is overrated.   those people who handicap with programs with 3 running lines are being lazy and wasting their time.   that being said my first week playing horses I won $ using the 3 line programs from arlington.  Thats why I still play horses.  But then you want luck to turn into semi skill.

A program with only 3 running lines?  Where do they have that? 
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journalstuff
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« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2013, 10:32:32 AM »

I like Pick 3's more than Pick 6's. Maybe pick 4's on ocassion. But more of a pick 3 player. Sometimes if it's a tough card I don't play pick 3's.
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STIVO
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« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2013, 11:58:18 AM »

I love the Dime 6 at GP. I love P-4's and P-5's.

Some Capping angles I use:

1. First Turf going long after a 6 panel dud on dirt.

2. MSW to Mdn Claiming

3. Horse for Course

4. 2nd off Layoff

5. Also, it's good to just know a few trainers!  Wink
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STIVO
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2013, 11:59:36 AM »

A program with only 3 running lines?  Where do they have that? 

Oaklawn Park has the very worst programs....just like that. I get the formulator on DRF. Also, Race Replays are HUGE!!! Watch the gallop outs.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2013, 12:44:55 PM »

Race Replays are HUGE!!! Watch the gallop outs.

This.

No better source of next out price plays than from watching race replays, IMO.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2013, 01:55:36 PM »

Sometimes I memorize a horse's recent start. I typically like to play the horses I remember how they did in their most recent start.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2013, 07:11:25 PM »

what do you do when you handicapp..

well somtimes i'll have dinner, or a snack

other times i might have tvg on in the background, unless they have a 20 something on audio, who is clueless with regard to music, like that kids audio engineer on tvg with the big eyebrows..gino ? maybe..terrible show, terrible audio.

but i sway from topic...while i handicapp

if the cats around we'll play "fetch" with a little brown stuffed mouse,its 2, it seems to enjoy playing fetch while the races are on, i think its the excited voice thing, he likes marshall tucler, and running and fetching while thats on especially..desert skies..oh my..now thats music  -what happened ?

anyways..

i ususally just focus on the handicapping when i handicapp..sometimes i refer to forums and posters to see who they fancy in a particular race or venue, after i narrow down the selection.

well thats about it..what do you ddo when you handicapp ?

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Secretariat
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« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2013, 07:15:39 PM »

..grasshopper ..start here ~~

.. dunno...http://www1.drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html


DOUBLE CLICK ON EACH PURPLE HIGHLIGHTED SECTION
and read the drop down menus..

see you in 2 days
« Last Edit: January 14, 2013, 07:17:21 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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journalstuff
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« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2013, 12:24:12 AM »

Better to look for fit horses rather than distraction.
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