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Author Topic: Is a bad driver colony necessarily a bad thing for gamblers?  (Read 1231 times)
ThePaceMaker
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« on: November 09, 2012, 04:21:48 PM »

When a field is full of bad drivers (a lot of whom aren't seasoned and still learning) the expected doesn't happen as often as it does at an A track. Look at BLMP's favorite win % compared to A tracks. When relatively novice drivers are on favored horses, it's only natural that they bungle the job more often than say Sears or Tetrick. If nobody really knows what they're doing out there doesn't that increase the chances favored horses don't win? (Thus increasing prices?) I know that a bad colony decreases confidence and makes a bettor hesitant to really bet large on a seemingly unbeatable favorite but the plus side is your chances of hitting big exotics for relatively low risk increases. While there are pluses and minuses regarding awful colonies do the negatives necessarily outweigh the positives? I'm very confident BLMP weak colony is main reason for low % of favorites winning- isn't that what gamblers want? I'm a relative novice compared to you guys, curious to hear what you all think
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zoot
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2012, 04:33:25 PM »

nothing is worse than 1 or 2 drivers and/or trainers dominating a venue. back in late 70's early 80's john c and billy o  were named on 70% of the entries on the overnight. they could pick and choose the whole card. we know what pena does to a card at yonkers. races need to be competitive in all areas to attract the betting dollar
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ThePaceMaker
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2012, 05:01:42 PM »

Good call, I guess I'm specifically speaking about Chicago here but aside from Oosting .306 there isn't a guy over .280. While I used to love/adore Charlino @ NFLD it made hitting exotics for decent prices tough. But I'm not sure that applies at BLMP?
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TheRedMile
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2012, 05:55:51 PM »

pacmaker what do you consider a very low % of favs winning ?

websites for the tracks below list the following  winning favs %
 balmoral  just over 39%
 mohawk  just under 39%
meadowlands  42%
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ThePaceMaker
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2012, 05:58:32 PM »

Ah, I guess that's changed a bit, wasnt Bal at something like 33% for awhile? Are there any stats available regarding average payouts in exotic pools/winners? Thanks for correction btw, even if it shits on my prev statement  Grin
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TheRedMile
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2012, 06:01:46 PM »

cannot say what it was previously at balmoral
i do think with the open stretch it is a touch higher than it would be without it
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Yimmy
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2012, 08:28:12 PM »

Blimpie has a lower percentage of winning favorites because speed is almost invariably dead there, period.
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the exactorman
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2012, 12:04:45 AM »

In response to your original question, I do not think its a bad thing if a driver colony is not good if they make competent moves. What I really dont like is a track which has 1 dominant driver. For example I stopped playing Yonkers when Case was dominant, same when Case went to Northfield, same when Case was at Plainridge, and I dont like Meadows because Palone drives against a bunch of Amish and dominates year after year. I would rather a colony be evenly matched whether they are good or bad, although I obviously would much rather have a GOOD evenly matched group of drivers.
How I look at it, if you have an 8 horse race, and there is a horse you feel cant lose, if you can say that no matter what driver drove the horse in the race they would have won, thats the kind of place I like to bet. Mohawk/Woodbine come to mind because I think that entire crew there is good and evenly matched...JMO...
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ThePaceMaker
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2012, 12:21:21 AM »

The thing I hate the most is when an entire colony idolizes one guy like Palone or Brennan and try not to get in his way. HATE HATE HATE that stuff
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2012, 12:29:41 AM »

The thing I hate the most is when an entire colony idolizes one guy like Palone or Brennan and try not to get in his way. HATE HATE HATE that stuff
I use to see that here but those drivers r gone now So it makes it much better racing!
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sulkyfromouterspace
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2012, 05:54:02 AM »

Rotate drivers...like they do in jai alia.....then you will see more competitive races.... enough of this ...burke/gingras/palone.....coleman/brennan....  pena/brennan...   you get the point.... they are drivers...all should have licenses....   prices would be huge.....    unless this happens....  we will always see the $2.10 win price.....  i know this will never happen.... but these monoplolies have to stop...should be illegal... screwy


 head shake
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Yimmy
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« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2012, 08:32:25 AM »

In response to your original question, I do not think its a bad thing if a driver colony is not good if they make competent moves. What I really dont like is a track which has 1 dominant driver. For example I stopped playing Yonkers when Case was dominant, same when Case went to Northfield, same when Case was at Plainridge, and I dont like Meadows because Palone drives against a bunch of Amish and dominates year after year. I would rather a colony be evenly matched whether they are good or bad, although I obviously would much rather have a GOOD evenly matched group of drivers.
How I look at it, if you have an 8 horse race, and there is a horse you feel cant lose, if you can say that no matter what driver drove the horse in the race they would have won, thats the kind of place I like to bet. Mohawk/Woodbine come to mind because I think that entire crew there is good and evenly matched...JMO...

CREDITED.  Smiley
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ThePaceMaker
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2012, 12:57:18 PM »

Not to sound like a smartass but isn't making competent moves what makes a driver good?
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clubhouse
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2012, 01:36:17 PM »

Not to sound like a smartass but isn't making competent moves what makes a driver good?

That is part of the package. The other is to keep your horse going forward.
The 6th at Freehold just finished and Harry Landy made the winning move at the start by leaving and geting a 2 hole trip and then he made the losing move by not waiting for passing lane. He got zero out of his horse so he might not have won any way but he killed his chances by pulling.
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MR.DALRAE
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2012, 12:39:46 AM »

WORST BETTING COMBO ,,,BAD DRIVERS ON A MILE TRACK
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the exactorman
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2012, 03:30:04 AM »

That is part of the package. The other is to keep your horse going forward.
The 6th at Freehold just finished and Harry Landy made the winning move at the start by leaving and geting a 2 hole trip and then he made the losing move by not waiting for passing lane. He got zero out of his horse so he might not have won any way but he killed his chances by pulling.
Club: I didnt see the Harry Landy drive but I trust your opinion. If there is one thing that shows me incompetence its when a driver has his horse is in the pocket with pace behind leader and 3rd horse is well back, and the horse in the 2-hole has 2 options: pull at top of stretch or use passing lane. Why in the world would a driver use the passing lane in that instance? I have seen many horses who wont excelerate in the passing lane, maybe because of tight quarters? Some bad drivers continue to do this, over and over...makes no sense, unless its a "no-try"....
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FVRedhot
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« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2012, 07:49:28 PM »

Beyond your wildest dreams, yes! 
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FVRedhot
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« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2012, 08:14:11 PM »

Race 9 at the Meadows in 2 minutes is a good example.  I think the 3 would run away and hide without a relic in the bike.  But with Snyder up, I just sit and watch.  If the 3 wins or loses, I don't really care.  But horse for horse, she's the best in here rigt now.
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2012, 09:27:54 PM »

In response to your original question, I do not think its a bad thing if a driver colony is not good if they make competent moves. What I really dont like is a track which has 1 dominant driver. For example I stopped playing Yonkers when Case was dominant, same when Case went to Northfield, same when Case was at Plainridge, and I dont like Meadows because Palone drives against a bunch of Amish and dominates year after year. I would rather a colony be evenly matched whether they are good or bad, although I obviously would much rather have a GOOD evenly matched group of drivers.
How I look at it, if you have an 8 horse race, and there is a horse you feel cant lose, if you can say that no matter what driver drove the horse in the race they would have won, thats the kind of place I like to bet. Mohawk/Woodbine come to mind because I think that entire crew there is good and evenly matched...JMO...
That is so well put u are very interesting!
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clubhouse
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« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2012, 09:29:23 PM »

Club: I didnt see the Harry Landy drive but I trust your opinion. If there is one thing that shows me incompetence its when a driver has his horse is in the pocket with pace behind leader and 3rd horse is well back, and the horse in the 2-hole has 2 options: pull at top of stretch or use passing lane. Why in the world would a driver use the passing lane in that instance? I have seen many horses who wont excelerate in the passing lane, maybe because of tight quarters? Some bad drivers continue to do this, over and over...makes no sense, unless its a "no-try"....

I agree with what you say but on this particular day the rail was the place to be. The outside part of the track must have been heavy and it was almost impossible to advance. In addition to that Harry took the turn a bit wide which cost about 1/2 length which is huge with the short stretch.
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clubhouse
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« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2012, 09:56:57 PM »

WORST BETTING COMBO ,,,BAD DRIVERS ON A MILE TRACK

I always thought you needed more skill on the 1/2 mile tracks and a bad driver could get lucky if he had enough horse power on a mile track.
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2012, 10:17:01 PM »

I always thought you needed more skill on the 1/2 mile tracks and a bad driver could get lucky if he had enough horse power on a mile track.
It's very hard to find good drivers!
Most these days are drunks suffering from hangovers or pot heads with a cantabile card or speed freaks or slashers and chokers how many reinsmen do u find?
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clubhouse
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2012, 10:27:01 PM »

It's very hard to find good drivers!
Most these days are drunks suffering from hangovers or pot heads with a cantabile card or speed freaks or slashers and chokers how many reinsmen do u find?

I would say a hand full would be alot. Its a lost art.
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2012, 10:45:58 PM »

I would say a hand full would be alot. Its a lost art.
Lost art that is a saddest thing of all it's very hard for even a fan to see the real art of harness racing its such a passion and relationship to have with a beautiful gaitex horse and no reinsmen to really show what collection and speed are!
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2012, 07:14:44 AM »

Blimpie has a lower percentage of winning favorites because speed is almost invariably dead there, period.

Balmoral has a lower percentage of winning favorites because they have 10 horses in a lot of their races
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