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Author Topic: The Churchill Downs Fall Pick of the Day  (Read 1314 times)
journalstuff
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« on: October 27, 2012, 09:37:37 PM »

It'll be a 2 dollar across the board wager. It'll always be the most likely winner of the day.

October 28:
Race 7:
11. New Line (3-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2012, 10:28:10 PM »

New Line didnít hit the top 3. So we lost with our Pick of the Day.
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JoeMama
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2012, 11:46:02 PM »

A major reason for starting threads and posting messages is to generate a certain amount of dialogue between more than one person. I wonder if we should focus on the Breeders Cup and analysis of the races on the two big days. The BC is the last big weekend of racing this year and we could start another handicapping contest this year. Last year was fun. Your BC thread is a good one.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2012, 12:52:44 PM »

Thank you. Nice. I hope we can make money at the bc.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2012, 08:36:11 PM »

October 31:
Race 1:
6. Otter Cove (3-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 08:55:09 PM »

Otter Cove came in 1st. It paid $6.40 to win, $3.40 to place and $2.20 to show. We won $12.00 and made a $6.00 profit.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 08:59:42 PM »

November 1:
Race 1:
2. Z Camelot (3-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2012, 09:11:01 PM »

Z Camelot didnít hit the top 3. So we lost with our Pick of the Day.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2012, 09:22:38 PM »

November 2:
Race 2:
2. Always Here Too (3-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2012, 08:46:50 PM »

Always Here Too didnít hit the top 3. So we lost with our Pick of the Day.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2012, 08:52:08 PM »

November 3:
Race 1:
3. Molly Morgan (2-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2012, 09:30:55 PM »

Molly Morgan came in 2nd. It paid $2.40 to place and $2.20 to show. We won $4.60 and lost -$1.40.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2012, 09:36:36 PM »

November 4:
Race 4:
5. Major Marvel (2-1)
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ChrissyTina
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2012, 01:58:49 PM »

Race 4...I'm going with #6 Night Party. Purely a pick with my heart, not my head. Friends with the connections and they are due for a win. (I hope.)  Smiley

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"Never let a win get to your head, or a loss to your heart."
journalstuff
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2012, 11:09:48 PM »

Major Marvel came in 2nd. It paid $3.20 to place and $2.60 to show. We won $5.80 and lost -$0.20.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2012, 11:18:22 PM »

I will have stats for my picks of the day for the season at the Churchill Downs Fall. Also, an ROI as well. It'll be overall throughout the season.

Starts   1st   2nd   3rd   Win%   
6      1   2   0   16   

Investment: $36
Money: $22.40
ROI: -$13.60
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journalstuff
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2012, 12:57:51 AM »

November 7:
Race 4:
8. Ocean Bertie (5-2)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2012, 08:50:34 PM »

Ocean Bertie didn't hit the top 3. So we lost with our Pick of the Day.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2012, 09:42:46 PM »

November 8:
Race 6:
4. Always Kitten (2-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2012, 08:27:24 PM »

Always Kitten came in 2nd. It paid $3.20 to place and $2.40 to show. We won $5.60 and lost -$0.40.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2012, 09:17:24 PM »

November 9:
Race 5:
3. Dream Pegasus (9-5)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2012, 10:17:11 PM »

Dream Pegasus came in 3rd. It paid $2.40 to show and thatís how much we won. We lost -$3.60.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2012, 10:22:22 PM »

November 10:
Race 6:
11. Party Vow (2-1)
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journalstuff
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« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2012, 09:32:47 PM »

Party Vow didnít hit the top 3. So we lost with our Pick of the Day.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2012, 09:40:10 PM »

November 11:
Race 10:
9. Savage Vow (3-1)
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Daddys Next
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« Reply #25 on: November 11, 2012, 12:08:00 PM »

My Churchill pick for the day, and my logic   .......   Wait Til Dawn in the 4th race at Churchill today.  This is my reasoning   .....   a Pletcher horse, that has past stakes experience running in an allowance race for non-winners of three.  Generally, it concerns me when horses are running off of a five month layoff.  But, Pletcher's connections are generally pretty wealthy, so they usually do what is right by the horse/filly (unless they are pressing to make an important race, such as the Kentucky Derby, Breeders Cup, etc. or other such important race that the race dictates the schedule and not the horse's condition).  So, when Pletcher is not under the gun to get a horse to an important race, then he runs the horse in races that "come up" on the horses schedule.  Thus, he can pick and choose, and in the case of today's race at Churchill, even though the quality filly is coming off of a 5 month layoff, she is probably ready to run her race today.  I will comment on my pick after the races today.  Good luck to all. 
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Daddys Next
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« Reply #26 on: November 11, 2012, 02:08:39 PM »

Well, bad call on my part.  Not even close. Bad to the handicapping board.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2012, 07:51:45 PM »

Savage Vow came in 1st. It paid $5.20 to win, $3.20 to place and $2.40 to show. We won $10.80 and made a $4.80 profit.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2012, 07:57:40 PM »

Starts   1st   2nd   3rd   Win%   
11      2   3   1   18 

Investment: $66
Money: $41.20
ROI: -$27.60
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journalstuff
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« Reply #29 on: November 13, 2012, 08:20:51 PM »

November 14:
Race 10:
5. Artillery (7-2)
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orioles
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« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2012, 09:26:31 AM »

November 14:
Race 10:
5. Artillery (7-2)
 #6 Pride Rock   Lets do a 5-6 per box.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2012, 05:49:17 PM »

Journalstuff  . .

What JoeMama, I think, was trying to tell you, is that you are starting too many "pick of the day" posts here.  And answering your own posts too many times. 

There is no reason to be picking so many tracks every single day of racing.  It would be better to have one once in a while and a reason for it and maybe ask if anyone else has better one or agrees with yours. 
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