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Author Topic: Could this year's be the chalkiest breeders cup?  (Read 2208 times)
journalstuff
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« on: October 10, 2012, 10:19:40 AM »

I will say this could even be the chalkiest BC we've seen since like 97-98 BC.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2012, 10:39:03 AM »

If you look at it from a California-only perspective, it might look that way...but there are too many unanswered questions, mainly, who are the Euros sending?

Too soon, kid. Give it another two weeks: so-called "cutting edge" predictions, and a quarter, won't buy you a cup of coffee. (Or in your case, a Red Bull, perhaps.)





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journalstuff
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2012, 02:13:02 PM »

Euros and New York horses look better on quality wise.
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vegas jay
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2012, 05:58:47 AM »

I've always wondered why people feel compelled to take short prices in the biggest stakes races -- just because they ARE the biggest races, like Triple Crown events or the Breeders' Cup series.

My reasoning has always been this: Since, by nature, I tend to shun the "chalk" to concentrate on finding bettable overlays, why would I take...say...8/5 in a race where my rivals are all Grade 1 or Grade 2 horses...where most (if not all) have shown the past ability to beat today's caliber of opponents on their best day?

If I'm willing to accept odds of 8/5 , I would rather ask my horse to beat a bunch of lesser caliber animals than the nation's/world's top graded stakes performers.

Anyway you slice it, 8/5 is 8/5. If I'm going to reduce the opportunity for the size of profits I'd normally require by accepting odds of 8/5, then I want to correspondingly pick the spots where the caliber of competition for my 8/5 shot is lesser, not greater.
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TheRedMile
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2012, 08:34:43 AM »

most breeders cup races (especially since they added races) or other g1's are not filled with good g1 horses imo
i think you can toss up to 1/2 the field plenty of times..over the yrs there have been plenty who looked and deserved to be 8-5 or less  uncle mo as a 2yo ouija board at lone star high chapparal at ap dayjur at bel etc
whether they are bc races or a 5 claimer the question is do they deserve to be 8-5 ?
imo the higher the quality of horse the truer they run to form
i was once at old spk on a sat afternoon and a horse was 1 win out of 49 starts lifetime but was the green sheet best bet of the day.. a cheap claimer he had been beaten a nose in his last start   1 for 49 and people really bet him down to heavy chalk !  laughing guy
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