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Author Topic: Yonkers Morning Line Horrible  (Read 1272 times)
trottinman60
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« on: October 06, 2012, 03:49:48 PM »

I just started handicapping tonight's first at YR.  The 4 is listed as the ML fave.  The horse will undoubtedly be double digits and probably one of the longest shots on the board.  In the last couple of weeks there have been several horses with an 8-5 ML who went off 5-1 or higher. 

I know the quality of the ML everywhere (at least in harness) ain't what it used to be, but you'd think YR, with its high caliber racing and decent pools, would care enough to have someone competent do it.  I'm sure they can afford it.  The guy doing it now is either totally incompetent, doesn't care, or is betting and thinks bad ML's will help him get value.

Time for a change!!
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Mr_Ed
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 06:32:52 PM »

If it's any consolation............no one can get the unemployment numbers right, either.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 10:13:10 PM »

why are looking at the morning line?

the linesmakers are instructed to make the race  appear more competitive than the really are and are to be ignored

make your own line or ignore the one posted

i am not sure what you are looking for in the ml--but you wont find accuracy
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 02:00:11 AM »

why are looking at the morning line?

the linesmakers are instructed to make the race  appear more competitive than the really are and are to be ignored

make your own line or ignore the one posted

i am not sure what you are looking for in the ml--but you wont find accuracy


how do you do that punch?

if you dont know the track?
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clubhouse
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 07:56:16 AM »

I find the morning line is a waste and have never looked at it. After I work out a race I know exactly what each
horse should and usually do go off at.
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jks best
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2012, 09:08:57 AM »

I just started handicapping tonight's first at YR.  The 4 is listed as the ML fave.  The horse will undoubtedly be double digits and probably one of the longest shots on the board.  In the last couple of weeks there have been several horses with an 8-5 ML who went off 5-1 or higher. 

I know the quality of the ML everywhere (at least in harness) ain't what it used to be, but you'd think YR, with its high caliber racing and decent pools, would care enough to have someone competent do it.  I'm sure they can afford it.  The guy doing it now is either totally incompetent, doesn't care, or is betting and thinks bad ML's will help him get value.Time for a change!!

All of the above.
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JLB
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2012, 10:16:08 AM »

Have to disagree with "coldpunch". While I think the Yonkers morning line is often way off base, it seems to be one of the few tracks where they will use odds of 6-5 or 8-5 to denote the predicted favorite, rather than the standard 5-2 or 3-1 used by many other tracks (Monticello may be the worst offender).

Having said that, I, too, find the Yonkers line to be inaccurate, and I agree that morning lines should be ignored everywhere unless you are visiting a track you have never bet before.

Still, I have often wondered why the morning line is supposed to reflect what odds the public will set. To me, it should be a skilled handicapper's assessment of who he thinks the best horses are. Too often, the public's favorite horse (by this I mean a horse who has acquired a following week in and week out (veteran New Yorkers will remember Nickawampus Leroy many years ago, or Chief Crazy Legs)), will be overbet out of loyalty only, rather than current form.
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2012, 10:39:47 AM »

Coldpunch likes to throw insults around to people but im going to disagree as well and bear the wrath of his insulting posts

not even remotely paying attention to the ML odds at yonkers is very very foolish. its the key to betting every multi race wager there and the reason i have bet the place with a high level of ROI for decades
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clubhouse
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2012, 08:17:15 PM »

Coldpunch likes to throw insults around to people but im going to disagree as well and bear the wrath of his insulting posts

not even remotely paying attention to the ML odds at yonkers is very very foolish. its the key to betting every multi race wager there and the reason i have bet the place with a high level of ROI for decades

Can you explain this ?
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TKs Skipper
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2012, 08:42:33 PM »

Can you explain this ?

sure, the betting public will almost surely use those horses who are assigned incorrect, low MLs in their p3/4. especially in legs 2,3 or 4. my assumption is people feel the need to use these horses solely because of the low ML. p3/4s at yonkers offer your best bang for your buck. i play multi-race wagers at most tracks, Yonkers offers you the best value and its cause of the bad MLs. been this way for many many years.
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clubhouse
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2012, 10:05:26 PM »

Thanks. Excellant logic if you don't like the morning line favorites.
And the 1st  leg these same players will just follow the board.
I will check out the pick4 there tomorrow night.
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trottinman60
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2012, 04:19:16 AM »

sure, the betting public will almost surely use those horses who are assigned incorrect, low MLs in their p3/4. especially in legs 2,3 or 4. my assumption is people feel the need to use these horses solely because of the low ML. p3/4s at yonkers offer your best bang for your buck. i play multi-race wagers at most tracks, Yonkers offers you the best value and its cause of the bad MLs. been this way for many many years.
Agree that it can actually be helpful in the way you describe with the multi-race wagers.  However, there are times when I want to bet certain races, but have to bet them well in advance.  If you're looking for value, you need to try to estimate what the public will bet.  It would be nice if there was a respectable ML you could look to for SOME help in doing that.

One other thing:  I think a poor ML can do further damage to the public's perception of racing's integrity.  When the ML fave goes off at 12-1 and races like a 12-1 shot (or when an 8-1 ML goes off 4-5 and jogs), a bettor is much more likely to think something shady is going on.
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clubhouse
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2012, 09:27:11 PM »

You just discribed 75% of the races at Chester. 12-1 ml wins and pays $4.60
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momo
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2012, 01:50:33 AM »

the momo loves the ML crew at yonker
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2012, 06:37:50 AM »

Agree that it can actually be helpful in the way you describe with the multi-race wagers.  However, there are times when I want to bet certain races, but have to bet them well in advance.  If you're looking for value, you need to try to estimate what the public will bet.  It would be nice if there was a respectable ML you could look to for SOME help in doing that.

One other thing:  I think a poor ML can do further damage to the public's perception of racing's integrity.  When the ML fave goes off at 12-1 and races like a 12-1 shot (or when an 8-1 ML goes off 4-5 and jogs), a bettor is much more likely to think something shady is going on.

I agree awith a lot of what you say.....especially the perception thing.....People (what few are left) always squeal when 12-1 ML's pay $4.00.....OOOOh somebody knew something......That race was fixed.....When in reality the horse should have been 2-1 on the ML
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Casper10
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2012, 10:41:41 AM »

TK'S Skipper is right on this one, The Pick 3 & 4 are the greatest value at Yonkers & Frank Drucker who I believe still does the ML gives the sharper handicapper an edge because he is SO FAR OFF with his ML odds.
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trottinman60
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2012, 02:59:29 AM »

TK'S Skipper is right on this one, The Pick 3 & 4 are the greatest value at Yonkers & Frank Drucker who I believe still does the ML gives the sharper handicapper an edge because he is SO FAR OFF with his ML odds.

Ok, I know I'm "beating a dead horse" but this guy is ridiculous - - tonite's 3rd at YR, Katherine B has the rail, was a very good second in her last start (same class) with Steve Smith.  Tonite get first time Banca (.459 UTR) training, first time lasix AND gets Sears.  ML?  6-1.  I could understand it a little if horses were shipping in, or maybe even coming from different classes, but NO - - every horse but 1 in the field had raced in the same class, and the one that hadn't did the start before.  C'mon YR - - spend a few bucks and get somebody who is competent and takes more than 2 minutes to do it.

Oh yeah, Katherine B. went off 4-5 and won by 7.  And no doubt at least a couple of bettors walked out thinking it must have been all inside $...
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