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Author Topic: free Arc pp's  (Read 891 times)
honest & balanced terry
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« on: October 06, 2012, 09:13:04 AM »

http://www.amwestentertainment.com/arc-de-triomphe/recaps/free-pps/
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
coldpunch
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 11:38:05 PM »

St Nicholas Abby has raced GUGE vs Frankel more than once''he gets the firm call over the overhyped Camelot
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 01:40:11 AM »

Thank u  c punch I'm going to be studying this  most of the morning ! beer
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" when I get got , I get my Glock"
vegas jay
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 03:27:48 AM »

Thanks, Terry.....
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Bob B
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 08:05:23 AM »

A few things to consider.  The ground is very soft and running very slow.  Several of these have good form on soft ground but this could even test those who have performed well in the past.  An outside post does a horse no favours in the Arc and while not a deal breaker, it can be a negative tick when trying to separate a few you like.  This affects Sea Moon, Orfevre and Masterstroke. 

Another note is the Arc trials run three weeks ago, the fillies in the Vermeille ran 5 seconds faster than the colts in the Niel and Foy.  Pace can account for the difference but it still has to be a factor.  Vermeille winner Shareta finished second in the Arc last year and has won on soft ground.  She has every chance this morning and starts from post 11. 

Great Heavens is certainly a horse at a price to look at.  She'll be tested for class but gets up to an 11 pound break from older males carrying 120 as a 3 year old filly.  Gosden supplemented her this week at great cost and I feel he was waiting to see if they got the soft ground she relishes and with the high profile defections of Danedream and Snow Fairy.  She's won all 4 of her runs this year but I stress these are a whole other class.  Connections, post and ability on the ground gives me reason to include her on exotics and bet her to win given a good price.

I would take on Orfevre as he has the post and the heavy ground against him.  He did win on good to soft in the Foy but I would want more of a price than I'm likely going to get on him.  Good luck to all who play the Arc.
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Bob B
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2012, 08:13:59 AM »

After seeing the current odds, Sea Moon looks an overlay at 18-1.  Shareta at 11-1 is a much better bet than my longshot Great Heavens at 9-1, but I would still have to include her at that price.  Meandre is another whose price appears fair to me for a stab at 14-1 having beat Shareta at St Cloud earlier this year and running second to favourite Orfevre in his prep in the Foy three weeks ago.

Shareta is my top pick.
Small win savers on Sea Moon, Meandre and Great Heavens and these four in exotics.

Good luck.
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Bob B
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2012, 08:32:57 AM »

Well I wasn't close but a gal got the win again.  Solemia comes back to nail the Japanese colt at the wire.  She finished 3rd to Shareta in the Vermeille and did beat her earlier this year in a Group 2.  Congrats if you came up with her as you will be rewarded well.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2012, 02:21:34 PM »

Well I wasn't close but a gal got the win again.  Solemia comes back to nail the Japanese colt at the wire. She finished 3rd to Shareta in the Vermeille and did beat her earlier this year in a Group 2.  Congrats if you came up with her as you will be rewarded well.

Wow talk about your random and unexpected results which we all know never happen anywhere but on poly, check this out:

"Solemia had failed to land a Group 1 in 12 starts over three calendar years of racing and had run in only one of them, finishing third Sept. 16 in the Prix Vermeille."

http://www.drf.com/news/longchamp-unheralded-filly-solemia-scores-shocking-upset-arc
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2012, 11:15:15 PM »

After seeing the current odds, Sea Moon looks an overlay at 18-1.  Shareta at 11-1 is a much better bet than my longshot Great Heavens at 9-1, but I would still have to include her at that price.  Meandre is another whose price appears fair to me for a stab at 14-1 having beat Shareta at St Cloud earlier this year and running second to favourite Orfevre in his prep in the Foy three weeks ago.

Shareta is my top pick.
Small win savers on Sea Moon, Meandre and Great Heavens and these four in exotics.

Good luck.

I liked the same three... Shareta, Meandre and Sea Moon. Good to see a filly take it. Just saw the replay, the big horse from Japan looked SO in the barn! At first I thought the rider on the filly waited too long, but when he let her out, she took the lead, and then gets passed like she was tied to a post. Not sure what happened to the Japanese horse, seemed to run on the same lead the entire stretch.
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Bob B
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2012, 09:57:14 AM »

I liked the same three... Shareta, Meandre and Sea Moon. Good to see a filly take it. Just saw the replay, the big horse from Japan looked SO in the barn! At first I thought the rider on the filly waited too long, but when he let her out, she took the lead, and then gets passed like she was tied to a post. Not sure what happened to the Japanese horse, seemed to run on the same lead the entire stretch.

I thought the Japanese horse ran great considering his post position, travel and facing the heavy ground that I doubt he's been on before.  The final time was 2:37.68, which is a reflection of the ground and not the field. (slowest in 13 years)
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