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Author Topic: another case of exchanges, "lay" wagering, and race fixing  (Read 986 times)
honest & balanced terry
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« on: October 04, 2012, 11:07:53 AM »

They just keep on popping up like clockwork. These guys are changed, but the bettors they cheated will never see their money again.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/andrew-heffernan-bha-paul-scotney-jockey-and-three-footballers-charged-with-race-fixing/1126854/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/three-footballers-charged-over-suspicious-horse-racing-betting-8197645.html
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2012, 12:11:22 PM »

Anyone who doesn't understand that exchange wagering will lead to way more widespread cheating than pari-mutuel wagering is pretty intellectually challenged. You can cheat all by yourself, nobody else has to be involved, you don't have to worry about picking the winners all you have to do is offer a larger price on your horse than he/she should be and wait for the suckers to jump on your offer.....game over.....you can have multiple people from various parts of the Country do it for you.....and no way any "software" they have will be able to connect anyone to anything
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SHOWTIME!!!
pamwaggy
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2012, 07:05:19 PM »

Freaky! 
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Trainer Rusty
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2012, 07:24:04 PM »

This shady stuff will be rampant among lower level stables and jockeys.  and the cali fair circuit.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2012, 07:33:57 PM »

Just great.  Why will this be allowed to happen?  Every day I get more discouraged.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2012, 10:08:33 PM »

maybe i will dig up all the investigations that Betfair has helped with that has led to putting cheaters in jail

exchange wagering adds to integrity--every account and every wager is of course documented--now if you have runners and a network of folks laying wagers on known losers--eventually they will get caught

i am one of the mentally challeneged who believe that exchange wagering is the future and folks need to take the time and learn ALL aspects of what the hell is going on--instead of reading pasted links of negativity

what is this--Fox news w Great?
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2012, 11:25:09 PM »

C Punch My Man can you please help me to understand exchange wagering in the most simple form.
Everything I read on it I really dont get.

Why is it good and what are the advantages?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2012, 12:02:21 AM »

maybe i will dig up all the investigations that Betfair has helped with that has led to putting cheaters in jail

Better yet, dig up all the instances of people cheating by laying horses that have NOT been caught.

Well, of course you can't do that, but you know it is out there, just like those drugs that don't get caught by drugs testing. And that's the issue - perception. Where there's smoke there's fire, and all of that.

Quote
exchange wagering adds to integrity--every account and every wager is of course documented--now if you have runners and a network of folks laying wagers on known losers--eventually they will get caught

MAYBE they eventually get caught. All depends on how greedy they get. But the issue really isn't a big network of people, it's thousands of individuals with inside knowledge ... not inside knowledge that their horse is ready today and MIGHT run a big one and win assuming no other horse spoils that plan, but inside knowledge that this horse just isn't right and has no chance of winning (or will otherwise not win) and can make a nice hit simply betting on a sure loser, rather than a maybe winner.

Quote
i am one of the mentally challeneged who believe that exchange wagering is the future and folks need to take the time and learn ALL aspects of what the hell is going on--instead of reading pasted links of negativity

You do go ahead and post the links where it says the exchange people are going to no only catch all the "lay" cheaters, but actually prevent that ahead of time (like they obviously did NOT in this case), and then we'll all feel comfy about it. Meanwhile, these stories about the few they did catch just keep showing up like clockwork, one or two a year, and harnessfanDE's observations above are right on the mark.
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2012, 12:47:55 AM »

Gambling and corruption are eternal bedfellows.  I see the incredible wagering possibilities of exchange wagering, but the potential for cheating is far greater than in parimutual wagering.

If I can only make money if a horse wins, in order to fix a race I'm going to have to include other trainers/jockeys into my scheme.  As a rule, the greater the number of conspirators the more it costs and the odds of detection increase.

If I can make money just because a horse loses, I only need 1 guy.  I don't see how you can police that unless someone is dumb enough to go to the same well repeatedly.

Am I missing something?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2012, 01:08:24 AM »

Gambling and corruption are eternal bedfellows.  I see the incredible wagering possibilities of exchange wagering, but the potential for cheating is far greater than in parimutual wagering.

If I can only make money if a horse wins, in order to fix a race I'm going to have to include other trainers/jockeys into my scheme.  As a rule, the greater the number of conspirators the more it costs and the odds of detection increase.

If I can make money just because a horse loses, I only need 1 guy.  I don't see how you can police that unless someone is dumb enough to go to the same well repeatedly.

Am I missing something?

No, you're not missing anything.
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fuzzypants
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2012, 01:43:10 AM »

Gambling and corruption are eternal bedfellows.  I see the incredible wagering possibilities of exchange wagering, but the potential for cheating is far greater than in parimutual wagering.

If I can only make money if a horse wins, in order to fix a race I'm going to have to include other trainers/jockeys into my scheme.  As a rule, the greater the number of conspirators the more it costs and the odds of detection increase.

If I can make money just because a horse loses, I only need 1 guy.  I don't see how you can police that unless someone is dumb enough to go to the same well repeatedly.

Am I missing something?

But isn't that the problem with corruption?
That comes with greed and then offenders thinking they got by with it once and so they go back and do it again it begins easy pickings and a habit ?
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2012, 06:08:15 AM »

Lets do some math guys, shall we?

I want to compare the regular horse player vs the regular exchange player.

The regular horseplayer, a serious horseplayer is betting racing on an almost daily basis. Lets say that the regular Joe bets 200 days of racing and makes on average 5 wagers per day. Lets say the exchange player also makes 1,000 wagers per year.

Lets say that both horseplayers lose 3 out of 1,000 bets they make because of fixed races, shenanigans, the winners being drugged, etc.

The difference is that the regular horseplayer loses 3 races thru 'fixes' and nobody gets held accountable, nobody gets caught and everyone gets away with it. So, the next series of 1,000 bets regular joe horseplayer makes will see the same "three" fixed races in his next series of 1,000.

The exchange player loses 3 bets (3 bets where he won't get his money back as Terry so eloquently puts in this OP) but here's the difference. The 3 bets that the Ex Player loses results in 3 people getting caught and either jailed or kicked out of the sport entirely. SO, in the next 1,000 bets that the exchange player makes, he might still lose 3 out of 100 but he probably won't lose the same 3 wagers to the same 3 criminals.

I'd much rather have scenario 2. Look, all of us are going to lose wagers where we can't recover the money due to cheating or fixing, but if that's going to be the case, i'd much rather go with scenario 2 and see the perps gets caught.

The main point out of all of this is that its 'easier' to 'out' the criminals on an exchange wager than into the regular pools. If i'm going to lose a wager thru a fix, i'd prefer to at least see someone get caught and if someone is doing shenanigans into a regular Pari Mutuel pool, its unlikely they'll get caught.


*I used 3 'fixed' races out of 1,000 as a raw example to make my point, dont take this number as gospel.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2012, 08:36:17 AM »

C Punch My Man can you please help me to understand exchange wagering in the most simple form.
Everything I read on it I really dont get.

Why is it good and what are the advantages?

OK- Fuzz--what is does is create a competitve market for your wagering dollars--so if a bookie wants you to bet Zenyatta-he /she will offer you a higher price to attract you--like a moth to a light--this creates competition and you are betting against someone else with an opposing opinion--and the same the other way--if you were like me and didnt real care for Zenyatta--i would have offered a great price in her loss to Blame in order to attract the Zenyatta players action

more competiton in the market plce makes for the best prices for the consumer(in this case, bettor)
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Bob B
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2012, 09:26:59 AM »

This shady stuff will be rampant among lower level stables and jockeys.  and the cali fair circuit.

Except for the likelihood of there being very little liquidity in the exchange markets on the lower level stables and cali fair circuits.  Their big scores won't be very big and they'll stick out like a sore thumb in shallow markets.

If the pools in the parimutuel market are small at these tracks, they're going to be small on the exchanges.  For the exchanges to work, there will have to be liquidity in their markets and that will only happen at the bigger meetings.

As for the perception problem, that already exists in horse racing at epic levels.  At least with exchange wagering there will be an electronic trace of every wager and depending on the ability of the exchange's compliance staff, they have the opportunity to look for patterns that seem below board.  Unless you're wagering through an ADW that same tracking doesn't exist in the current environment. 

While I'm an advocate of exchange wagering (which I now know makes me stupid), I understand that it won't likely be accepted in the US and the opponents will get their way.  Maybe that will lead to the needed contraction of race dates, breeding and race tracks to a level that can support the wagering dollars that are still out there.  The slot band aid can stick for only so long before falling off and exposing the wound that is the current state of horse racing.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2012, 11:02:30 AM »

Except for the likelihood of there being very little liquidity in the exchange markets on the lower level stables and cali fair circuits.  Their big scores won't be very big and they'll stick out like a sore thumb in shallow markets.

If the pools in the parimutuel market are small at these tracks, they're going to be small on the exchanges.  For the exchanges to work, there will have to be liquidity in their markets and that will only happen at the bigger meetings.

As for the perception problem, that already exists in horse racing at epic levels.  At least with exchange wagering there will be an electronic trace of every wager and depending on the ability of the exchange's compliance staff, they have the opportunity to look for patterns that seem below board.  Unless you're wagering through an ADW that same tracking doesn't exist in the current environment. 

While I'm an advocate of exchange wagering (which I now know makes me stupid), I understand that it won't likely be accepted in the US and the opponents will get their way.  Maybe that will lead to the needed contraction of race dates, breeding and race tracks to a level that can support the wagering dollars that are still out there.  The slot band aid can stick for only so long before falling off and exposing the wound that is the current state of horse racing.

if you would like to educate yourself--click on Betfair and looked at the money matched on Fresno and tell me there wont be enough action--it would be enlightening to you for sure
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Bob B
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2012, 11:45:39 AM »

Since Betfair's site is blocked for me, how about just sharing the information.  If there's a lot of money being matched on Fresno without legal US participation, tracks should be getting behind exchange wagering quickly.  Imagine the numbers at a real meeting. 

I am on your side of the fence to legalize exchange wagering you know.  I hope the numbers you share are mind-boggling.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2012, 03:49:39 PM »

Since Betfair's site is blocked for me, how about just sharing the information.  If there's a lot of money being matched on Fresno without legal US participation, tracks should be getting behind exchange wagering quickly.  Imagine the numbers at a real meeting.

They WILL get behind it, as soon as Betfair et al offer a sweet enough deal. Concerns about integrity will magically melt away. 
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coldpunch
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2012, 07:07:12 PM »

Since Betfair's site is blocked for me, how about just sharing the information.  If there's a lot of money being matched on Fresno without legal US participation, tracks should be getting behind exchange wagering quickly.  Imagine the numbers at a real meeting. 

I am on your side of the fence to legalize exchange wagering you know.  I hope the numbers you share are mind-boggling.

there is no such thing as being blocked and you can check the action yourself

bet.com--i just checked--there are not taking FRESNO but have had a market for no al fairs
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Epsom Derby
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2012, 01:25:08 AM »

Pari-Mutuel pools are NEVER manipulated.

Then why do terms such as these exist?:

"The Wise Guy Horse" - The horse that is 5/2 on the tote, but on paper, they look like they should be 10/1, yet early pool manipulation dupes the punters into backing the runner.

"Took a ton of late money" - That's a calculated wager based upon early pool manipulation.

Pari Mutuel Wagering is KING!. 

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sulkyfromouterspace
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2012, 06:13:19 AM »

However, racegoers and those betting on British racing should be reassured that instances of this nature are extremely rare and that the overwhelming majority of races are free of suspicion."



 binoculars    Can Harness racing make such a bold statement?  hmmmmmm   I have never seen it..... When will the harness game feel comfortable to make a statement like that??   Until we can.....    We will continue to struggle.....   








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Bet with Integrity .....Bet with Gural !
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