Chicago Barn to Wire BRIS
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


September 23, 2014, 01:25:23 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Theory on claiming  (Read 744 times)
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 746




Ignore
« on: September 21, 2012, 10:54:38 AM »

I know the conventional wisdom has always been to claim the highest level you can because the monthly upkeep is the same...so you might as well get a horse that can get you the higher purses.

I am developing a different take on this. Not because of my horse but because of what I am seeing with other horses. I could be way off base with this, but here goes:

By claiming low to mid level claimers it is easier to detect a fishy drop in class. The old "if it's too good to be true it probably is" definitely applies. However, a horse dropping from allowance company to 25k or 40k claimers make it tougher to sniff out potential problems. Add to that the NW1/x allowance condition that many low level claimers can jump up and win, and to me it seems you can make a safer claim at the lower levels.

Now given that I'm new at this I am sure that there are significant holes in this philosophy. So let's discuss...
Report to moderator   Logged
Chris Szulc
Guest

« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2012, 01:25:52 PM »

It all depends really on WHO you're claiming from, owner, trainer, etc... In my opinion, that is the biggest thing to consider when you see drops or "too good to be true," because sometimes a trainer/owner may have too many horses and simply is just running them to win and lose, or they do have problems.

That's why the claiming game is so great, with all its risk, its a poker game of its own.

That's my first thoughts that I only have a few minutes to share about, but of course there are a lot more. Would love to talk with you more about claiming in the future....
Report to moderator   Logged
DaPaver
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 871




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2012, 02:55:36 PM »

Take a look at this one J Pa is in Sunday for 5k fresh off a 18k Rivelli claim, this would be a good horse to start the conversation!
Report to moderator   Logged
Chris Szulc
Guest

« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2012, 04:02:26 PM »

Take a look at this one J Pa is in Sunday for 5k fresh off a 18k Rivelli claim, this would be a good horse to start the conversation!

Probably damaged goods. The owner is not Rivelli himself or Ravin, who want to win and drop as such to win a race just to "win a race". Would not touch the horse myself but be interesting if Rainwater goes back for him..
Report to moderator   Logged
faster horses
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 474




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2012, 09:43:37 PM »

Claiming is a huge crapshoot at any level.  The only "system" that works is to have a sharper trainer than the guy you took the horse from--and even that doesn't always work.
Report to moderator   Logged
ThePaceMaker
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1261




Ignore
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2012, 10:12:53 PM »

If u wanna see an example of the "Is this a firesale?" question look no further than the 10th today at Laurel, yes off layoff but horse who posted 4-5 straight 105+ Beyers being dropped in a 15 claimer
Report to moderator   Logged
DaPaver
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 871




Ignore
« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2012, 07:47:42 AM »

J Pa scratched, look at Dr Ballenger Friday, 16k nw2 favorite last two starts in for 7,500 with Graham!
Report to moderator   Logged
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 746




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2012, 10:19:10 AM »

J Pa scratched, look at Dr Ballenger Friday, 16k nw2 favorite last two starts in for 7,500 with Graham!

I saw that he was a "vet" scratch.
Report to moderator   Logged
DaPaver
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 871




Ignore
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2012, 10:27:46 AM »

Brivolta I hope your filly came back good and is doing ok?
Report to moderator   Logged
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 746




Ignore
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2012, 10:32:16 AM »

Brivolta I hope your filly came back good and is doing ok?

She came back great. However, I literally got a call about 5 minutes ago that she got back from galloping this morning and tied up pretty bad. The vet came and gave her a shot and I guess she's fine now. Trainer even thinks she'll be ready to go back to the track tomorrow, so I guess it's nothing to worry about. He thinks it happened because she's done nothing but walk since her race last Tuesday. Ideally he would have sent her to the track a day earlier, but the track is cloised on Sundays.
Report to moderator   Logged
coldpunch
Guest

« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2012, 11:58:25 AM »

It all depends really on WHO you're claiming from, owner, trainer, etc... In my opinion, that is the biggest thing to consider when you see drops or "too good to be true," because sometimes a trainer/owner may have too many horses and simply is just running them to win and lose, or they do have problems.

That's why the claiming game is so great, with all its risk, its a poker game of its own.

That's my first thoughts that I only have a few minutes to share about, but of course there are a lot more. Would love to talk with you more about claiming in the future....

The poker analogy is excellent--retrospectively looking back at the inner dirt meet @ Aqueduct-the purses were skewed due to the influx of blood slot money--so you had a guy like Dave Jacobsen claim a horse for @$25k--wins by a pole and pays $3.20--then in two weeks is running for a $12.5k tag--and there is nothing physically wrong w the horse--but the economics didnt discourage that business model--in fact--it encouraged it
Report to moderator   Logged
DaPaver
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 871




Ignore
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2012, 01:07:55 PM »

With the purses like Parx had Saturday that could happen but not in the Land of Lincoln, we have to Governors to maintain in Jail!
Report to moderator   Logged
pamwaggy
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 8173




Ignore
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2012, 07:26:26 PM »

She came back great. However, I literally got a call about 5 minutes ago that she got back from galloping this morning and tied up pretty bad. The vet came and gave her a shot and I guess she's fine now. Trainer even thinks she'll be ready to go back to the track tomorrow, so I guess it's nothing to worry about. He thinks it happened because she's done nothing but walk since her race last Tuesday. Ideally he would have sent her to the track a day earlier, but the track is cloised on Sundays.

So glad she is OK.  That is the part of owning a horse that frightens me. 
Report to moderator   Logged
faster horses
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 474




Ignore
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2012, 07:45:49 PM »

Not to rain on the parade, but tying up is often chronic, and it can get to a point where the horse just can't race.  I hope that's not the case here.
Report to moderator   Logged
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 746




Ignore
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2012, 08:50:03 PM »

Not to rain on the parade, but tying up is often chronic, and it can get to a point where the horse just can't race.  I hope that's not the case here.

I hope so too. It's the first time she has done it since we have had her. Her trainer thinks its because she hadn't been to the track since her race last Tuesday. He thinks she'll be fine. Should I be worried? All comments and opinions welcome...
Report to moderator   Logged
4thehorses
Newbie
*
Posts: 41




Ignore
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2012, 09:10:01 PM »

If you think she tied up badly, and are worried about other underlying issues, the vet can spin her blood and check her muscle enzyme levels... A blood panel can also reassure, address,or rule out causes/effects for a relatively low cost.
Report to moderator   Logged
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 746




Ignore
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2012, 09:24:50 PM »

If you think she tied up badly, and are worried about other underlying issues, the vet can spin her blood and check her muscle enzyme levels... A blood panel can also reassure, address,or rule out causes/effects for a relatively low cost.

The track vet was at the next barn over when it happened and came over. His exact words (my dad happened to be there when it happened) were "she's not bad at all but I'll give her a shot to help her out a little." So he didn't seem too alarmed by it. I'm hoping that's a good sign. I would think (I should never assume) that if he thought it was a bad one he would have told us.
Report to moderator   Logged
brivolta
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 746




Ignore
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2012, 01:14:30 PM »

If you think she tied up badly, and are worried about other underlying issues, the vet can spin her blood and check her muscle enzyme levels... A blood panel can also reassure, address,or rule out causes/effects for a relatively low cost.
She went to the track this morning and came back perfectly normal. Hopefully it was just a freak thing from being off for a few days.
Report to moderator   Logged
g3tPWNed_24
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1291




Ignore
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2012, 04:01:45 PM »

glad your horse is doing ok brivolta! there are certain things your trainer can do to try and help prevent her from tying up in the future and you gotta capable trainer so i wouldnt worry too much over it
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.176 seconds with 17 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Arlington Million
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy