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Author Topic: Why Questing lost  (Read 1158 times)
coldpunch
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« on: September 22, 2012, 08:28:28 PM »

Questing is like Falcon Seester--would prefer hotter  fractions than rating along--when you have spped merchants--you dont tak away that weapon--by going 25-50-114 +--Irad allowed My Miss Aurelia back in the race--if she floors it--she wins--you dont take away what the horse does best--and that is run them off their feet

very disappointed w Irad--but hats off to the 2yo filly champ--she is back

i feel both of these two can handle Royal Delta and Its TRicky(and others) @ Santa Anita
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journalstuff
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2012, 08:42:36 PM »

Look out for include me out in that one and love and pride if it's no fluke
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2012, 09:20:49 PM »

Questing is like Falcon Seester--would prefer hotter  fractions than rating along--when you have spped merchants--you dont tak away that weapon--by going 25-50-114 +--Irad allowed My Miss Aurelia back in the race--if she floors it--she wins--you dont take away what the horse does best--and that is run them off their feet

very disappointed w Irad

What is this BS with bashing the jock?

Who wrote:

Questing is a freak and too fast too allow anybody near her--and Irad is instructed NOT to show her the whip

Sounds to me like the kid was set up to fail; in any case, blaming the jock for you losing your "oh, it's gonna happen, make a one-way Questing / My Miss Aurelia, no reversing necessary" exacta is pretty weak stuff.

You were warned that this was a bad bet, a not-so-certain projected outcome with so little reward even if you were right (a $5 exacta payout for a $2 bet? An exacta that pays 3/2?  doh ).

IMO, your best move would be to admit that you were stubborn and made a mistake, without criticizing the rider, who did as instructed. Do that, and maybe I won't bore you to tears about what an absolute sucker bet Alpha was today.  Wink
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coldpunch
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2012, 10:02:51 PM »

What is this BS with bashing the jock?

Who wrote:

Sounds to me like the kid was set up to fail; in any case, blaming the jock for you losing your "oh, it's gonna happen, make a one-way Questing / My Miss Aurelia, no reversing necessary" exacta is pretty weak stuff.

You were warned that this was a bad bet, a not-so-certain projected outcome with so little reward even if you were right (a $5 exacta payout for a $2 bet? An exacta that pays 3/2?  doh ).

IMO, your best move would be to admit that you were stubborn and made a mistake, without criticizing the rider, who did as instructed. Do that, and maybe I won't bore you to tears about what an absolute sucker bet Alpha was today.  Wink

Hold on their Mr Horse Voice--yes i was wrong and hats off to the winner fair and square--i didnt think it would even be close --so the fact that it was shows i was completely wrong even if Questing wins by a nose

my point was the fractions is why Questing lost--not necessarily BLAMING or BASHING HIM--but i mentioned i was disappointed in his tactics--fully aware of what he had after the Alabama--it may not have mattered since obviously MMA real sharp--but just beause i say the fractions cost her the race doesnt necessarily mean --since i said i was disapppointed--did not necessarily infer i am bashing Irad(even though if Gabriel Saez or PVal was riding she wouldnt be going 50 to the half....)

if i was upset or thought he cost her the race--i wouldnt be using such soft terminology--he is young, talented--and hopefully Mr Kiaran will explain to him why he lost

i knew i was in trouble at the half despite what many may have felt was "walking the pooch"--which is not Questings way

 $5 in my book was fair value at least--i dont bet many races--but when i do--i like to mplay large exactas w/o reversing them--thats just me--i dont criticize others style--and all our money is the same color--so to each his own
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SON OF JOR-EL
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2012, 10:11:17 PM »

Questing is like Falcon Seester--would prefer hotter  fractions than rating along--when you have spped merchants--you dont tak away that weapon--by going 25-50-114 +--Irad allowed My Miss Aurelia back in the race--if she floors it--she wins--you dont take away what the horse does best--and that is run them off their feet

very disappointed w Irad--but hats off to the 2yo filly champ--she is back

i feel both of these two can handle Royal Delta and Its TRicky(and others) @ Santa Anita
I remember Riyadh being like that 2 punch!!!!
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coldpunch
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2012, 10:32:28 PM »

I remember Riyadh being like that 2 punch!!!!

agreed--nice example

Bettor Sweet was like that

the overall point i was trying to make was that soft fractions for a speedster many times is not in their wheel house--of course not saying the want a duel--but many are just better stepping on the gas--bottoming the field out--demoralizing the competition--but when you turn it into a sprint--then the whole advantage that possessing that tremendous speed is to use it--Hard Spun comes to mind--his Belmont was disappointing--especially tactics wise

i was not bashing Irad--and i also think his younger brother Jose has even more talent than he does
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2012, 10:53:28 PM »

did not necessarily infer i am bashing Irad(even though if Gabriel Saez or PVal was riding she wouldnt be going 50 to the half....)

if i was upset or thought he cost her the race

Oh, you are NOT bashing the jock?  Really?

Do these statements sound like you are being magnanimous and giving any credit to the winner:

...when you have spped merchants--you dont tak away that weapon

...Irad allowed My Miss Aurelia back in the race

...very disappointed w Irad

Sorry, I don't understand how that can be anything OTHER than bashing the jock. You are placing the blame for Questing's loss directly on him.

$5 in my book was fair value at least--i dont bet many races--but when i do--i like to mplay large exactas w/o reversing them--thats just me--i dont criticize others style

"Fair value" = getting even money for a coin flip = no edge.

No edge = no bet. Even decidedly average horseplayers know this.

Oh, but I am not "criticizing" you. Or bashing you...   Wink
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coldpunch
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2012, 11:07:45 PM »

i am sorry you feel that way about my comments--you have misinterpreted but -via your examples --i can see why

bottom line is i am a coldpuncher--and usually play the 2nd choice over the favorite--usually getting more value that way--but in this case i felt very strongly about Questing--and was flat out wrong

irrelevent to that--i was making a point about the myths of slow paces and speed horses--yet to you continue--instead of lending me you insight on my reasoning--decide to dig in and elaborate on my quotes--taken out of context of course

can i guess you are a lawyer and/or a prosecutor?

just asking--seems to be your style--and thats neither good or bad--just the vibe i get on how you prefer confrontation and rarely if ever say anything positive about anyone elses posts or threads--they seem to be all critical and dissective
« Last Edit: September 22, 2012, 11:09:43 PM by coldpunch » Report to moderator   Logged
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2012, 07:26:02 AM »

taken out of context of course

just asking--seems to be your style--and thats neither good or bad--just the vibe i get on how you prefer confrontation and rarely if ever say anything positive about anyone elses posts or threads--they seem to be all critical and dissective

I have taken nothing you have written out of context: you DID bash Ortiz for his ride on Questing. It's right there, in what you wrote.

As far as my "confrontational style", I told you BEFORE the race that your "cold punch exacta" was a bad bet, and you wrote:

this cold exacta Questing over My Miss Aurelia is like sex w Kobe

you may not like it
you may not agree with it
you might think its wrong
you might not want to participate



.....but....its gonna happen anyway

Sorry Voiceman--sometimes the laws of physics takes over and these things happen

...so I think it's YOUR previous comments that should construed as "confrontational"...not to mention startling, and in extremely poor taste.

As far as my responses now..."after the fact"...this is at your suggestion. Do you remember writing this:

Yes--Questing is that good--and we will look back upon this discussion in due time

...and that's all I'm doing. What, were we supposed to "look back" only if you were right?
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coldpunch
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2012, 09:10:08 AM »

thank you for being such a follower of my comments

the season isnt done yet--and if both of these 3yos face Royal Delta and company in the Distaff and Questing00if allowed to roll--i feel is the best female in America and thats what i meant by looking back--not necessarily the Cotilijjion specifically--but overall--like at the seasons end

hey--i was wrong about her yesterday--when you play one way exactas--this will happen

seems like you sit back--make no stances--ignore the posters who are correct--then go on a quoting spree and the lawyerish mentality comes out of you when someone was wrong

you and Burton have much in common
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2012, 11:23:57 AM »

seems like you sit back--make no stances--ignore the posters who are correct--then go on a quoting spree and the lawyerish mentality comes out of you when someone was wrong

Well, you are wrong...guilty of selective reading, perhaps.

I post my share of picks, and the claim that I "make no stances" is just plain silly.

You are free to refute anything I post, but you'll have to get in line behind Terry The Corrector, whose full-time job it is to scan the Forum and take the opposite side of most everything I post.


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coldpunch
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2012, 11:50:54 AM »

Well, you are wrong...guilty of selective reading, perhaps.

I post my share of picks, and the claim that I "make no stances" is just plain silly.

You are free to refute anything I post, but you'll have to get in line behind Terry The Corrector, whose full-time job it is to scan the Forum and take the opposite side of most everything I post.




that will not happen with me--you are one of a small group here who know what the hell is going on

i havent posted a whole lot but have sat back and watched this side of the forum for a long time before posting and know the characters involved

i am a sarcastic and sometimes antagonistic/trash talking type--and many know that--if that rubs you the wrong way---or if certain analogies i use dont agree with your tastes--thats fine--we all have our own opinions, betting styles and perspectives--thats what makes it a forum

i just sense you are as sarcastic if not more than me--and this looks like a case of two smart alecs just coexisting on the same forum

having said all of that--can you please comment--since i do respect your opinion--about why i feel Questing lost?

the weight differential was not the reason--the dry track that McLaughlin complained was not the reason--Irad was not the sole reason--as for MMA being better?maybe--but i still maintain that the "mind culture" of trying to rate a rocketship(at this talent level not a $5k claimer)is exactly the opposite of what the horse wants and is most effective--contrary to many in the racing world who automatically correlate a slow pace with being a good thing--with certain horses it is most undoubtedly NOT- w Questing--"not being cognizant" on the part of both rider and trainer both contributed to this defeat
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2012, 01:14:09 PM »

the weight differential was not the reason--the dry track that McLaughlin complained was not the reason

I am going to respectfully disagree with you on these two items:

* I defer to the Thoro Graph rule on weight differential: 5 lbs. of weight = 1 length. This has been arrived at after analyzing tens of thousands of races, and while it is not written in stone, it IS a very good and useful rule of thumb.

And if you buy it (as I do), then technically speaking, Questing probably ran the superior race yesterday.

* Kiaran wasn't the only trainer complaining about the dry track; the rail was dead as hell all the way out to the 3-path, and the water truck didn't even come around before the Cotillion, according to onsite observers. (That's borderline malpratice by the track super, IMO.)

A dry, loose, deep and tiring surface would definitely kill off Questing's natural speed, don't you think?

We don't really need both of these to explain a head loss; either will do, but if the surface was as "speed tiring" as I think it was, then Questing would have just got beat even worse if the jock tried to make her go faster earlier. Think about it.
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mel4600
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2012, 01:41:51 PM »

7 pounds does make a difference in a route race. The same horse surely would do better with less weight on its back. Not saying the result would have been different because we don't know if  My Miss Aurelia would have reacted differently and how much she still had to give.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2012, 01:42:45 PM »

FWIW, here is what Thoro Graph had to say about the stakes races at Philthy yesterday:

10th  My Miss Aurelia gets a ton of weight from Questing. My Miss Aurelia to Win at 2-1 &
up. B.

BB11th Alpha and Golden Ticket both spot significant weight. Macho Macho is the best horse
here, and there are live longshots. Mach Macho to Win at 3-1 & up. Box—Casual Track,
Handsome Mike, Csaba, Macho Macho. B+.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2012, 01:45:38 PM »

I am going to respectfully disagree with you on these two items:

* I defer to the Thoro Graph rule on weight differential: 5 lbs. of weight = 1 length. This has been arrived at after analyzing tens of thousands of races, and while it is not written in stone, it IS a very good and useful rule of thumb.

And if you buy it (as I do), then technically speaking, Questing probably ran the superior race yesterday.

* Kiaran wasn't the only trainer complaining about the dry track; the rail was dead as hell all the way out to the 3-path, and the water truck didn't even come around before the Cotillion, according to onsite observers. (That's borderline malpratice by the track super, IMO.)

A dry, loose, deep and tiring surface would definitely kill off Questing's natural speed, don't you think?

We don't really need both of these to explain a head loss; either will do, but if the surface was as "speed tiring" as I think it was, then Questing would have just got beat even worse if the jock tried to make her go faster earlier. Think about it.

thank you , Sir for your input

the weight issue is subjective--if you recall after last years Del Cap--Larry Jones has his own pound per furlong "rating system" if you will after he spotted a few pounds to Blind Luck w Havre de Grace--just in my opinion of course--weight is slightly over-rated--but does play a minor role if two horses are of similar talent--with the one exception.... a raw speed freak--where the horse is immediately and naturally "leaving"-to use a harness term--apples and oranges of course--but harness racing has driver weight differentials of as much as 50-60 pounds--and the delta weight there is  because they horse have a moving start--where once in motion --inertia plays a role and the mass already in motion renders the weight meaningless--not saying Questing has a running start--but generally speaking--she is much quicker out of the gate naturally , ....and--once again-in my opinion--places less emphasis on weight

i was there and an onsite observer for the entire card--and one comment that is fact-- @ Parx--the rail is ALWAYS avoided--wet, sloppy, muddy,  dry, hot, -whatever conditions you prefer to toss with exception of maybe a frozen track with an overnight drop in temperature of over 30 degrees in January--as far as a speed bias or the track being fast or slow--there were some quick fractions and the Trinninberg/Currency Swap race went in 109 flat--within the realm of standard--so the track wasnt necessarily slow--but speed wasnt performing as well as usual yesterday--do i think that was related to what McLauglin was referring to(track not being watered)?--i dont know enough about dirt chemistry to honestly make an assessment

i would agree a loose, tiring track would hinder Questings chances--and may help explain the fractions of 25-50-114 being relatively slow for Grade 1 3yo fillies--and it might have been a slight factor--but i dont pin her loss on that

i maintain and respectfully disagree that having Questing go faster would have had her losing even worse than the head she did--and i stick to my "rating a rocket" to attribute the loss

one thing came to mind on thursday--Awesome Feather has a little speed of her own and if she goes to SA as expected--she will force Questing to do what i want her to do--and that may be what she needs to showcase her talents

its refreshing to have a conversation with someone on this side of the foum who "gets it"--Yimmy was an intelligent poster but i havent seen him post in quite some time now--thank you Horse Voice
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2012, 04:24:52 PM »

i maintain and respectfully disagree that having Questing go faster would have had her losing even worse than the head she did

I should have been more clear about the point I was trying to make.

What I should have said was, if Questing was asked to go significantly faster in the early stages of that race on that dry, loose, and speed-tiring surface, she almost certainly would have lost even worse than she did.

Horses do not have unlimited energy, and the best thoroughbreds can only race "all out" (their max speed) for about 2 furlongs. Dr. Sartin created (and other pace advocates continue to use) "distribution of energy" models to help try to figure out where horses with certain running styles would be at various points in the race.

The energy Questing still had late to (almost) fight off MMA late would have most likely been expended earlier if she had tried to run away from the field; one-paced horses like MMA almost always have a much better go of it on the sort of deep, loose surface found at Parx yesterday. 
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coldpunch
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2012, 04:56:38 PM »

I should have been more clear about the point I was trying to make.

What I should have said was, if Questing was asked to go significantly faster in the early stages of that race on that dry, loose, and speed-tiring surface, she almost certainly would have lost even worse than she did.

Horses do not have unlimited energy, and the best thoroughbreds can only race "all out" (their max speed) for about 2 furlongs. Dr. Sartin created (and other pace advocates continue to use) "distribution of energy" models to help try to figure out where horses with certain running styles would be at various points in the race.

The energy Questing still had late to (almost) fight off MMA late would have most likely been expended earlier if she had tried to run away from the field; one-paced horses like MMA almost always have a much better go of it on the sort of deep, loose surface found at Parx yesterday. 


thats the beauty of what i feel is a special horse in Questing--who has proven she is capable of running multiple 23 second quarters(albeit the Alabama was her best effort and only one data point)--MMA and several very good horses can
 run for furlong or two the same as the speedsters--but the speed freaks can run that fast that early and continue to do so--so by not "airing it out" essentially turning into a sprint the length of the stretch and thats NOT why she was 1-2

as far as the surface being deep and loose--not so sure--reviewing the charts shows does off the pace types winning-

also--if Irad does decide to accelerate in the 2nd quarter--you must think Nakatani would be also forced to ask for more in an attempt to keep up--and many times that scenario takes the sting out of what MMA may have had in the stretch--and also on occasion-at this level-- seeing a horse in front of you a considerable distance(say 5-10 lenghts)  also psychologically is somewhat discouraging to the competition--for a 3yo filly more than then an experienced mare

OK--i am done with all of this--thanks for indulging
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2012, 06:47:59 AM »

The inside part of the track at Philly has been completely dead for months......Ortiz did a good job of keeping that horse off the rail as best he could.....I knew she would struggle but I thought at 1 1/16 she would still be able to win.....The same cant be said for Dominguez who rode an awful race on Alpha.....Why he was on the lead an the inside is a total puzzler.....Guess that is why he hides in NY all year.....He apparently didnt watch a race all day and didnt seek out any help from anyone who could tell him how the track was and has been playing for literally months
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SHOWTIME!!!
coldpunch
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2012, 07:56:26 AM »

The inside part of the track at Philly has been completely dead for months......Ortiz did a good job of keeping that horse off the rail as best he could.....I knew she would struggle but I thought at 1 1/16 she would still be able to win.....The same cant be said for Dominguez who rode an awful race on Alpha.....Why he was on the lead an the inside is a total puzzler.....Guess that is why he hides in NY all year.....He apparently didnt watch a race all day and didnt seek out any help from anyone who could tell him how the track was and has been playing for literally months

he rode four other races on the undercard and won two of them(one grass)--but the dirt race he won--he had his horse perfectly placed outside--to suggest Mr Dominguez did not know how the track was playing is nonsense--and he ships out of new york plenty enough to win the earnings title and Eclipse Award the last two years
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2012, 09:07:23 AM »

he rode four other races on the undercard and won two of them(one grass)--but the dirt race he won--he had his horse perfectly placed outside--to suggest Mr Dominguez did not know how the track was playing is nonsense--and he ships out of new york plenty enough to win the earnings title and Eclipse Award the last two years

Then why was he on the rail and on the lead?....His actions speak louder than "your words"......It was a brutal ride.....One of the worst in history for $1,000,000 (lucky for him nobody saw it because nobody watches Philly and the ones who just watched the two big races think he rode great and the horse was no good).....Ortiz completely undressed him suckering him down inside of him around the first turn.....Give credit where credit is due......Ortiz knew the bias, Dominguez didn't.....Unless you wanna stick with your argument that he knew the inside was no good and put his horse down there anyway......Maybe he was betting against himself in a $1,000,000 race? It was also a great ride by Nakatani....Who looked like he was going to be distanced off the turn but found the magic path and somehow got home for 2nd money.....You can unlock the vault on the horse that Dominguez outnodded in the race he won......That horse was incredible......No way he loses next time he races
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SHOWTIME!!!
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2012, 11:54:15 AM »



i am a sarcastic and sometimes antagonistic/trash talking type--and many know that--if that rubs you the wrong way---

Omg coldpnch....are you,...nah....wait....are you OTB reincarnated???   maroon
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Absolutely amazing.......s.m.h.....
coldpunch
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2012, 11:59:29 AM »

Omg coldpnch....are you,...nah....wait....are you OTB reincarnated???   maroon

i dont know about this OTB poster--please elaborate
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2012, 08:06:34 PM »

People seem to be ignoring the possibility that it was a bounce off the absolutely freaky 'Bama.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2012, 08:51:24 PM »

People seem to be ignoring the possibility that it was a bounce off the absolutely freaky 'Bama.

Beyer fig came up 97 vs the 106 she achieved in the Alabama

did the folks say that about her after her CCA Oaks and before the Alabama?
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