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Author Topic: poly: utterly random, or not ?  (Read 2011 times)
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #25 on: September 24, 2012, 05:05:12 AM »

Yes, that's my question, based on your repeated claims, as indicated in the subject line of this thread. Please quit trying to divert the subject.

Go after farquarks, then, for "diverting the subject" by saying that AW is a good complement to turf racing.

Or is it that any POSITIVE comments about Polytrack are welcome, no matter how far off topic?  screwy
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #26 on: September 24, 2012, 10:12:31 AM »

Go after farquarks, then, for "diverting the subject" by saying that AW is a good complement to turf racing.

And "a good complement to turf racing" translates to a challenge to "if it's so good, name any good horses that have run over it" ... how? The common word "good"? Why not ask "if it's so good, name one good concession at AP?" That question has "good" in it, too.

No, you were just trying to derail the subject, just like you are now. You're not fooling anyone.

Please stick to addressing the actual subject matter of predictability of the races over it. Why do NYRA's stats show pretty much the same results for horses of all odds over dirt, poly, and turf, if poly is so darn unpredictable and random? Why is the dumbest player in the universe, John Q. Public, doing such a good job of betting down the proper (as in "winning") contenders in these AP poly races if poly is so darn unpredictable and random?
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farquarks
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« Reply #27 on: September 24, 2012, 04:33:48 PM »

Go after farquarks, then, for "diverting the subject" by saying that AW is a good complement to turf racing.

Or is it that any POSITIVE comments about Polytrack are welcome, no matter how far off topic?  screwy

HV - I did not divert the topic. I find that AP's AW surface mimics turf, and I find turf racing in general to be at least as predictable as dirt. Ergo AW is no more "utterly random" than dirt (or turf).
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2012, 12:16:41 AM »

Results of the final week, all-weather only:

27th

5-1 (fave out)
2-1 (as favorite)
0.3-1 (as favorite)
2.7-1 (fave 3rd)
3.4-1 (fave out)
1.5-1 (as favorite
8.8-1 (fave 3rd, a maiden claimer = nothing to look at)

28th

11.7-1 (fave out) - could be a candidate for additional review ... if you don't accept the obvious: speed duel
23.2-1 (fave out, Chartwell's horse) - since I know these people, I also know there's none of HV's alleged hanky panky
2.3-1 (fave 2nd)
2.9-1 (fave 3rd)
1.7-1 (as the favorite)
2.3-1 (fave 2nd)

29th

3.6-1 (fave out)
2.8-1 (as the favorite)
2.2-1 (as the favorite)
2.4-1 (favorite out)
8.8-1 (2 yo MSW full of unraced horses - nothing to look at)

30th

4.2-1 (fave 3rd)
7.9-1 (fave out)
1.5-1 (as the favorite)
16.1-1 (fave out - big field) - another possible candidate ... IF you consider Leo Gabriel winning a race abnormal
3.2-1 (fave out)

So there we go, two entire weeks of this stuff and pretty much nothing but a constant parade of favorites and low priced horses except for Chartwell's bomb, some mid-prices in maidens or large fields, and a couple of mid-priced horses we could look ta more closely if we thought that mid-priced horses constituted abnormal winners no one could possibly have picked due to the poly ... which I don't because there's winners like that all the time on dirt courses.

Conclusion? Utterly random, not at all. Producing far too many LOW priced horses for some gamblers to make a profit? Definitely. I would have a hell of a time.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2012, 07:27:20 AM »

So there we go, two entire weeks of this stuff and pretty much nothing but a constant parade of favorites and low priced horses.

Conclusion? Utterly random, not at all.

A hasty conclusion arrived at via surface analysis:

* Two weeks at ONE fake track? Hardly a thorough length of study, even if your methods were fair...which they weren't, of course.

* Short fields tend to produce short-priced winners; it doesn't follow that a "logical" horse won a given race, or *any* race, for that matter.

* No examination of 2nd and 3rd place finishers who outran their expected performances.

* No examination of logical horses that simply didn't pick up their feet on the fake surface.

Terry, your "analysis" had one and only one purpose: to prove me wrong. (Go ahead, make a total a.ss out of yourself and deny it.)

It's pretty obvious to any of the 3 people still paying attention to this thread that there was little or no objectivity demonstrated by your findings. You didn't handicap any cards in advance and then measure the results vs. your own handicapping; you merely did a "look-back" and cherry-picked the results that would fit your foregone conclusion.

This was a giant waste of time. You proved nothing, other than anyone can manipulate data to prove whatever foregone conclusion they have reached.

You want to prove something? Keeneland starts Friday: handicap their Polytrack races, post your analysis every day for three weeks, and let's examine the results to see how things match up. Should be a piece of cake, since Polytrack races are so fair and balanced and easy...
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2012, 09:13:58 AM »

A hasty conclusion arrived at via surface analysis:

* Two weeks at ONE fake track?

Two weeks at the fake track you most recently called fake and unpredictable, PLUS NYRA792's statistics for entire seasons.

Quote
Hardly a thorough length of study, even if your methods were fair...which they weren't, of course.

Naturally. Because you say so. Just like you say poly is unpredictable. Roll Eyes

Quote
* Short fields tend to produce short-priced winners; it doesn't follow that a "logical" horse won a given race, or *any* race, for that matter.

Logical to whom? If favorites and low priced horses are winning, it was sure logical to everybody else but you. With only a couple exceptions, it was always horses from the lowest few wagering choices coming in 1st, and generally 2nd as well. That includes short fields and long. There just wer not the results one would expect if poly was producing random and unpredictable results. The two weeks results say the poly races were VERY predictable to the world at large, and NYRA792's stats say the surfaces are almost all exactly equally predictable.

Quote
* No examination of 2nd and 3rd place finishers who outran their expected performances.

Oh, I seeeeeeee ... now it is the 2nd and 3rd place horses that concern us.  Roll Eyes

But actually, I did look at those as I was going through. There were were more long priced horses there, just like at every track, but not actually not all that many big bombers one might call "totally unexpected" by their odds. Not really as many as seem ordinary at most tracks, actually. Lots of low prices finishing 2nd and 3rd as well as winning, including the wagering favorite quite often.

Quote
* No examination of logical horses that simply didn't pick up their feet on the fake surface.

a) There weren't that many favorites (what others saw as logical) in the two or three weeks that just "didn't pick up their feet, and b) That also happens at every track on every surface and for lots of reasons, many of which we as bettors will never know.

Quote
Terry, your "analysis" had one and only one purpose: to prove me wrong. (Go ahead, make a total a.ss out of yourself and deny it.)

 doh

You're a real smart feller, aren't you? Of course there's no denying that. You've been bellowing for several years that poly is totally unpredictable and random, and after your last outburst I finally decided to put the claim to the test by examining some actual data. My actual two weeks worth of data and NYRA792's season worth of actual data says your claim is full of crap. In fact it says the turf races (which I believe you once characterized as something like "real" compared to poly) were far more likely to produce longshot winners and place horses, or in other words was the surface that was random and unpredictable to the general public.

Now then, I think I'm probably not the only one who noticed that when I asked you before to point out all the examples of the totally unexpected poly performances, dead silence or attempts at diversion were all that was forthcoming. Furthermore, you have NEVER backed up your oft repeated claim about poly with any actual examples or data. So now then, I've spent two weeks posting data that clearly says otherwise, and NYRA792 posted data that says the predictability of poly is just about the same as dirt and turf, so let's see your actual data, examples, and statistics that say otherwise.

Quote
You want to prove something? Keeneland starts Friday: handicap their Polytrack races, post your analysis every day for three weeks, and let's examine the results to see how things match up. Should be a piece of cake, since Polytrack races are so fair and balanced and easy...

You are making the same mistake you've been making all along by substituting your personal experience for some greater truth. One person's success or failure does not make a track surface random or unpredictable. Large samples are the only way to prove that one way or another, and John Q. Public is our larger sample. I'm not going to handicap a track I don't play to prove anything to you. How about, instead, you point out the specific races at Keeneland you feel were totally random and unpredictable, and why, and those of us who care can take a look at those and see if we agree?   
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 09:49:49 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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Ed
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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2012, 10:20:00 AM »

AP Poly Stats - 2012 540 Races

      ODDS               WINS       %
      Favs                173        32
      Non Favs < 3-1   83        15
      3-1 - 6-1          162        30
      7-1 - 10-1          56        10
      10-1 - 15-1        36          7
       > 15-1              30          6
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2012, 10:45:39 AM »

AP Poly Stats - 2012 540 Races

      ODDS               WINS       %
      Favs                173        32
      Non Favs < 3-1   83        15
      3-1 - 6-1          162        30
      7-1 - 10-1          56        10
      10-1 - 15-1        36          7
       > 15-1              30          6


Thanks Ed. Those pretty much mirror NYRA792's stats above. The lower odds horses win far more often than the higher priced ones. If it was truly random all the categories would be even. There's nothing mystifying about poly races any more than dirt or turf to John Q. Public.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2012, 08:53:15 PM »

Adios Nardo on a non-grass surface?   Shocked
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2012, 06:43:48 PM »

Day 1 at Keeneland:

r1 - 3.8-1 (fave 2nd)
r2 - 6.1-1 (fave 3rd)
r3 - 2.1-1 (as favorite)
r4 - 2.2-1 (as favorite)
r5 - turf
r6 - 38.9-1 (2yo fillies maiden with lots of 1st timers including top two)
r7 - turf
r8 - 4.9-1 (fave out, bumped start)
r9 - 4.3-1 (as favorite)

Generally much larger fields than AP puts on their poly, and still no great mysteries for John Q. Public
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« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2012, 07:11:43 PM »

There was a race 10, Terry.

12-1 Cat seconder off an awful first-time-out race at a shorter distance at AP. I could see this more if Catalano generally didn't send firsters, or if the horse had broken behind the field and made some late ground 16 wide. But this horse had faded after getting off second in a five-horse field.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2012, 11:02:03 PM »

There was a race 10, Terry.

Not before I left there wasn't, but my error.

Quote
12-1 Cat seconder off an awful first-time-out race at a shorter distance at AP. I could see this more if Catalano generally didn't send firsters, or if the horse had broken behind the field and made some late ground 16 wide. But this horse had faded after getting off second in a five-horse field.

So this 2 y.o. filly ran once previously, at AP (on the poly, I assume), and now in its 2nd lifetime race this 2 y.o. filly reversed form and won on the poly of Keeneland, for a very good trainer who apparently still thought enough of her after that poor race to take her to Keeneland instead of placing her somewhere easier, and also after transferring to a state that's known for some of the most lax medication rules in America. Sorry, no, that can't be considered any surprise or unexpected. Anything at all can and does happen in 2 y.o. races at every track across America ... well, except of course in NY where Pletcher wins every race at $2.40.
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« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2012, 07:01:29 AM »

So we're excluding baby races from this now, are we, Terry? 
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2012, 09:29:00 AM »

So we're excluding baby races from this now, are we, Terry?  

Yes, pretty much. At least, I am, and did all through the AP meet. Unraced and barely raced 2 y.o. are just too unpredictable to begin with. There has to be some body of past performances to make any claim about what a horse "should have done".

If someone is going to make the claim that a 2 y.o. filly waking up in her 2nd lifetime race, from one poly track to another, is evidence of "poly producing random and unpredictable results", then that person probably needs to go back to handicapping 101.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #39 on: October 06, 2012, 10:18:39 AM »

Oh oh! Look out!

Yesterday at Santa Anita:
race 2, two year olds - 11.9 -1 winner!
race 6, two year olds - 55.3-1 winner!  favorite did not pick up its feet! (and this was a n2l allowance - horses with pp's)

Damn that unpredictable polytrack!
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« Reply #40 on: October 06, 2012, 10:47:06 AM »

2yo Mdns
artificial surface  slightly bigger sample size than previously posted data

0.1-1.4         00136  00057    42% 63% 79%    0.80 0.87 0.94       
1.5-3.4          00340  00081    24% 46% 58%    0.80 0.87 0.83         
6.0-7.9          00165  00018    11% 26% 40%    0.88 0.84 0.85         
8.0-9.9          00152  00015    10% 19% 34%    0.97 0.75 0.79       
10.0-14.9       00221  00012    05% 17% 28%    0.72 0.79 0.75       
15.0-19.9       00152  00010    07% 13% 26%    1.17 0.79 0.86         
20.0 UP          00526  00008    02% 05% 11%    0.51 0.57 0.55     
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #41 on: October 06, 2012, 08:53:07 PM »

Well, today at Kee we got:

r1 - 1.90-1 (favorite)
r2 - 2.70-1 (favorite)
r3 - 5.70-1 (fave out after speed duel w/longshot)
r4 - 7.30-1 (2 yo MSW)
r5 - turf
r6 - 0.40-1 (favorite) (25-1 in 2nd. Was that "random", or just an overlooked stakes quality horse?)
r7 - turf
r8 - 8.70-1 (loose on lead in a 2 yo stakes; favorite did not run a lick - was that "random"?)
r9 - turf
r10 - 5.0-1 (fave out)

Tell you what, this is a huge waste of time. It is obvious as hell, from both the large sample stats (thanks NYRA and Ed) as well as the specific days I've reported, that the whole "random" poly story is a hoax. Horses John Q Public expects to win do win, quite often. When there's a longshot, or favorites lose, it's for the same reasons as longshots and beaten favorites everywhere on every surface.
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