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Author Topic: poly: utterly random, or not ?  (Read 2021 times)
honest & balanced terry
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« on: September 20, 2012, 06:21:39 PM »

Day 1, AP, 9/20/12

race#-win odds (comment)
r1 - 3.4-1 (fave 2nd)
r2 - 0.7-1 (as the favorite), 29-1 in 2nd (utterly unexpected in a maiden claimer  Roll Eyes )
r3 - 3-1 (fave 2nd)
r4* - 3.6-1 (3.1-1 lukewarm fave out - *turf)
r5 - 1.4-1 (as favorite)
r6 - 3.3-1 (mild 2.5 fave out)
r7 - 13-1 (another maiden claimer, fave 2nd)
r8* - 1-1 (as favorite - *turf)
r9* - 4.8-1 over 15-1 (and 2.7-1 fave out - *turf)

Conclusion: Without even bothering to look at pp's, no great unfathomable mysteries for Joe Q. Public today
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farquarks
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2012, 08:11:10 PM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface" or something like that. The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2012, 08:17:51 PM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface" or something like that. The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.

You are very polite. Im not!
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2012, 09:56:58 PM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface" or something like that. The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.

We'll just follow along each day until the end of the meet and see what we see.
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2012, 11:10:49 PM »

data from about the last 3 months no races taken off the grass were used

artificial
odds
 0.1-1.4     00915  00381    42% 63% 76%       
1.5-3.4      02742  00683    25% 45% 61%       
3.5-5.9      02432  00339    14% 30% 46%       
6.0-7.9      01373  00140    10% 25% 40%       
8.0-9.9      01107  00097    09% 22% 36%       
10.0-14.9   01731  00113    07% 17% 29%       
15.0-19.9   01096  00056    05% 12% 23%     
20.0 UP      03504  00070    02% 06% 12%
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2012, 11:12:21 PM »

turf
odds
 0.1-1.4         00939  00385    41% 63% 77%     
1.5-3.4          03578  00896    25% 45% 61%     
3.5-5.9          03518  00511    15% 31% 47%     
6.0-7.9          01991  00231    12% 24% 39%     
8.0-9.9          01549  00125    08% 19% 32%     
10.0-14.9       02643  00147    06% 14% 26%       
15.0-19.9       01597  00074    05% 11% 20%       
20.0 UP          05557  00093    02% 05% 10%
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2012, 11:12:56 PM »

data from about the last 3 months no races taken off the grass were used

artificial
odds
 0.1-1.4     00915  00381    42% 63% 76%       
1.5-3.4      02742  00683    25% 45% 61%       
3.5-5.9      02432  00339    14% 30% 46%       
6.0-7.9      01373  00140    10% 25% 40%       
8.0-9.9      01107  00097    09% 22% 36%       
10.0-14.9   01731  00113    07% 17% 29%       
15.0-19.9   01096  00056    05% 12% 23%     
20.0 UP      03504  00070    02% 06% 12%

Thanks NYRA you always come through.  thumbs up

Could you also run us the same stats for the "organic" Hawthorne main track?
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2012, 11:13:59 PM »

dirt
odds
 0.1-1.4         07495  03267    44% 66% 80%      
1.5-3.4          16395  04051    25% 47% 64%      
3.5-5.9          14279  02076    15% 32% 50%      
6.0-7.9          08255  00845    10% 25% 40%      
8.0-9.9          06354  00463    07% 20% 35%      
10.0-14.9       10534  00622    06% 15% 28%        
15.0-19.9       06399  00277    04% 11% 23%      
20.0 UP          18543  00336    02% 06% 12%
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2012, 11:21:28 PM »

Thanks again NYRA, and also for the turf.

If anyone can deduce from those stats any meaningful difference between the public's performance on poly, turf, or dirt, I'd sure like to read it. And if the public does pretty much just as well no matter what the surface, then is the complaint of "random unpredictability" (or whatever) as reported an actual phenomenon, or just a problem the complainant is having? Food for thought. 
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2012, 06:48:49 AM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface"

You two should get a room at Facetious Suites, and crack each other up all night long.

If you were paying attention -- a skill in drastically short supply on the Forum -- you would know that I'm not a fan of ANY Polytrack surface: it simply kills off the brilliant speed horses, which alters the natural race shape enough to make a mess of things. If AP gets mentioned more, I attribute that to this being a Chicago-oriented forum.

The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.

No, the bottom line is: screw Polytrack. It's a piece of shit surface, and I ain't betting it.

I can go the rest of my life without betting a Polytrack race, and not miss a thing: the vast majority of the best horses in the world will still do their best work on turf and conventional dirt tracks. You guys that like fake tracks, fake food, and fake tits -- have at it. More for you.
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2012, 07:04:49 AM »

If anyone can deduce from those stats any meaningful difference between the public's performance on poly, turf, or dirt, I'd sure like to read it. And if the public does pretty much just as well no matter what the surface, then is the complaint of "random unpredictability" (or whatever) as reported an actual phenomenon, or just a problem the complainant is having? Food for thought. 

What, are you a moron?

You think I want to act like the betting public, Terry?

Why would ANYONE do that? As a group, the public is a LOSER -- and a GUARANTEED loser, at that.

You retorts on this topic...your use of statistics to try to make me look foolish, or like I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, this has got to be about the worst effort I've ever seen...or maybe the most simpleton in nature.

It does occur to me, though, that you have so little invested in the game these days that winning or losing only means a couple of bucks either way, to you. And if you don't like me bringing this up, too f'n bad, but it IS relevant: you can make as many pithy statements as you like about Polytrack, because it doesn't affect your bottom line if you only play 10 days a year. 
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2012, 09:00:35 AM »

What, are you a moron?

You think I want to act like the betting public, Terry?

Why would ANYONE do that? As a group, the public is a LOSER -- and a GUARANTEED loser, at that.

The issue here is whether or not polytrack is totally random and unpredictable, as you claim. Not what you want to bet.

Quote
You retorts on this topic...your use of statistics to try to make me look foolish, or like I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, this has got to be about the worst effort I've ever seen...or maybe the most simpleton in nature.

According to these stats, the general public has no more difficulty at all in figuring out how to bet on poly than they do on turf or dirt, so I'd say it's the person who claimed that poly is totally unpredictable that made you look foolish.

Quote
blah blah blah the usual attempt to divert the subject

Yawn.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2012, 11:34:39 PM »

Day 2, AP, 9/21/12

race#-win odds (comment)
r1 - 3.2-1 (fave 3nd)
r2 - 1.5-1 (as the favorite)
r3* - 2.9-1 (as the favorite, *turf)
r4* - 2.5-1 (fave 3rd, *turf)
r5 - 2.1-1 (as the favorite)
r6* -  2.4-1 (*turf)
r7* - 2.5-1 (*turf)
r8 - 3.0-1 (fave 2nd)
r9* - 11.4-1 w/9.6-1 2nd (*turf)
r10* - 27.7-1 (*turf, mcl)

Conclusion, day 2: John Q. Public still having little difficulty with the all weather track. 
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farquarks
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2012, 09:30:10 PM »

No, the bottom line is: screw Polytrack. It's a piece of shit surface, and I ain't betting it.

I can go the rest of my life without betting a Polytrack race, and not miss a thing: the vast majority of the best horses in the world will still do their best work on turf and conventional dirt tracks. You guys that like fake tracks, fake food, and fake tits -- have at it. More for you.

This sounds like a typical loser's lament to me. It's no crime to admit you aren't successful wagering on All Weather surfaces HV. We get it - you think AW is crap. Just do what you're doing - ignore them just as I ignore wagering on certain tracks that I don't seem to be able to beat. From my viewpoint, AW is a good complement to turf racing and it appears to be safer than dirt for horses. That appeals to me.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2012, 10:01:40 PM »

Day 3, 9/22/12

r1 - 2.4-1 (fave 2nd)
r2 - 2.5-1 (fave 2nd)
r3* -5.2-1 (*turf)
r4* - 6-1 (*turf)
r5 - 0.5-1 (as the favorite; 5 horse race)
r6* - 2.5-1 (*turf)
r7* - 8-1 (*turf)
r8 - 4.8-1 (fave 3rd)
r9* - 3.9-1 (*turf and DQ)

Conclusion after day 3: John Q. still having zero "utterly random" type problems ID'ing the proper contenders on the all-weather.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2012, 05:51:50 PM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2012, 10:38:48 PM »

Conclusion after day 3: John Q. still having zero "utterly random" type problems ID'ing the proper contenders on the all-weather.

This is the same "John Q." that just loves McDonalds and Budweiser and GM cars...right?

The same "John Q." that, as a group, loses 20 cents out of EVERY dollar they bet...right?

Yeah, good idea, Terry: let's use ol' John Q. to measure what he best represents: mediocrity.
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2012, 10:59:09 PM »

From my viewpoint, AW is a good complement to turf racing and it appears to be safer than dirt for horses. That appeals to me.

If AW is so "good", you ought to be able to list 20 or more top class horses who excel on it; it's been around long enough, so no excuses.

I came up with Zenyatta and Awesome Gem.  head shake

How about it, Fake Track Afficianados? Twenty top performers. Should be easy.

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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2012, 11:54:40 PM »

This is the same "John Q." that just loves McDonalds and Budweiser and GM cars...right?

The same "John Q." that, as a group, loses 20 cents out of EVERY dollar they bet...right?

Yeah, good idea, Terry: let's use ol' John Q. to measure what he best represents: mediocrity.

Utterly irrelevant. The question is not what beer people drink, but simply whether or not poly is random/unpredictable/whatever, like has been repeatedly claimed. A claim has been made and it is being tested against reality.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2012, 11:55:35 PM »

If AW is so "good", you ought to be able to list 20 or more top class horses who excel on it; it's been around long enough, so no excuses.

Also utterly irrelevant. The question is the predictability of races run over the surface.
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2012, 07:29:03 AM »

Utterly irrelevant. The question is not what beer people drink, but simply whether or not poly is random/unpredictable/whatever, like has been repeatedly claimed. A claim has been made and it is being tested against reality.

Yes, but your measuring stick sucks. The public? Might as well use the "chicken bones" you claim us Sheets users use.
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2012, 07:32:21 AM »

Also utterly irrelevant. The question is the predictability of races run over the surface.

That's YOUR question.

Poster farquarks has raised the issue that AW is a "good complement to turf racing", and I responded to it.

Is it within the realm of your being to let someone else answer a question that is directed to him...or do you "speak for all"?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2012, 07:34:52 AM »

Yes, but your measuring stick sucks. The public? Might as well use the "chicken bones" you claim us Sheets users use.

There can be no better measure of predictability for a race than all handicappers/bettors combined. 
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2012, 07:36:18 AM »

That's YOUR question.

Yes, that's my question, based on your repeated claims, as indicated in the subject line of this thread. Please quit trying to divert the subject.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2012, 05:59:10 PM »

Day 4, AP, 9/23/12

r1 - 0.8-1 (as favorite)
r2 - 2.2-1 (fave 2nd)
r3* - 10.7-1 (*turf)
r4* - 3.1-1 (*turf)
r5 - 2.5-1 (fave 2nd)
r6* - 2.8-1 (*turf)
r7 - 4.2-1 (as 2nd choice, lukewarm 3.9-1 fave out)
r8* - 3.2-1 (*turf)
r9 - 7.3-1 (4th choice, 12 horse IL n1x, Bruggemann)

Conclusion: Once again, that much maligned loser John Q. Public did a pretty exemplary job of selecting the correct contenders to win these all-weather races, with the possible exception of the 9th, which I won't even bother to look up - it could not be considered in any way random since the winner was trained by HV's go-to auto-bet guy on all surfaces, Roger Bruggemann.
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2012, 05:01:31 AM »

Day 4, AP, 9/23/12

r1 - 0.8-1 (as favorite)
r2 - 2.2-1 (fave 2nd)
r3* - 10.7-1 (*turf)
r4* - 3.1-1 (*turf)
r5 - 2.5-1 (fave 2nd)
r6* - 2.8-1 (*turf)
r7 - 4.2-1 (as 2nd choice, lukewarm 3.9-1 fave out)
r8* - 3.2-1 (*turf)
r9 - 7.3-1 (4th choice, 12 horse IL n1x, Bruggemann)

Conclusion: Once again, that much maligned loser John Q. Public did a pretty exemplary job of selecting the correct contenders to win these all-weather races

One favorite is "exemplary"? BS.

Now you are reaching.
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