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Author Topic: poly: utterly random, or not ?  (Read 2140 times)
honest & balanced terry
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« on: September 20, 2012, 06:21:39 PM »

Day 1, AP, 9/20/12

race#-win odds (comment)
r1 - 3.4-1 (fave 2nd)
r2 - 0.7-1 (as the favorite), 29-1 in 2nd (utterly unexpected in a maiden claimer  Roll Eyes )
r3 - 3-1 (fave 2nd)
r4* - 3.6-1 (3.1-1 lukewarm fave out - *turf)
r5 - 1.4-1 (as favorite)
r6 - 3.3-1 (mild 2.5 fave out)
r7 - 13-1 (another maiden claimer, fave 2nd)
r8* - 1-1 (as favorite - *turf)
r9* - 4.8-1 over 15-1 (and 2.7-1 fave out - *turf)

Conclusion: Without even bothering to look at pp's, no great unfathomable mysteries for Joe Q. Public today
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2012, 08:11:10 PM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface" or something like that. The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2012, 08:17:51 PM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface" or something like that. The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.

You are very polite. Im not!
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2012, 09:56:58 PM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface" or something like that. The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.

We'll just follow along each day until the end of the meet and see what we see.
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2012, 11:10:49 PM »

data from about the last 3 months no races taken off the grass were used

artificial
odds
 0.1-1.4     00915  00381    42% 63% 76%       
1.5-3.4      02742  00683    25% 45% 61%       
3.5-5.9      02432  00339    14% 30% 46%       
6.0-7.9      01373  00140    10% 25% 40%       
8.0-9.9      01107  00097    09% 22% 36%       
10.0-14.9   01731  00113    07% 17% 29%       
15.0-19.9   01096  00056    05% 12% 23%     
20.0 UP      03504  00070    02% 06% 12%
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2012, 11:12:21 PM »

turf
odds
 0.1-1.4         00939  00385    41% 63% 77%     
1.5-3.4          03578  00896    25% 45% 61%     
3.5-5.9          03518  00511    15% 31% 47%     
6.0-7.9          01991  00231    12% 24% 39%     
8.0-9.9          01549  00125    08% 19% 32%     
10.0-14.9       02643  00147    06% 14% 26%       
15.0-19.9       01597  00074    05% 11% 20%       
20.0 UP          05557  00093    02% 05% 10%
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2012, 11:12:56 PM »

data from about the last 3 months no races taken off the grass were used

artificial
odds
 0.1-1.4     00915  00381    42% 63% 76%       
1.5-3.4      02742  00683    25% 45% 61%       
3.5-5.9      02432  00339    14% 30% 46%       
6.0-7.9      01373  00140    10% 25% 40%       
8.0-9.9      01107  00097    09% 22% 36%       
10.0-14.9   01731  00113    07% 17% 29%       
15.0-19.9   01096  00056    05% 12% 23%     
20.0 UP      03504  00070    02% 06% 12%

Thanks NYRA you always come through.  thumbs up

Could you also run us the same stats for the "organic" Hawthorne main track?
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2012, 11:13:59 PM »

dirt
odds
 0.1-1.4         07495  03267    44% 66% 80%      
1.5-3.4          16395  04051    25% 47% 64%      
3.5-5.9          14279  02076    15% 32% 50%      
6.0-7.9          08255  00845    10% 25% 40%      
8.0-9.9          06354  00463    07% 20% 35%      
10.0-14.9       10534  00622    06% 15% 28%        
15.0-19.9       06399  00277    04% 11% 23%      
20.0 UP          18543  00336    02% 06% 12%
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2012, 11:21:28 PM »

Thanks again NYRA, and also for the turf.

If anyone can deduce from those stats any meaningful difference between the public's performance on poly, turf, or dirt, I'd sure like to read it. And if the public does pretty much just as well no matter what the surface, then is the complaint of "random unpredictability" (or whatever) as reported an actual phenomenon, or just a problem the complainant is having? Food for thought. 
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2012, 06:48:49 AM »

Nice recap but golly Terry, I've heard so many complaints on this forum about AP's Poly being crappy and so unpredictable - though mostly from someone calling themselves "Horseface"

You two should get a room at Facetious Suites, and crack each other up all night long.

If you were paying attention -- a skill in drastically short supply on the Forum -- you would know that I'm not a fan of ANY Polytrack surface: it simply kills off the brilliant speed horses, which alters the natural race shape enough to make a mess of things. If AP gets mentioned more, I attribute that to this being a Chicago-oriented forum.

The bottom line is that Poly is just another surface for Capper's to include in their analysis. It appears to be safer for the contestants and I like that.

No, the bottom line is: screw Polytrack. It's a piece of shit surface, and I ain't betting it.

I can go the rest of my life without betting a Polytrack race, and not miss a thing: the vast majority of the best horses in the world will still do their best work on turf and conventional dirt tracks. You guys that like fake tracks, fake food, and fake tits -- have at it. More for you.
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2012, 07:04:49 AM »

If anyone can deduce from those stats any meaningful difference between the public's performance on poly, turf, or dirt, I'd sure like to read it. And if the public does pretty much just as well no matter what the surface, then is the complaint of "random unpredictability" (or whatever) as reported an actual phenomenon, or just a problem the complainant is having? Food for thought. 

What, are you a moron?

You think I want to act like the betting public, Terry?

Why would ANYONE do that? As a group, the public is a LOSER -- and a GUARANTEED loser, at that.

You retorts on this topic...your use of statistics to try to make me look foolish, or like I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, this has got to be about the worst effort I've ever seen...or maybe the most simpleton in nature.

It does occur to me, though, that you have so little invested in the game these days that winning or losing only means a couple of bucks either way, to you. And if you don't like me bringing this up, too f'n bad, but it IS relevant: you can make as many pithy statements as you like about Polytrack, because it doesn't affect your bottom line if you only play 10 days a year. 
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2012, 09:00:35 AM »

What, are you a moron?

You think I want to act like the betting public, Terry?

Why would ANYONE do that? As a group, the public is a LOSER -- and a GUARANTEED loser, at that.

The issue here is whether or not polytrack is totally random and unpredictable, as you claim. Not what you want to bet.

Quote
You retorts on this topic...your use of statistics to try to make me look foolish, or like I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, this has got to be about the worst effort I've ever seen...or maybe the most simpleton in nature.

According to these stats, the general public has no more difficulty at all in figuring out how to bet on poly than they do on turf or dirt, so I'd say it's the person who claimed that poly is totally unpredictable that made you look foolish.

Quote
blah blah blah the usual attempt to divert the subject

Yawn.
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2012, 11:34:39 PM »

Day 2, AP, 9/21/12

race#-win odds (comment)
r1 - 3.2-1 (fave 3nd)
r2 - 1.5-1 (as the favorite)
r3* - 2.9-1 (as the favorite, *turf)
r4* - 2.5-1 (fave 3rd, *turf)
r5 - 2.1-1 (as the favorite)
r6* -  2.4-1 (*turf)
r7* - 2.5-1 (*turf)
r8 - 3.0-1 (fave 2nd)
r9* - 11.4-1 w/9.6-1 2nd (*turf)
r10* - 27.7-1 (*turf, mcl)

Conclusion, day 2: John Q. Public still having little difficulty with the all weather track. 
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2012, 09:30:10 PM »

No, the bottom line is: screw Polytrack. It's a piece of shit surface, and I ain't betting it.

I can go the rest of my life without betting a Polytrack race, and not miss a thing: the vast majority of the best horses in the world will still do their best work on turf and conventional dirt tracks. You guys that like fake tracks, fake food, and fake tits -- have at it. More for you.

This sounds like a typical loser's lament to me. It's no crime to admit you aren't successful wagering on All Weather surfaces HV. We get it - you think AW is crap. Just do what you're doing - ignore them just as I ignore wagering on certain tracks that I don't seem to be able to beat. From my viewpoint, AW is a good complement to turf racing and it appears to be safer than dirt for horses. That appeals to me.
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2012, 10:01:40 PM »

Day 3, 9/22/12

r1 - 2.4-1 (fave 2nd)
r2 - 2.5-1 (fave 2nd)
r3* -5.2-1 (*turf)
r4* - 6-1 (*turf)
r5 - 0.5-1 (as the favorite; 5 horse race)
r6* - 2.5-1 (*turf)
r7* - 8-1 (*turf)
r8 - 4.8-1 (fave 3rd)
r9* - 3.9-1 (*turf and DQ)

Conclusion after day 3: John Q. still having zero "utterly random" type problems ID'ing the proper contenders on the all-weather.
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2012, 10:38:48 PM »

Conclusion after day 3: John Q. still having zero "utterly random" type problems ID'ing the proper contenders on the all-weather.

This is the same "John Q." that just loves McDonalds and Budweiser and GM cars...right?

The same "John Q." that, as a group, loses 20 cents out of EVERY dollar they bet...right?

Yeah, good idea, Terry: let's use ol' John Q. to measure what he best represents: mediocrity.
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2012, 10:59:09 PM »

From my viewpoint, AW is a good complement to turf racing and it appears to be safer than dirt for horses. That appeals to me.

If AW is so "good", you ought to be able to list 20 or more top class horses who excel on it; it's been around long enough, so no excuses.

I came up with Zenyatta and Awesome Gem.  head shake

How about it, Fake Track Afficianados? Twenty top performers. Should be easy.

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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2012, 11:54:40 PM »

This is the same "John Q." that just loves McDonalds and Budweiser and GM cars...right?

The same "John Q." that, as a group, loses 20 cents out of EVERY dollar they bet...right?

Yeah, good idea, Terry: let's use ol' John Q. to measure what he best represents: mediocrity.

Utterly irrelevant. The question is not what beer people drink, but simply whether or not poly is random/unpredictable/whatever, like has been repeatedly claimed. A claim has been made and it is being tested against reality.
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2012, 11:55:35 PM »

If AW is so "good", you ought to be able to list 20 or more top class horses who excel on it; it's been around long enough, so no excuses.

Also utterly irrelevant. The question is the predictability of races run over the surface.
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2012, 07:29:03 AM »

Utterly irrelevant. The question is not what beer people drink, but simply whether or not poly is random/unpredictable/whatever, like has been repeatedly claimed. A claim has been made and it is being tested against reality.

Yes, but your measuring stick sucks. The public? Might as well use the "chicken bones" you claim us Sheets users use.
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2012, 07:32:21 AM »

Also utterly irrelevant. The question is the predictability of races run over the surface.

That's YOUR question.

Poster farquarks has raised the issue that AW is a "good complement to turf racing", and I responded to it.

Is it within the realm of your being to let someone else answer a question that is directed to him...or do you "speak for all"?
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2012, 07:34:52 AM »

Yes, but your measuring stick sucks. The public? Might as well use the "chicken bones" you claim us Sheets users use.

There can be no better measure of predictability for a race than all handicappers/bettors combined. 
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2012, 07:36:18 AM »

That's YOUR question.

Yes, that's my question, based on your repeated claims, as indicated in the subject line of this thread. Please quit trying to divert the subject.
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2012, 05:59:10 PM »

Day 4, AP, 9/23/12

r1 - 0.8-1 (as favorite)
r2 - 2.2-1 (fave 2nd)
r3* - 10.7-1 (*turf)
r4* - 3.1-1 (*turf)
r5 - 2.5-1 (fave 2nd)
r6* - 2.8-1 (*turf)
r7 - 4.2-1 (as 2nd choice, lukewarm 3.9-1 fave out)
r8* - 3.2-1 (*turf)
r9 - 7.3-1 (4th choice, 12 horse IL n1x, Bruggemann)

Conclusion: Once again, that much maligned loser John Q. Public did a pretty exemplary job of selecting the correct contenders to win these all-weather races, with the possible exception of the 9th, which I won't even bother to look up - it could not be considered in any way random since the winner was trained by HV's go-to auto-bet guy on all surfaces, Roger Bruggemann.
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2012, 05:01:31 AM »

Day 4, AP, 9/23/12

r1 - 0.8-1 (as favorite)
r2 - 2.2-1 (fave 2nd)
r3* - 10.7-1 (*turf)
r4* - 3.1-1 (*turf)
r5 - 2.5-1 (fave 2nd)
r6* - 2.8-1 (*turf)
r7 - 4.2-1 (as 2nd choice, lukewarm 3.9-1 fave out)
r8* - 3.2-1 (*turf)
r9 - 7.3-1 (4th choice, 12 horse IL n1x, Bruggemann)

Conclusion: Once again, that much maligned loser John Q. Public did a pretty exemplary job of selecting the correct contenders to win these all-weather races

One favorite is "exemplary"? BS.

Now you are reaching.
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« Reply #25 on: September 24, 2012, 05:05:12 AM »

Yes, that's my question, based on your repeated claims, as indicated in the subject line of this thread. Please quit trying to divert the subject.

Go after farquarks, then, for "diverting the subject" by saying that AW is a good complement to turf racing.

Or is it that any POSITIVE comments about Polytrack are welcome, no matter how far off topic?  screwy
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« Reply #26 on: September 24, 2012, 10:12:31 AM »

Go after farquarks, then, for "diverting the subject" by saying that AW is a good complement to turf racing.

And "a good complement to turf racing" translates to a challenge to "if it's so good, name any good horses that have run over it" ... how? The common word "good"? Why not ask "if it's so good, name one good concession at AP?" That question has "good" in it, too.

No, you were just trying to derail the subject, just like you are now. You're not fooling anyone.

Please stick to addressing the actual subject matter of predictability of the races over it. Why do NYRA's stats show pretty much the same results for horses of all odds over dirt, poly, and turf, if poly is so darn unpredictable and random? Why is the dumbest player in the universe, John Q. Public, doing such a good job of betting down the proper (as in "winning") contenders in these AP poly races if poly is so darn unpredictable and random?
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« Reply #27 on: September 24, 2012, 04:33:48 PM »

Go after farquarks, then, for "diverting the subject" by saying that AW is a good complement to turf racing.

Or is it that any POSITIVE comments about Polytrack are welcome, no matter how far off topic?  screwy

HV - I did not divert the topic. I find that AP's AW surface mimics turf, and I find turf racing in general to be at least as predictable as dirt. Ergo AW is no more "utterly random" than dirt (or turf).
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« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2012, 12:16:41 AM »

Results of the final week, all-weather only:

27th

5-1 (fave out)
2-1 (as favorite)
0.3-1 (as favorite)
2.7-1 (fave 3rd)
3.4-1 (fave out)
1.5-1 (as favorite
8.8-1 (fave 3rd, a maiden claimer = nothing to look at)

28th

11.7-1 (fave out) - could be a candidate for additional review ... if you don't accept the obvious: speed duel
23.2-1 (fave out, Chartwell's horse) - since I know these people, I also know there's none of HV's alleged hanky panky
2.3-1 (fave 2nd)
2.9-1 (fave 3rd)
1.7-1 (as the favorite)
2.3-1 (fave 2nd)

29th

3.6-1 (fave out)
2.8-1 (as the favorite)
2.2-1 (as the favorite)
2.4-1 (favorite out)
8.8-1 (2 yo MSW full of unraced horses - nothing to look at)

30th

4.2-1 (fave 3rd)
7.9-1 (fave out)
1.5-1 (as the favorite)
16.1-1 (fave out - big field) - another possible candidate ... IF you consider Leo Gabriel winning a race abnormal
3.2-1 (fave out)

So there we go, two entire weeks of this stuff and pretty much nothing but a constant parade of favorites and low priced horses except for Chartwell's bomb, some mid-prices in maidens or large fields, and a couple of mid-priced horses we could look ta more closely if we thought that mid-priced horses constituted abnormal winners no one could possibly have picked due to the poly ... which I don't because there's winners like that all the time on dirt courses.

Conclusion? Utterly random, not at all. Producing far too many LOW priced horses for some gamblers to make a profit? Definitely. I would have a hell of a time.
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2012, 07:27:20 AM »

So there we go, two entire weeks of this stuff and pretty much nothing but a constant parade of favorites and low priced horses.

Conclusion? Utterly random, not at all.

A hasty conclusion arrived at via surface analysis:

* Two weeks at ONE fake track? Hardly a thorough length of study, even if your methods were fair...which they weren't, of course.

* Short fields tend to produce short-priced winners; it doesn't follow that a "logical" horse won a given race, or *any* race, for that matter.

* No examination of 2nd and 3rd place finishers who outran their expected performances.

* No examination of logical horses that simply didn't pick up their feet on the fake surface.

Terry, your "analysis" had one and only one purpose: to prove me wrong. (Go ahead, make a total a.ss out of yourself and deny it.)

It's pretty obvious to any of the 3 people still paying attention to this thread that there was little or no objectivity demonstrated by your findings. You didn't handicap any cards in advance and then measure the results vs. your own handicapping; you merely did a "look-back" and cherry-picked the results that would fit your foregone conclusion.

This was a giant waste of time. You proved nothing, other than anyone can manipulate data to prove whatever foregone conclusion they have reached.

You want to prove something? Keeneland starts Friday: handicap their Polytrack races, post your analysis every day for three weeks, and let's examine the results to see how things match up. Should be a piece of cake, since Polytrack races are so fair and balanced and easy...
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2012, 09:13:58 AM »

A hasty conclusion arrived at via surface analysis:

* Two weeks at ONE fake track?

Two weeks at the fake track you most recently called fake and unpredictable, PLUS NYRA792's statistics for entire seasons.

Quote
Hardly a thorough length of study, even if your methods were fair...which they weren't, of course.

Naturally. Because you say so. Just like you say poly is unpredictable. Roll Eyes

Quote
* Short fields tend to produce short-priced winners; it doesn't follow that a "logical" horse won a given race, or *any* race, for that matter.

Logical to whom? If favorites and low priced horses are winning, it was sure logical to everybody else but you. With only a couple exceptions, it was always horses from the lowest few wagering choices coming in 1st, and generally 2nd as well. That includes short fields and long. There just wer not the results one would expect if poly was producing random and unpredictable results. The two weeks results say the poly races were VERY predictable to the world at large, and NYRA792's stats say the surfaces are almost all exactly equally predictable.

Quote
* No examination of 2nd and 3rd place finishers who outran their expected performances.

Oh, I seeeeeeee ... now it is the 2nd and 3rd place horses that concern us.  Roll Eyes

But actually, I did look at those as I was going through. There were were more long priced horses there, just like at every track, but not actually not all that many big bombers one might call "totally unexpected" by their odds. Not really as many as seem ordinary at most tracks, actually. Lots of low prices finishing 2nd and 3rd as well as winning, including the wagering favorite quite often.

Quote
* No examination of logical horses that simply didn't pick up their feet on the fake surface.

a) There weren't that many favorites (what others saw as logical) in the two or three weeks that just "didn't pick up their feet, and b) That also happens at every track on every surface and for lots of reasons, many of which we as bettors will never know.

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Terry, your "analysis" had one and only one purpose: to prove me wrong. (Go ahead, make a total a.ss out of yourself and deny it.)

 doh

You're a real smart feller, aren't you? Of course there's no denying that. You've been bellowing for several years that poly is totally unpredictable and random, and after your last outburst I finally decided to put the claim to the test by examining some actual data. My actual two weeks worth of data and NYRA792's season worth of actual data says your claim is full of crap. In fact it says the turf races (which I believe you once characterized as something like "real" compared to poly) were far more likely to produce longshot winners and place horses, or in other words was the surface that was random and unpredictable to the general public.

Now then, I think I'm probably not the only one who noticed that when I asked you before to point out all the examples of the totally unexpected poly performances, dead silence or attempts at diversion were all that was forthcoming. Furthermore, you have NEVER backed up your oft repeated claim about poly with any actual examples or data. So now then, I've spent two weeks posting data that clearly says otherwise, and NYRA792 posted data that says the predictability of poly is just about the same as dirt and turf, so let's see your actual data, examples, and statistics that say otherwise.

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You want to prove something? Keeneland starts Friday: handicap their Polytrack races, post your analysis every day for three weeks, and let's examine the results to see how things match up. Should be a piece of cake, since Polytrack races are so fair and balanced and easy...

You are making the same mistake you've been making all along by substituting your personal experience for some greater truth. One person's success or failure does not make a track surface random or unpredictable. Large samples are the only way to prove that one way or another, and John Q. Public is our larger sample. I'm not going to handicap a track I don't play to prove anything to you. How about, instead, you point out the specific races at Keeneland you feel were totally random and unpredictable, and why, and those of us who care can take a look at those and see if we agree?   
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 09:49:49 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2012, 10:20:00 AM »

AP Poly Stats - 2012 540 Races

      ODDS               WINS       %
      Favs                173        32
      Non Favs < 3-1   83        15
      3-1 - 6-1          162        30
      7-1 - 10-1          56        10
      10-1 - 15-1        36          7
       > 15-1              30          6
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2012, 10:45:39 AM »

AP Poly Stats - 2012 540 Races

      ODDS               WINS       %
      Favs                173        32
      Non Favs < 3-1   83        15
      3-1 - 6-1          162        30
      7-1 - 10-1          56        10
      10-1 - 15-1        36          7
       > 15-1              30          6


Thanks Ed. Those pretty much mirror NYRA792's stats above. The lower odds horses win far more often than the higher priced ones. If it was truly random all the categories would be even. There's nothing mystifying about poly races any more than dirt or turf to John Q. Public.
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« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2012, 08:53:15 PM »

Adios Nardo on a non-grass surface?   Shocked
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2012, 06:43:48 PM »

Day 1 at Keeneland:

r1 - 3.8-1 (fave 2nd)
r2 - 6.1-1 (fave 3rd)
r3 - 2.1-1 (as favorite)
r4 - 2.2-1 (as favorite)
r5 - turf
r6 - 38.9-1 (2yo fillies maiden with lots of 1st timers including top two)
r7 - turf
r8 - 4.9-1 (fave out, bumped start)
r9 - 4.3-1 (as favorite)

Generally much larger fields than AP puts on their poly, and still no great mysteries for John Q. Public
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« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2012, 07:11:43 PM »

There was a race 10, Terry.

12-1 Cat seconder off an awful first-time-out race at a shorter distance at AP. I could see this more if Catalano generally didn't send firsters, or if the horse had broken behind the field and made some late ground 16 wide. But this horse had faded after getting off second in a five-horse field.
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« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2012, 11:02:03 PM »

There was a race 10, Terry.

Not before I left there wasn't, but my error.

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12-1 Cat seconder off an awful first-time-out race at a shorter distance at AP. I could see this more if Catalano generally didn't send firsters, or if the horse had broken behind the field and made some late ground 16 wide. But this horse had faded after getting off second in a five-horse field.

So this 2 y.o. filly ran once previously, at AP (on the poly, I assume), and now in its 2nd lifetime race this 2 y.o. filly reversed form and won on the poly of Keeneland, for a very good trainer who apparently still thought enough of her after that poor race to take her to Keeneland instead of placing her somewhere easier, and also after transferring to a state that's known for some of the most lax medication rules in America. Sorry, no, that can't be considered any surprise or unexpected. Anything at all can and does happen in 2 y.o. races at every track across America ... well, except of course in NY where Pletcher wins every race at $2.40.
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« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2012, 07:01:29 AM »

So we're excluding baby races from this now, are we, Terry? 
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« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2012, 09:29:00 AM »

So we're excluding baby races from this now, are we, Terry?  

Yes, pretty much. At least, I am, and did all through the AP meet. Unraced and barely raced 2 y.o. are just too unpredictable to begin with. There has to be some body of past performances to make any claim about what a horse "should have done".

If someone is going to make the claim that a 2 y.o. filly waking up in her 2nd lifetime race, from one poly track to another, is evidence of "poly producing random and unpredictable results", then that person probably needs to go back to handicapping 101.
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« Reply #39 on: October 06, 2012, 10:18:39 AM »

Oh oh! Look out!

Yesterday at Santa Anita:
race 2, two year olds - 11.9 -1 winner!
race 6, two year olds - 55.3-1 winner!  favorite did not pick up its feet! (and this was a n2l allowance - horses with pp's)

Damn that unpredictable polytrack!
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« Reply #40 on: October 06, 2012, 10:47:06 AM »

2yo Mdns
artificial surface  slightly bigger sample size than previously posted data

0.1-1.4         00136  00057    42% 63% 79%    0.80 0.87 0.94       
1.5-3.4          00340  00081    24% 46% 58%    0.80 0.87 0.83         
6.0-7.9          00165  00018    11% 26% 40%    0.88 0.84 0.85         
8.0-9.9          00152  00015    10% 19% 34%    0.97 0.75 0.79       
10.0-14.9       00221  00012    05% 17% 28%    0.72 0.79 0.75       
15.0-19.9       00152  00010    07% 13% 26%    1.17 0.79 0.86         
20.0 UP          00526  00008    02% 05% 11%    0.51 0.57 0.55     
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« Reply #41 on: October 06, 2012, 08:53:07 PM »

Well, today at Kee we got:

r1 - 1.90-1 (favorite)
r2 - 2.70-1 (favorite)
r3 - 5.70-1 (fave out after speed duel w/longshot)
r4 - 7.30-1 (2 yo MSW)
r5 - turf
r6 - 0.40-1 (favorite) (25-1 in 2nd. Was that "random", or just an overlooked stakes quality horse?)
r7 - turf
r8 - 8.70-1 (loose on lead in a 2 yo stakes; favorite did not run a lick - was that "random"?)
r9 - turf
r10 - 5.0-1 (fave out)

Tell you what, this is a huge waste of time. It is obvious as hell, from both the large sample stats (thanks NYRA and Ed) as well as the specific days I've reported, that the whole "random" poly story is a hoax. Horses John Q Public expects to win do win, quite often. When there's a longshot, or favorites lose, it's for the same reasons as longshots and beaten favorites everywhere on every surface.
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