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Author Topic: Arlington, Saturday the 15 TH  (Read 1170 times)
pamwaggy
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« on: September 17, 2012, 07:21:05 PM »

Can someone tell me how anyone would pick Stig's Deputy to win in the 11 TH race at Arlington on the 15 TH?  E. Perez, love him.  But I saw NOTHING on paper.  And I look real hard on long shots to find one tiny reason!  What did I miss?

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koubie
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2012, 07:41:30 PM »

Pam, I loved that horse and bet him accordingly. I must say the reason I liked him is I bet him the race before and saw he had "hidden" trouble in that race. Go back and watch the race on 8-25-12.
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Chris Szulc
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2012, 07:46:24 PM »

Hi Pammy,

I didn't play this race (nor did I play any on Saturday) but looking back at the PPs I don't think it was that hard to come by. IMO, this allowance race came up VERY soft and this horse has had success in the past going short on turf (where 7 of his 9 wins come from). After the very Key scratch of Captain Jack, this horse was really the leading Early Pace type, and got it done at the front end where his best races have come from. Class handicappers dismissed this horse based on the fact he was never able to get that n1x Allowance win in 6 years of racing, whereas I bet a few pace handicappers got on this horse after the Scratch of CJ.

The fact that he was able to easily put away the other speed horse Gamay, who was coming off a layoff for a 0% 180+day layoff trainer (expected to need a race), helped too.

That's how I see it. Of course, after the fact it's always easier  Grin


All the best,

Chris
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Battled, Tired
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2012, 07:54:35 PM »

Unlike Koubie, I tossed him too, Pam.  Had five others going in the Pick 4 but not this horse, so great work by Koubie to get that one.

I can tell you that in the 30+ years I have played Arlington, both pre and post the fire and poly, strange things begin to happen at the end of the meet, especially with low percentage trainers.  

The rumor has been that barn bills need to be paid and these guys who have been filling up cards all year are getting their payback.

Of course things like that would never happen in a well regulated horse racing program like that in Illinois....silly me!
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2012, 08:02:45 PM »

Pammy, if you can wait about 2 more weeks, Hawthorne will be opening on Friday, October 5, featuring TWO organic and familiar racing surfaces...and more reasonable (less random) racing results.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2012, 08:35:49 PM »

Unlike Koubie, I tossed him too, Pam.  Had five others going in the Pick 4 but not this horse, so great work by Koubie to get that one.

I can tell you that in the 30+ years I have played Arlington, both pre and post the fire and poly, strange things begin to happen at the end of the meet, especially with low percentage trainers.  

The rumor has been that barn bills need to be paid and these guys who have been filling up cards all year are getting their payback.

Of course things like that would never happen in a well regulated horse racing program like that in Illinois....silly me!

The same thing supposedly happens at the end of the meet at every track.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2012, 08:36:56 PM »

Pammy, if you can wait about 2 more weeks, Hawthorne will be opening on Friday, October 5, featuring TWO organic and familiar racing surfaces...and more reasonable (less random) racing results.

Sand is not organic.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2012, 08:47:39 PM »

Sand is not organic.

1. Desert sand, or beach sand? (Careful, "Professor"...others here have been to Chemistry class.)

2. Who has a "sand" course, anyway?

3. Hawthorne has a dirt course and a turf course; whether either of these are supplemented with inorganic substances, reasonable people would agree that for the purpose of this discussion of racing surfaces, dirt and turf courses can readily be classified as "organic", while no thinking person would classify Polytrack as organic.

4. Thanks for playing! Have a free spin on the Loser's Wheel on the way out!
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faster horses
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2012, 08:54:47 PM »

Pammy, if you can wait about 2 more weeks, Hawthorne will be opening on Friday, October 5, featuring TWO organic and familiar racing surfaces...and more reasonable (less random) racing results.

And really crappy horses, unless they do something about their purses.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2012, 08:55:13 PM »

1. Desert sand, or beach sand? (Careful, "Professor"...others here have been to Chemistry class.)

"Sand" is made of rocks and minerals, primarily silica. It was never alive. It was never organic.

Quote
2. Who has a "sand" course, anyway?

Hawthorne's course is primarily sand. It used to be something like 90%, though I think they reduced that in recent years. Most of the rest is clay, also not organic, but a mineral. Some small, very small percentage might be made up of wood fibers and so on.

Quote
3. Hawthorne has a dirt course and a turf course; whether either of these are supplemented with inorganic substances, reasonable people would agree that for the purpose of this discussion of racing surfaces, dirt and turf courses can readily be classified as "organic", while no thinking person would classify Polytrack as organic.

Most reasonable people might call them "natural", but only dim bulbs would call mineral and rock "organic".
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2012, 09:02:47 PM »

"Sand" is made of rocks and minerals, primarily silica. It was never alive. It was never organic.

Most reasonable people might call them "natural", but only dim bulbs would call mineral and rock "organic".

Well, you are wrong. You totally missed the clue about whether you meant "desert sand" or "beach sand":

http://van.physics.illinois.edu/qa/listing.php?id=489

Some types of sand, such as beach sand, have a fair amount of organic component, making it incorrect to call it "inorganic".

(Now...if you want to argue with the guys at U of I, please, have at it.)
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2012, 09:07:45 PM »

Well, you are wrong. You totally missed the clue about whether you meant "desert sand" or "beach sand":

No, I didn't miss that. It's immaterial. Hawthorne isn't importing sand from any beach, unless it is Lake Michigan's beach, and that's going to have ~zero "corals and diatoms", though maybe a few mussels shells.

Hawthorne's sand track is not organic.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2012, 09:10:58 PM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2012, 09:38:17 PM »

No, I didn't miss that. It's immaterial. Hawthorne isn't importing sand from any beach, unless it is Lake Michigan's beach, and that's going to have ~zero "corals and diatoms", though maybe a few mussels shells.

Hawthorne's sand track is not organic.

Hawthorne doesn't have a "sand track". It has sand in it, but it is not 100% sand. Anything with organic content can be classified as "organic", even if it is a compound.

Now...you have time for 800,000 posts here, so I suppose, in your mind, you have time to separate out the grains of beach sand into their organic and inorganic substances...but it's not realistic. This is why your "sand is inorganic" statement fails -- there are exceptions to everything.

You do get credit for being book smart, but your woeful inability to apply that knowledge -- your "no shades of gray" mentality on many subjects here -- is the root cause for many nasty debates.

You don't see the world "as it is" -- you see the world as you are. That is one heavy load -- for all of us here.

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g3tPWNed_24
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2012, 09:49:54 PM »

the owner has had a pretty good year actually with the same trainer winning races at 5 different tracks this year that i know of(haw,AP,cby,prm,hoo), and this horse won at canterbury earlier in the summer so i dont think its a matter of them letting him win to pay the barn bills lol. no one picks the winner every race obviously including when they go several deep sometimes on a multirace wager and many of the best handicappers im sure are left scratching their heads all the time after some races


Unlike Koubie, I tossed him too, Pam.  Had five others going in the Pick 4 but not this horse, so great work by Koubie to get that one.

I can tell you that in the 30+ years I have played Arlington, both pre and post the fire and poly, strange things begin to happen at the end of the meet, especially with low percentage trainers.  

The rumor has been that barn bills need to be paid and these guys who have been filling up cards all year are getting their payback.

Of course things like that would never happen in a well regulated horse racing program like that in Illinois....silly me!
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2012, 10:17:17 PM »

Hawthorne doesn't have a "sand track". It has sand in it, but it is not 100% sand.

It is upwards of 85% sand, and most of the rest, clay. VERY little, and entirely incidental, organic content. It is not an organic surface.

Quote
Now...you have time for 800,000 posts here, so I suppose, in your mind, you have time to separate out the grains of beach sand into their organic and inorganic substances...but it's not realistic.

It's also immaterial, because I'm pretty sure Hawthorne's track (You remember Hawthorne's track, right? The actual subject here?) does not use beach sand with any appreciable organic content like ocean beach sand, assuming it is using beach sand at all, which I doubt.

Quote
You don't see the world "as it is" -- you see the world as you are.

Excuse me, but who is totally derailing the subject of HAWTHORNE'S RACE SURFACE with nonsense about coral and diatoms?

 doh

"Hey! Some sand in Katmandu might contain yeti poop, and that little bit makes it organic, thus probably (but maybe not, who knows, I'm just diverting the subject here) rendering false your claim that the sand [of Hawthorne's track] is inorganic."
« Last Edit: September 17, 2012, 10:21:00 PM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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pamwaggy
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2012, 10:40:02 PM »

Boy oh Boy, maybe it's because I had two glassed of wine at dinner out but I am going to have to print these answers out to study them!

I so appreciate your answers.  I have to study them to see if I missed something or missed nothing!

Thank you all so much.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2012, 10:41:44 PM »

Pam, I loved that horse and bet him accordingly. I must say the reason I liked him is I bet him the race before and saw he had "hidden" trouble in that race. Go back and watch the race on 8-25-12.

Will do, thank you.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2012, 10:09:13 AM »

Pam, I loved that horse and bet him accordingly. I must say the reason I liked him is I bet him the race before and saw he had "hidden" trouble in that race. Go back and watch the race on 8-25-12.

This.
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2012, 11:10:40 AM »

With what the horses deposit on the track, I'd say there's at least SOME organic going on there.   mucker
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2012, 03:28:46 PM »

Pam, I loved that horse and bet him accordingly. I must say the reason I liked him is I bet him the race before and saw he had "hidden" trouble in that race. Go back and watch the race on 8-25-12.

Shoot koubie, I watched the replay over and over.  (those dang trees!)  All I could see was a little something coming out of the gate?   That trouble was really "hidden" to me.

I have to learn to be a better handicapper some way for sure, since others liked that dang horse!
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2012, 04:59:35 PM »

With what the horses deposit on the track, I'd say there's at least SOME organic going on there.   mucker

Good point, SandyLoam. And that small, very small component of added organic content would make the polytrack at AP "organic", too, according to HV's contention that any organic content at all, no matter how small, makes the whole thing organic.

 laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy

Though they are more assiduous about cleaning it up off the poly ... but you know there is a reason it has gone from light fluffy tan to dark dark brown over the years.  sneaky And that's not to mention all the organic stuff that's blown into it, like hairs, and seeds, and horse snot and blood, and whatnot. No doubt about it, poly tracks are organic.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2012, 05:02:49 PM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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koubie
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2012, 08:29:37 AM »

Pam, Watch the race at 54 seconds to 59 seconds the #4 Stigs Deputy get bumped bad and comes again only to get pushed to the inside. That's what I saw. Equibase didn't mention anything at all in the chart line and thats what I mean about "hidden".
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2012, 10:07:53 AM »

Good point, SandyLoam. And that small, very small component of added organic content would make the polytrack at AP "organic", too, according to HV's contention that any organic content at all, no matter how small, makes the whole thing organic.

 laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy

Though they are more assiduous about cleaning it up off the poly ... but you know there is a reason it has gone from light fluffy tan to dark dark brown over the years.  sneaky And that's not to mention all the organic stuff that's blown into it, like hairs, and seeds, and horse snot and blood, and whatnot. No doubt about it, poly tracks are organic.

terry, you may have given CDI a new marketing angle for Arlington: "All Natural PolyTrack: Dig It."

Seriously, both tracks probably have a real fair amount of herbicide on them. That can't be good.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2012, 11:49:49 AM »

terry, you may have given CDI a new marketing angle for Arlington: "All Natural PolyTrack: Dig It."

You're far too kind. HV deserves all the credit:

"Anything with organic content can be classified as "organic", even if it is a compound."

And, I might add ... all that rubber that's in polytrack? Yep, you guessed it ... organic. (As long as it was real rubber, anyhow, and not some phony synthetic rubber ... but oh, wait ... synthetic rubber, isn't that derived from petroleum compounds, and petroleum itself is ... ORGANIC!)

Wow, it seems to me like a polytrack might actually be more "organic" than most dirt tracks!

 laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy
« Last Edit: September 19, 2012, 11:54:10 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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Prairie
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2012, 10:27:41 PM »

Stig's Deputy is a scrappy little horse that just plain loves to run!

I've watched him for years, and I'm never surprised when he wins.   Smiley
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