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Author Topic: Freehold and Meadowlands  (Read 2867 times)
coldpunch
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2012, 10:24:45 AM »

as soon as he looks up infidel on the 'net--and after consulting himself--he will reply back real soon
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burton
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« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2012, 10:34:19 AM »

Don't understand why people who believe this is occurring (9 of 10 times) still wager?
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Blue Chip55
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« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2012, 10:38:33 AM »

Don't understand why people who believe this is occurring (9 of 10 times) still wager?

There are obviously a lot of things u dont understand
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Yimmy
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« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2012, 10:49:44 AM »

Some of us have stopped betting on harness racing.  Wink
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coldpunch
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2012, 10:52:53 AM »

Don't understand why people who believe this is occurring (9 of 10 times) still wager?

thats the best comeback you have?

i was expecting more

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burton
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« Reply #30 on: September 11, 2012, 10:58:58 AM »

Some of us have stopped betting on harness racing.  Wink
That makes sense then.
Isn't this happening in t-breds?
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Yimmy
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« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2012, 11:12:56 AM »

The answer is yes and no.

I watched races from Ruidoso, which has the shortest races imaginable, and theoretically would be prime territory for open-window doods.  If the "inevitable minute delay" that some people have alluded to were an inescapable reality, you'd see odds changes there not only during the races, but after them.

There are NONE.  Those windows are being closed early, which is as it should be.

But, at the major league tracks, I see a lot of open-lead frontrunners get a lot of post-start money. 

A little different there, though, for the folowing reasons:

a) at non-bullring, natural-surface tracks, speed is not terribly dominant;

b)  in distance races, save for weird exceptions (Belmont 10 f inner-turf, where they break into a turn), knowing who's leading at the quarter helps only if the first fraction is, like, 26 seconds.  Happens occasionally in Chicago; VERY rarely in NY or KY or FL.

But yes, I tread carefully in races under 6f.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #32 on: September 11, 2012, 11:13:35 AM »

That makes sense then.
Isn't this happening in t-breds?

i will entertain you by continuing

yes--DRF columnist Mike Welsh wrote more than a few pieces on this happening @ Calder--strangely--some horses who had a big lead after a half mile were suddenly getting pounded during the race

i suggest you watch the races @ freehold--but you wouldnt know what to look for and/or properly diagnose the situation--so dont bother
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burton
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« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2012, 11:15:20 AM »

The answer is yes and no.

I watched races from Ruidoso, which has the shortest races imaginable, and theoretically would be prime territory for open-window doods.  If the "inevitable minute delay" that some people have alluded to were an inescapable reality, you'd see odds changes there not only during the races, but after them.

There are NONE.  Those windows are being closed early, which is as it should be.

But, at the major league tracks, I see a lot of open-lead frontrunners get a lot of post-start money. 

A little different there, though, for the folowing reasons:

a) at non-bullring, natural-surface tracks, speed is not terribly dominant;

b)  in distance races, save for weird exceptions (Belmont 10 f inner-turf, where they break into a turn), knowing who's leading at the quarter helps only if the first fraction is, like, 26 seconds.  Happens occasionally in Chicago; VERY rarely in NY or KY or FL.

But yes, I tread carefully in races under 6f.
This probably belongs on the other board, but what tracks do you play the most on t-breds?
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Yimmy
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« Reply #34 on: September 11, 2012, 11:16:57 AM »

NYRA and Gulfstream, and Kee/CD, depending upon season.  Learning Arl/Haw with the able assistance of several of the good t-bred laddies.
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the exactorman
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« Reply #35 on: September 11, 2012, 03:17:58 PM »


Amen
CPW and CPunch, you guys understand it. For those dense contrarians who have to always doubt this happens, I have a solution to educate them.
I love both games, T-Breds and Harness. I have been going to tracks for 35+ years, and I do not mean 35+ years a few times a year. I go to probably 20 different tracks a year around the US and Canada, and I go to those tracks @ 150x/year.
If these doubters cant go to tracks live as much as much as I do they should:
 #1 open an online account with video access, or watch TVG, HRTV, whatever. #2 watch many races from the certain tracks in question. #3 Get the odds exactly at post time. #4 when the gates open and during the race, see what happened to the odds on the horse that sit trips 1-2-3-and 4. I Guarantee you 9x out of 10 the horses that sit "trips" in the top 4 odds go DOWN. I follow this EVERY DAY!!!!!!. Now given those facts, are these doubters going to tell me its a cooincidence? Late money just "happened" to come in on those horses?. Another odd phenomenon is when a horse breaks, gets a bad start, dwelts at gate, etc---notice if this horse ever is lucky enough to win or come close--his odds go UP...now why is this??? because if I was one of these "big fish" I would see a horse break/get a bad start (because after all I am being given a 40-50 second advantage nobody else at track is getting), and I would NOT bet on the horse. But the race "breaks down" and favprs a dead closer and messes au the applecart so to speak. I thank CPW and Cpunch and many educated others that follow this closely and see this because 1/2 public is being "taken" and Robbed!!!!!!
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burton
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« Reply #36 on: September 11, 2012, 03:29:48 PM »

I thank CPW and Cpunch and many educated others that follow this closely and see this because 1/2 public is being "taken" and Robbed!!!!!!
Why do those who believe this continue to bet?
You have to absolutely hate money to ever place a wager.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #37 on: September 11, 2012, 03:38:21 PM »

Burton, I already answered that.
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the exactorman
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« Reply #38 on: September 11, 2012, 03:56:09 PM »

Why do those who believe this continue to bet?
You have to absolutely hate money to ever place a wager.
Mr Burton, I speak for myself...its because I am a jellyfish and love betting horses. I have never liked any other form of gambling. I do not like sports betting (although I love sports), cards, or casinos.
Why am I asking too much for wanting this cleaned up?
I agree with Yimmy's earlier post, just getting the lead, or into the first 4 doesnt necessarily make you a winner, but its a major advantage. If someone gave me 15 extra seconds (not even 40-50) I would win 75% of the time....
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burton
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« Reply #39 on: September 11, 2012, 03:59:50 PM »

Mr Burton, I speak for myself...its because I am a jellyfish and love betting horses. I have never liked any other form of gambling. I do not like sports betting (although I love sports), cards, or casinos.
Why am I asking too much for wanting this cleaned up?
I agree with Yimmy's earlier post, just getting the lead, or into the first 4 doesnt necessarily make you a winner, but its a major advantage. If someone gave me 15 extra seconds (not even 40-50) I would win 75% of the time....
You have to absolutely hate money to ever place a wager.
Good luck to you!!!!!!!!!
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Yimmy
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« Reply #40 on: September 11, 2012, 04:22:40 PM »

Would you agree, Burton, that even the perception of yet another information asymmetry hurts the game?
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coldpunch
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« Reply #41 on: September 11, 2012, 04:31:35 PM »

a thank you to exactorman for seeing whats going on

i was in denial in early 2010--but a close friend showed me , and after one month, i was convinced it was happening
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Blue Chip55
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« Reply #42 on: September 11, 2012, 04:33:17 PM »

a thank you to exactorman for seeing whats going on

i was in denial in early 2010--but a close friend showed me , and after one month, i was convinced it was happening

Its good to have friends like that  beer
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burton
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« Reply #43 on: September 11, 2012, 04:44:57 PM »

Would you agree, Burton, that even the perception of yet another information asymmetry hurts the game?
But of course, Yimmy.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #44 on: September 11, 2012, 04:50:52 PM »

Then we agree at least on that.

Stay thirsty, my friend. Smiley
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Sea Biscuit
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« Reply #45 on: September 11, 2012, 05:50:20 PM »

OH--OK

ever heard of Mr Parham?--he has computers all lined up in sequence with many combinations locked in--just waiting for the send button to be clicked--they watch and wait for breakers/laggards behind the gate--then pound the other combinations--if they see a blaster from the 8 hole clear easily-that horse gets used hard, etc, etc

he is just one of them--there is a professional @ Lexington who has been doing this for over a dozen years--he is a highroller and the host tracks allow it to bolster their handle

three venues--harrington, lexington and a dog track in florida are the three infamous venues where the cash goes in at around the half mile pole--if you think i am fabricating this whole story--watch the races from freehold-watch the odds as the gate leaves-watch the first quarter-then watch the odds move after the half--then report back to me and tell me i am wrong

Mr Coldpunch is telling all these wild stories as if he actually knows the name of the person who is pushing that send button for Dan Parham. I have heard of many computer systems for harness racing. I have heard of speed handicapping, class and pace handicapping but never a system based for stragglers/laggards/breakers behind a gate. I suppose he is talking about those laggards/breakers who are the favorite in the race

Dana must be having the patience of a Tibetan Monk because as we all know those races are few and far between.

In any case he peeked my curiosity  and I decided to do look for what he was talking about. I checked for Freehold for Saturday Sept 8. Here are my findings.

Race 5

#6 Andy Baran and #5 Astreos Flash were the early leaders in the race and were sitting 1-2 at the mile call. #6 Andy Baran was 7/2 at 0 MTP and he closed at 4-1. #5 Astreos Flash was 5/2 at 0 MTP and he closed at 3.20-1. These two horses odds actually went up instead of down. The race finished  #6 on top of #5  and the 6/5 exacta paid a nice $49.80.

How could Dana miss that with the knowledge that he could bet at the mile call. Maybe Dana dozed off in the race. Its possible but improbable.

Race 10

#3 Diamand Tara  Lead all the way from start to finish until she yielded in the strech to come a good 2nd. Her odds at 0 MTP were 3-1 and she closed at 4.50-1. She lead all the way and yet her odds went up instead of down. How did Dana miss that?   I can only wonder.

Race 12

#1 Cams Future was 9/5 at 0 MTP and he closed at 1.20-1. His odds went down. Nothing extraordinary about that but for the fact that he actually had an interference break at the pole and was taken out of the race. Dana and the open window players were caught napping once again.


Seriously folks what Coldpunch and the other open window theorists are propagating is all bullshit. I found that the betting patterns at Freehold were no different than any other track say like Mohawk/Woodbine.
If anybody wants to see the print screen of my ADW intervals betting cycles for Freehold, just PM me and I will be most happy to provide the link for it.
 



 




« Last Edit: September 11, 2012, 05:58:07 PM by Sea Biscuit » Report to moderator   Logged
Blue Chip55
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« Reply #46 on: September 11, 2012, 05:53:45 PM »

Imbecile
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Sea Biscuit
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« Reply #47 on: September 11, 2012, 06:01:21 PM »

Imbecile

Truth hurts, doesn't it.

What an imbecilic reply. Not surprising though.
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the exactorman
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« Reply #48 on: September 11, 2012, 06:07:27 PM »

Truth hurts, doesn't it.

What an imbecilic reply. Not surprising though.
Thanks for dismissing 1000's of races watched for years, by posting your "findings" from several races at Freehold on ONE particular afternoon. It seems no matter what anyone posts, you find a way to disagree with it, why is that?Huh
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Sea Biscuit
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« Reply #49 on: September 11, 2012, 06:22:54 PM »

Thanks for dismissing 1000's of races watched for years, by posting your "findings" from several races at Freehold on ONE particular afternoon. It seems no matter what anyone posts, you find a way to disagree with it, why is that?Huh

This is a harness racing discussion board. There are pros and cons to every debate. Don't expect me to agree with you and clap every time you post.

Coldpunch challenged other posters to look at Freehold and I did and I printed what I found. If i go through six months of previous data for Freehold I could Probably find hundreds of other races which do not support the open window theory.

You, Sir, have a closed mind. To each his own.
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