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Author Topic: AP Race Selections Friday 8/31  (Read 1413 times)
honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #50 on: September 02, 2012, 12:41:26 AM »

OK, cliffyy, if you say so.  Roll Eyes

Ever notice how the folks from BTW that make the most money at the track don't disclose in advance what their selections are, nor how they came up with them?

Such as your own [non-winning] picks?
« Last Edit: September 02, 2012, 12:43:30 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #51 on: September 02, 2012, 01:36:38 AM »

Such as those who claim the sheets 0-2-X (or whatever) works "everywhere" for big longshots, for instance, but the times they specifically do mention their picks, they totally tank?  

Maybe you should learn English a little better: big difference between me saying that an angle (which even the most elementary horseplayer realizes doesn't work all the time) works "everywhere" (which is true of 0-2-X, in my experience), and claiming that it works "every time".

You seem to be stuck on the latter; problem is, no one made that specific claim.
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« Reply #52 on: September 02, 2012, 01:40:55 AM »

Such as your own [non-winning] picks?

You know, it takes a real Manly Man  chicken chicken chicken

to never post any selections / analysis out here, then criticize someone else's.

WAFCoward.
 
 

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« Reply #53 on: September 02, 2012, 07:52:16 AM »

OK, cliffyy, if you say so.  Roll Eyes


 Cheesy

C'mon, Terry... you've gotta admit that was funny.  Wink
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #54 on: September 02, 2012, 01:26:08 PM »

Maybe you should learn English a little better: big difference between me saying that an angle (which even the most elementary horseplayer realizes doesn't work all the time) works "everywhere" (which is true of 0-2-X, in my experience), and claiming that it works "every time".

No, no one said said "every time". They did however say "everywhere", and it turns out that everywhere was not AP and not in this instance.

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You seem to be stuck on the latter

No, I'm stuck on debunking the casting of sheets chicken bones. It's the case of the infinite monkeys typing - every once in awhile they randomly hit on something, but you only know it after the fact.

"It might not work today, but it sometimes works!"
"He might turn in an X, or he might go forward"
"Use lightly in exotics"
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« Reply #55 on: September 02, 2012, 01:34:25 PM »

You know, it takes a real Manly Man  chicken chicken chicken

to never post any selections / analysis out here, then criticize someone else's.

WAFCoward.

It also takes a real manly man to criticize/fabricate the ability and play of others when he has no clue at all, particularly when the evidence he presents for his own ability here on the forum is "iffyy" at best.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #56 on: September 02, 2012, 01:44:12 PM »

Cheesy

C'mon, Terry... you've gotta admit that was funny.  Wink

If your idea of success at horse racing is posting picks on a forum, I guess maybe. Mine is more oriented toward making money, based on the odds and what wagers I might make of them, at near post time.  I'm truly sorry HV is so calcified and unimaginative in his "one size fits all" handicapping approach that he can't figure out poly races and how to bet them, and so thinks no one can if a self-declared genius such himself can't do it. He's wrong about that. I'm having quite a nice little run here, based mostly on the observation I posted above, and $10 million per day of handle agrees with me that the races are bettable.
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« Reply #57 on: September 03, 2012, 02:20:57 PM »

It also takes a real manly man to criticize/fabricate the ability and play of others when he has no clue at all, particularly when the evidence he presents for his own ability here on the forum is "iffyy" at best.

At least I post something, even if it isn't quite my best work at the moment.

What's your excuse, though? If Polytrack is so damn easy to handicap, surely you could post a pick or two in advance, Mr. "I'm Comfortably Ahead at Del Mar"...right?

You give us nothing of your own work to examine, then complain because your ability is being fabricated?

What, you think no one was going to spot this little gem? (And you claim that I insult the Forum member's intelligence! Hypocrite.)

More on this next post...
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« Reply #58 on: September 03, 2012, 02:32:46 PM »

If your idea of success at horse racing is posting picks on a forum, I guess maybe. Mine is more oriented toward making money, based on the odds and what wagers I might make of them, at near post time.
 

In other words, you are betting the board; in essence, you are standing on the shoulders of others. That's a valid gambling technique...but it ain't handicapping, and you know it.

The argument is whether Polytrack can be adequately handicapped. I can't figure it out, because there are too many random changes in race shape, running styles, etc.

Of course, *someone* is figuring it out, and you are very clever for riding their collective coattails to pari-mutuel success. Nothing wrong with that...but it doesn't give you license to chastise me or anybody else who is trying to do some actual handicapping in advance.

$10 million per day of handle agrees with me that the races are bettable.

Sure. How much gets bet on lottery every day? What about slots?

Anything is "bettable", but as a measurement of potential profitablity, it's pretty empty. What makes Del Mar bettable is the chance to hit huge win and exotics prices if the randomness smiles on you for a couple of races. Who wants to bet a track that will have $6 horses and $12 exactas all day long?
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« Reply #59 on: September 03, 2012, 03:35:45 PM »

Gulfstream (dirt) to Keeneland (poly) was a MESS.  Terry, any guidance (from you) would be appreciated.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #60 on: September 03, 2012, 09:57:17 PM »

At least I post something, even if it isn't quite my best work at the moment.

Yes, you do, and it hasn't been your "best work" for several years. That's what makes it notable, as opposed to the myth you have created for your anonymous screen name.

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What's your excuse, though?

I have told you at least 32 dozen times that I do not handicap until I get to the track, and I don't decide what horse(s) I'm betting until I see odds. Do you have Alzheimer's?

Quote
You give us nothing of your own work to examine

No, I don't, because you're not worth doing work ahead of time that I don't normally do.

At the same time, I also have not made a forum career of being a boorish and overbearing dick criticizing and ridiculing everyone else's [imagined] handicapping skills and practices while spinning an anonymous screen name yarn about my own superiority in every regard, like you have. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who has noticed the extreme disconnect between your malodorous public picks to the forum and the fairy tale you have created about your bad handicapping pen name.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #61 on: September 03, 2012, 10:11:52 PM »

 

In other words, you are betting the board; in essence, you are standing on the shoulders of others. That's a valid gambling technique...but it ain't handicapping, and you know it.

WTF? Where does that definition of "handicapping" come from?

I have identified my various top rank and 2nd rank contenders (generally in between races), and decide at near post time what wager I'm going to make with them, if any, based on the odds. It's the simplest scheme in all the handicapping books - "bet perceived value/overlays". Only a dimwit would pick some horse at 9:00 a.m. and say, "I'm going to bet that horse, come hell or high water, because that's 'true' handicapping! Duuuuh -- uhhhh!"

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The argument is whether Polytrack can be adequately handicapped. I can't figure it out, because there are too many random changes in race shape, running styles, etc.

There are too many things YOU don't understand and cannot fathom, is what you mean. Just because you don't see things does not mean others don't, however. I still say these races I've seen over the past six days, when there were enough past races to establish some form, mostly all made sense, even if I didn't make a winning wager.

Quote
Of course, *someone* is figuring it out, and you are very clever for riding their collective coattails to pari-mutuel success.

Now you are just making shit up again. I said nothing of the sort. That's your imagination.

If there was ever a more dishonest poster than you, constantly arguing against fabrications of your own mind, I don't think I've encountered them. What B.S.
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« Reply #62 on: September 04, 2012, 12:30:19 PM »

I don't know how it is long-term in Chitown or on the West Coast, but in NY, some of the top trainers (especially Chad Brown, but also Rudy Rodriguez) are generally not to be found when their horses are notably underbet. 

Betting overlays was a great strategy back in the day; the leading author about harness racing wrote two books about doing exactly this.  But in harness racing, that strategy has long since become a doomsday scenario (and that author has not been to the track in 30 years).  Doubtless, some winning t-breds are overlays.  But, at least in NY, many of 'em aren't.   

?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #63 on: September 05, 2012, 12:13:25 AM »

I don't know how it is long-term in Chitown or on the West Coast, but in NY, some of the top trainers (especially Chad Brown, but also Rudy Rodriguez) are generally not to be found when their horses are notably underbet. 

Betting overlays was a great strategy back in the day; the leading author about harness racing wrote two books about doing exactly this.  But in harness racing, that strategy has long since become a doomsday scenario (and that author has not been to the track in 30 years).  Doubtless, some winning t-breds are overlays.  But, at least in NY, many of 'em aren't.   
?

I just don't bet short priced horses, overlay or not. It's not worth the risk. It's why I've been avoiding the more predictable (up until Sunday, anyhow) Del Mar races and concentrating on the 2yo races that are producing so many bombs. I can make money when bombs are coming in. I can't when every winner is paying $4.20.
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« Reply #64 on: September 05, 2012, 08:23:31 AM »

I don't know how it is long-term in Chitown or on the West Coast, but in NY, some of the top trainers (especially Chad Brown, but also Rudy Rodriguez) are generally not to be found when their horses are notably underbet.  

Betting overlays was a great strategy back in the day; the leading author about harness racing wrote two books about doing exactly this.  But in harness racing, that strategy has long since become a doomsday scenario (and that author has not been to the track in 30 years).  Doubtless, some winning t-breds are overlays.  But, at least in NY, many of 'em aren't.  

?

From the bettor's perspective, certainly true. Now, the way things are now, the set-up, there are not actual significant differences of opinion amongst bettors BECAUSE most bets at the track are, in reality, LOSING BETS.  Even among bets that look like good bets or are CLOSE to being good bets.  At the time you make em, they only appear to be good bets, regardless of whether you actually cash your ticket, or not, and in all likelihood they're probably, most likely, not.  It's an illusion that trumps the horses' talent, and is irrespective of its odds.


Horse racing is more about politics, now, than it is about sport.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2012, 08:38:48 AM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #65 on: September 05, 2012, 09:33:11 AM »

From the bettor's perspective, certainly true. Now, the way things are now, the set-up, there are not actual significant differences of opinion amongst bettors BECAUSE most bets at the track are, in reality, LOSING BETS.  Even among bets that look like good bets or are CLOSE to being good bets.  At the time you make em, they only appear to be good bets, regardless of whether you actually cash your ticket, or not, and in all likelihood they're probably, most likely, not.  It's an illusion that trumps the horses' talent, and is irrespective of its odds.


Horse racing is more about politics, now, than it is about sport.

LOL. Does this make sense? Or what?

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« Reply #66 on: September 05, 2012, 09:37:08 AM »

Yes, you do, and it hasn't been your "best work" for several years.

Talk about making shit up. The only time you've noticed anything is when I post a losing pick, which is fine: I don't need nor want any huzzahs from you. You sure have a lot of goddamned nerve saying anything about anyone's losers, though; you can't spin your way out of that.

Other people here that don't post any selections are wise enough to keep their mouth's shut about other people's losers...even clockerbob, who probably has a right to rip me a new one, is wise enough to know to keep quiet; I guess you aren't as clever as you'd have us believe.

I have told you at least 32 dozen times that I do not handicap until I get to the track, and I don't decide what horse(s) I'm betting until I see odds. Do you have Alzheimer's?

I never seen you make this claim before. If you can produce even one instance of proof of this, I'd be mighty surprised; otherwise, you might want to check yourself on that Alzheimer's there, Graysack.

No, I don't, because you're not worth doing work ahead of time that I don't normally do.

Really? Could you be more lame?

I already suspect you don't play much more than a day or two per month, so do you really think I'd play your rusty-ass picks if you posted them? You make no sense whatsoever.

The truth is, you won't post in advance because you know damn well it's hard to come up with winning selections hours in advance, and you don't want to give me or anyone else any cannon fodder if you post losers...yet you come after me for my losers? That's chickenshit, Terry. Pure cowardice.

At the same time, I also have not made a forum career of being a boorish and overbearing dick criticizing and...

laughing guy

Pot, meet Kettle.

You are correct, in that you haven't specialized: you are just a boorish and overbearing dick, in general; an "All-Purpose Dick", if we were advertising you on TV.

(And now that you've had your own little tantrum...how did you put it? An "angry chimpanzee shit-flinging act"...I gotta know: do you feel better?    poor baby    )
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #67 on: September 05, 2012, 10:09:29 AM »

Talk about making shit up. The only time you've noticed anything is when I post a losing pick, which is fine

I usually don't notice at all, but I did see (and was told) that you have been stinking it out big time recently.

Quote
I don't need nor want any huzzahs from you.

And I don't care what you think about my abilities, either.

Quote
You sure have a lot of goddamned nerve saying anything about anyone's losers

Normally I don't mention anyone's losers, but since you have made a career out of simply making up imagined handicapping failings/shortcomings of others and then beating them over the head with your phony constructs, the facts of your own documented failings here on the forum become an issue.  

Quote
Other people here that don't post any selections are wise enough to keep their mouth's shut about other people's losers

And others are also wise enough not to continually ridicule the abilities of others, particularly with fabricated assumptions about which one has zero actual knowledge. But not you. You have too much of your ego tied up being "a better handicapper than the next guy", and a seemingly pathological need to denigrate and ridicule anyone else to make yourself seem more important.
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« Reply #68 on: September 06, 2012, 06:56:45 PM »

Why do you even bother responding to a guy who starts his post (and many others in the same thread) with "I dont want to keep beating a dead horse or harping on the obvious" and then proceeds to do just that? AGAIN!

 doh

When he also provides us with all the examples of horses that run just fine, or even win, first fronts, and then compare and contract those with the ones like today, in some sort of meaningful statistical comparision, then maybe he will have something. Until then, he's just doing nothing better than redboarding.

http://www.barntowire.com/smf/index.php?topic=47917.75

Come on, Terry.  You do it too.  And, yes, there are posters here who know a lot about handicapping, and some who quite obviously know little about it (and, worse yet, believe otherwise).
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #69 on: September 06, 2012, 08:03:44 PM »

So, "When he also provides us with all the examples of horses that run just fine, or even win, first fronts, and then compare and contract those with the ones like today, in some sort of meaningful statistical comparision, then maybe he will have something. Until then, he's just doing nothing better than redboarding" from May 12 is the best and most recent example you can come up with of me "ridiculing and deriding" someone's handicapping ability?

Well, at least you did keep the thread alive.  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #70 on: September 06, 2012, 08:13:12 PM »

It's the one that came to mind. 

Note use of "doh" emoticon.   Cheesy 
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #71 on: September 06, 2012, 08:16:44 PM »

It's the one that came to mind. 

Note use of "doh" emoticon.   Cheesy 

Yeah whatever.
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