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Author Topic: AP Race Selections Friday 8/31  (Read 1422 times)
HorseVoice*
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« on: August 31, 2012, 02:38:59 PM »

Turf races only. The others are inconsequential.

R5) #3 Black Tulip has probably been facing better all spring and summer; use with #1, #5, #8

R6) #4 State is first-time U.S. and probably needs the Lasix or she wouldn't be back home so fast (bred in Ky.); use with #1, #11, #12

R8) I think Goldfine might have a nice turfer in #9 Global Alliance. Torres stays, a big plus. Use with #4 and #7

R9) Classic 0-2-X pattern* on the #6 Lookinatmindy, hoping for a big price. I don't like the horses that are likely to take money (#7, #9, #10), so I'm going for the Once In A Blue Moon trifecta by boxing the #3, #4, and #12 with the #6.



* "0-2-X pattern: 3rd race back is a "top" effort (or a return to previously established top number for the horse), this is the "0", or baseline race; 2nd race back is a couple of points slower than the top, not a terrible effort but more of a warning that the horse's form is starting to tail off, maybe...this is the "-2" race; last race back is a clunker, even a non-effort, confirming the "-2" in the previous race was indeed a warning...this is the "X" race.

This pattern has been discussed for 20 years: why does it work? There are dozens of theories that are plausible but can't really be proven or disproven. I think it's pretty simple: the "X" race is a giant wakeup call to the trainer that something is terribly wrong with his horse that just ran great a few races ago; he checks the animal out, finds the problem, and when the horse returns to the races he's ready to fire his best again. Meanwhile, the public is OFF the scent, because of the crappy last race...and because they think they know more than the trainer does!

This pattern is my BEST source of longshots, so even if it doesn't work today, keep an eye open for it. Works everywhere. 
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Yimmy
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2012, 02:44:07 PM »

The Cat/Joe Allen Eurofirster has an anchor around her neck... ME.  If she goes down, you may direct the blame my way.   Wink
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Stat
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2012, 02:45:05 PM »

OK  Been doing awful at AP,  Using your numbers.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2012, 02:53:57 PM »



"Ahh, the old Ellis Park shipper angle, eh, Smithers?"

"Uhh, yes, sir.

"EXCELLENT!"


(I actually did not know where Ellis Park WAS.   Cheesy Cheesy   You don't see too much of that out here.  And figuring out "PiD" was even more... educational.  Somehow I had the feeling that they hadn't named a track after pelvic inflammatory disease).
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2012, 02:55:32 PM »

The Cat/Joe Allen Eurofirster has an anchor around her neck... ME.  If she goes down, you may direct the blame my way.   Wink

I'm not worried.

I'm almost over not making more money on that toteboard buster you gave out last week at The Spa. Couple more weeks ought to do it.  Wink
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Yimmy
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2012, 03:00:53 PM »

TYVM, but west of the Ohio River, (and oftentimes east of it)  I defer to you.

You warned against outside closers at AP, but did I listen?  Angry Angry
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coldpunch
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2012, 03:14:26 PM »

isnt APs poly surface the same as brown grass?

it seems to me that horse who do well on real dirt perform poorly @ Arlington--same as Keeneland


do speed horses who prefer a 44 and change or faster half mile ever wire a field there?

i tried to observe the action there--but i cannot bet that track--mainly because of their version of Poly--which appears a little different than the Poly of Woodbine/Turfway/Keeneland and Del Mar
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Yimmy
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2012, 03:21:05 PM »

I don't know if it's a long-term trend (though from what HV has posted in the past I suspect it may be) but it seems as though outside ralliers on both AP tracks generally fade.  Lotsa grass steeds seem to win either on the engine or by splitting horses, though again, I defer to the real Chicago players, I confess my newbitude.  bowing
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2012, 03:24:01 PM »

I don't know if it's a long-term trend (though from what HV has posted in the past I suspect it may be) but it seems as though outside ralliers on both AP tracks generally fade.  Lotsa grass steeds seem to win either on the engine or by splitting horses, though again, I defer to the real Chicago players, I confess my newbitude.  bowing

That sweeping 4-wide move on the Arlington main track just ain't what is used to be at a place like Santa Anita when they had Pro-Ride.

Here, it makes for a tough trip to sustain, IMO. There, it gave you the surest winner in what seemed like 80% of the races.
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Round Table
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2012, 03:25:31 PM »

Ap Race 8

Fairly evenly matched field of horses except for GA.  Unusual situation, as this one is the class of the field at 10-1 ML and GAlliance is my ML favorite actually Grin

Except:
I have had 3 from 3 out of 155 horses resembling this one, in my database,
fail.    0 for 3 is the stat - 3 failures from 3, out of 155.   Maybe, this one will win and will break that trend.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2012, 03:46:30 PM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Yimmy
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2012, 03:28:53 PM »

That sweeping 4-wide move on the Arlington main track just ain't what is used to be at a place like Santa Anita when they had Pro-Ride.

Here, it makes for a tough trip to sustain, IMO. There, it gave you the surest winner in what seemed like 80% of the races.

This is clearly RLD's fault.  Terry?  Cheesy
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Round Table
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2012, 03:31:48 PM »

This is clearly RLD's fault.  Terry?  Cheesy

No fault.  Merely carelessness.
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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Yimmy
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2012, 03:33:59 PM »

I was being facetious.  Come on, 8675309... you better dan dat!

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Yimmy
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2012, 05:43:48 PM »

Good call, HV!

I must confess to some minor pique that parts of the race were actually VISIBLE and unobstructed by trees or shrubbery.  Can someone fire off a letter to RLD about this?

 Wink Smiley
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2012, 05:57:02 PM »

Good call, HV!

I must confess to some minor pique that parts of the race were actually VISIBLE and unobstructed by trees or shrubbery.  Can someone fire off a letter to RLD about this?

 Wink Smiley

When I complained about it, I believe Terry dismissed my complaint, saying my view couldn't be obstructed for more than 2 seconds. Anyone buying that?
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2012, 06:02:07 PM »

Good call, HV!

Thanks.

I'm a bit perturbed at myself for not pursuing the question "Why isn't RoHo riding the Eric Reed piece in race 5...and what is she doing riding that Lisa Merritt pig instead?" a lot further.

 doh

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Yimmy
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2012, 06:07:32 PM »

When I complained about it, I believe Terry dismissed my complaint, saying my view couldn't be obstructed for more than 2 seconds. Anyone buying that?

It's like Topiary Downs.  I thought the Spa and Blimpie were bad, but this is ridiculous.

Meanwhile, does anyone ever cut a fast, contested pace on the toif there?   Ye gods.  Is the track officially part of France?   doh  Harness horses would keep up in these turf races.
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Round Table
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« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2012, 07:08:32 PM »

Ap Race 8

Fairly evenly matched field of horses except for GA.  Unusual situation, as this one is the class of the field at 10-1 ML and GAlliance is my ML favorite actually Grin

Except:
I have had 3 from 3 out of 155 horses resembling this one, in my database,
fail.    0 for 3 is the stat - 3 failures from 3, out of 155.   Maybe, this one will win and will break that trend.

Man, that winner #4 really got pounded w/ late $$.  1 mtp 6-1 & settled at less than 7/2.   It's just another reason to completely ignore AP.
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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2012, 07:34:42 PM »

Man, that winner #4 really got pounded w/ late $$.  1 mtp 6-1 & settled at less than 7/2.   It's just another reason to completely ignore AP.

Make your own line for AP turf races and you will be less disappointed. Promise.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2012, 08:01:08 PM »

Trees:  9/5

Vegetation:  5/2

Obstruction:  7/2

Vast bushes:  9/2

Poor visibility:  6-1

Invisible furlong:  10-1
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coldpunch
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2012, 08:50:51 PM »

Trees:  9/5

Vegetation:  5/2

Obstruction:  7/2

Vast bushes:  9/2

Poor visibility:  6-1

Invisible furlong:  10-1



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Yimmy
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2012, 06:04:41 AM »

RLD should have a fan competition to determine what other obstructions can be placed on the infield:

a)  skyscraper;

b)  housing project;

c)  Mount McKinley;

d)  the Ozarks;

e)   John Travolta;

f)    the Black Forest;

g)   Switzerland;

h)   the pyramids.

 Wink

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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2012, 09:40:53 AM »

R9) Classic 0-2-X pattern* on the #6 Lookinatmindy, hoping for a big price.

This pattern has been discussed for 20 years: why does it [sometimes] work [and sometimes not]? There are dozens of theories that are plausible but can't really be proven or disproven [, and not even Jerry Brown or Len Ragozing can say.] I think it's pretty simple: [sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't].

There. Fixed that up for ya.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2012, 09:44:09 AM »

When I complained about it, I believe Terry dismissed my complaint, saying my view couldn't be obstructed for more than 2 seconds. Anyone buying that?

2 seconds per occurrence: once on the backstretch behind the lake, and once on the turn. One is always free to measure this himself with a stopwatch, of course. And while you're at it, do take note of lack of position changes during those brief interludes.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
honest & balanced terry
formerly plain old clockerterry
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« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2012, 10:02:35 AM »

This is clearly RLD's fault.  Terry?  Cheesy

You would need to ask HV about that. He's the one who blames RLD for every evil under the sun.

The fake surface itself is the fault of a rash of breakdowns on the old dirt track some years back. The change in the artificial surface over the years has no real explanation.

It used to be a nice fluffy light brown like Del Mar's. Now it is a dark color like asphalt, and just keeps getting darker every year. Does this mean they're replacing old worn out surface with some new darker blend, or does it mean they never replace material and the old stuff has just absorbed a bunch of dust and pollution over the years? And does that affect the running? Beats me.

Speaking of Del Mar's, it sure does seem predictable as long as the races have runners in them with actual pp's. The lightly raced maidens, though ... it's been bombs away. 
« Last Edit: September 01, 2012, 10:05:17 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
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