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Author Topic: arlington p9 & 6  (Read 563 times)
Trainer Rusty
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« on: August 12, 2012, 06:00:01 PM »

again these weren't hit.  big players concentrating on the coast tracks.  based on winners and 10 cent and $1 increments a big player should have taken these today.imo.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2012, 06:34:34 PM »

The racing isn't trustworthy here. Too many random results.
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amtino06
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2012, 06:45:17 PM »

The racing isn't trustworthy here. Too many random results.
Random Results?!?! What does this mean? Honestly, if you have some factual evidence or a direct example to prove that the racing isnt trustworthy at AP I will listen. But random hearsay and perception doesnt give you the right to bad mouth the integrity of this track. You are the last member on this board I would expect to toss out accusations with absolutely ZERO evidence.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2012, 07:34:22 PM »

Random Results?!?! What does this mean?

The results are obviously NOT random, or the percentage of winning favorites would not be so much the same as at every other track.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2012, 07:50:56 PM »

The results are obviously NOT random, or the percentage of winning favorites would not be so much the same as at every other track.

Too many random outcomes on an *individual* race by race basis, is what I meant...not that the "results as a whole" are totally random; that would be silly.

AP's fine tradition of numerous 6 and 7 horse fields is what keeps the percentage of winning favorites in line with the other tracks, IMO. If anything, AP's percentage of winning favorites *would* be even higher, if it weren't for the inherent strangeness the fake track injects into races on that surface.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2012, 08:08:33 PM »

You are the last member on this board I would expect to toss out accusations with absolutely ZERO evidence.

I have some bad news for you: when it comes to anything AP, I can be just as filthy, dirty and nasty as RLD. *** them.
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amtino06
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2012, 08:54:34 PM »

I have some bad news for you: when it comes to anything AP, I can be just as filthy, dirty and nasty as RLD. *** them.
That's old news, you've made that known. And I have no problem with your stance on RLD you are entitled to your opinion on ownership and you've made fair points in the past. But your comment implicates more than just RLD and I dont think it's appropriate without some evidence.
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Round Table
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2012, 08:59:05 PM »

Interesting question.

From a kind of small sample (N=25), The winner's odds at Ap are less likely to reflect      the ML handicapper's/racing secretary's odds      than the winner's odds vs. ML      at "all other tracks when combined".  By IMO a pretty large margin.

AP's racing secretary might have a harder time predicting closing winner's odds than racing secretaries do at other tracks.  

In other words, it's indicated, AP's racing secretary isn't able to predict winner's closing odds as well as racing secretaries do at other tracks.

Here's a question you can answer for yourselves:
Could it be due to the track/surface, or are there big differences between the abilities of individual racing secretaries?  Could it be due to the track/surface or is there a big difference between other racing secretaries and AP's racing secretary?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2012, 09:07:53 PM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2012, 09:09:09 PM »

Too many random outcomes on an *individual* race by race basis, is what I meant...not that the "results as a whole" are totally random; that would be silly.

The results as a whole are made up of all the individual races. How can there be an abnormal number of random outcomes on individual races and then have the whole come out pretty close to normal?

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AP's fine tradition of numerous 6 and 7 horse fields is what keeps the percentage of winning favorites in line with the other tracks, IMO.

Ah, of course. The random results of the "too many" individual races are somehow nullified back down to average by particularly anti-random races, in the form of small fields.

Yet, each and every year, the average field size at AP comes out pretty close to what it was at Hawthorne, as do the percentages of things like winning favorites, so go figure.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2012, 09:16:38 PM »

Here's a question you can answer for yourselves:
Could it be due to the track/surface, or are there big differences between the abilities of individual racing secretaries?  Could it be due to the track/surface or is there a big difference between other racing secretaries and AP's racing secretary?

I'm not sure if it's the racing secretary at AP who makes the morning line now (and I'd tend to doubt it), but a few years back, when Battaglia was doing the ML for AP, he was nailing it all the time. Wasn't that on the poly?

And I'm not sure I would use winner's odds vs. ML odds as the measure of whether or not a track is random. I would use the public's odds, as they and their money are the ones determining whether or not results are truly random.

We went through all this before, in some detail.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2012, 09:29:09 PM »

But your comment implicates more than just RLD and I dont think it's appropriate without some evidence.

Listen, after the shit RLD pulled with his CDI cohorts, effectively throwing the Illinois Derby under the bus, I don't give a fling about what is "appropriate" anymore when it comes to ANYTHING related to AP. Whatever ill will is pointed in that direction, RLD has earned every speck of it.

Evidence? Tricky stuff, so be careful: right now, I suspect everyone working at AP is an Al-Qaeda member, simply because I have no evidence to the contrary.
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Round Table
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2012, 09:36:57 PM »

Look I'll be fair.  It's a small sample but it could show that it's harder to predict or determine the winner's odds at AP, than it is at other tracks.  By the way, it is a small sample, but it is random.

Let me add that there doesn't seem to be a difference overall, but there might be a likely difference between AP and other tracks when it comes to predicting or determining what the winner's odds will be, according, at least, to how well the racing secretary is able to make a determination.

« Last Edit: August 12, 2012, 09:38:59 PM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2012, 10:04:58 PM »

Look I'll be fair.  It's a small sample but it could show that it's harder to predict or determine the winner's odds at AP, than it is at other tracks.  By the way, it is a small sample, but it is random.

Let me add that there doesn't seem to be a difference overall, but there might be a likely difference between AP and other tracks when it comes to predicting or determining what the winner's odds will be, according, at least, to how well the racing secretary is able to make a determination.

Well, like I said, how the public actually bets would be a better indication of whether or not poly race results are "random" like HV keeps claiming. We went through it all once before, with results from lots of different poly tracks including AP, and discovered there was very little difference in the overall betting public's ability to pick winners on poly vs. dirt.
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Round Table
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2012, 10:30:34 PM »

Probably, but at AP, there seems to be a problem determining or predicting ahead of time how much any winner, favorite or not, will pay.



« Last Edit: August 12, 2012, 10:35:51 PM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2012, 10:39:23 PM »

Probably, but at AP, there seems to be a problem determining or predicting ahead of time how much any winner, favorite or not, will pay.

From what you're describing that's an issue of the ML maker (assuming it's real), but you make your own line, do you not? So all you should be interested in is how the public is betting vs. your line, I would think. There's no money to be made in betting against the ML maker that I know of.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
Matchtown
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2012, 10:48:37 PM »

The Illinois Derby was junk them rats in there the last few years were stealing money......
The plug needed to be pulled on that lackluster over hyped $500,000 allowance race give that money to the Chicago owners and trainers who bust it out week after week............. RIP
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Round Table
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2012, 11:08:49 PM »

From what you're describing that's an issue of the ML maker (assuming it's real), but you make your own line, do you not? So all you should be interested in is how the public is betting vs. your line, I would think. There's no money to be made in betting against the ML maker that I know of.


Yep it might be.  There's just that something about AP, all right.  There are things about "whatever" at AP that make predicting "unimportant" things like odds difficult, at least for a professional handicapper like the racing secretary.

Either that, or the racing secretary is no good and should be replaced by someone who understands the weirdness of the track and who can put together a decent ML.

To be fair the sample I used was kind of small.

I won't argue whether the ML is important enough, or not, to be interested in.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2012, 11:11:43 PM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
honest & balanced terry
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silver-tongued track bum




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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2012, 11:25:41 PM »


Yep it might be.  There's just that something about AP, all right.  There are things about "whatever" at AP that make predicting "unimportant" things like odds difficult, at least for a professional handicapper like the racing secretary.

Once again I'll say I highly doubt it is the racing secretary doing that job, and once again I'll opine that whatever disconnect does exist between the ML and actual off odds has little to do with the subject here, whether or not the result of these races are "random". Random can only be measured again the bets that are actually made.

Now, if you want to claim there's a bad ML being made for AP, that's fine, and it would be nice to see your foundation on that, but it has little to do with the random results/unpredictability/whatever claim that HV initially made. The line maker might be surprised by how people actually bet the races compared to what he predicted, and you might be frustrated if you're counting on someone else's ML being accurate, but that's not what HV was talking about. At least I don't think so.
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Round Table
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2012, 06:51:29 AM »

Exactly.  I agree.  When you get right down to it, their very own "handicapper", whoever he is, can't figure the track.




« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 07:12:56 AM by Round Table » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2012, 07:59:49 AM »

The Illinois Derby was junk them rats in there the last few years were stealing money......
The plug needed to be pulled on that lackluster over hyped $500,000 allowance race give that money to the Chicago owners and trainers who bust it out week after week............. RIP

Perhaps, but you can say the exact same thing about 10 other Kentucky Derby preps: the Lexington is still in? The Derby Trial?   BSmeter

And if you went by which prep races were really over-hyped allowance races in the last few years (i.e., produced no significant TC runners), we could probably decommission *another* ten prep races.

Finally, racing press heavyweights Jay Privman and Steven Crist have both stated publicly that removing the Illinois Derby from the list of valid Ky Derby preps was simply a political move by CDI (i.e., RLD) to punish Hawthorne for battling AP over dates; if they can easily see it, why can't you?  I mean...is there ANY doubt? Huh
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