Joe Vann - 2011 IL Derby winner

[Chris Szulc]

In for 20K tomorrow Race 3 at Saratoga--- Zayat/Velazquez/Pletcher.

[faster horses]

Has he improved enough to win at that level?

[DaPaver]

Got to be the toughest 20 claimers I have seen , He should win by many or BD.

[Chris Szulc]

Off the board. Was there a bridge jumper??

[Chris Szulc]

No bridge jumper but they bet him in the win pool down to even money.

[amtino06]

Chris, do you mind doing a little writeup/blog so I can live vicariously through you this weekend at the Spa?

[hungry]

No bridge jumper but they bet him in the win pool down to even money.

He was 1-1 ML before scratches, so, after scratches the 'new' ML would have probably had him at 4-5.

When a horse like this goes off at even money, something smells rotten on the toteboard. Him being dead on the board turned out to be pretty accurate.

[HarnessFanDE]

He was 1-1 ML before scratches, so, after scratches the 'new' ML would have probably had him at 4-5.

When a horse like this goes off at even money, something smells rotten on the toteboard. Him being dead on the board turned out to be pretty accurate.

Thats the same thing they said about the Jacobsen horse yesterday (Saginaw) off the big drop and the layoff and only showing 3 slow 3 furlong works.....He was 8-5 ML and with 2 scratches he went off 5-2.....Everyone chanted he was dead and probably wouldnt finish and he won by 10.....Your theory works well in hindsight......But you have to bet before the race

[Chris Szulc]

Chris, do you mind doing a little writeup/blog so I can live vicariously through you this weekend at the Spa?

LOL I will try. I will try to take some pics and do a daily writeup. My bankroll was enhanced a bit today by the early pick4 at AP so I think I'll enjoy my trip 

[hungry]

Thats the same thing they said about the Jacobsen horse yesterday (Saginaw) off the big drop and the layoff and only showing 3 slow 3 furlong works.....He was 8-5 ML and with 2 scratches he went off 5-2.....Everyone chanted he was dead and probably wouldnt finish and he won by 10.....Your theory works well in hindsight......But you have to bet before the race

True, excellent call. That Jacobson horse was coming off a very 'shaky' performance and was back quick again, so, i think the bettors were leery of betting him down to even money even though they knew if he ran his best performance, he would be an easy winner.

When a horse like this pletcher horse today is 'cold' on the board, i get worried. Sure, you are right, it doesnt always work and sometimes the 'dead' horse will win, i think you just have to do the best you can at the time.

[amtino06]

LOL I will try. I will try to take some pics and do a daily writeup. My bankroll was enhanced a bit today by the early pick4 at AP so I think I'll enjoy my trip 

Sick! Keep it going out there, Good Luck!

[The Turf Monster]

One of my biggest handicapping weaknesses is that I'm not critical enough of class-droppers.  For every Joe Vann dropping to 20k and being lame, there's a trainer dropping for a score.  You make your money betting against the Joe Vanns.  I haven't looked at the results, but I'm sure the doubles paid well.   

[hungry]

One of my biggest handicapping weaknesses is that I'm not critical enough of class-droppers.  For every Joe Vann dropping to 20k and being lame, there's a trainer dropping for a score.  You make your money betting against the Joe Vanns.  I haven't looked at the results, but I'm sure the doubles paid well.   

If the dropper gets FT Fronts, beware. 

[journalstuff]

Made it the pick of the day but it lost!!!

[HarnessFanDE]

A wise man once told me that good trainers drop horses to win races and bad trainers drop horses for a reason.....That theory has served me well over the years......Very few droppers from low percentage barns win because its usually a health issue that makes them drop the horse......They arent sharp enough to drop one to win

[HarnessFanDE]

True, excellent call. That Jacobson horse was coming off a very 'shaky' performance and was back quick again, so, i think the bettors were leery of betting him down to even money even though they knew if he ran his best performance, he would be an easy winner.

When a horse like this pletcher horse today is 'cold' on the board, i get worried. Sure, you are right, it doesnt always work and sometimes the 'dead' horse will win, i think you just have to do the best you can at the time.

When I used to play really big money through the windows I always worried about the odds and have let the odds board (odds too high) talk me off so many winners that now I pretty much map out my plays by 12 o clock and change them for nothing unless I see a huge bias (which is another really overrated factor by a lot of handicappers......though they do exist.....I laugh when I see two short priced wire to wire winners win the double and all the expets run around saying you better have speed today).....often the conclusion of a big bias is too quickly come upon