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Author Topic: John Frank gives Taylor Madison a shot Wednesday.  (Read 2424 times)
John Frank
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« on: May 22, 2006, 08:47:01 PM »

That's right MIKE. Even though going Older and Open. That is if you put the BLINKS ON. Best of luck to all connections.
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our favorite omen
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2006, 08:55:48 AM »

In tough with a couple other speed types.  Must clear from the rail.  Iffy.
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Scav
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2006, 09:50:25 AM »

Big time iffy. She has ran her eyeballs out two times in a row. A play against in this spot I feel. This horse has so much potential but is completely mismanaged. She has the possibility to be a Grade 3 winner. There are plenty of minor stakes races for 40-50k that she can run in, especially specific to her age, but they decide, after a taxing effort that will be only 25 days ago, to run in an allowance optional claiming for 33k, and only getting THREE POUNDS. Get a clue Dini and stop running this horse into the ground and space the races out better. Have some confidence in your ability.
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our favorite omen
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2006, 10:21:13 AM »

Was Mike Dini an assistant for P. Noel Hickey at one time?  Also, maybe a former busboy at Fellini Rest. and Pizza in Mt. Prospect?
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First Samurai
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2006, 07:13:12 PM »

I think she's got enough of a shot that I will be there. First Samurai will look great next to her in the circle......LOL
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Stat
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2006, 07:15:38 PM »

Taylor, 3 year old against older, IL. bred running open, breaking from post 1.
Only two scenerios for winning.  Break on top and lead all the way.  Highly unlikely, speed from 3 and 6, and poor post.
Let 3 and 6 set speed duel, edge to their flank, and out close the closers.

5-2 Morning Line.
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Stat
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2006, 07:17:03 PM »

First Samuri is so short no one will see him in the winners circle.
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Exbourne
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2006, 10:51:08 PM »

John and Scav..

At her odds I would back off betting...The Bounce is gonna happen.. This race or the next.....
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I drink,I smoke,I gamble.
What a Life!!!
7/29/05.
our favorite omen
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2006, 07:48:25 AM »

For what it is worth, M. Scooty McMannis in the Sun Times has T.M. picked on top today.
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edwarren
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2006, 12:24:19 PM »

Big time iffy. She has ran her eyeballs out two times in a row. A play against in this spot I feel. This horse has so much potential but is completely mismanaged. She has the possibility to be a Grade 3 winner. There are plenty of minor stakes races for 40-50k that she can run in, especially specific to her age, but they decide, after a taxing effort that will be only 25 days ago, to run in an allowance optional claiming for 33k, and only getting THREE POUNDS. Get a clue Dini and stop running this horse into the ground and space the races out better. Have some confidence in your ability.

Young horses can come back quick.
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Scav
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2006, 03:20:35 PM »

IT IS EXACTLY the opposite. Younger horses react more off big efforts. She is a bet against for me today.
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edwarren
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2006, 03:50:32 PM »

Did I say to bet her? When I was young, I could play basketball all day, every day. Came back nice and easy. Can't do that now. Horses any different. Besides, 6 furlongs no problem for TM. I haven't seen the PPs so I won't decide her prospects. If she races better than her odds dictate, I'll say she did OK. How's that? Fair enough? I haven't seen the field and haven't time to look. Jeez.



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edwarren
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2006, 04:28:14 PM »

1 mtp she's chalk in the win pool and 6 is favored in the exacta.

0 mtp she's second in the wind pool and third in the exacta behind 3,6.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2006, 04:30:38 PM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
edwarren
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2006, 04:35:31 PM »

Looks like the exacta told the truth, she ran third.  Good handicapping. Hope you had the 4.
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robertv
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2006, 06:02:22 PM »

JF,

This result is fine for Taylor Madison, should set the filly up nicely
for the 75K Purple Violet Stakes (3yr old Ill.fillies) on 6/24, which is
the near-term objective.

Have a pleasant evening!
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John Frank
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2006, 07:33:26 PM »

I got news for you. IF BLINKS ARE ON . This filly will run a 1:08 4/5ths. Don't say I did not predict.
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nwaryas
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2006, 09:13:14 PM »

John Frank the Tout. Stop it with this horse. I know your the one that got a lap dance from Molly on Friday. John Frank got her fired.
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Scav
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« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2006, 09:50:16 AM »

Did I say to bet her? When I was young, I could play basketball all day, every day. Came back nice and easy. Can't do that now. Horses any different. Besides, 6 furlongs no problem for TM. I haven't seen the PPs so I won't decide her prospects. If she races better than her odds dictate, I'll say she did OK. How's that? Fair enough? I haven't seen the field and haven't time to look. Jeez.

Edwarren,

Not sure how indepth you are about horses or handicapping, but I can tell you have knowledge. This being said, your notion comparing young horses to young human beings is WAY off. I am a thorograph user so my lingo comes from that. Young horses that gradually move up, pairing numbers or gradual movement (less then 2.5 pts forward) are horses to watch out for. Horses that jump up more then 4 pts need to be given the proper time, regardless of what they are physically showing you. I didn't see Taylor's sheet but I know her last number had to be huge. I do not doubt her ability. She has outrun her breeding 50 fold, but I do doubt the handlers. This horse needs a break. 3 races at Tampa, 2(?) races at Hawthorne, and 1 race at Arlington, she is going to have 12-15 races this year, if this keeps up. You ever notice that good horses only run 7-9 times a year.

If this horse was managed correctly, they could have had a huge shot at the Grade 3 Chicago Breeder's Cup Handicap at 7 furlongs, June 17th. SERIOUS horses wouldn't have come for a race like that. It will be like the sad Hashin Cup this weekend, a 5 horse field, probably 4 horses with Fiften Rounds a possible scratch. She would have been getting more then 3lbs against her elders and with her speed would have been dangerous here, she would have been at least grade 3 placed, thus her breeding value through the roof.

So instead of targeting a 175k purse against 4-6 horses, they are going to target a 75k purse, against 10-12 horses(usual field size for Illinois Day)
« Last Edit: May 25, 2006, 09:52:44 AM by Scav » Report to moderator   Logged
our favorite omen
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« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2006, 09:54:05 AM »

Scav, I would have to agree with you on the handling of T.M.  Local owners who like to watch their horse run as much as possible.  Also, likes to tout his hosses at the local establishments serving adult beverages.
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Scav
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« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2006, 10:04:21 AM »

I just pulled up her thorograph sheet from the redboard room at TG. This horse has NO SHOT to win yesterday. I know Dini is a sheet reader but he is NUTS for running this horse back on only 25 days rest, after running a SEVEN point top. ESPECIALLY because FILLIES react more then gelding/colts. And if you guys remember, she was in the Albata(what has she done since that race, raced once, ran like crap) race which was grueling also. DINI, get a CLUE.

If I was you guys, I would play against this horse next time if he is running her on Illinois day. She bounced like a superball yesterday and she needs about 45-55 days off so she can fully recover off her last two.
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RunSuckerRun
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2006, 10:59:22 AM »

Scav wrote:
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I didn't see Taylor's sheet but I know her last number had to be huge.

Six point new top down to a 4^1.  Explosive looking line prior to that.

Quote
This horse needs a break. 3 races at Tampa, 2(?) races at Hawthorne, and 1 race at Arlington

Plus all the training and breaking last spring and summer.  Remarkable she held on as well as she did during the race.

Quote
If this horse was managed correctly, they could have had a huge shot at the Grade 3 Chicago Breeder's Cup Handicap at 7 furlongs, June 17th.


I don't know if this horse wants anything beyond 6f.  Even with three more weeks rest the stakes would have been asking a lot.  (IMO)

Quote
So instead of targeting a 175k purse against 4-6 horses, they are going to target a 75k purse, against 10-12 horses(usual field size for Illinois Day)

The IL filly sprint division is tough this year.  Bluesbdancing, Miss Classified, Pretty Jenny and maybe Original Spin will be in that race.  Tough place to earn a buck.

Quote
She bounced like a superball yesterday and she needs about 45-55 days off so she can fully recover off her last two.

I would disagree here.  She was beaten less than 2 lengths by a filly that consistantly throws around a 5.  Yes, her trip was good but I don't think that would discount the effort too much.  I'm guessing she regressed a couple points and if they turn her around again in 3 weeks we'll see the superball.

-RSR
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Scav
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« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2006, 12:22:51 PM »

RSR, nice to see you have some TG knowledge. I didn't see the TM race but I heard from a friend that she looked tired.

It is just drives me nuts when people run GOOD horses into the ground. This horse ran a great number last out, give her a friggin break. My understanding is that Dini reads the friggin sheets to, but he obviously doesn't believe in them, otherwise, he would have held her out until Illinois Day.

I personally think that she is a one turn horse, she can carry her speed around the 1 turn 1 mile Arlington surface, that I am sure of. She ran well down at Tampa going two turns, deeper surface, which leads me to believe she can go a mile.....I just wish they got someone that knew how to manage a horses career because she would be a grade 3 winner IMO.

We will see who draws into that race on June 17th...I guarantee she would have had a shot to run well in that race, for 100k more, Grade 3 label, against a smaller field then on Illinois Day. IF Orginal Spin does come back in that Illinois day race, TM will get dusted by her

 
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RunSuckerRun
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« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2006, 05:14:26 PM »

Scav writes:
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I didn't see the TM race but I heard from a friend that she looked tired.


I was by the paddock.  She looked OK.  Definitely not bouncing around like before the April race but I didn't see any negative signs.

Quote
My understanding is that Dini reads the friggin sheets to, but he obviously doesn't believe in them

To paraphrase Wesley Snipes from White Men Can't Jump, "You listen to Jimmy Hendrix, but you don't hear Jimmy Hendrix."

-RSR
« Last Edit: May 25, 2006, 08:05:27 PM by RunSuckerRun » Report to moderator   Logged
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