Maywood Park - Race Card Analysis
Friday, May 11, 2012
(Program odds in parentheses)
8 - WES MANTOOTH (15/1)
In a race in which a few horses might seek the lead, things could set up perfectly for this guy. Snapped off a 28.0 last quarter last week to finish a close fourth last week. With live cover and hot pace, he has a shot to pick up the pieces. Wins his share of races. Price will be right.
1 - M M WEST (5/2)
Makes debut for new barn. Always a factor at this level. Should be right there with rail and his good early speed.
4 - KB'S TAYLOR (6/1)
Been showing speed at BMP and coming up short. Looks to be a good fit here. Has had success on this oval in the past. Roberts likely to blast out from here and could be tough to catch.
2 - WOODY'S SHARK BITE (10/1)
Loaded with speed and should get to the front from this spot. Does not win often, but is more than capable of hitting the board for tonight's new driver.
7 - RIO'S Z TAM (3/1)
Racing very well since joining the Warren barn. Tough post and pretty rugged group of four claimers to deal with here. But, with a decent trip, this one can contend.
5 - THE JANITOR (4/1)
Another that does best work on or near the lead. In a tough spot with speed inside. Might be looking at a tough trip.
3 - MASTER JEEVES (12/1)
Finished a close fourth last time out. Recent form on the mediocre side, but most of his races were against a little bit better. Hard to completely rule out.
6 - OUR SECOND CHANCE (8/1)
Benefitted from a rail trip and almost pulled off the upset last week. Will have to work much harder from out here. Outsider.
2 - DAN LOWE (5/2) ***Winner: $3.20 $2.20 $2.10 ***
In a good spot for his Maywood debut. Raced well against a monster last time out at BMP. No monsters in here. Has a great shot to pick up his first victory.
5 - SNIPPY BINK (6/1)
Liked him last week, but he had trouble staying flat. Did well to finish third. Loses Oosting, but gets the capable Marcus Miller instead. Maybe he can mind his manners and graduate tonight.
8 - MURVEY LEO (12/1)
This guy caught my eye, making a nice move before flattening out, last time he raced. Might have some talent here, but the post will be tough to overcome.
3 - NJ'S GO JOHNNY GO (4/1)
Raced very well last week and just missed. Winless in 15 starts, but is in form and figures to be part of this.
1 - CJ'S REAL DEAL (3/1)
Winless in 13 starts. Should be in line for a good trip with the rail. Can hang around for a piece.
7 - FRONTIER SCOUT (8/1)
Gets close at times, but has work to do from out here. Strictly an outsider.
4 - JACK N WATER (15/1)
Was far back and never contended last week. Need to see some sign of life before backing.
6 - TRIGGERHAPPY HERO (10/1)
Finished far back in last three. Tough spot from here. Needs to show more.
8 - LOOKER HOTSPUR (12/1)
Faces much easier after holding her own with some toughies. Driver change to Roberts also a plus. Post is the only negative. She blew up the board back on 3/29, perhaps she can do it again.
7 - MISS KELLEY LYNNE (15/1)
Question mark. Last raced at Freehold back in March. She did race well here earlier in the year and has five lifetime wins in ten starts on this track. Cannot rule out. Watch tote for hints.
2 - COLE STAR (3/1)
Never quite got in position last week. Should be closer from here and can do with a well-timed move. Major contender.
6 - PICKAPLACETOPARK (9/2)
Form arrow appears to be pointing up for this one. Raced well last week and finished second to a tough winner. With cover, she can be right there.
5 - SPORTAMANTE (7/2)
Form seems to be going south after a nice win three starts back. Disappointed as fave last week. Needs to bring more.
4 - FOX VALLEY KATRINA (15/1)
Sheds eight post and should be much more competitive from this spot. Rarely wins. Gimmick hope.
1 - DELIGHTFUL DOT (6/1)
Rarely wins. Gets close at times. Rail keeps her in contention.
3 - JANET ROSE (12/1)
Dull form. Pass for now.
9 - WINDY CITY DIANE (8/1)
Recent form sort of lackluster. Rarely wins. Pass.
7 - HARRIET POTTER (6/1)
Speedball from the outside has a shot to get to the top. Wins her share of races. Trainer and driver both with solid credentials. Like her at a price.
1 - MACKENZIE'S POWER (5/2)
Won the last time she had the rail. Should get the good trip again. Major contender.
2 - MS KATE (4/1)
Was never in contention last week from the seven hole. Move inside and switch to Oosting are huge. Should be right in the mix.
3 - RIVER TSUNAMI (12/1)
Does not win often, but she did show some life last week and now gets Carpenter at the controls instead of Jerry Brown. Figures to be competitive and is gimmick worthy.
5 - STAR GAZED (8/1)
Did not have much last time out. Typically a big factor with these. Perhaps a more aggressive drive can re-ignite the spark. Outsider.
4 - MY GIRL LORA (15/1)
Has not been close in some time. Better post tonight, but needs to show more.
6 - ZZZT (3/1)
Form arrow pointing south, moves outside and loses Oosting. None of this is good. I'll pass.
8 - STARRS FLASHY BABE (15/1)
Rarely wins and will be hard pressed to make any sort of impact from way out here. Pass.
9 - INNOVATION (7/2) ***Winner: $4.80 $3.80 $2.60 ***
Looked like he was going to roll by them all in the lane before losing stride. An eye catching effort for sure. Oosting returns and with improved position, this one looks to be on the brink of his first victory of the year.
6 - CLASSIFIED INFO (10/1)
Showed high speed last week before tiring. Faces tougher, but that was a very suggestive race. Should blast out and will be tough to collar.
7 - INCREDIBLE ITEM (12/1)
Has shown signs in his last two races. Made a move last week before flattening out. If he can get the right trip, he figures in here.
2 - BELL VALLEY BILL (3/1)
Trying hard to get the overdue victory. Raced big last week, parked out, and was close at the wire. Should be up close and in contention again. Has shot.
8 - KB'S ROBBY (6/1)
Speed horse appears to be tailing off. Will likely make his presence felt early, but will need more stamina to hit the board.
1 - DONALD HIMSELF (4/1)
Could not get it done with rail last week. Not too enthusiastic about his chances here.
3 - RIVER OF FAITH (8/1)
Burned me when he went off stride before the start last week. Prior races were suggestive, but my faith is shaken here. Watch for now.
4 - LITTLE FISHY (15/1)
Form is dismal. Overmatched. Pass.
5 - BEN'S JD (15/1)
Stomped on by cheaper almost a month ago. Hard to like here.
7 - TOO SPORTY FOR YOU (6/1)
Was in over his head last time and broke stride. Prior races were all solid. Fits well against these. Likes to roll late. With any kind of position, he's a player here.
5 - GYPSY LEATHER (12/1)
Broke before the start last time at BMP. Switches to Oosting tonight. Was showing some signs in prior races. With a flat mile, this guy could pop at a price.
8 - CAGE FIGHTER (10/1)
Intriguing sort looks like he fits. Lines littered with trainer changes as he has bounced around between HOP and BMP. Kept some good company and shows speed in lines. Might gun to the top and be too good for these. Watch tote.
1 - LITTLE RICKY (5/2)
Impressive win in his 2012 debut last week. Made a bold move to the top and held firm. Steps up, but the rail helps. Shot to win right back.
4 - YANKEE DOODLE JIM (3/1)
Makes 2012 debut. Raced against some tough two year olds last year. Qualifiers look okay. Might needs a start.
2 - HUGGY BEAR (4/1)
Finished far back last week. Will try to mix it up early, but needs more stamina.
3 - JD'S LAW (15/1)
Leaves the claiming ranks and looks overmatched. Pass.
6 - PARK'S FINALE (8/1)
Has not been all that close in recent races. Hard to like. Pass.
7 - VENTURA HIGHWAY (10/1)
Liked him last week, but he was no match for the winner. Willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. This one has had success at this track. Can blast for the lead, or pick up live cover. Either way, he figures.
5 - HURRICANE JOHN (8/1)
Had a tough trip last time from the second tier. Should get some live cover here and has to be considered a major contender.
1 - NO GIN (7/2)
Fits well with shift to the rail and top driver. Will be in the mix.
4 - CHARLIE RUSSELL (9/2)
Fits well with these. Has raced well for Roberts in last two. Not sure of the trip. Might have to come first up. Not impossible.
3 - CELTIC SEELSTER (3/1)
Speedball faded to fourth last time out. Will need to find more stamina.
2 - SHASKA (6/1)
Dull form. Rarely wins. Pass.
6 - RICH N SPORTY (12/1)
Poor form. Need to see something before backing.
8 - MASTERS CHAMPION (15/1)
Dull form. Tough spot. Pass.
9 - CRIPPLECREEK FOX (15/1)
Has not been close in seven tries this year. Pass.
7 - FOX VALLEY TOCCOA (8/5) *** Winner $3.00 $2.10 $2.10; 7-5 Exacta: $4.60 ***
Stands out like a sore thumb against this weak field. Been facing much tougher at BMP. Drops to claimers. Races for solid connections. Has speed and should crush this field. Would love to get 8/5. Starts the Pick 3.
5 - PARK BUG (7/2)
Recovered from early miscue to finish a distant second. Driver change to Oosting significant. Second best here.
8 - SHUDABOUGHTAZEBRA (15/1)
Raced fairly well last time out in a start he figured to need. No surprise to see him hit the board.
6 - LEVI THUNDER THUNG (9/2)
Has not won in forever. Gets close at times. Maybe use underneath.
2 - FIRE FOOT (8/1)
Gets much better post tonight, but has not been close lately. Rarely wins. Pass.
1 - CAPTAIN HOGG (12/1)
Has not been competitive. Pass.
3 - WESTERN BEAR (10/1)
Finished far back last time. Need to see something positive before considering.
4 - AIRY HEIR (15/1)
Has not shown a thing in last several races, finishing far back. Pass.
3 - MISCHIEF MAN (5/2) *** Winner: $4.40 $3.20 $2.20 ***
Switches to Oosting, who has done very well with this one. Is rounding into top form and is the one to beat in here.
4 - LAZY LIZARD (9/5)
Another in top form that likes to win. Might gun for the top and prove tough to catch.
6 - PICASSOS BOY (9/2)
Caught my eye last week as he had some late pace with nowhere to go. With a clean trip, things could set up well for this guy. Contender.
7 - MAKE IT WORK (12/1)
Been facing some toughies at HOP and BMP. Won the last time he raced here. Fits against this group. Shows speed and will probably blast from here and hope for the best. Not out of the question.
1 - JUDSON DIRECTOR (8/1)
Finished up well last week and grabbed third place honors. Won the last time he had the rail. Should be in contention throughout.
5 - FIVE COUGARS A (6/1)
Had some issues last week and did not finish. Speed inside of him could make for another eventful journey. Not completely out of the question, but will need best.
2 - TURN IT UP LOUD (10/1)
Has not been all that close last two races at this level. Need to see more before considering.
6 - MELODIE HOTSPUR (6/1)
Returns from BMP, where she took on much tougher. Raced well last time Leonard was in the bike. Good spot to pick up first victory of 2012.
5 - PLACE'N FIRST (9/2)
Was most impressive winning from the eight post in last. Has four wins, two seconds in six starts at this track in 2012. Takes on tougher, but she might be good enough to handle the hike.
7 - KENNANS NANCY LEE (7/2)
Dips in class tonight and switches to Marcus. Has had a lot of success on this oval with 10 lifetime wins here. Not sure of the tactics, but will make presence felt one way or another. Contender.
3 - NOTJUSTAPRETTYFACE (3/1)
Impressive winner against softer last week. Will likely need a bigger effort to repeat.
4 - LITTLE SWEETHEART (8/1)
Drops to a more competitive spot here. Was too far back last week. Should have much better position tonight. Can hit the board with the right trip.
1 - FANCY TOO (10/1)
Was not much of a factor last time out. Rail should keep her close. Gimmick possibility.
8 - THEDAYYOUHAVEMADE (15/1)
In decent form, but the eight post and switch from top driver could make for a long night. Pass.
2 - MOOCHIESMONEYMAKER (12/1)
Has not threatened last two starts at this level. Needs to show more.
9 - WOLF CREEK VIXEN (15/1)
Never threatened last time out. Needs to show more.
4 - PAPA BRIAN (10/1) *** Winner: $5.20 $3.40 $2.40; 4-6 Exacta: $18.00; 4-6-7 Trifecta: $59.60 ***
Better post tonight and Warren returns. Excuses in last three. Might get to the front in decent shape from here. Looks like a solid contender at a price.
6 - ZELLER'S ISLAND (3/1)
Caught my eye after a big race last week. Made a bold move, fought hard all the way to the wire and just missed. Another effort like that will make this guy tough to beat.
7 - ANOTHER BEAUTY (2/1)
Road trouble cost him last week. Not seeing an easy trip from out here, however. Has hit the board in 10 of 12 starts this year. Hard to rule out.
8 - SOME OR LIS (6/1)
Still waiting to see something, anything out of this one. All five of his races this year have been dull. Keep thinking top trainer will right the ship here, but I need to see a spark before investing.
1 - WESTERN DEAL (12/1)
Road trouble last week from the seven post. With the rail, this guy should have a much easier trip. Shot to hit the board for the first time this year.
5 - JOEZEHRLOVESJOHNNY (8/1)
Showed a little something last week after a string of dismal efforts. Maybe he's coming into a race here. Gimmick possibility.
2 - NDIZANI A (4/1)
Raced inside last week to finish fourth. Will probably stay inside again here and could sneak in to the tri.
3 - I'M BLUE TOO (15/1)
Has breaking issues. Hard to trust. Pass.
8 - DELCO WILLOBEE (4/1)
Raced very well against better in a needed start. Shows speed in his lines and should be able to find a good early spot. Look for class to show here.
1 - DADE HALL (9/2)
Flew down the lane like a runaway train last week to just miss at huge odds. Figures to have better striking position here. Has big chance.
2 - COLEFEDERATE (3/1)
Might be on the engine from here. Has been razor sharp for weeks. Will be in the mix and is hard to leave out of the gimmicks.
9 - CINNAMON SPIDER (12/1)
What to do with the Spider?? Thought he was in a good spot last week, but was a judges scratch. Had been showing signs of coming into a race. He fits again and has a shot if ready to roll.
3 - SLEAZY MR E (7/2)
Returns from BMP, where he lost to cheaper. Has speed to burn and will be involved in the early pace. Has hit the board in 9 of 11 tries this year, mostly against easier. Might hang around for a piece of the Super.
5 - BRING THE RAIN (8/1)
Second best to the Ice Man last time out. Looks to be in decent form, but will need to pick up his game to be a part of this.
6 - AT MAX SPEED (15/1)
Has not had a good post in a while. Appears to fit at this level, but needs to show more before we can use.
4 - LARRY'S PLACE (15/1)
Takes on tougher tonight. Needs more.
7 - SPORTY LEVI (12/1)
Looks a bit overmatched. Tough spot from out here. Pass for now.
7 - POLAR BEAR (3/1)
Looks the best in here despite the outside post. Has the speed, class and overall credentials to get the job done. Will be tough to beat.
1 - SAMEASITEVERWAS (4/1)
Has been off form, but takes on easier and draws the rail. Will use his speed here and has a great chance to wire these and pick up his first win of the year.
2 - NATURAL LAD N (6/1)
Another with early foot that should find himself with good position. Has a legit chance to hit the board, if not win it all.
8 - SPIRITUAL KING N (12/1)
Has been going some unbelievable miles. Raced without cover two races in a row, battled all the way around the track. Things don't figure to get any easier tonight, but this gutsy guy can't be ruled out.
3 - PRIME ESCAPE (5/2)
Been facing tougher at BMP. These are easier, but his form looks pretty dismal. Might be a wake up spot, but I'm a little leery.
4 - AMERICAN LEASE (10/1)
Crushed a weak field last time out. Takes on tougher, but is in form. Early move expected. Always respect Oosting.
5 - LETSGETREADYTRUMBL (15/1)
Disappointing effort last time out against cheaper. Needs to show more before I can pick him again.
6 - FOX VALLEY LIBERO (8/1)
Returns from HOP, where he competed against tougher. Rarely wins, but could grab a piece of this. Has had success on this track in the past.
9 - KEITHER (7/2)
Flashed a move last week before flattening out. Should be in decent position from the second tier. Well-timed move could get the job done.
1 - MY SECRET WEAPON (12/1)
Horse, driver and trainer looking for their first win of the year. Might be in a good spot to get it. Fits well against these and the rail helps cause. Has shot.
5 - SIXXPAK (3/1)
Made a bold move and held on for the win last week. Similar effort could produce similar result. Solid contender off last race.
2 - MOSES HANOVER (4/1)
Disappointed as the fave last week. Looks to rebound with early move. Should be in the mix.
6 - CAPTAIN RICE (10/1)
Eye catching stretch run last week. Was gobbling up ground to just miss at big odds. Warrants gimmick consideration after that effort.
8 - HANNIBAL HUDSON (8/1)
Won the last time he had the eight post, so this is not impossible. Might blast for the lead and hope for the best. Outside chance.
7 - MIKE LANIGAN (6/1)
Draws poorly and appears to be tailing off some. Oosting stuck with him, so he probably needs to be included in the gimmicks.
3 - SAMMOBRAND WILLOW (15/1)
Showed a little spark last week with an improved effort. Might be rounding into form. Consider for the High-Five.
4 - LEON'S GAMBIT (15/1)
Has not been competitive in recent races. Impossible to use.
INNOVATION (5th race)
FOX VALLEY TOCCOA (8th race)
DELCO WILLOBEE (12th race)
POLAR BEAR (13th race)
WES MANTOOTH (1st race)
TOO SPORTY FOR YOU (6th race)
MELODIE HOTSPUR (10th race)
PAPA BRIAN (11th race)